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Context
Foreign Secretary William Hague has commented that the commemorations to mark the 30th anniversary of the Falklands conflict (Spanish: Malvinas Islands) would proceed as planned, and there is nothing provocative about it. The deployment of Prince William and the Royal navy’s most powerful warship HIMS Dauntless to the South Atlantic Ocean, has been viewed by some as an aggressive step.

Meanwhile, Argentina has received the backing of Latin American countries for its claim of sovereignty over the remote islands of Malvinas, which was occupied by Britain in 1833. Argentina seized the island in a 74-day war in 1980s that killed 649 Argentines and 255 Britons. However, UK was able to retake the islands. The 8 member countries of the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) agreed to bar any ships flying the flag of Falkland Islands, from docking in their ports. President of Venezuela Hugo Chavez and Ecuador have also shown concern on the issue of Malvinas Islands and have threaten to join Argentina while the President of Ecuador proposed stronger measures.

Analysis

Recently, diplomatic wrangling escalated between Argentina and Britain when UK ordered oil explorations in the waters near the islands in 2010. The exploration groups, such as Desire Petroleum, have been actively drilling since then. According to a report of US Geological Survey, the seas around the islands contain 17 billion barrels of oil.

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After the visit of Hina Rabbani Khar to Afghanistan last week, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has travelled to Qatar. Gilani is visiting Qatar to discuss Afghan peace efforts in the aftermath of the recently held preliminary talks between Taliban representatives and US officials. He also met his counterpart Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani on Monday and agreed to collaborate in the energy and trade sectors.

On the Afghan issue, Gilani reiterated Pakistan’s stance of supporting Afghan-led and Afghan-owned initiatives for stability. Pakistan has some suggestions on the Afghan reconciliation process that were discussed in the meeting, a senior Pakistani official said. He added that Pakistan strictly adheres to the policy of non-interference. Asked how Pakistan viewed Taliban’s office in Qatar, he said that Taliban now have an address and all those desiring peace can have a contact.

The officials of two countries also discussed joint development of hydropower and to identify sources of financing, exploration of investment opportunities, rehabilitation of existing hydropower plants and infrastructure development.

To resolve the energy shortages of Pakistan, Gilani expressed interest in importing 500 million cubic feet LNG per day from Qatar.

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Hekmatyer dismissed reports concerning HIA’s surrender to the government and added that for the talks to have a positive outcome, the different political parties and ethnic groups should take part. Meanwhile, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah stated the Afghan government does not have a transparent peace program and the present political gaming will further distance the country from peace.

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China is seeing Markel’s visit as an opportunity to diversify its foreign reserves and to strengthen China-EU partnership. On the other hand, Germany has appealed for a level playing field for German firms operating in China, which have complained of restricted market access and barriers to entry in promising industries.

Germany has also asked China to influence Tehran as it relates to its nuclear program. However, Beijing has criticized EU’s unilateral sanctions on Iran, saying it is against China’s foreign policy to settle disputes with military actions or extreme sanctions.

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Context
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has said that Western allies are cautioning Israel against attack on Iran. Panetta strongly believes that Israel has already made the decision to strike Iran this spring. He said the US is trying to persuade Israel against the move, though US believes outside argument will not have any effect on Israeli decision-making. US is presenting the argument that Iranian regime will be considerably weakened after its ally Syria implodes, but the attack on Iran will have the opposite impact.

Analysis

Israel fears Iran will soon reach the zone of immunity, where limited military strike will not deter it from launching its nuclear bomb. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Thursday that if sanctions do not prevent Iran from making the nuclear bomb, then there is a worldwide understanding to launch a military strike.

Meanwhile, President Ahmedinejad predicted on Wednesday that Iran’s economy would grow eight percent over the next 12 months despite Western sanctions. He added that the budget was developed taking into account the price of oil and increased the defense spending by 127 percent under the new budget.

On the other hand, after leading the Friday prayers, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that Iran will retaliate to the western oil embargo or military attack. He said that war with Iran will be detrimental to America, whereas it will not dampen Iran’s determination to continue the nuclear course. Khamenei added that he has no fear to state that Iran will back any nation or group that wants to confront or fight Zionist regime.

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If indicted, he will be disqualified from office and imprisoned for six months. Aitzaz Ahsan, prime minister’s lawyer, has said that it is possible to appeal on the matter.

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Panetta said the administration wants to make sure that after the departure, Afghan forces are ‘sufficient and sustainable’, but noted that it is dependent on funds from US and other allied countries. NATO has set a target of 352,000 Afghan soldiers and police for this purpose, however, US thinks a smaller force would be adequate.

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