By: Farooq Yousaf

Since its inception, the state of education in Pakistan has presented a grim picture. With the onset of militancy and extremist narrative, the situation has become worse. With FATA in the firm grip of militants, the literacy has further dropped from 29% to just 17%.

Pakistan has, time and again, been included in the list of developing countries, but unlike its competitors, it has a drastically low literacy rate. Only one fourth of adults in the country are literate, and just 2% of the GDP is spent on education. This reflects the seriousness policy makers have shown to improve education levels. Although Pakistan has faced various crises over the past decade, education was never given due attention. This lack of focus could also be one of the causes for the escalating of militancy in Pakistan.

Opinion

The militancy and violence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan has consistently drawn world attention. After 9/11, the wave of terror which hit Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and FATA, and then other parts of Pakistan, has not only impacted the economy but also the education system of the country and KP.

The province, which traditionally was known by its hospitality, now provided sanctuaries and breeding ground for the militants. Schools were blown up, and students were threatened not to pursue the worldly education. This was based on Taliban’s version of Islam that discouraged worldly orientation, particularly for females, confining women to home with no right to education or recreation. These practices were enforced in the name of Islam.

The roots of the deteriorating state of education in the region can be traced back to the 80’s when President Zia’s regime supported the US war against Soviet expansion in the region. Religious schools, commonly known as Madrassa (or plural- Madaris) were transformed into Jihadi training institutes. Rural students seeking education in madaris were indoctrinated to become guerilla fighters in the name of religion and war against the infidels (communists).

Curriculum developed for these madaris propagated militant Islamic Jihad, contributing to the evolution of extremism in Pakistan. Even today, the madaris are perceived as a source of affordable education in the rural areas of KP. However, for the world outside, these madaris are breeding grounds for militancy. And, as most of these remained unregistered, they stayed outside the state regulation that helps keep a check on their activities.

As terrorism and Taliban indoctrination spread, there were other social impacts. Recreational and extracurricular actives were halted in schools, and female students were pressurized and threatened to use veils. Learning institutes in which boys and girls studied together constantly received warnings of suicide attacks, producing a permanent sense of fear and panic among the students.

Faizan Azeem Khan, a student for a bachelor’s degree from South Waziristan (FATA) commented:

“We used to visit our village regularly before the onset of militancy in our region. Militancy has set us apart from our relatives, and in current scenario I don’t think I’ll ever get a chance to have a reunion with them in Waziristan. This situation has put a drastic effect on my education due to stress and anxiety. The militants only seem to have one agenda mind, that is, stop the youth from attaining Worldly Education.”

The current government, to a large extent, shares the responsibility for not taking solid measures to curb militancy through education. As a result of militant attacks in KP, more than 700 schools have been destroyed, causing a loss to infrastructure worth millions of dollars.

The already low spending on education, 2.5% of GDP in 2006, was further cut down to 2% by 2012. Militancy, coupled with substantial cuts in spending on higher education, has led to suspension of various key projects in KP.

Higher education projects planned for Hangu, North Waziristan and Bajaur had to be shelved due to fear of reaction from militant organizations. As a result, hundreds of scholarships offered for FATA students were wasted. This was heartbreaking for thousands of students for whom the universities of Peshawar were inaccessible. The staggering difference between the education standards of public and private sector, leads to decreasing employment opportunities for the underprivileged class, generating a sense of frustration. This disappointment is also cashed in by the militant organizations.

The recent decision of the Federal government to transfer Higher Education Commission under the purview of the provincial government also hurts the future of education in Pakistan. The financially weak provinces cannot provide for this function.

The government needs to realize that maintaining an ambiguous policy on militancy and keeping a minimal level of spending on education and development would not help in nurturing moderate leaders for the country. Calls for total eradication of religious seminaries (or the madaris) also makes little sense as most of Pakistan’s population, which is already living below the poverty line, depends on this free source of education.

Grass route reforms, such as those introduced by the nonprofit sector, need to be incorporated in these seminaries. Such as, imparting vocational and computer skills for students seeking religious education. In coming years, bringing reforms to the structure and curriculum for madaris would be of utmost importance. This is essential in order to nurture a generation that is equipped to face the challenges of the future.

The writer is a Research Analyst, Programme Consultant and Content Editor at the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) in Islamabad, Pakistan. He is also pursuing research studies in Public Policy from Germany. His major areas of interest are War on Terror, Militancy in FATA, Central Asia and Middle East. He writes for major Pakistani and International news sources and can be reached at farooq@crss.pk

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Pakistan warplanes struck militant hideouts in the Orakzai district of northwestern tribal area on Wednesday, killing at least 12 insurgents. Reports indicate the hideouts belonged to the Mullah Toofan and Commander Moheyuddin. According to Pakistan military official, Moheyuddin may have been killed in the bombing.

In Kurram Agency, eight military officials were killed while 15 sustained injuries on Tuesday when militants ambushed a check post in Jogi area. In retaliatory attack, 30 militants also died.The Jogi check post was cleared last week by the security forces with deployment of gunships and additional troops.

The post As Afghan Peace Talks Speed Up, Militant Activity Increase in Orakzai And Kurram Agency appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s Interior Affairs Minister Rehman Malik declared the militant network Lashkar-e-Jhangvi responsible for terrorist activities in Baluchistan. Malik said security personnel had uncovered evidence of conversation between jailed members of the group and their counter parts which prove that the network was involved in target killing in Quetta.

The interior minister made these comments while talking to MNA Nisasr Ali, who boycotted the National Assembly session to protest against the killings in Balochistan. Malik also blamed sectarian issues and foreign elements for inciting violence in the region. He announced that a security plan would be drawn out by chief secretaries and police chiefs of all provinces to ensure peace in the month of Muharram.

The post Lashkar, Sectarian Tensions Behind Disturbances In Balochistan appeared first on Politact.

The US has vowed unilateral action against Haqqani network in Pakistan. The Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Wednesday warned the United States would retaliate against the group which is believed to be responsible for recent deadly attacks in Kabul. US and Afghan forces battled the group earlier this week in a 19-hour assault, in which the US embassy and NATO headquarters were targeted. The militant group is also believed to be behind the truck bombings on Saturday, which wounded 77 American troops.

The US has expressed unhappiness with Pakistan’s efforts in dealing with the terrorist network, which continues to have a safe haven in the country.
“Time and again we’ve urged the Pakistanis to exercise their influence over these kinds of attacks from the Haqqanis. And we have made very little progress in that area,” Panetta told reporters on Wednesday.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office has replied by stating that it is doing all it can and there is a need for coordinated action with US against extremists across the border, including those that are attacking Pakistani check posts and villages.

“We are using all our resources to fight terrorism. As far as these issues like Haqqani network launching attacks from Pakistani territory is concerned, has any proof ever been given?” stated a senior Pakistani military official.

“But if the militants are doing something inside Afghanistan, then it is the responsibility of the Afghan and Western forces to hold them on the borders,” he added.
“They let everyone go scot-free on their side (of the border) and then they say Pakistan is not doing enough.”

Cross-border attacks on Pakistani villages and posts by Taliban based in Kunar province of Afghanistan are on the increase. Recent reports in Pakistani media, including statements from ANP leadership, have suggested that Pakistani Taliban (TTP) hiding in Afghanistan have the support of NATO and Afghan security forces.

The post US Vows Unilateral Action Against Haqqani Network As Pakistan Demands Joint Action And Responsibility appeared first on Politact.

As many as 100,000 residents of Kurram tribal area have fled their houses after the security forces launched an operation against militants earlier this month, authorities said Wednesday. “We have so far registered at least 9,944 families — up to 100,000 people,” said Sahibzada Anis, a high-ranking government official supervising assistance for the refugees. He also said that around 1,800 families had taken shelter in makeshift camps while others were living in rented premises or relatives’ houses. Taliban and militant groups active in neighboring Afghanistan have reportedly set up training camps and bases in Kurram.

The post Thousands of Families Flee Kurram Operation appeared first on Politact.

Around 150 men carrying heavy weapons and rockets stormed a security checkpoint in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal area on Thursday night, leaving eight soldiers dead, according to intelligence officials. Twelve attackers were also killed in counterattack by armed forces. The attack happened in Makeen, a town on the border between South and North Waziristan, at a time when America has stepped up drone strikes in the areas along the Afghan border. The US has been urging Pakistan to launch a ground operation in North Waziristan, which is known as a stronghold of Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

The post Pakistani Troops Killed In N. Waziristan Clash appeared first on Politact.

Context
A suicide attacker stormed into Afghan Defense Ministry leaving two people dead and seven others wounded on Monday, according to Defense Ministry spokesperson Zahir Azimi. However, he added that the bomber was killed by security officials inside the building before blowing himself up. Another official of the defense ministry said that the attacker was wearing Afghan army uniform. The situation is now said to be under control. The attack has occurred after the weekend talks between senior Afghanistan and Pakistan leadership to speed up the reconciliation process with Taliban.

The post Suicide Attacker Targets Afghan Defense Ministry appeared first on Politact.

Context
According to media reports, at least 8 people were killed and 16 more kidnapped in two separate attacks in the tribal region of Pakistan on Friday.

In the first incident, unknown militants attacked a convoy of cars near Bagan Town in Kurram Agency, leaving 8 people dead and eight others wounded. All those killed and wounded were Shias, according to officials. The attackers torched two vehicles and fled.

In another incident, militants attacked another convoy near Medani Dam and hijacked a van with 16 people on board. The van was taken to an unknown location in the tribal belt. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attacks. 

The post 8 More Killed In Kurram Agency Since Signing Of The Peace Treaty appeared first on Politact.

The case of Raymond Davis is shrouded by complexity, no matter which angle one pursues. The incident has not only impacted the US-Pakistan relations but has also raised many questions related to diplomatic immunity and international law. Furthermore, the outcome of the event is likely to push US to evaluate its policy of using contractors to conduct government business. Nonetheless, at this crucial juncture of the Afghan war, both governments are searching for a face-saving exit.

The main pressure for US is to prevent another ‘Faisal Shahzad’ type attack in US, or Mumbai style incident in India, both of which had roots in Pakistan. In the aftermath of the devastating floods last year, the nations economic, social and political challenges are escalating. These difficulties are distracting it from taking on the extremists based on the American timeline. Additionally, there are questions regarding Pakistan’s strategic intent.

Meanwhile, mistrust between the two allies and their intelligence organizations, CIA and ISI, continue to grow. This article examines the evolution of overt and covert part of the war against terror in the region.

Analysis

Situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan Based Extremists And Mumbai Attack

The tactics and strategies related to fighting the war on terror evolved over time. It’s essential to consider the constant atmosphere of mistrust between US and Pakistan over each other’s intent in Afghanistan. Pakistan has remained concerned over not only Indian interference in Afghanistan, FATA and Baluchistan, but also with American attempt to build a strong strategic relationship with India. On the other hand, US continues to be wary of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and the nation’s alliance with China.

It should be pointed out that former President Musharraf had for quite a while denied that extremists from Pakistan were involved in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s position at the time was that even if there was cross-border support, it was coming from Afghan Taliban and Afghan refugees based in the country, and not from its intelligence organization. On the other hand, Indian, Afghan, and Western officials widely blamed ISI for the worsening situation in Afghanistan, and contended that without out the elimination of extremist safe havens in FATA, situation in Afghanistan could not improve.

It was only in 2007 that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) came in to being, representing an alliance of several other organizations. After the Red Mosque incident in late 2007, events took a turn for the worse and terrorist events spread across Pakistan, severely impacting its economy and the law and order situation of the country. The argument shifted from ‘there are no Pakistani’s involved in Afghanistan’ to if the country can on its own, and without foreign assistance, control the extremists responsible for the wave of terror in Pakistan.

Being a nuclear state, Pakistan could ill afford the negative publicity and the perception that extremists could take over its nuclear assets. Thus, it had to accept the offer of external assistance to manage American anxieties. However, all of this happened far from public knowledge or scrutiny of political leaders.

In late 2008, Mumbai attack definitively changed which groups had to be controlled by Pakistan. Subsequently, Kashmir related jihadi groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) also got lumped in to the broader definition of extremist groups, posing threats not only to India, but increasingly to Europe and North America. Furthermore, other neighbors of Pakistan, Iran and China, have also periodically raised concerns, regarding extremist groups operating from Pakistan that have threatened the stability of these respective countries.

Boots On The Ground And Drones

Drone attacks were US response to Pakistan’s slow pace of action in FATA. US had contended that Pakistan’s military either did not have the will or the capability to act against the extremists based there. On the other hand, Pakistan claimed it lacked capablity to take on countrer-insurgency operations and seeked US military assistance.

Although drone attacks started during the rule of Mushharraf, he was emphatic about Pakistan’s policy of ‘no boots on the ground’. Most observers believe this to mean that no NATO or US troops were allowed to cross border from Afghanistan in to the Pakistani tribal areas, in hot pursuit kind of scenario. Questions related to violating the sovereignty of Pakistan were often quoted in this regard. Additionally, coalition forces do not have the UN mandate to operate outside of Afghanistan.

In the case of drone attacks, they are widely believed to be flying from inside of Pakistan and therefore the questions about ‘violation of sovereignty’ are minimized. At this point, the government of Pakistan is widely believed to be complicit in the drone attacks while it publicly criticizes it.

Once Musharraf departed and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led civilian government came in to power, and the typical approach to ‘boots on the ground’ changed. Instead, different tactics unfolded; if these ‘boots’ were already with in the country, then they do not have to come from across the border. They could be in the form of trainers or civilian contractors and thus eliminating the chances of public and political outcry, which could arise from the presence of American boots.

This method could not have been implemented without the approval of Pakistan’s government. However, the views of nations civilian, military, and bureaucratic leadership were likely divergent on how many people were allowed on the ground in Pakistan, and about the red lines. This eventually led to many of the visa problems that US personnel confronted and were widely discussed in the Pakistani media. Nonetheless, like the drone attacks, the public remained in the dark on the details.

Every time US crossed Pakistan’s red lines, the country reacted strongly. The most recent incident occurred on September 30th, 2010, when a NATO helicopter attacked a Pakistani check post in Kurram. The attack took place only a few days after rumors had surfaced regarding peace talks between warring factions in Kurram Agency. That helicopter attack eventually led to the temporary closure of the key supply lines for NATO forces in Afghanistan.

The Raymond Davis Incident And The Future

After careful deliberation, the Obama administration unveiled its new Afghan policy in early 2009, known by its controversial name, AfPak. The most noteworthy aspect of this review was the shift of US policy from military approach to a search for a political solution, with the emphasis on regionalism. There was recognition of the fact that the extremists were operating across borders and without regard to the nation-state classification, which the governments had to abide by.

To deal with the menace of extremism a two prong has been in works, one overt and the other covert. President Obama authorized to significantly increase the covert operations in Pakistan. Additionally, the New York Times disclosed in May 2010 that General Petraeus signed a secret order in late 2009, increasing secret operations to counter militants and other threats across the region. The order authorized Special Operations forces to operate in both allied and hostile nations in the Mideast, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa.

Although the Afghan policy remained a combination of both covert and overt operations, the Pakistan element has been largely covert. The public narrative of  some segments in Pakistan has consistently maintained that the larger goal of American boots in the country is to undermine it and ultimately neutralize the nuclear capability of the nation. As the country becomes consumed in self-survival, it would no longer be able to concentrate on Afghanistan. To counter this perception US approved $7.5 dollar under the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act.  However, it  has failed to make significant headway due mainly to the security situation in Pakistan and the continued mistrust between the two countries. Many of the USAID workers were delayed from arriving in Pakistan, as the ISI would not give Pakistan embassy in Washington the speedy clearances for issuing the visas. Ultimately, the civilian government in Pakistan found a work around to this issue, which by passed the stringent procedures.

From the point of view of the US, use of contractors offers the buffer of plausible deniability but does not protect the assets in the long-term. The incident would inevitable lead to increase scrutiny of American personnel all over the world and risks denting the integrity of American diplomats. At the same time, US would want to avoid the results of this event to serve as a negative precedence. Furthermore, it would not like to jeopardize its pivotal relations with Pakistan on the issue of Raymond alone.

From Pakistan’s perspective, activities of Raymond Davis have validated the reasons for the hesitation of the country in accepting foreign support. Pakistan, on the other hand, is caught between its economic dependence on US and extreme anti-Americanism in the country. Economically strangled Pakistan can barely afford hurting US-Pakistan relations, which results in billions of dollars in civilian and military aid. However, the Pakistani media has elevated the issue to such a extent that the political government cannot hope to survive, if it lets Raymond Davis go with a slap on the wrist.

It is the above context that has led to the Raymond Davis incident and the complications that have followed regarding his status and role. From the posturing of both US and Pakistan, it seems that some red lines and the provisions of the secret agreements between the countries have been violated.

Although, the full details of the Raymond incident are not publicly available, the momentous question for Pakistan’s army would be if there is evidence suggesting US is actually trying to contain Pakistan and its influence in Afghanistan, once the US withdraws. Addtionally, if there is active ground level operational cooperation and intelligence sharing, between India and US, against Kashmir related jihadist groups in Pakistan. A recent Stuxnet operation against Iran’s nuclear program revealed there was such collaboration between Israel, UK, and US.

As the public outrage and rebellion against their governments spreads in Middle East, Pakistan’s government cannot risk treading too far from public opinion, while it supports the secret war against terrorism. From all indications, the country intends to perform some course correction in its relations with the US. In all likelihood, and after initial posturing is over, new red lines would result from the Raymond incident in the conduct of war against terror.

The post The Case of Raymond Davis And US-Pakistan Relations – The Evolution Of Political And Tactical Strategies Related To The War On Terror appeared first on Politact.

 This Vantage Point Analysis explores scenarios for the next phase of the war against terrorism in Pakistan and elsewhere. 

Analysis

South Punjab is home to four key militant outfits: the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and Maulana Masud Azhar’s Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM). It is widely believed that between 5,000 and 9,000 young men from South Punjab are fighting alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan and Waziristan. The region has become critical to the recruitment, training and logistical support for terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In fact, according to media reports, Jihadist veterans in Southern Punjab are actively involved in supplying manpower and carrying out activities planned and funded predominantly by the Al-Qaeda.

Lahore has been a prime target and terrorists have executed a number of attacks there. In March 2008, a bus carrying the Sri Lankan cricket team was successfully targeted, causing severe damage to cricket in Pakistan. LeJ was widely believed to behind this. Aqeel, the chief culprit in the GHQ attack, was involved with the same group. LeJ also stands accused of carrying out several attacks in India, including the daring one on Parliament in 2001. Ajmal Qasab, the sole surviving terrorist involved in the Mumbai attacks, is believed to belong to LeT and hales from Faridkot Village, in the Okara District of South Punjab.

The conventional wisdom which says that once the US exits from Afghanistan, the extremists in Pakistan will simply disband and live in peace is fast losing validity. We at PoliTact maintain, on the contrary, that Pakistani extremists, Taliban militants and the Punjabi Jihadists are not going anywhere. Only one simple fact is required to prove this: the Punjabi Jihadist, like the Pakistani Taliban, has lost faith in the Pakistani army. The result: an increasing number of attacks on civilian and military targets across the country. Some examples: the killing of former ISI officer Khaled Khwaja and the abduction of Colonel Imam by a group of Punjabi Taliban known as the “Asian Tigers.” The North Waziristan operation might very well succeed in destroying any residual trust the Afghan Taliban might still feel regarding the Pakistani Army. If that happens, the focus of the war could dramatically shift from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

One reason why many Pakistanis might oppose a military action in Southern Punjab is the region’s Jihadist role in Kashmir. Pakistan has traditionally used Jihadism in Kashmir, as did the US during the Afghan war of the 80s, as a strategic option and Southern Punjab has played an important role in this. Religious organizations in Southern Punjab have developed a highly elaborate system for recruiting and training youth for participation in the Kashmir’s freedom movement. Extremism flourishes in the poverty-stricken suburbs of South Punjab.

A South Waziristan-styled operation will obviously not be feasible in densely populated South Punjab; the use of sledgehammer tactics to crush militancy will most likely lead to intolerable collateral damage, followed in turn by highly unpleasant consequences. Moreover, Southern Punjab is home to Punjabis and opening up a new war front in the area could inflict further damage on the already tarnished reputation of the Pakistani military. Thus, Pakistan needs to come up with a new approach to fighting extremism and militancy there.

If these new fronts open in the manner we anticipate, the fissures within the Pakistan army will grow. The alienation of the Pashtun and Punjabi elements in the military will make it impossible to avoid an adverse outcome for the Pakistani state. The emerging collaboration between TTP and Punjabi Taliban of Southern Punjab mean that one can’t end the war simply by driving terrorists out of the tribal areas and that Pakistan must prepare itself to fight on several fronts. Similarly, there is increasing evidence of collusion between international terrorists and local extremists in the region, which is forcing the war against extremism in to additional areas and countries and reinforcing the fact that this war is not limited to AfPak region alone. The New York Times disclosed yesterday General Petraeus signed a secret order in late 2009, increasing covert operations to counter militants and other threats across the region. The order authorizes Special Operations forces to operate in both allied and hostile nations in the Mideast, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa.

Obviously, the militarization of the society, caused by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has yet to be fully actualized. We believe that the US departure from the region, if and when it happens, will not mark the end of the process. This is just like the results of the Afghan Jihad of the 80s are still manifesting in the region, and the consequences of what is occurring now will take many years to fully emerge.

Faced with these scenarios, the US exit strategy has focused on weakening the local and global extremists – but without much success in addressing the causes which leads them to adopt extreme ideologies. Add to this the worsening crisis in Iran and the Horn of Africa and it appears that the region is heading towards a chaos, which will take decades before any semblance of order finally emerges.

In South Asia, as well as in many other parts of the world, there is no one-to-one match between a nation and a state and many irredentist claims exist. It seems to us that if events continue on their present trajectory, the region will gradually revert to the condition it was in prior to the establishment of nation-states. The next phase of the war against extremism seems willing to cross over borders and not be restricted by the nation-state classification. The unpopular and often undemocratic governments of these regions will be caught in the middle of this fight between extremists and the Coalition of the Willing, with both causing tremendous pressure on the often ineffective and corrupt governments.

These tensions are inadvertently weakening the supporting structures and institutions of the nation-state system, as we are in seeing in the case of Pakistan. If the nation-state based order that has existed since the end of World War II was to go, and if history is any lesson, religion and tribalism will perhaps prove to be the primary forces holding society together in these regions. Which brand and faction of religion, is a different question. PoliTact will be presenting a number of emerging patterns associated with the war against terrorism, in its soon to be released GIPSEE (Global Intelligence, Political, Security and Economic Estimate) Forecast.

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