Egypt and Pakistan have a lot in common, and different as well. Like Pakistan’s famous Indus civilization, Egypt has the ancient Nile. Anne Patterson, previously the Ambassador of Pakistan, is now the US envoy for Egypt. The country has acute energy shortages and financial crisis similar to Pakistan, and both nations are negotiating with IMF for economic assistance. The most stark similarity relates to the armed forces of both countries that have stood as bastion of western influence in these nations. At the same time, they serve to offset the conservative, liberal and nationalist societal forces.

Then there is the ideology of Ikhwan-ul-Muslemeen that over the years has spread throughout the Islamic world, including Pakistan. Muslim Brotherhood (MB) influenced parties in Pakistan have been part of numerous political coalitions but have never formed a national government. Their agenda has been exploited more, and their leaders have allowed this to happen on more than one occasion with a parallel loss of authenticity.

However, in Egypt a different story has played out. After decades of struggle and years of persecution at the hands of the state, MB finally gained enough backing to form the government in the aftermath of Hosni Mubarak. Though just after a year in power, Mohamed Mursi’s government was overthrown in a military coupe last week and the country once again appears to be on the verge of a civil war. The scary thing is it’s not just Egypt but the whole region, which seems to be heading towards a confrontation due to the societal imbalance and inability to peacefully resolve the battle for supermacy between the secular, nationalist, conservative and religious influences.

(Another version of this analysis was published in Pakistan Today on July 8, 2013)

Analysis

The Societal Balance of Power

Despite state harassment and ideological differences with factions that propagated total revolt against the perceived un-Islamic system, MB worked with in it to finally arrive at the helm of power. Moreover, Israeli apprehension proved to be a fallacy that once in power the Ikhwans will undo the peace treaty. Then what really happened?

While most of the focus has remained on the internal causes and mismanagement of MB that may have led to Mursi’s overthrow, there are obviously wider patterns to consider as the struggle between status quo and change continues in Egypt and the wider Islamic world.

Since the end of World War II, the liberals, socialists, nationalists, and a mix of conservatives and religious influences, have had their ups and downs in the region. For the most part, their political maneuvering was the outcome of tensions between the socialist and capitalist models that were playing out globally.

For example, it resulted in the creation of the Arab Socialist Baath Party in 1947; a coming together of nationalist and socialist forces against western imperialism that called for an Arab unification. It later split in to Iraqi and Syrian factions. These same influences were also acting out in Egypt, causing Gamal Abdul Nasser to play a leading role in the formation of the Non-Aligned movement and nationalization of the Suez Canal Company.

Generally, the nationalists in the Arab world were more accepting of socialist influences emanating from the Soviet Union. The conservative and religious influences, on the other hand, have had an uncomfortable political existence. They were looked upon with distrust, as waiting for their chance to revive the Ummah and the Khilafat. This in turn impacted the strategies of nationalists and liberals, who exploited the fear of global powers from the conservatives and religious segments.

The Role of Military

The military has usually played a pivotal role in balancing these different influences, and continues to in places like Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan. In Turkey, the army was the protector of secularism that was adopted under Ataturk. In Egypt and Pakistan, the military seems to choreograph the secular, nationalist and conservative responses, so that they don’t get significantly out of line from what would be globally accepted. However, due to factors like the war on terror, corruption, and lack of governance, the political landscape has changed dramatically. The conservative quarters have gained considerably while secular block appears to be receding.

The failure of secular governments and autocratic rulers to govern and provide better opportunities for the growing Muslim masses has also speed up the change in ground reality. While the communism was no more, these leaders used the war on terror to gain western legitimacy. This has been most prominent in Pakistan, where even the democratic system has failed to live up to the aspiration of the people. While high marks are being given to the smooth transition of government, or the process so to say, the performance of these governments was quite dismal.

Consider the following example: the PML-N government won the elections on a conservative platform with affinity towards some religious groups. Once in power, it has quickly distance itself from that posture and its present trajectory appears no different or better than Musharraf or Zardari. This misrepresentation also discredits the system in the long run. Without dealing with the security situation, the economic miracle simply will not happen and is it is disingenuous to claim so.

Conclusion

In short, the system in these states continues to revert towards status quo, when dramatic changes are required to adapt to the ground reality. In this context, the military coupe in Egypt is a dangerous reversal. It has given an opportunity to the extremists to convince even the moderate Islamists that there is no use in working with in the system to gain power.

With the help of the military, the seculars may have pushed back the Islamists in Egypt. However, subsequent demonstrations have shown the MB was not totally without support. As mentioned above, the conservative and Islamist influences are gaining throughout the Islamic world. How much have they penetrated the armed forces of these nations is a touchy question. It is imperative for the militaries of these nations to not tread to far from the pulse of the society, as they’ll do so on their own peril. With polarization at its pinnacle, it may mean staying neutral and not interfere in favor of one group or the other.

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Context

Trouble continues to brew in Northern Africa and the Horn of Africa, with fighting escalating in the Yemen, Sudan and South Sudan and Al Qaeda-linked militancy rife in the region. As the nation state system falters in the region, tensions have reawakened along tribal and ethnic lines, as PoliTact forecasts have predicted.

Analysis

Yemen

The situation in the Yemen is deteriorating rapidly, as the new government tries to deal with a growing militant insurgency in the country. The political vacuum created when long-time leader Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped amidst popular protests has given an unprecedented opportunity to militant groups in the country – largely affiliated with the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula – to seize control, particularly in the lawless south. Militants now control swathes of territory in the south, and new President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi is attempting to retake these areas, however lack of control within his own government hampers his efforts to rally a dispirited military, handing further advantage to the militants.

Yemen is of crucial importance to the US, although there is a lower-profile interest in the country than its efforts in the war on terror in Afghanistan or Iraq. The country is seen as the future of the war on terror, and as a major rallying point for Al Qaeda. The US regularly carries out aerial unmanned drone attacks in the country, although it has yet to formally acknowledge this practice. On Sunday April 15, three suspected militants were killed in a drone attack on their moving vehicle, according to Yemeni security officials.

Somalia, Mali, Sudan

Somalia, Mali and Sudan and South Sudan are also all in a state of flux. Al Qaeda-linked militant groups in all three countries are using the internal political upheavals as an opportunity to capitalize on the reversion in many areas to tribal and ethnics links, as the pull of the nation state system weakens. In Somalia and Mali, militants are actively advertising the countries’ lawless regions as safe havens for militants, and the biggest concern for these governments is not only the rallying of citizens to the militant banner, but also the influx of foreign fighters to take advantage of the safe refuge available. In Somalia the proximity to Yemen has hampered efforts in both states to fight militants, who find it easy to jump the narrow Gulf of Aden when there is heavy pressure from one side, only to return when the pressure decreases.

Sudan and Southern Sudan have also recently come back to the brink of war after ending one of Africa’s longest and bloodiest civil wars in 2005. The border town of Heglig is at the center of the new tensions, which is a crucial oil-producing asset that both sides claim. Egypt has taken on the role of mediator in the latest escalation of tensions, promising to ‘contain the tensions’ between the two countries in order to prevent a descent into all-out war.

Egypt

While Egypt still possesses enough regional clout to offer mediation in conflicts like in Sudan, its own internal situation is far from resolved. The biggest looming issue is the presidential elections slated for June, as a number of candidates were recently disqualified from running. There is still some doubt as to whether the military council ruling Egypt will let free and fair elections take place in the country, as they have effectively been in control of the country for decades, ruling from behind ousted former president Hosni Mubarak.

Tensions are also rising in the Sinai between government forces and local Bedouin tribes, who feel they were mistreated for years under Mubarak and now demand fairer treatment and more representation. However, the militant-linked Muslim Brotherhood is holding sway politically in Egypt. They backtracked on their promise not to field a candidate for the Presidency, although their main candidate, Khairat El-Shater was later dismissed because he was only recently released from prison, and Egyptian law states that any candidate must have been pardoned or released from jail six years prior to running for office.

The situation in Egypt holds some similarities to problems in Pakistan. A strong military clashing with a civilian government, and both attempting to stem the tide of tribalism and ethnic divisions opening up in their respective countries.

Libya

Libya is also struggling with a recession into tribalism as the new government has failed to adequately present a united front for the people of Libya to rally behind. There is still a long way to go for Libya to rebuild itself, and as the new government deals with its own problems, people tend to look to tribal leaders more and more in place of a solid nation state.

This is a trend that PoliTact anticipated in the wake of the Arab Spring upheavals, and is proving to be a common tendency across most of the countries affected by the Arab Spring, as well as those struggling in the Horn of Africa. As the nation state system weakens, this trend can be projected to intensify as people look to a more local figurehead to deal with day to day issue in lieu of a stable state structure, judiciary and law enforcement.

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Cairo saw fresh violence after protestors clashed with military personnel on Monday. Tahrir Square witnessed demonstrators defy government efforts to keep them away from the site symbolic of the rising against Husni Mubarak.

Civilians filled the streets after sunset, calling for power to be handed over by the military. Violence gripped the country over the weekend as fighting continued on Sunday. The fighting spread to other Egyptian cities including Alexandria, Suez and Aswan.

Culture Minister Emad Abu Ghazi minister resigned over the law and security situation in the country, while calls were made by opposition for the interior minister to be sacked. Amr Moussa, former secretary of the Arab League and a presidential candidate said, “The way the police deal with the protesters… we’re all against this kind of violence and this treatment of the people.” Nearly 1,750 people have been reported to have been injured in clashes across the country.

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Thousands on Friday protested against the Egyptian military which ousted Hosni Mobarak’s government earlier this year, which turned violent on Saturday resulting in the death of two protestors.

Demonstrators gathered in Tahrir Square after the military proposed constitutional changes which civilians fear will cement its power. The military is believed to be attempting to affirm itself as the guardian of “constitutional legitimacy”.

The security forces through legislation would increase its power, allowing it to determine major policies even after elections. It is also feared the document would prevent accountability of the armed forces. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s most organized political party led the protests against the military.
Egyptians expecting a change after Mobarak’s downfall, expressed frustration with the continuing economic problems, and the dismal law and order situation in the country.

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Egypt’s first ever democratic parliamentary polls might be delayed until November, amid growing tensions between the country’s ruling military council and demonstrators who claim their revolution is being infringed. The elections were initially scheduled for September, causing fears among nascent political parties which say they don’t have sufficient time to prepare. Many activists argue that early polls would only assist forces that already have a strong organizational capacity i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood and remnants of former president Hosni Mubarak’s NDP Party. This week, Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces admitted for the first time that a postponement of polls might be necessary, sparking protests across the country.

The post New wave Of Demonstrations Hit Egypt as Military Delays Election appeared first on Politact.

The government of Egypt on Sunday announced stiff security measures to tackle religious violence that left 12 persons dead in Cairo’s Imababa district, sparked by reports that Christians had kidnapped a lady who embraced Islam. Egypt’s army also vowed that as many as 190 persons would be tried before military courts for Saturday’s violence. The clash was the country’s worst interfaith faighting since March 9 when 13 people were killed after a church was set on fire, and poses new challenges for military generals ruling Egypt since former president Hosni Mubarak was ousted in February.

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• Middle East Situation – VideoTwo contrasting narratives have emerged on understanding the dynamics of unrest in the Arab world. The primary argument supports the notion these revolutions are not linked to each other while the other holds they are.This Video examines both angles to understand what’s taking shape in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Egypt, and Libya.To Understated the dynamics of the Arab world, we need to examine:
  • What connects the region and what divides it
  • The forces of change and status quo in the regions

   

The post What Connects and Divides the Uprisings in Middle East appeared first on Politact.

Context

After Tunisia, the protest in Egypt appears to be spreading and gaining momentum. However, Egypt is not Tunisia and stakes for American and Israeli interest in the Middle East are high. Especially, after Muslim Brotherhood asked its supporters to join the protesters. Not only are the affairs of Lebanon in flux, now Egypt appears to be unraveling.

Analysis

Media reports suggest Egyptian defense minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi made a secret to Washington to gain US support as Mubarak plans a serious crackdown. The official response from Washington has so far emphasized the need for social, political and economic reform in Egypt. However, in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Obama dropped a hint indicating what to expect in the Middle East. He stated:

“We saw that same desire to be free in Tunisia, where the will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator. And tonight, let us be clear: the United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people.”

Although some American media channels changed its original assertion that Tunisian protests were triggered by the leaks of Wikileaks, one thing is clear; Egyptian, Yemeni, Algerian, and Jordanian riots are connected to what happened in Tunisia. Furthermore, US itself is struggling to maintain its role of a fair arbiter in the Arab-Israeli conflict, particularly in the aftermath of the ‘peace flotilla’ incident last year.

United States face two contradictory pressures as it manages its perceptions in the Islamic world, as crucial events take shape in the Middle East. These are:

1. US claims to be a friend of Islam, however, its policies are tilted in favor of heavy handed approach of Israel.
2. US has asserted support for the aspirants of democracy in the region, but the stagnant dictators and monarchs cannot remain in power without American backing. These authoritarian governments have protected American interests but have failed to provide opportunities for social and economic uplift of its citizens.

The decision of Muslim Brotherhood to join the protesters has particularly explosive consequences for the politics of Egypt and the security of US and Israel. At this juncture, US would like to protect its interests in the region and at the same time maintain a close eye on the unfolding situation in Egypt. If it turns out that Mubarak is unlikely to keep a hold of power, then Egyptian Army would be the next best bet, to manage the transition. The last thing US and Israel would like is to let Muslim Brotherhood gain the upper hand.

At the same time, it would be wrong to understand recent events taking shape in the Middle East on a country-by-country basis. Obviously, each nation-state has its distinctive dynamics, but some thing larger is occurring in the Arab world. The situation in Islamic world appears to be a tinderbox. Anti-American sentiments are running high in many countries. Just yesterday, a person connected to US Consulate in Lahore shot and killed three local civilians, who were reportedly either robbers or assassins. Although details about what took place remain murky, the possibility exists that it was a covert operation against extremists, gone bad.

With public resentment against their governments running high in many despotic regimes of the region, trivial events can quickly snowball. For all intents and purposes, the rulers of these countries have outlived their utility and have focused most of their energies on self survival. From the point of view of US, in such circumstances it’s better to have a managed transition, and thus avoid a full-blown revolution, in which religiously inclined elements are likely to gain the upper hand.

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