Pakistan’s War Against Extremists; Tactics And Strategies

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Context

25-01-2014_Pak ArmyThe previous brief focused more on the regional and global dynamics around Pakistan’s intent to conduct surgical operations against the Taliban (TTP). This issue brief covers the evolution of Pakistan’s tactics and strategies against the extremists. Moreover, the referenced articles look at the targeting patterns and tactics used by the Taliban during its previous high profile attacks.

As Pakistan moves toward targeted operations against TTP, a number of critical questions are raised:

  • On the other side of the border, Karzai is increasingly seeking peace talks and has linked the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US on this. In such an environment, how will Pakistan’s military operations fit in the larger picture?
  • Furthermore, as Pakistan exerts military pressure on TTP, will they shift to Afghanistan, as occurred in Swat and other operations in the past, or will they hide with in Pakistan cities and other tribal agencies? And in this context, how will this operation be different than the past ones?
  • If Taliban do shift to Afghanistan, will the country act against them, or will the border regions become a refuge for TTP, as FATA has become for Afghan Taliban factions? This is already the case in Nuristan and Kunar provinces where the Taliban moved after the Swat operation, and from where they conduct activities in the settled areas of Pakistan.
  • Is Pakistan seeking a serious push against TTP or just maneuvering to pressure and solicit peace talks? Will Pakistan also incorporate action against other allied extremist groups? If not, how will these groups and Afghan Taliban react to pressure on TTP?
  • What will be the impact of the operation on US-Pakistan ties and the strategic dialogue beginning today in Washington?

Analysis

The attempt here is to develop a long-term perspective as oppose to a snapshot view. See below a list of in-depth analyses providing a multidimensional longitudinal outlook that helps in developing a holistic approach.

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Geopolitical Situation – Vantage Point Analysis

The Connection Between Afghan Settlement, TTP, And Middle East – Jun 24, 2013
Transformation of Al Qaeda And Islamic Maghreb – Jan 21, 2013
Afghan Reconciliation And The Perilous Outlook For TTP – Dec 24, 2012
Mounting Concerns Regarding Afghanistan’s Regional Motives – Nov 23, 2012
The AfPak Vision And North Waziristan Operation – Aug 27, 2012
The Potential Nationalist-Conservative Alliance In Pakistan – Jan 29, 2012
Implications Of The New Extremist Alliances: Shura-e-Murakeba and Pakistan Defense Council – Jan 04, 2012
NATO Mohmand Attack and Bonn Conference – Part II – Dec 05, 2011
The Search for A Political Solution in Afghanistan and Mohmand Tragedy – Part 1 – Nov 28, 2011
Afghanistan-India Strategic Deal And Haqqani Network – Oct 06, 2011
FATA Situation – Status Report, April 2011 – Apr 30, 2011
The Attacks On Mowlana Fazlur Rehman, Chaos Of Afghanistan And Uprisings in Middle East – Apr 08, 2011
The Fragmentation of Terrorist machine The Times Square Attack and Killing of Former ISI Official – Nov 30, 2010
The Status of North Waziristan Operation and Taliban Contingency Plans -Haqqani Network, Kurram Agency and Iran – Oct 30, 2010
Status of the Taliban Insurgency in Kurram Agency – Sep 24, 2010
Regional and Global Threats from Lashkar-e-Tayyaba – Sep 16, 2010
The Status of Insurgency in Orakzai Agency of FATA – Sep 08, 2010
Pakistan’s Operations in Khyber and Orakzai Agency – Sep 07, 2010
Mohmand Attack – Harbinger of Taliban Comeback – Jul 13, 2010
Two Former ISI Officials go missing in North Waziristan – Apr 26, 2010
TTP Attack on US Consulate Peshawar Examination of the Security Preparedness and Terrorist Tactics and Message – Apr 10, 2010
As the Waziristan Operation Begins, Baluchistan Situation Worsens – Oct 19, 2009
The Impending Waziristan Operation and What it Means for Increasing US and Pakistan Cooperation – Oct 12, 2009
The Emerging Geopolitics The Suicide Bombing in Peshawar -The Revenge Attacks Begins – Sep 29, 2009
The Post-Baitullah Environment – Aug 25, 2009
The Multiple Implications of Baitullah’s Demise – Aug 12, 2009
Status Report – Operation Waziristan and the Regional and Global Environment The US, China and Russian Relationship – Nov 30, 1999
The Major Pakistan Mountain Passes and Success in the Swat Operation – May 23, 2009
What to Make of Swat Operation – May 12, 2009

Geopolitical Situation – Analysis of Perception and Perspective

The Mysterious Killings Of Hakimullah Mehsud And Nasiruddin Haqqani – Nov 19, 2013
The Security, Economic Calculus Of Pakistan’s New Government – Jun 04, 2013
Afghan Reconciliation, War On Terror And Future Politics of Pakistan – Jan 14, 2013
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Tehreek-e-Insaf And Waziristan – Aug 14, 2012
Understanding the Institutional Tussles In Middle East, Pakistan – Jul 17, 2012
Court Martial Trial of Brigadier Ali Khan And Radicalization Of Pakistan Army – Mar 05, 2012
The Memogate, Ambassador Husain Haqqani And Afghan Reconciliation – Nov 27, 2011
Haqqani Network, The Future Of Afghan Conflict And US-Pakistan Relations – Sep 25, 2011
Drone Attack in North Waziristan Sparks Another Controversy – Mar 17, 2011
The Case of Raymond Davis And US-Pakistan Relations – The Evolution Of Political And Tactical Strategies Related To The War On Terror – Feb 21, 2011
The Significance of the Surge in Drone Strikes in Pakistan – Sep 15, 2010
Taliban Link Terrorist Attacks to Drone Strikes in Pakistan – Sep 07, 2010
The Donor Conference and the Politics of Aid for Afghanistan – Jul 20, 2010
Regi’s Death and Misperception About Jundallah A Nationalist or a Separatist Movement? – Jul 07, 2010
The Intelligence Wars get Ugly as Threat Perceptions Diverge – Implications of the December 30th Attack on the CIA Base in Khost and Terrorism 2.0 – Jan 13, 2010
Pakistan Asks Who Wants to Weaken It, As Deadly Extremist Revenge Attacks Spread and Multiply – Oct 17, 2009
The Message of Taliban Reprisals, Including the One on the Pakistani Army’s GHQ; Regional Rivalries Escalate – Oct 12, 2009
Suicide Attack on the World Food Program (WFP) Office in Islamabad And The Imminent Waziristan Operation – Oct 05, 2009
The Suicide Attack on the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar – A Lesson in the Battle Of Public Perceptions – Jun 14, 2010
The Politics of the Drone Attacks in Pakistan – Its Domestic, Regional and Global Ramifications – May 06, 2009

Global Security Studies

Why Pakistan Needs To Manage Its National Strategic Narrative – Nov 12, 2013
Pakistan’s National Security Policy: What Can Be Done? – Aug 13, 2013
The Correlation Between Pakistan’s Threat Perception And Regional Economics – Jan 29, 2013
Pakistan’s Strategy After Malala Incident – Oct 16, 2012
The Perceptions Of Ethnic Cleansing In Pakistan – Aug 20, 2012
To Talk Or To Fight In Afghanistan – Mar 19, 2012
The Resurgence Of Moderate Islamists – Jan 09, 2012
The Evolution In The Threat Perceptions Of Middle East And South Asia Since 9/11 – Dec 04, 2011
Managing Unrest – Leading From The Edge of Chaos – Oct 23, 2011
The Enemy and the Role of Media in Pakistan – Aug 01, 2010
The Attack on the ISI Office in Peshawar, the Evolution of Terrorist Tactics and the Implications for Pakistan’s Future – Nov 19, 2009

Risk Assessment – Entropy Alert

Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Strategy And Emerging Threats – Sep 16, 2013
Can TTP Threats Impact Elections In Pakistan And Regional Dynamics? – Apr 11, 2013
Pakistan’s Threat Perception, Drone Strikes, And LOC Attacks – Jan 09, 2013
Another Attack In Kabul, US Threatens Afghan-US Raids In FATA – Jun 24, 2012
US Likely to Repeat a Unilateral Raid in Pakistan – Jul 02, 2011
US Moves Deeper in to Pakistan, From Drone Attacks to Boots on the Ground – May 04, 2011
Centrifugal Forces Escalating in Pakistan and Settling along Ethnic Lines! – Oct 21, 2010
The Failed Car Bombing in Times Square New York and The Imminent North Waziristan Operation – May 05, 2010
Warning of a Potential Taliban Attack in India – Dec 29, 2009
The Waziristan Operation and the Arab-Persian Proxy War in Yemen – Oct 16, 2009
Conflicting Strategies of Allies towards Waziristan – Jun 30, 2009

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