Context

The Intelligence Chief for the Lebanese Internal Security Forces, Wissam al-Hassan, died in a bombing October 19, and the Syrian leader Assad has been blamed for the killing as he was in the case of Rafiq Hariri. The proxy war in the Middle East is now escalating and taking a turn for the worse. It appears the emerging posture of Russia will play a key in shaping the politics of the Islamic world.

Analysis

Key Events

October has so far proven to be a dramatic month as far as the situation of Middle East is concerned; unprecedented events are creating unparalleled risks.

For example:



1. An unarmed drone belonging to Hezbollah was shot down over Israel on 6 October. Most analysts indicated the intrusion was to warn Israel and to showcase the vulnerability of its Dome anti-missile defense system.

2. A large arms deal was signed between Moscow and Iraq on 9 October worth 4.2 billion dollars. The deal includes MiG-29 fighter jets, Mi-28 helicopters and Pantsyr-S1 defense systems. Just like Pakistan, Moscow is also interested in Iraq’s energy sector.

3. On 10 October, a Syrian plane carrying surveillance equipment from Russia was intercepted by Turkish F16s, reportedly on US intelligence, and forced to land in Ankara. The event took place as shelling across the Turkey-Syrian border continued.

4. Following up on these events, Russia indicated that while NATO and Turkey are moving towards a no-fly zone over Syria, it will be deploying S-400 interceptor missile system on its border with Turkey. In addition to targeting plane, S-400 is also capable of destroying ultra-stratospheric and ballistic missiles.

Media reports indicated the move was in retaliation to Turkish participation in NATO’s missile defense system. However, the step clearly is also in retaliation to the recent Turkish and NATO actions over the situation in Syria.

5. On 17 October, US indicated that it will be conducting with Israel its largest ever military exercise, named Austere Challenge. The three-week exercise will test Patriot anti-missile systems, an Aegis ballistic missile defense ship system, including the Iron Dome and Arrow 2.

“This exercise is purely about improving our combined US-Israeli capabilities,” the US Lt Gen Craig A Franklin commented. “It’s about military teamwork. It is not related to national elections nor any perceived tensions in the Middle East. We are military professionals coming together to train for a defensive mission.”

The Proxy War Of Middle East, South Asia

The above listed sequence of events provides a glimpse of how the situation of the Arab World is beginning to look more like a tussle between international stakeholders. There is talk of bypassing the UN Security Council once more, where China and Russia have consistently vetoed intervention in Syria. There is also noise about acting directly, as witnessed recently in the Libyan crisis, where the French and the British took the lead while US played more of a supporting role.

The proxy war in Syria has already crossed over borders. The killing of Lebanese intel chief is blamed on Shiite Hezbollah who is also supporting the Assad regime against the rebels in Syria and is backed by Iran. On the other hand, the opposition to Assad, is backed by the Sunni factions in Lebanon and by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, including NATO. As PoliTact pointed out previously, in the AfPak region, the opposite is occurring. The Sunni militants and jihadist there are opposed by NATO forces, and Pakistan is under pressure to act against Afghan Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) that targets India.

This inherent contradiction is likely to complicate western posture in the war on terror and its policy towards the Islamic world. The war against extremists and Arab awakening is becoming a linked phenomenon where the Islamists are resurgent in both instances. Moreover, the inconsistency in western policy is making it difficult to convince China and Russia, and other emerging powers, about their stance on Syria. Especially when emerging powers feel the mandate given to them in Libya was violated.

What To Expect

Most of the Cold War was fought through proxies, while Russia and US though came close, they never engaged directly with each other. The present landscape of the Arab World appears to be showing similar symptoms and trajectory. The established powers are employing proxies as it suites their purpose and its matter of time before the emerging powers may be forced to do as well. The interception of Syrian plane carrying surveillance equipment from Moscow is a case in point. Previously, Russian ships supplying helicopters to Syria were also obstructed.

How far Russia will go to protect its global interests is pivotal to the present predicament of the Middle East. And it is for this reason Pakistan-Russia entente is being watched very carefully. Russia is keen on not letting Afghanistan be solely a NATO agenda. On the other hand, China is increasingly tied down in the pacific, as opposed to worrying about far off places. While China’s involvement in the Islamic world does not differentiate between the Shiite and Sunni factions, as the western countries do, Russia has aligned itself more closely with Shiite-dominated states and may be in the process of diversifying its approach. This fresh outlook is not going to be without challenges; Russia has its own problems with Sunni jihadist in places like Chechnya and Dagestan.

The post Russia’s Emerging Posture Towards Middle East, AfPak appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan is moving toward a paradigm shift in its decade old foreign policy by extending formal invitation to the Russian President to visit Pakistan. This is occurring at a time when its relationship with US has become uncertain. Khar will visit Russia to formally invite Russian President for a visit. The move is part of Pakistan’s effort to make fresh alliances with countries like Russia. If Dmitry Medvedev accepts the invitation, he will be the first Russian head of state to visit Islamabad.

After the NATO Mohmand attack, Pakistan initiated a review of its policy towards US. The parliamentary panel has put forth recommendations for resetting terms of engagement with US. Additionally, it also proposed to upgrade relationship with Moscow. China is also pressing Pakistan and Moscow for reconciliation.
In an unprecedented statement following the NATO attacks on Pakistani check posts, Russia publicly denounced the incident and said that the nation’s sovereignty should always be honored even when hunting terrorists.

A number of high level exchanges have taken place between the two countries. Last year, President Zardari made a trip to Russia. Colonel General Alexander Postnikov, Commander -in-Chief Russian Ground Forces visited Pakistan recently and was given a guard of honor upon arrival.

The post Pakistan To Invite Russian President For A Visit appeared first on Politact.

Russia warned it would block NATO’s supply routes to Afghanistan if the US and NATO forces continued to fail to address Moscow’s concerns. Russian said the Western military alliance must consider its objections regarding US installation of defense shields in Europe. The Russian government has demanded a written guarantee from Washington and NATO, promising that US anti-missile shields will not be used against it. Neither the US nor NATO have so far agreed to the demand.

Russia’s Ambassador to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin threatened that Moscow would withdraw its cooperation if its fears were not placated over US Missile Shield. Meanwhile, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev commented his country would deploy nuclear weapons in response to the growing US military presence in Europe. He further stated Russia would block NATO routes to Afghanistan; NATO has been using routes in Russia for transporting supplies since 2009.

Over the weekend, Pakistan shut down NATO supply lines as it protested NATO attack on its Mohmand check post, killing 24 of Pakistani troops.

The post After Pakistan Blocks NATO’s Afghan Supply Line, Russia Threatens The Same appeared first on Politact.

Russia announced it would publicly endorse Pakistan’s bid for full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was responding on Monday to Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani’s address at the Heads of Government meeting. The Russian Premier told reporters that Pakistan was an important economic and trade partner for Russia and also announced his country’s support for Pakistan’s proposed trade and energy projects.

“Pakistan is not only an important trade and economic partner but also a key Russian partner in South Asia and the Islamic world,” Putin was quoted as saying by ITAR-TASS news agency

Russia will also provided partial funding and technical assistance for:

• CASA-1000, a power transmission plant which will allow for the transfer of electricity from Central Asian states such as Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan
• Expansion of Pakistan Steel Mill ($500m Grant)
• Guddu and Muzaffargarh power plants, and
• Thar Coal project

The post Russia To Support Pakistan’s SCO Membership And Energy Needs appeared first on Politact.