Context
Lebanon is a country that has many similarities with Pakistan. The nation has many ethnic divides and foreign influences play a powerful role in maintaining the balance of power in the country. The Sunni and Shiite politics of the Middle East and the Islamic world also contributes to the political turmoil in Lebanon.
It is widely believed that UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon Investigation (STLI) that has been scrutinizing the assassination of Rafiq Harriri in 2005 would blame Hizbollah. In retaliation, and due to the failure of Saudi and Syrian supported initiative, members of Hizbollah withdrew from the coalition government, leading to its fall.
Since the collapse of the Middle East Peace Process, the fall of the coalition government in Lebanon represents another destabilizing influence on the region. The political and security situation in Lebanon directly impacts Israel. In recent days, statements have emanated from Israeli leadership that indicate if there are rocket attacks from Lebanon or if Hizbollah tries to take over, the country is prepared to take the military route. Since Hizbollah is supported by Iran, matters could again move towards a civil war like situation. In one statement, Nethanyahu said that Iran would only stop “if they thought they were facing a credible military option at the end of the tunnel.”
In view of this scenario media reports suggests that US, France and Israel are putting in place contingency plans. PoliTact will continue to monitor this situation.
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