Policy Brief – Vantage Point Analysis

Context

The recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Field Marshal Asim Munir, has stirred considerable global attention in particularly regarding what led to the meeting and what could have been discussed. It marks the first-ever instance of a sitting U.S. president holding a one-on-one meeting with Pakistan’s top military leader—an unprecedented move that reveals deeper shifts in regional strategy and global alignments.

Great Power Rivalry

U.S.-Pakistan relations have always been shaped by broader global dynamics, and the context now is the intensifying great power rivalry, primarily between the U.S., China, and Russia. The escalating Iran-Israel conflagration has added to this.

One of the persistent suggestions coming out of some DC based think-tanks is to avert pushing Pakistan into the full embrace of China. On the other hand, Pakistan has been messaging insistently that it wants to maintain close ties to the US despite its strategic ties to China. The meeting between President Trump and Field Marshal Asim Munir – and what follows – will likely test this. In the unfolding international relations maintaining a balance between great powers is becoming increasingly untenable.

Another critical dimension is the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. In the post October 7, 2023, Hamas led attack on Israel, the geopolitics of Middle East is fast evolving. This has been accompanied by the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and the fall of Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, as part of what many consider the Outside-in Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The likelihood of a broader conflict between Iran and Israel hangs in balance as President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have forged a strong strategic alignment. Netanyahu has tried to ensure that U.S. policy remained closely aligned with Israel’s objective of weakening Iran’s defense capabilities, particularly preventing it from ever acquiring nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran had hoped that Trump would adopt a pragmatic approach and revive nuclear talks leading to easing of economic pressure. To Iran’s disappointment, Trump pursued the reinstatement of “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran – culminating into an attack on its nuclear sites on June 22.

Pakistan has maintained the policy of siding with Iran. In his speech to the diaspora in Washington DC, Field Marshal Asim Munir reportedly cited Pakistan’s ‘clear and strong support’ for Iran in war against Israel. President Trump would have likely discussed Pakistan’s intent and the scope of its support in the background of expanding Israeli-Iran conflict, especially if US gets engaged, as it did on June 22, in eliminating Iran’s nuclear program – or any endeavors to change the regime.

From what has been reported since the meeting, Pakistan has offered to mediate with Iran and to assist President Trump pursue a negotiated solution, as he did with its recent short war with India. After meeting with Field Marshal Asim Munir, Trump had given two weeks window to arrive at a decision on if the US will get directly involved in the war against Iran. However, the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites occurred much before the window for negotiated solution was to expire.

According to some estimates, about 15%-20% of Pakistan’s population belong to Shia sect. Any attack on Iran, regime change, or any subsequent insurgency can have serious consequences for the ethnic and religious harmony in Pakistan and the Islamic regions. A foreign policy alignment too closely with Western military actions against Iran could inflame sectarian tensions at home. It would also put Pakistan and Chinese strategic alignment to the test – as Iran is also an ally of China and Russia. Additionally, the aforementioned nations shared membership in the China dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

US Pakistan Relations

Under President Biden, Pakistan was often viewed critically and often through an India-centric lens, particularly in the context of counter-terrorism. In contrast, the Trump administration was initially expected to adopt a hardline stance toward Pakistan, recent events suggest a pragmatic recalibration driven by strategic needs. Moreover, Pakistan’s government has carried out an active trade and security outreach with the U.S. administration to demonstrate its economic and security potential. In remarks by CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla, or Trump’s own statements, there’s been notable recognition of Pakistan’s role beyond the narrow counterterrorism framework.

The performance of the Pakistani military during the brief conflict with India in May has raised its global stature. While both sides de-escalated after Trump administration negotiated a cease fire, Pakistan’s ability to outmaneuver a much larger adversary, despite its plaguing political and economic challenges, captured international attention and enhanced the credibility of its defense establishment. This strengthened perception has also prompted the US to reconfigure its engagement with Pakistan’s power centers—primarily its military—based on shared regional interests, particularly as tensions in the Middle East escalate.

Allied with the U.S., Pakistan has played a decisive security role in the Cold War and the Campaign Against Extremism. Due to this partnership, it received western economic and military assistance. Pakistan once again stands at the juncture of another critical role involving the change in global balance of power. U.S. would once again desire security relation with Pakistan and furthering of the future envisioned under the Abraham Accords. As the security situation related to Iran worsens, it’s possible that different brands of non-state actors operating from the region and beyond attempt to exploit the situation. Pakistan’s experience in managing extremists could become very useful. For this cooperation, U.S. could potentially assist in dealing with India, undo the suspension of Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), while moving forward with the trade deals.

Civil-Military Imbalance: A Familiar Pattern

While the Trump-Munir meeting may elevate Pakistan’s global profile, it also underscores a persistent internal challenge: the civil-military imbalance. The fact that such a high-level bilateral meeting involved the military chief—and not the elected civilian leadership—highlights the dominance of Pakistan’s military in both foreign policy and national security.

This imbalance perpetuates a troubling precedent in which strategic decisions of national consequence have to be made in private without discussion, consensus, or public ownership. Such secrecy has historically resulted in policies with long-term political, economic, and social consequences—often to the detriment of public trust and national cohesion.

The Trump-Munir meeting is emblematic of a shifting global landscape in which Pakistan finds itself once again at a strategic crossroads. The potential for a renewed, multifaceted partnership with the U.S. is real, but it hinges on careful diplomacy, a balance between competing alliances, and a rethinking of how power is exercised at home. As great power competition intensifies and both the Subcontinent and the Middle East become more volatile, Pakistan may well reemerge as a pivotal actor—if it can navigate both its external relations and internal governance with foresight and integrity.

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According to media reports, she will also update the Japanese side about Pakistan’s efforts against extremism and terrorism. The foreign minister will also participate in the 18th Annual Conference on “Future of Asia”, sponsored by Japan’s Nikkei Group, and present Pakistan’s vision on the future of Asia.

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Context

Tensions between the civilian and military establishments in Pakistan are rising apace as the fallout from the “Memogate” scandal and the NATO Mohmand attack take their toll. Pakistan’s army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani took a five-day trip to China in the midst of the political turmoil, fueling fears that a coup was imminent and he was suring-up support from China. Kayani’s visit to China further underscores the divide between the military and civilian leadership, as well as the important role China has to play in Pakistani foreign affairs.

Analysis

Military-to-military visits between friends and allies are not uncommon by any means, however, they are typically far less high-profile than the one just conducted by Gen. Kayani in China. Kayani flew into China on January 4 for a five-day visit that would include meetings with China’s top military brass, as well as the Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiaboa.

Before Kayani left for China there were already rumors of an impending coup d’etat, so Kayani’s actions were being keenly watched for telltale signs. By most accounts Kayani doesn’t have much of an appetite for a coup, however the widening gap between the military and civilian government puts most cards on the table.

Observers were quick to point out that the reception Kayani received in China was much more the type usually reserved for heads of state, particularly the 75-minute meeting he had with the Chinese Prime Minister. The sentiments Wen Jiaboa expressed to Chinese media after the meeting were also those more appropriate for a visiting head of state than an army chief, which further fueled suspicions that Kiyani was positioning himself for a coup.

Jiaboa reiterated that China was a “true and steadfast friend of Pakistan”, and would work to “safeguard its [Pakistan’s] sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, maintain its national dignity and back the country’s economic growth”. He also noted the special role of Pakistan’s military in strengthening ‘strategic cooperation and partnership’ between the two countries.

After heaping praise on Kayani, China was somewhat embarrassed when Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani chose an interview with Chinese media to lambast the army chief, who was heading home from China at the time. Chinese officials later blocked the interview with Gilani from playing in local media.

The somewhat rash move by Gilani to use Chinese media to attack Kayani while he was in the country may be seen in light of the panic that is supposedly gripping the Prime Minister’s office about an impending coup. An unconfirmed incident on Friday shines more light on the serious concern Gilani has about the military. He reportedly called the British High Commissioner Adam Thomson to ask for support and intervention to stave off a military coup, and while both the Prime Minister’s office and the British High Commission have denied such a call took place, it nevertheless underscores the seriousness of the situation.

China and US – Shifting Regional Interests

The political crisis in Pakistan comes on the backdrop of a shift in focus by regional power players. China has been clearly making inroads into Central Asia and the Middle East, while the US has displayed renewed focus on the Asia Pacific region.

While Sino-Pak relations have been getting closer, the embattled US-Pak relationship is at a standstill following the US attack in Mohmand agency that killed 24 Pakistan soldiers in November of 2011. Resetting of the relations between the two traditional allies would involve dealing with difficult issues involving India, Afghanistan and Iran that are a long way from being solved.

On the flip side, China is seeking to make friends without making enemies by supporting countries, Pakistan included, on some issues and staying quiet on others where they risk angering or upsetting other countries, or where there is more strategic benefit for China is staying silent. This was clear on Kayani’s visit to China, where he received full and open support for issues beneficial to both China and Pakistan, but received no commentary on China’s position vis-à-vis India or Afghanistan.

This policy of the Chinese doesn’t extend to their dealings with the US, where they are more ready to voice disagreement, especially when it comes to the renewed interest in the Asia Pacific region, China’s front yard.

China’s Ministry of Defense has cautioned the US to be “careful in its words and actions” after US President Barack Obama unveiled the new defense strategy with its heavy emphasis on the Asia Pacific. This follows a promise by Australia to host increased numbers of US soldiers at a Darwin military base in early December 2011, and an increased presence in Japan and South Korea.

Going Forward

China’s relationship is an important one for Pakistan on strategic, military and economic levels, and has remained so throughout Pakistan’s history of military and civilian rule. It would not doubt remain so in the event of another coup, which is, despite the fears and hype, quite unlikely at this point. Much more realistic is that the army would support a constitutional dismissal of the government over Memogate, or even over their refusal to reopen corruption cases against President Zardari.

PoliTact will continue to monitor the tensions between the civilian government and the military for signs that the situation is becoming more serious, particularly today’s meeting between Gilani, Kayani and the Pakistani Cabinet Committee, which will be the first meeting between the two since the storm of the Memogate scandal broke out.

The post General Kiyani’s Visit To China And Civil Military Tensions In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

American officials are increasingly acknowledging that a major course-correction in US Pakistan relations is expected. After the November 26th Mohmand strike, the US-Pak counter terrorism alliance has deteriorated seriously. US officials believe that the ties will endure in some form, however, the exact contours will only be known after Pakistan completes its policy review towards US.

On the other hand, China has vowed to support Pakistan in upholding its sovereignty, integrity and independence. The assurance came during the visit of State Councilor Dai Bingguo to Pakistan, marking the 60th anniversary of Sino-Pak relations.

Dai Bingguo said, “Our two sides have signed 6 agreements including the Supplementary Agreement on Extension of Five Year Development Programme on Trade and Economic Cooperation, and a 10-billion-yuan (1.58 billion US dollars) currency swap agreement between People’s Bank of China and the State Bank of Pakistan.”
Dai Bingguo also held In-depth discussions with Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership to promote strategic cooperation.

The post US-Pakistan Relations In Reset As China Assures Pakistan Of Its Support appeared first on Politact.

China, Russia and Turkey lent their backing to Pakistan in light of NATO attacks in Mohmand Agency on Saturday.

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov expressed his sympathies to his Pakistani counterpart, Hina Rabbani Khar, “Leaders of NATO in Afghanistan should carry out a meticulous investigation into this incident,” he told Khar. Lavrov also said Pakistan and Russia shared a close bond as they were partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

On the other hand, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jeichi in a meeting with Khar, also expressed his shock at the incident, and extended his county’s condolences to the people of Pakistan. He called for Pakistan’s sovereignty to be respected and for there to be an investigation into the NATO/ISAF attack.

Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar early on Sunday expressing solidarity with the people and government of Pakistan. Davutoglu told Foreign Minister Khar that as a member of NATO Turkey would call for an impartial inquiry into the attacks. He commented that the loss of Pakistani soldiers was as painful as losing Turkish soldiers.

NATO forces attacked a security post on Saturday killing 24 soldiers. The incident has raised tensions between Islamabad and Washington and has resulted in Pakistan bowing out of the Bonn Conference.

The post China, Russia and Turkey Back Pakistan After Mohmand Attack appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on Thursday assured that recent Pak-China strategic cooperation efforts were not directed against any country. Kayani said,” Any country should not feel any threat from strategic cooperation between Pakistan and China. This cooperation is very crucial for the region. It will lead to peace and stability in the region.”

The general was addressing the concluding ceremony of Pak-China war games alongside Chinese Deputy Chief of General Staff, Hou Shusen. He stressed the joint exercise between the two countries would increase security in the region, and would help curb terrorist activities. Kayani told reporters that Islamabad considered Beijing an all weather friend, and their bond of friendship existed not only between the two governments, but also between the people of the countries. Chinese Deputy Chief of General Staff also said the joint war games would be beneficial for both China and Pakistan.

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The JF-17 fighter jets jointly produced by Pakistan and China debuted at Dubai’s air show on Sunday. The jets were offered at a high discount to compete with western manufacturers. The jets were offered at a competitive price, with 3 JF-17’s costing the same as one F-16. The aircraft a lightweight combat jet specialized in low distance interception. The joint venture by the Aviation Industry of Corporation China and Pakistan Air force boasts excellent handling qualities and modern interface.

The bi annual Dubai Aircraft Show which will continue till Thursday showcases some 1000 aviation models from over 50 countries. The organizers claimed over $26 billion worth of orders have been received on the first day alone.

The post Pak Offers Discounted JF-17 Fighter Jet appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan and China have denied reports that a recent joint military exercise by the two countries is being conducted with the aim of pressuring India. A report published in the Times of India on Saturday however claimed the exercise was an attempt by China to exert pressure on New Delhi along the Pakistani border, which adjoins the Rajasthan desert. The Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, dismissed the reports as baseless.

The Information Office of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense stated on Tuesday, “According to the annual exchange plan between China and Pakistan’s militaries, the two armies will hold the ‘Friendship 2011’ joint anti-terror exercise near Islamabad.” The training which will start on Nov 16 will provide strategic help to Pakistan through the provision of military arms, ammunition, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).

The post Sino-Pakistani Drill Not Meant To Pressure India appeared first on Politact.

Pak-Saudi forces will conduct a three-week long Joint Exercise (AL-SAMSAAM-IV-2011) that got underway today. The Pakistan army and the Royal Saudi Land Forces will partake in joint exercises near Jhelum. A comprehensive training programme will allow for a sharing of knowledge and procedural exercises in drills of low intensity conflict operations at unit and brigade level. The exercise is aimed at improving combat skills against terrorist targets. The SAMSAAM series of joint training have been conducted between the two countries on a biennial basis since 2004.

According to media reports, the intelligence officials of Saudi Arabia, China and Pakistan are to meet today in Pakistan.

The post Pak-Saudi Armed Forces’ Hold Joint Exercise As Intelligence Officials Of Pakistan, China And Saudi Arabia Meet appeared first on Politact.

Chinese Vice Prime Minister of China, Meng Jianzhou arrived in Islamabad on Monday to discuss bilateral relations. Jianzhou who is on a two day visit to Pakistan is expected to meet with President Asif Zardari, and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani as well as top political and military functionaries. Regional security which is on the agenda will also be discussed between the visiting vice premier and military chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) Lt-Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha. Interior Minister of Pakistan Rehman Malik is also expected to meet Jianzhou to discuss the Chinese separatists who were arrested in Pakistan and handed over to Beijing.

The meeting with China’s top leadership is important for Pakistan, as the country needs Chinas support in the light of deteriorating relationships with America.

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