Context

PoliTact recently issued an alert pointing out that the NATO and US exit strategy is in serious trouble after the Quran burning incident just a few weeks ago, in Bagram base, Afghanistan. The trust deficit between coalition forces and the Afghan people and security forces, is increasing at the worse possible time.

The blunders and security lapses that led to this Sunday’s killing of 16 civilians in Panjwai District of Kandahar province are events that will define the shape and pace of US-Afghan cooperation in the coming months and beyond 2014.

Analysis

The unfortunate killing of two US military personnel dissipated some of the public outrage and anti-American sentiment following the incineration of the Quran. Despite the pull-out of civilian advisors, military personal continued to work with their counterparts in various roles. Sources suggest that officials in the Ministry of Interior felt uncomfortably responsible for the events and were in a conciliatory frame of mind, eager to cooperate with the US – joint operations continued.

US military casualties will unlikely derail the plans to withdraw by 2014, as most indicators suggest that the deadline is one that the US military would like to see extended. However, the fallout from the killing of civilians in Panjawai will be long-lasting and potentially disastrous, with the main consequence being cooperation from Afghan partners less forthcoming over the next few months and Afghan support for US cooperation after 2014 diminished. On the other side, since the NATO Mohmand attack last November, Pakistan-US relations have remained strained as well, and cooperation between the two allies has dropped to minimal.

Around an hour after news of the killings surfaced, Ministry of Information spokesperson Sadiq Siddiqi, spoke to the international media warned that cooperation between his department and the US would be damaged as a result of the soldiers actions. More stridently, President Karzai, seemingly without hesitation, called the killings “an assassination… [that] cannot be forgiven”, making it clear that not only is he willing to publically criticise US forces and capitalise on anti-American feeling, but that he believes his political interests lie in distancing himself from the US.

This string of events comes two months before the signing of the strategic partnership agreement that will outline the role that the US and NATO will play during the transition period. Although Karzai committed himself to signing the agreement, he will now likely push harder for the transition process to be sped-up, including demands for early control of prisons such as the one at Bagram that is due to be handed over within the next six months.

In addition, Karzai will almost certainly condemn the use of Kill/Capture/Night Raids and again call for an end to the tactic that he believes results in a high number of civilian casualties -at least one resident of Panjawai likened the US soldier’s killings to Night Raids. However, Night Raids remain hotly disputed by NATO, who view the tactic as essential to disrupting and dismantling the Taliban and maintains civilian casualties during the operations are minimal.
Unfortunately, Karzai’s calls for a quicker transition and an end to Night Raids will only stall already slow progress towards a long term strategic plan and likely drag the Chicago Conference in May into intractable and repetitive discussions on these issues.

Even if Karzai is capitalizing on public opinion, but willing to negotiate in private, US room for error is now extremely thin. A significant backlash against NATO or US forces in coming months may force Karzai, and the Afghan government to throw in its lot with those calling for the departure of US and international forces and an end to cooperation post 2014.

Moreover, with the Presidential Elections in Afghanistan in early 2014, it will become politically expedient for candidates to run on an anti-US platform. It is more than likely that such a candidate, probably allied to Karzai, will win the election. With a fresh mandate and owing less to NATO than Karzai, the next president could prove a tough negotiator for the US.

The task at hand for NATO and the US government at the moment is deflating anti-American sentiment that if left to stew will eventually boil over. However, short-term indicators are not favourable.

Firstly, the spring temperatures will provide the conditions amenable for public demonstrations. Secondly, the number of variables that could instigate a fresh round of protests is beyond what the US military can hope to control; it may be another wayward soldier, an inaccurate drone strike or an uncouth statement by a Presidential candidate.

Another event like Sunday could ignite many days of rage and fatally damage the reputation of the US and incentivize politicians on all sides to quickly distance themselves from the coalition. If this happens, NATO will be left defending a population that neither wants it to do so nor appreciates the sacrifices it soldiers are making.

The post Turning Point Fast Approaching in Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.

Two significant developments have taken place in the last 24 hours. These events signify the continuation of the steps taken by Pakistan to protest the November 26 NATO attack on Salala check post, in Mohmand Agency.

Pakistan has now withdra
wn its officers from some of the joint intelligence-sharing centers, located across the Pak-Afghan border, reportedly for consultation purposes. The country has also recalled its Ambassadors from United States, Russia, the EU countries, Afghanistan, India and many other key countries for an emergency conference, as the nations reorients its foreign policy to the emerging realties. Pakistan’s envoy to US, Husain Haqqani has already resigned due to the Memgate controversy, while three other representatives are also reportedly being replaced.
On the other hand, two powerful Republican US Senators, John McCain and Lindsey Graham,
think that Pakistan is about to rescind its relation with US as it relates to the war on terror, and that US should now review all economic and military aid for Pakistan. McCain is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee while Graham is on the committee that allocates US foreign aid. In a joint statement, they stated:

“The United States has been incredibly patient with Pakistan. And we have been so despite certain undeniable and deeply disturbing facts,” they said. “The time has come for the United States to fully review its relations with Pakistan. We must assess the nature and levels of our support.”

Furthermore, former CIA official, Bruce Riedel thinks it was time for US to start containing Pakistan’s military as a policy, and with in a broader framework.

The post Pakistan Recalls Its Ambassadors, Staff From Joint Intelligence Centers, US Representatives Call For Review Of US Policy appeared first on Politact.

Context

NATO gunships launched an attack on Pakistan’s check post in Salala, located in the Tehsil Bayzai of Mohmand Agency, and situated across Kunar province of Afghanistan. The attack took place early on Saturday and has resulted in the death of 24 soldiers and two officers, with up to 12 soldiers injured. According to Pakistan’s military spokesperson, the incident took place 2 kilometers with in its territory and was unprovoked and deliberate. NATO Spokesman Brigadier-General Carsten Jacobson has stated it was investigating the details of the incident and offered condolences.

Meanwhile, the US Ambassador to Pakistan was called in to launch a strong protest and Prime Minister Gilani is holding an emergency meeting of the cabinet. According to media reports, the NATO supply line passing through Khyber Agency has been closed in protest. It’s not clear if the southern Chaman supply line has also been shut down.

A strong reaction is likely from Pakistan as it has been under pressure from US to launch a military operation in North Waziristan. The incident is likely to impact the tense US Pakistan relations and the upcoming Bonn Conference on Afghan reconciliation, scheduled for December 5th. The calls for cessation of all military operations are likely to rise for nascent political process to move forward. Furthermore, the role of foreign troops in Afghanistan would be in the limelight as well.

The post Pakistan Calls NATO Attack On Mohmand Post Deliberate And Shuts Supply Line appeared first on Politact.

According to media reports, Pakistan and the United States on Monday agreed on the “blue print” to Afghanistan. The talks took place as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led a delegation of top military and intelligence officials to Islamabad to discuss negotiations to foster peace in the region. According to a senior Pakistani official, the dialogue was successful with a framework and concept of reconciliation being agreed on by both sides. The Pakistani official said the details of the proposed plans would be worked out in the future.

Reports indicate Pakistan has agreed to be a part of the peace process to deal with militants including the Haqqani network without being a guarantor. The US is also believed to have agreed to include Pakistan in matters concerning Afghanistan.

The two countries however continue to disagree on some issues; Pakistan insists on a ceasefire in the region, while the US is stepping up its pressure to eliminate the militants from the region.

The post Afghan Endgame: Pakistan, US Reportedly Agree On ‘blueprint’ appeared first on Politact.

Context

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton headed a powerful delegation to Pakistan for a two-day visit. The trip to Islamabad was preceded by a stop-over in Afghanistan, and afterward Clinton was headed to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to conclude her Central Asia tour. The high-profile delegation was clearly on a fence-mending mission, with Clinton all smiles during her stay in Pakistan. The friendly overtone belies a struggling US-Pakistan relationship, with the future of Afghanistan at the core.

Analysis

Clinton’s visit was a busy one, with public audiences given to a carefully selected group of business leaders and students, as well as peer-to-peer government meetings and closed-door sessions with Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari.

The message, by and large, is the same: deal with safe havens along the Afghan border, or we will deal with them for you. However, there was a notable tone of conciliation coming from Clinton, particularly in the public audience sessions.

It appears that one aspect of the trip was to make amends for the comments made by Admiral Mike Mullen about the ISI’s relationship with the Haqqani network. Clinton clearly stated when the question arose that there was ‘no evidence’ to support Mullen’s claims. However, it has been suggested that the issue about the ISI and the Haqqani network is being pursued behind closed doors, to minimize public outcry on both sides about the relationship.

Public and media perceptions were big topics on the agenda in the public audience sessions. Many audience members pointed out that the anti-Americanism witnessed in the Pakistani media and public opinions was being mirrored by a ‘demonize Pakistan’ campaign in the US media, which has hugely affected the public perception in the US of Pakistan’s role in the war on terror and the NATO efforts in Afghanistan.

Clinton was keen to keep the talks focused on ways Pakistan and the US can build their relationship constructively, citing economic cooperation and a “trade not aid” policy as two avenues to pursue going forward. She also expressed admiration for the progress being made regarding normalizing relations with India vis-à-vis Pakistan giving India a Most Favored Nation status and increased talks between the trade and finance ministries of both countries.

Clinton didn’t mention, however, the strategic deal between India and Afghanistan, one which many are calling “US staged,” as the strategic partnership has put Pakistan on edge. The perception of a containment policy towards Pakistan is high, and Clinton did well to navigate away from this subject.

The complex Indo-Pak relations are rapidly taking on a kind of double life, which above all exposes the different visions of Pakistan’s civilian government and it’s military. On the one hand, Pakistan’s military iterate again and again that their one eye is always on India, and on the other hand the government is charging ahead with economic cooperation initiatives, and the tit-for-tat friendship votes at the UN. Last year Pakistan voted for India to receive a seat on the Security Council, Friday, India returns the favor with a vote for Pakistan as a non-permanent member of the Security Council.

However genial the tone of the public audiences, Clinton was still in Islamabad to bang out a message to her Pakistani counterparts: do more about your border region. The three options that seemed to come from the US delegation were either, a) deal with the Haqqani network aggressively, b) we’ll deal with the Haqqani network aggressively for you, whether you like it or not, or c) bring them to negotiations.

The mention of negotiations with the Haqqanis was a surprise to many because the group has been at the center of such contention. However it may be more like lip-service to the Pakistani All Parties Conference message of “give peace a chance” than an actual belief in the Haqqani network being willing to negotiate, or Pakistan being able to bring them into negotiations.

Another party unsure about Pakistan’s ability to get negotiations underway with militant networks came from the so-called “Radio Mullah” Maulana Fazlullah. Fazlullah took the opportunity of the US delegation in Pakistan to declare ‘war’ on Pakistan. The Afghan-based Taliban leader was previously entrenched in the Swat region of northern Pakistan before fleeing in 2009 after a military offensive. He vowed to return to his former stronghold to “get Sharia implemented in the Malakand region and rest of Pakistan.”
What the Talks Accomplished

Press conferences after the high-level talks were held were full of meaningless phrases like “broadened understanding,” which signifies for all intents and purposes no real solutions were agreed upon or problems solved in the meetings. This is more or less expected, given that both sides are quite clear in stating their differences of opinion, and neither seems willing or able to change stance. Pakistan is still averse to enter into military engagement in North Waziristan, and the US still feels adamantly that they should.

This is not to say that nothing has changed due to the two-day visit. There was a clear effort to bring Pakistan back into the fold as far as the Afghan situation is concerned. Previously the US had slighted both Pakistan and Afghanistan by pursuing negotiations with the Taliban independent of both nations. While in Kabul on Wednesday, Clinton reaffirmed that the US wanted to reboot peace talks and negotiations including Afghanistan and Pakistan in the mix. She reiterated that Pakistan ‘must be part of the solution’ in Afghanistan.

On a broader level, it was very evident that the coming election year in the US was weighing on Clinton’s mind. A number of times she made reference to US domestic politics tying her hands in many regards toward Pakistan, particularly in regards to trade and emergency aid for this year’s bout of floods.

The looming presidential election may have played into the decision to placate Pakistan with smiles and an amiable demeanor, as President Obama will need as much calm and good news on the Af-Pak front as he can get during the lead up to the presidential race.

Pakistan Unmoved

Interestingly, Pakistan appears to be unmoved by the show of goodwill from the Secretary of State. Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, reportedly asked the US delegation to respect the sentiments present in the All Party Conference resolution that stressed a peaceful solution to the Afghan conflict, through dialogue.

Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar was even more barefaced in outlining the manifest differences between the two countries. In a joint press conference with Clinton, she rebuffed the US assertion, whether official or not, that Pakistan has been knowingly supporting safe havens in its territory: “There is no question of any support by any Pakistani institutions to safe havens in Pakistan,” she said. “Let me be unequivocal and completely clear about that.”

She further added, in a veiled reference to the high cost of the US strategic partnership, that she takes the threat of terrorism “very, very seriously because we live with this threat on a daily basis; we live with this threat on an hourly basis.”

It appears Pakistan has set out to make it plain to the US that it is, after all a sovereign nation with national interests not always congruent to those of the US, which the US must respect.

The Long Road Ahead

Pakistan and the US know that the region at large is as important as Afghanistan itself for securing a lasting peace in Afghanistan. Most importantly, neighbors Iran and Pakistan.

In this light, Pakistan takes on even greater importance for the US, because there is little if any hope for any sort of help from Iran when the US is involved.

This in turn makes Pakistan more nervous, because they know that the US doesn’t feel it can rely on them to do as asked, so the other card they can play on is India. Already the increased Indian involvement in Afghanistan, as mentioned, has ratcheted up concern in Pakistan, despite ongoing efforts to improve relations between the countries.

It is a knife-edge kind of game for Pakistan, because they are attempting to assert themselves, but at the same time they realize that if the US perception about Pakistan deteriorates further, to the point where they no longer feel the relationship is productive then US support for Indian involvement would likely escalate. However, US very well knows that there can be no permanent solution to Afghanistan minus its two neighbors.

As one audience member at the Clinton talks aptly put it, the “US is like a mother-in-law which is just not satisfied with us.”

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The post Hillary Clinton’s Visit To Pakistan, Future of Afghanistan And US-Pakistan Relations appeared first on Politact.

Saudi Arabia has vowed to hold Iran accountable for any action it may take against the Kingdom. The Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal on Thursday accused Tehran of using “murder and mayhem” to increase its sphere of influence. The minister at a religious dialogue conference in Vienna said Riyadh would not quake under Iranian pressure. Prince Faisal vowed that “any action they (Iran) take against us will have a measured response from Saudi Arabia.” The minister did not specify the measures saying “we have to wait and see.”

Iran had denied allegations of its involvement in a foiled plot to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir.

The post Saudi Arabia Vows To Hold Iran Accountable appeared first on Politact.

The Afghan Ministry of Defense lashed out against the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for failing to prevent cross border attacks from Pakistan. Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Mohammad Zahir Azimi condemned shelling coming from Pakistan, and called for the eradication of militant sanctuaries in the country. 800 artillery shells have been fired from across the border into Kunar and Laghman provinces. 80 people have so far been killed and wounded.

The ISAF has said the attacks were carried out in remote areas, and an investigation has been launched into the assaults. ISAF spokesperson, Carsten Jacobson told the news conference ISAF “is seriously monitoring Pakistani shelling and a joint Afghan-ISAF investigation team has also been appointed in this regard.” He accused Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) for supporting the militants.

The post Afghan Officials Criticize ISAF For Not Preventing Attacks From Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Pakistani soldiers killed 30 Afghan militants in a border raid on Sunday. More than 200 Afghan militants crossed the border to attack the Pakistan army in the Barawal area of Upper Dir which lies 200km northwest of Islamabad. One soldier was killed and four were wounded in the fighting which went on for almost an hour. No independent figure of the militants killed has been established yet. According to officials, the militants after launching the attack slipped back across the border.

The incident is likely to worsen the already vulnerable relations between Islamabad and Kabul.

The post 30 Afghan Militants Killed After Cross Border Raid In Upper Dir appeared first on Politact.

The militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) has hinted it will accept mediation by Saudi Arabia if its government offers them peace talks. Maulvi Waliur Rehman Mehsud, of the TTP said, “We will see our shura (council) will decide whether and when can we enter into talks with the government, with the military…but I think we will like to involve countries we trust…they are in the Arab world. Let’s say Saudi Arabia.” The second in command to Hakimullah Mehsud said he did not have any direct peace offer yet but insisted any deal brokered must guarantee enforcement.

Pakistan’s military and political leadership at the All Parties Conference (APC) last month decided it would try to initiate negotiations with militant groups active in the country including TTP. The APC has suggested a “national institutionalized mechanism’ based on pattern of the High Peace Council (HPC) set up by Afghan President Hamid Karzai be developed for the purpose.

The post TTP Prefers Saudis As Peace Brokers appeared first on Politact.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai admitted his government had failed to maintain security in the country. The head of state told BBC it was a “serious shortcoming” that the Taliban were able to launch spectacular attacks in to Afghanistan. Karzai however accused Pakistan of supporting the insurgency and sheltering Taliban militants in its tribal belt. Karzai blasted Pakistan for its links to the terrorist group, and stated that “NATO and the US and our neighbors in Pakistan should have concentrated a long time back, in the beginning of 2002-3, on the [Taliban] sanctuaries” operating in Pakistan. Islamabad has repeatedly denied it provides support to the terrorist organization.

President Karzai expressed joy at his achievements in education and health. He also told reporters of his intentions to step down in 2014 when his current term ends.

The post Karzai Blames Pakistan for Security Failure in Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.