Risk Assessments
More Risk Assessments
President Trump’s Jerusalem Decision And Winning The Fight Against Extremism
A media discussion on a VOA Urdu Program Jahan Rang hosted by Behjat Gilani on December 10, 2017. The Panel included:
Arif Ansar, Chief Analyst,...
Understanding The Change in America – How To Make America Great Again?
Context
In the increasing global volatility, US had come to symbolize stability and continuity. However, the election of Donald Trump signifies this would no longer...
American Elections: Trump’s Dangerous Foreign Policy Outlook
Context
by Dr Claude Rakisits
Following Senator Ted Cruz’s much expected defeat of Donald Trump in the 5 April Wisconsin primary, Trump’s goal of winning the...
Al Qaeda And The Interplay Of Extremist Groups In Yemen
Context
By Adam Patterson
Despite the fact that al-Qaeda is responsible for the deadliest attack on U.S. soil, and that dismantling the terror apparatus was Washington’s...
The State Of Terror In Pakistan
Context
By Dr Claude Rakisits
The four-month old military operation in North Waziristan - Operation Zarb-e-Azb - and the smaller, more recent one in the Khyber...
What Will Determine The Future Direction Of US-Pakistan Ties?
Context
The settling in of the Modi government in India, and installation of a unity set up in Afghanistan, represents the beginning of a new...
What to Expect Next In Gaza Crisis; Risks For Israel, Region
Context
The present schism in the region and Iran’s engagement in nuclear talks with the West, allows Israel the opportunity to act without liability against...
The Risks Of Political Impasse In Afghanistan And Pakistan’s Operation In N Waziristan
Context
The delay in signing of the US-Afghan bilateral security agreement now appears to be accompanied by another imbroglio. Not only is there no security...
Framing And Dealing With Future Challenges
Context
The fast pace of scientific and technological breakthroughs has enabled mankind to surmount many serious obstacles of the day, be it in the domain...
Ukraine; Spheres Of Influence, State Sovereignty And Non-Intervention
Context
The case presented by the Russians for intervention in Ukraine is as convincing as that by the West for why it should not have...
Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Strategy And Emerging Threats
Context
About a week ago, without the usual international attention, Pakistan miraculously achieved a milestone that has proved to be elusive since the war against...
Strike On Syria; The Day After And Non State Actors
Context
Quite a bit of discussion has already taken place on the magnitude and the type of strike to conduct in Syria and the legal...
Inter-Radical Conflict Looming In Syria: The End Of War On Terror?
Context
The Syrian crisis had many tangents from the get go. It was never going to be like Iraq and Libya. For one, Syria is...
Can TTP Threats Impact Elections In Pakistan And Regional Dynamics?
Context
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) recently issued a threat to the three main political parties of Pakistan, warning them that their candidates will be targeted in...
Far-Flung Repercussions Of Algerian Gas Field Attack
Context
Al Qaeda-linked extremists carried out a deadly attack against the Algerian Amenas gas field on January 16. Reportedly, the strike was conducted in retaliation...
Pakistan’s Threat Perception, Drone Strikes, And LOC Attacks
Context
Without a doubt, Pakistan is entering a precariously delicate stage. On the surface, relations with India and US have stabilized, and Afghan reconciliation is...
Syrian Chemical Weapons; Regional And Global Worries
Context
As more territory moves under the control of opposition forces in Syria, western intelligence sources are projecting the fall of Assad government is quickly...
Possible Change In US Strategy And Israeli Strike On Iran
Context
The debate continues about Israel’s intent and readiness to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the nations apocalyptic response if that was to occur. The...
Another Attack In Kabul, US Threatens Afghan-US Raids In FATA
Context
The US and NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen John Allen have blamed Taliban-linked Haqqani group for the deadly attack on a resort in Kabul...
Resumption Of NATO Afghan Supply Lines, Implications For Pakistan
Context
US-Pakistan relations are entering an especially peculiar period, depending on the course taken, the consequences could be quite significant. As a result of the...
After Quran Burning, NATO Afghan Posture Becoming Untenable
Context
The NATO and US exit strategy is in trouble after the recent Quran burning incident in Afghanistan. The trust deficit between the Afghan security...
As NATO Plans To Push In Eastern Afghanistan Gen Kayani Authorizes Troops To Return...
Context
In the aftermath of the NATO attack on Pakistan’s check post in Mohmand Agency on November 26th, the country protested strongly claiming it was...
The Dangers Of A European Spring
Context
This alert examines the possibility of a European Spring. There are similarities and differences between the dynamics of Europe and the Arab world. However,...
US Likely to Repeat a Unilateral Raid in Pakistan
Context
Realizing that time is not on his side, with economic worries escalating in the US and Europe, and an election year approaching, US President...
US Moves Deeper in to Pakistan, From Drone Attacks to Boots on the Ground
PoliTact has been covering various aspects of the asymmetric warfare being carried out in the Af-Pak Theater of operations. During the Musharraf era, drone...
Understanding the Emerging Geopolitics of Middle East
The security and political situation of Middle East and northern Africa remain volatile. As existing balance of power in the region is in transition,...
Iran Reacts to US-Israeli Stuxnet Operation
Context
An Israeli website reports the Iranians have blocked the supply of fuel to Afghanistan in retaliation for the joint US-Israeli Stuxnet operation against Iran's...
US Afghan Strategy Review and Spread of Drone Attacks to Khyber Agency
Context
As the Chinese premier continues his state visit to Pakistan, US pulled its station intelligence chief out of the country. The reasons cited for...
Centrifugal Forces Escalating in Pakistan and Settling along Ethnic Lines!
Context
There are a number of centrifugal forces acting on Pakistan, and from all accounts, the pulls and tugs are intensifying. These forces are mainly...
The Start of a New Phase of War Against Terror in Pakistan – The...
Context
In the aftermath of the devastating floods the Pakistan's democratic setup continues to exhibit exceptional weakness and disarray. Sensing an opportunity, the terrorists have...
The Waziristan Operation and the Arab-Persian Proxy War in Yemen
Context
It is becoming evident that there is a new fault line in the Middle East, with the Saudi-Yemeni border area as its epicenter. And...
The Unfolding Iranian Crisis and Foreign Meddling
The meddling of global powers in Iranian politics has started but under the present political environment of the region, these players want continuity not...
Will Taliban forces escape to the North of Swat?
As the Taliban forces get squeezed during the ongoing military operation in the Swat Valley, they will attempt to escape further north as evidenced...