Context
A media discussion on VOA Urdu program ‘Round Table’ held on June 22, 2015. The program covered the US Department of State report on extremism for 2014 and comparing it with PoliTact’s forecast that lays out the top 10 characteristics of the war against terror.

The panel included:

– PoliTact’s Chief Analyst Arif Ansar
– Former Interior Secretary of Pakistan Tasneem Noorani
– Editor of London based Newspaper ‘Western Affairs’ Manzar Qureshi
– Journalist Aqil Yusufzai,
– Brigadier (R) Saad Nazir from the Institute of Policy Studies Pakistan

Analysis

The post 2014 US State Department Report On Extremism And Characteristics Of The Campaign Against Terror appeared first on Politact.

Context

Nawaz Sharif’s team would have been relieved at the timely resolution of the fiscal impasse in US, allowing his visit to take place in somewhat normal circumstances. However, the message is clear; in the era of fiscal constraints, civilian aid and military assistance will get more limited in the future and will likely be connected to dealing with the extremists. Moreover, when it comes to trade, the protectionist sentiments are resurgent as Americans increasingly ponder over their government policies on outsourcing and trade dealings that benefit other nations more.

The priorities in Washington shift quickly based on the crises of the day. Consider this, just a month ago US was busy debating whether to strike Syria, and then matters shifted quickly to the government shut down and the debt ceiling. The emphasis is more on management than resolution. This is also the premise of the new book “No exit from Pakistan” from the leading Pakistani scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Daniel S. Markey.

Nonetheless, what are the priority issues which the leaders of US and Pakistan are likely to raise when they meet? Many analysts have stated the ties are getting back to normal after a tumultuous year or so, but what is the new normal. Pakistan’s support for Afghan reconciliation process and stopping cross border terrorism, are likely to be on the top of US list. On the other hand, Pakistan will demand respect for its sovereignty and assistance in helping the economy and energy shortages. Meanwhile, the nation has already placed its strategic bets on China.

Analysis

Epicenter of Terror

Whether one likes it or not, unfortunately, Pakistan is labeled as the epicenter of terror. Several extremist groups took refuge in the country at one point or the other and wrecked havoc locally, in the region, and beyond. Pakistan adopted a selective approach towards Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and Indian oriented militants. Due to this discrimination, the government’s sincerity and intention are often suspected, including by some of its own citizens. This is despite the fact that the nation suffered the most, in blood and treasure, in the conduct of this war. Thus talking with TTP, and the nations new counter terrorism strategy is of great interest, and Pakistan would have to carefully manage regional concerns and global perceptions.

For example, Indian apprehensions revolve around what extremists would do in the aftermath of NATO/US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Its position remains that if Pakistan deals with the extremist groups such as LeT and JuD, the problem of Kashmir will be resolved by itself. As it relates to Karzai government, in its security talks with the US, it is seeking assurance of protection against intervention from Pakistan. US has refused to offer such guarantees. Nonetheless, the fear of Afghan establishment persists. It continues to propagate why NATO/US forces want to retain the right to conduct operations in Afghanistan when the source of problem resides elsewhere, a reference to FATA and Pakistan.

US, for the most part, has remained sympathetic to Pakistan’s plight. After all, they jointly unleashed the genie during the soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Afterwards, Pakistan disseminated the lessons more widely. The country has actively cooperated with US in going after the extremists that have been threatening both countries. In the evolving phase of the war against terror, US would like to see Pakistan’s commitment to continue. It would also be interested in understanding its new counter-terrorism strategy, and how it addresses the concerns of Afghanistan and India. Both these countries are weary that in exchange for Pakistan’s help in Afghan reconciliation, US may go soft on it.

Covert and Overt Wars

On the other hand, in the post Mumbai incident environment, US-India cooperation on countering terrorism in the region really took off, and the Raymond Davis incident was perhaps the outcome of that. While Pakistan has assisted US in going after global extremists, that immunity does not automatically transfer towards seeking Afghan and Indian oriented extremists. The Salala tragedy and Raymond incident tested Pakistan’s red lines. India, meanwhile, has conducted joint exercises with many nations, including US Special Forces, envisioning counter-terror operations in the region.

This cat and mouse game is similar to the one Iran and US played over Iraq, and the wider region. The recent article by Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker Magazine, covering the role of the commander of Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Suleimani, indicates the breadth of exchanges between US and Iran. They never went directly at each other, but knew what the other was up to. This is the lesson of Cold War and almost an unwritten norm: great powers do not go head to head, and the use of proxies, whether via client-state or non-state actor, is considered fair play. The intent is always to keep things manageable.

No wonder, from Pakistan’s side, respect for state sovereignty and the drone issue will be on the top of the agenda. This remains a thorny issue as US shifts to smart strategies and tactics in pursuit of extremists around the globe, especially where the state is weak or incapable of going after the extremists itself, as depicted by President Obama in his address to the 68th session of the UN General Assembly. The dilemma for Pakistan is that it cannot maintain it would neither go after certain brands of extremists nor will it allow anyone else. Especially, when certain extremists are blatantly killing its civilians and weakening the state, while other elements are targeting the neighbors. Such a course will continue to raise suspicions about the collusion of the state, concerns about the security of its nuclear arms, and strengthen voices claiming genocide.

Meanwhile, American relations with the Islamic world are entering tumultuous times. The thaw with Iran is progressing, however, after Egypt, Saudi Arabia became the latest victim of disillusionment. The country last week refused to accept the non-permanent membership of UN Security Council in protest against its dysfunction and double standards over Syria and Palestinian plight. However, the crux of the matter was the Russian stand on Syria, which caused others to back off. With this context, it is fair to say that Pakistan has already placed its strategic bets on China and cuddling with US will never be the same.

The post Nawaz Sharif’s Visit; US-Pakistan Relations And China appeared first on Politact.

Context

US Vice President Joe Biden’s four-day visit to India got underway on Monday, July 22nd. The items being discussed include issues related to trade, environment, and security. The timing of the trip is intriguing and carries strategic symbolism. Biden’s visit to India is taking place soon after John Kerry visited the country in June.

At the time, it was reported the US secretary of state could not visit Pakistan because of the Middle East situation.

The recent high level American visits to India are taking place in the background of similar leadership contacts between China and Pakistan. The new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif completed a five-day official visit to China in early July. During the trip, deals worth billions of dollars were signed between the two nations, including the development of much-reported Pak-China Economic Corridor and the associated Kashgar-Gwadar project. The project includes developing of rail and road links between Gwadar port and Kashgar. Earlier, Pakistan had handed over the management of the strategic Gwadar port to China.

With Karzai still upset with the way the opening of the Taliban Doha political office was handled, India can help the American rapprochement with Karzai and in convincing him why reconciliation with Afghan Taliban may the best course of action. The challenge being, India cannot see Afghanistan without its connection to Pakistan, a neighbor with which it has had troubled ties since gaining independence in 1947.

Analysis

The dilemma for India still remains; in absence of improved ties with Pakistan, it can allow it to be the beneficiary of what transpires in Afghanistan, and after having spent about $2 billion dollars in economic assistance.

Moreover, included in the Indian consideration is the impact of Afghan reconciliation on the rest of the jihadist panorama in Pakistan. After dilly-dallying for a while, the emerging American policy appears to have delinked the two for the time being. How India digests this American de-hyphenation would decide if Indian political help towards Afghanistan would be forthcoming. India may link its assistance in Afghanistan with the role US wants it to play in the Pacific.

During Kerry’s visit to India in June, he promoted Indian military involvement in Afghanistan. Surprisingly, there was no vehement response to this from Pakistan. This suggests Karzai’s paranoia may not be that off the mark. US is pushing both India and Pakistan to improve ties as that would help stabilize Afghanistan. However, normalized ties between India and Pakistan do not bode well for Karzai under the current circumstances.

The post Biden’s Trip To India And Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.

“Kashmir has been the key issue but now it has become peripheral as all claims of supporting our struggle politically, diplomatically and morally are nothing but lip service.” He said militancy is the sole solution of Kashmir issue, since India is only gaining time through peace talks to implement its designs.

Salahuddin asked the people of Pakistan to mount pressure on the government to withdraw its new approach of the peace process, which is hurting the Kashmiri struggle. He also said the struggle would culminate in the withdrawal of Indian forces from Kashmir, just like US did from Iraq and Afghanistan.

He added that the normalization of trade and business with India would only benefit New Delhi while it will be counterproductive for Pakistan.

The post Hizb Warns Pakistan Against Withdrawing Support for Kashmiri Jihadists appeared first on Politact.

Commander of the outlawed group Jundallah, Ahmed Marwat, claimed responsibility for the attack on a bus traveling on Karakoram Highway in Kohistan on February 28, resulting in the death of 18 people. Seven armed men, in army uniform attacked the bus, and shot the passengers after checking their identification cards. Most of the passengers were returning after pilgrimage to the holy shrines in Iran. The ambush happened near the town of Hurban Nullah.

After the incident, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik set up a three-member investigation team, belonging to Inter Service Intelligence (ISI), Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Federal Investigative Agency (FIA).

The tactics used in this attack are similar to the ones used in Balochistan province recently. In October of last year, unidentified gunmen on motorcycle opened fire on a bus headed to Hazara Ganji. The passengers who were on their way to the fruit and vegetable market were removed from the bus, lined up and shot by assailants. Fourteen people belonging to the Shia community were killed and seven injured in this ambush. In a statement released at that time, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) warned the killings “exposes once again the diminishing writ of the state.”

In September 2011, 26 Shia pilgrims were killed in a similar fashion in the town of Mastung when armed gunmen attacked a bus carrying Shia pilgrims from Quetta to Iran. Two vehicles had intercepted the bus; the passengers were forced off the vehicle, and then fired upon by 8 to 10 assailants. The banned militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi had claimed responsibility for the attack.

The post Kohistan Bus Attack: Jundallah, Lashkare Jhangvi Adopt Similar Tactics appeared first on Politact.

US counterterrorism officials have claimed Al-Qaeda, once the most formidable terrorist group in the world, has been reduced to two main figures. Ayman al Zawahiri and his second in command, Abu Yahya al Libi, a religious scholar who escaped from the U.S. prison at Bagram air base in 2005 are believed to be its last “high value” targets. The capture of these two commanders is expected to effectively end the group’s operation and result in its defeat.

According to reports, AL Qaeda’s support is limited to Pakistan and Yemen. CIA Director David H. Petraeus has sustained drone attacks in the tribal belt of Pakistan to further weaken the network; “Now is not the time to let up the pressure,” said a U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “We’ve got an opportunity to keep them down, and letting up now could allow them to regenerate,” he said.

The post Drone Pressure To Continue On Al Qaeda appeared first on Politact.

The government proposed fresh amendments to the pending Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Bill 2010. The draft has been pending with the Senate Standing Committee on Interior for the past year, and the new amendments might be met with even greater resistance. The amendments propose to enhance the punishment of extortion to 14 years. It further suggests “the applicability of act may be extended to the citizen of Pakistan and person in service of Pakistan where ever they may be, including person on Pakistan flagship and aircraft.” Furthermore, under the amendment, the punishment for enticing public in a religious sermon would also be increased.

It is expected the amendments would face resistance from sympathizers of the militants. There are also worries about the misuse of the enhanced powers in the absence of provision to prevent their abuse.

The post Anti-Terrorism Bill Controversy May Deepen In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

According to a Pentagon official, Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is still in Pakistan. “We have no information to indicate that he is anywhere else than in Pakistan,” Pentagon spokesman George Little said on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, the Al Qaeda leader who took over control of the terrorist group after Osama bin Laden was killed, released a video claiming credit for the current Arab Uprisings. In a 62 minute long message titled “The Dawn of Imminent Victory,” Zawahiri said “The popular revolutions are a form of defeat for the United States” and he hoped for “a gloomy, bitter cold American Winter.”

The video also contained footage of Osama bin Laden before his death.

The post Pentagon: Ayman al-Zawahiri In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Cotext
The government of Pakistan has given another twelve-month extension to the head of its influential spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani announced the decision to retain Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, ISI’s director general, on Friday in a TV interview, saying it was necessary in view of the prevailing security situation in Pakistan. “We need continuity in the current situation, and the extension was very necessary,” the prime minister said.

The post Pakistan Extends Spy Chief’s Term appeared first on Politact.

Context

An Indonesian man suspected of involvement in bomb blasts in Bali Island was arrested in Pakistan along with militants belonging to a local Islamist group, according to senior government officials. Security analysts believe that the capture of Omar Patek is significant as he is amongst the few who could tell authorities about the connections and nature of cooperation between Islamists groups operating in Asia. Bomb blasts at nightclubs in Bali had killed more than 200 people in 2002.

The post Indonesian Bomber Captured In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.