Context

On December 17, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died of a heart attack while aboard a train, according to the official statement released on December 19. So far the transition of power to youngest son Kim Jong Un has been smooth, however this is a tense time for North Korea, and the eyes of the world are keenly focused on the intensely private country.

Analysis

As with most matters pertaining to North Korea, there is very little information available about Kim Jong Un. He was educated at an elite school in Switzerland using a pseudonym, and is believed to be 28 or 29 years old. Late 2010 saw him come into more publicity during a rare convention of the Worker’s Party of North Korea, where he was appointed vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and also to the board of the Central Committee of the Worker’s Party. One day prior to the Party meeting, he was promoted to the equivalent of General, despite having no military experience.

These were taken as clear signs that Kim Jong Un was the appointed successor after his father, taking precedence over two older siblings. It was anticipated that Kim Jong Un would ascend to his leadership role in 2012, with Kim Jong Il retiring, however the death of his father has propelled Kim Jong Un into the spotlight.

The youth and inexperience of Kim Jong Un are issues of concern both inside North Korea and for neighbors and the wider international community. It is thought that the country will be run by Kim Jong Un, his paternal uncle and a selection of the top military while Kim Jong Un grows into his position. Kim junior reportedly exhibits very similar characteristics to his father in temperament, will and determination; however the wave of hyped-up propaganda sweeping North Korea following Kim senior’s death makes it more difficult to determine the true character of the new “Great Comrade.”

There is no doubt that Kim Jong Un is being readily accepted by the North Korean public in the place of his father, however the prospect of shared power in the top echelons of the party after decades of “strongman” rule are a possible point of trouble. Should other members of the Party rise to prominence during the intermittent time between succession and Kim Jong Un being deemed experienced enough, or commanding enough loyalty to rule on his own, then a power struggle could easily ensue.

The time of transition is also a sensitive one in terms of external relations. While there are not the kind of proxy power game possible in North Korea as there are in the newly US-free Iraq, the influence of neighbors and the North’s few allies will be brought to bear on the new leadership. China’s relationship especially will be vital for the new government to maintain.

In the short term, North Korea can be expected to focus predominantly on internal affairs, and at most with relations with the South and China. The new leadership will be looking primarily to solidify its position, and return everyday life in North Korea to normal. No major diplomatic steps or upsets will be desirable during this solidifying time, as the new leadership will be keen to prove its merit first to the people and the rest of the Worker’s Party, before thinking further afield.

In the long term, the North can be expected to maintain a similar trajectory to that of prior to Kim Jong Il’s death. Without any external event to change its course, there will most likely continue to be the same kind of belligerent but back-foot stance maintained to most of the region and the US as was under Kim Jong Il. Kim Jong Un will not seek to make decisions that will in any way appear to be contrary to what his father would have done, because there appears to be a strong desire in the Korean leadership to cast the son in the exact image of his father. This is important both for the North Korean public, as well as the Worker’s Party and military are concerned.

With the succession running smoothly, concerns in Washington and in the region have lessened, although there will continue to be more attention paid to North Korea over the coming months. Unless tensions resurface between the North and South, it is unlikely that North Korea under Kim Jong Un will become a hotspot for trouble in the region in any greater capacity than it already is. The US will be setting more resources aside for monitoring the North, however it is likely Iran will remain the biggest international “pariah” and of greater concern to the US than North Korea.

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Iran and North Korea are working together on weapons programs designed to develop a long-range missile with a capability of carrying nuclear warheads, a leading UK security think tank has claimed. According to a research by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, North Korean weapons programs are now benefiting from Iranian technology. On the other hand, Pyongyang also has technology which can allow Tehran’s uranium enrichment program to increase output. However, there was no concrete proof that North Korea has provided its superior equipment to Iran. The revelation signals a worrying development in the race for nuclear technology by two countries considered the biggest threat to international security.

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Chinese President Hu Jintao met with North Korean leader Kim Jong II in a summit meeting on Wednesday as Beijing advises its long-time ally to reform its ailing financial system and the North requests for food assistance. China is a key economic and diplomatic supporter of North Korea and is determined to prevent a possible collapse of the Kim regime, which has once again asked for international food aid after tough winter weather. The visit comes as an American delegation visits the North to evaluate its food requirements. Chinese foreign ministry has declined to confirm the North Korean leader’s presence in the country, though Premier Web Jiabao has claimed that Beijing invited Kim to study, and expectantly adopt, China’s market oriented reforms.

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Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:”Table Normal”; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:””; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} South Korean official sources said that Kim Jong Un on Friday reportedly crossed into China at the border town of Tumen. The trip is seen as crucial for establishing personal contracts in the country, which is North Korea’s key ally. According to media reports, North Korea’s heir-apparent then went to Mundanjiang, a popular tourist spot. He is also due to visit Changchun and Harbin in north-east of the country. The visit may include a meeting with China’s President Hu Jintao to deliver the right message to the international community. This is the first official foreign trip for Kim Jong Un.

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Context

China on Wednesday rejected a UN’s panel report claiming that prohibited missile material was shared between Iran and North Korea via a third country, which diplomats believe was China. “I totally deny such reports,” said Assistant Foreign Minister Hu Zhengyue. The report said that prohibited technology was moved via an unidentified “neighboring third country” and is believed to have been transferred “on regular scheduled flights of Air Koryo and Iran Air.” Diplomats said that a Chinese official on the UN panel of seven specialists on N. Korea nuclear sanctions declined to sign on to that report.

The report would create some uneasiness between US and China. US would want China and Russia to cooperate on matters related to Iran and Pakistan. According to Iranian Press TV, shipment of fuel for Iranian nuclear plant was transported to the southern city of Bushehr from Russia recently. Based on the details made public by the organization, the fuel was air couriered on three separate planes.

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Context

Senior Chinese and US officials will seek to enhance the vast and often contentious ties between the two nations during two days of strategic talks starting in Washington on Monday. In addition to economic concerns, other issues that will come under discussion include foreign policy, political and security issues, and human rights. Though the talks will cover a range of international affairs from South Asia to the Middle East, the issue that is likely to dominate the talks is that of North Korea, China’s long-time war ally that has long remained at the center of regional tensions. These talks have taken on added emphasis in the wake of Arab spring uprisings and the elimination of Osama bin Laden.

The post Political and Strategic Issues to be Discussed at China-US Talks appeared first on Politact.

The tension between North and South Korea has reached unprecedented levels as Seoul points the finger at Pyongyang for the sinking of the warship Cheonan on March 26. The US is backing Seoul, while Pyongyang is pointing the finger at the US; and China is urging restraint on all sides.

In this Analysis of Perception and Perspective PoliTact examines the evolving relations of Russia, China and US in the Asia Pacific and its impact on Middle East and AfPak region.

Analysis

Investigators from the US, Australia, Sweden and Britain have been working in cooperation with South Korean investigators to comb over the wreckage of the warship Cheonan, which sank mysteriously in the Yellow Sea of March 26. According to the investigation’s report, released on the 18 of May, a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the explosion which tore the ship’s hull in two, killing 46 sailors. According to North Korea, this is a fabrication, and it was a US manufactured sea mine that sunk the ship.

Tensions are at breaking point, and it’s not just between the North and South.

Pyongyang has come out in strong opposition to the indictment, blaming the US for igniting tensions in the region, and fueling the fires of war and accusation in Seoul. North Korea’s official news agency, the KNCA claims that the US is being reckless to so blatantly point the finger at Pyongyang, and that the bravado from the ‘puppet government’ in the South is solely caused by the egging on of its ‘master’ the US-not unfamiliar rhetoric from the North, but they are right in noticing the unusually ‘amped up’ rhetoric coming from the South.

In the previous decade, there was a thawing of the North-South relations, with increased trade, aid and communication, but since taking office in 2008, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has taken a tougher stance against the North, especially since the nuclear issue boiled over. Since the investigation report was released, Lee Myung-bak has implemented a punitive package against the North, including slashing trade ties, barring the North’s ships and resuming anti-north propaganda-all of which the US fully backs and calls “absolutely appropriate.”

Whether or not North Korea did torpedo the Cheonan, the situation at present is dividing the region, and rapidly. The US makes no bones about its full support of South Korea, and other US-backed players in the region, such as Japan, have also thrown their cards in with South Korea. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said in an announcement while in Seoul that “this was an unacceptable provocation by North Korea, and the international community has a responsibility and a duty to respond.” South Korea is not ruling out a war on this issue, so the stakes are high all round.

China is walking a fine line on all sides, as one of the regional heavyweights who chooses to have dealings with the North. It is urging restraint from all parties, lest the region descend rapidly into all-out war. Meanwhile Chinese representatives are staying mum on its ally in the North while undertaking talks with Japan and South Korea about deepening security and economic ties in Seoul.

South Korea has asked China to stand behind the findings of the investigation team, and not veto the proposed UN Security Council resolution condemning the North. China has stated that it will not protect anyone found guilty of the attack, but it was still mulling over the evidence.

North Korea is warning the UN that the Security Council resolution is nothing more than another ‘weapons of mass destruction’ case, a front for “occupy[ing] the Korean Peninsula just as it did Iraq with sheer lies,” according to a statement by KNCA. The KNCA further claims that the US is purposefully backing the South in order to deepen its hold over the South and Japan, as well as putting China in an ‘awkward position’ in the meanwhile.

If there weren’t enough players in the game already, Russia is stating that it may conduct an independent investigation into the alleged torpedoing, and given that Russia also have veto power at the UN Security Council, the South may well be worried if there is indeed any misleading accusations being published about the North. Russia and China are both key players in the stalled six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue. These talks are likely to be further derailed, given that the other three members of the ‘six’ are South Korea, Japan and the US.

The fault lines in US-Russia-China relations are being additionally tested by the situation in the two Koreas, as they are on the Iran nuclear issue, as previously discussed by PoliTact. China and Russia on both fronts are being put in ‘awkward positions’ by the US.

With both China and Russia deepening ties with neighbors and states further afield in the Middle East and AfPak region, the US may be blundering into a situation where it is no longer perceived as a bastion of fair mindedness and justice-in fact, despite the eloquent prose coming from the White house, many people who are subject to the US’s actions-in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and most of the Muslim world, see the US as decidedly the opposite. World opinion of the US aside, alienating both Russia and China on two separate fronts can only bode ill for relations in the region.

If the US keeps ‘picking sides’ while other powers like Russia and China have been trying desperately not to have to, there may come a crisis point where either Russia or China are forced to come out and also ‘pick a side,’ and if that side happens to be on the opposite to the US? The Asia Pacific may well become a concert of war once again.
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The post North and South Korea Tensions Rise As US Points The Finger appeared first on Politact.

Context

US-Japan relations are strained this month as Japanese Prime Minister Yujio Hatoyama tries to make good on an election promise to move the US Okinawa military base off the Island. While it is now very unlikely that Hatoyama will be able to keep his promise, the situation brings into focus the US’s reliance on her allies in the region for providing operational bases and supply lines, as well as the increasing awareness of China’s naval reach and aspirations. Turmoil in Kyrgyzstan has similarly brought the fate of the vital US air base in the country into question, with Russia moving in to secure its eviction.

Analysis

A pre-election promise made by Japan’s Prime Minister Yujio Hatoyama is turning out to be a bone of contention between the US and Japan, but has ultimately served to highlight the two countries’ mutually dependent status-especially when it comes to China.

The US base on Okinawa Island has long been an issue for local residence who complain of the noise and pollution from the base. The previous government had promised to move the base within Okinawa, but Hatoyama went one step further and said he would move the base off the island altogether. Negotiations were tense, but Hatoyama has finally conceded that the base will have to stay on Okinawa, as previously agreed with the former government.

Japan is constrained by several factors in regards to the US bases and US military activity on its sovereign soil:

Japan is reliant on the US in military matters as far as defense is concerned. Japan is feeling the squeeze of increasing Chinese naval activity. The only real counterweight for growing Chinese might lies in building cooperative relationships, especially with the US.

On the other hand, the US is reliant on Japan for giving it a strategic foothold in the area, and Japan has conceded that the US presence in the region is more important than an election promise, even if it is a bitter pill to swallow.

The Hatoyama government was surely influenced in its decision by the recent spout of Chinese long-reach naval operations in its waters, which took the Japanese government totally by surprise. Two naval exercises within Japanese waters took place on March 18 and April 10, on the back of the US-China standoff in the South China Sea in mid-march. Chinese naval activities are showing the world, and clearly showing its neighbors just how far the Chinese naval capacity has come, with improved command and control, flexibility and technology. With China flexing its naval muscle, Japan is in no real position to be bickering with its major defense ally.

Another US military base, this time in the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan, is also under question as the country recovers from an internal uprising in April. The US Manas air base in the north of the country is central to the US’s Afghan war, especially as an alternative supply route from much-used Pakistan. The interim government in Kyrgyzstan says that the fate of the US base is ‘undecided’, but in all likelihood similar constraints that made Japan reconsider its move on the US base in Okinawa will pressure the Kyrgyz government to keep the base as-is.

The only card-yet-played is in the Russian quarter, and this may well see the base evicted yet. Russia has long since eyed the US base with distrust, and sentiments boiled over in 2008 when a senior Russian official told reporters that “In Kyrgyzstan there should only be one base-Russian” while at an interview in Prague.

If the interim government is plied with enough pressure and/or inducements form Moscow, the US base could be in jeopardy, which would make its other bases in the region even more important.

China has stayed silent on the Kyrgyz issue, which indicates that, as PoliTact has previously noted, the US and China have a prickly but valuable relationship-one which China will not lay on the line to interfere with the US bases in either one of its neighbors, Japan or Kyrgyzstan.

While the end-game remains to be seen, it is more than likely that the two US bases in question will remain. This will probably come at a higher rental cost for the US, but the bases are more than strategically valuable enough to be worth the extra cost.

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The post US Military Bases in Jeopardy on Two Fronts in Asia appeared first on Politact.

Context
The demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is growing all over the world. However, because of the fact that such vehicles can be put to lots of uses – surveillance, border patrol, intelligence gathering, attacks on selected targets – the demand is specially high in South and Central Asia. It has been calculated that in South and Central Asia alone, the UAV market for border protection will grow around 25 per cent or more in the years 2010-2015. According to Teal Group, which is an aerospace consultancy, the global spending on unmanned aircrafts will near $55 billion in the next decade. This growth constitutes demand for air, maritime and space unmanned vehicle systems.

Analysis

Drone Technology

There are also confirmed reports of the presence of an unmanned, high-altitude stealth jet drone at the US air base of Bagram, Afghanistan. The RQ-170 Sentinel was manufactured by Lockheed Martin’s Advanced Development Program and has reportedly been deployed for increased intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support for combatant commanders in Afghanistan. The media has further noted its ability to fly over the borders of Iran, China, India and Pakistan for collecting “useful data about missile tests, telemetry, signals and multi-spectral intelligence.” Speculations are rife that the drone, widely known as “The Beast of Kandahar,” is being used for the spying missions in Pakistan and Iran, related most probably to the nuclear programs of these two countries.

The United States is using the Predator UAV successfully against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), effectively killing most of their top leaders. While the Pakistani government openly opposes the use of such methods, observers say that it does not dispute the fact that CIA’s Predator operations in the Pakistani tribal belt have been largely successful. Also, to a large extent, they have supported Pakistan’s own military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan that involve the use of ground troops and the air force.

Meanwhile, the first ever US Air Force unmanned robotic spacecraft, X-37B was launched on April 22 from Florida. Some space experts are calling this new drone as representing the arrival of the “weaponization” or militarization” of space. Other military experts explain that the X-37B is the first unmanned space craft capable of conducting combat missions in space.

Impressed by the performance of US drones against al Qaeda and Taliban, India also wants to deploy drones against Kashmiri Jihadist while Russia might want to use it against Chechens. Israel has also several uses for such technology particularly against Hamas and Hizbollah. Overall, both the Pakistani and Indian militaries are seeking UAVs in large numbers. They are either buying them outright from abroad, developing them on their own or seeking partners for co-development. The versatility and cost effectiveness of UAVs makes them attractive to both militaries. With tensions no better between the neighbors, it is no wonder that the future of UAVs in South and Central Asia is a curve that is set to continually rise.

Indian Drones

The Israelis remain the main suppliers of UAVs to India, selling IAI’s Searcher and Heron UAVs. Another Israeli company, Elbit Systems, is trying to sell Hermes 450, Hermes 900, Skylark I and II UAVs to the Indian military. Additionally the Indian Air Force is seeking the armed Israeli UAV named Harop.

During Aero India 2009 in Bangalore, India’s DRDO put on display the Rustom UAV. The agency is using a design from its light combat aircraft Tejas to build UAVs. The Indian Nishant UAV is used by the Indian Army on the plains of Rajasthan however it cannot climb more than 10,000 feet, so therefore, it cannot be used in high altitude conflicts such as Kargil or Siachen.

Furthermore, the Indian Ministry of Defense wants to procure a number of High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs for the three military services. According to the specifications it has issued, the UAVs should have minimum ceiling altitude of 35,000-feet, 24-hour endurance, 250-km direct line-of-sight data link, etc.

In addition, one Maharashtra based Indian firm will deploy drones to inspect and detect problems with power transmission lines.

In June 2002, Pakistan shot down an Israeli-built Searcher Mark-II, which was on an Indian Air Force mission. Addtionally, the Indians used Israeli UAVs during the Kargil conflict. There have been reports that the Indians may now also use UAVs against the Maoists, who recently killed 75 Indian paramilitary troops in Chhattisgarh state. It will be the first time that UAVs will be used by the Indians in low intensity conflict zones.

Pakistani Drones

Meanwhile, several Pakistani companies are involved in UAV production. One Pakistani firm has made a unique hand-launched mini-rocket UAV, called Firefly. It is a high-speed and a short-range observation system that costs around US$3,000. Another UAV made by the same firm is called Desert Hawk, which has an endurance of two hours. In 2008, Pakistan built the Uqaab UAV, which was launched with much fanfare and initiating ceremony was attended by Chief of the Army Staff.

Pakistan is also acquiring two types of UAVs from Europe. These are the German EMT LUNA short-range battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition UAV and the Italian Galileo Avionica’s Falco tactical unmanned aerial vehicle (TUAV). At the same time Turkey and Pakistan are also working together on development of UAVs.

While Pakistan has sought Predators from Washington, the Obama administration has offered Islamabad unarmed Shadow UAVs for intelligence-gathering purposes. American apprehension perhaps arises from the fact that the technology could make its way to China. However, Pakistan continues to build its case for acquiring armed drones such as Predator and Reaper produced by General Atomics. It wants to eliminate the controversy surrounding the drone attacks taking place in FATA, which have lately been confined to Waziristan area. The country will most likely use US satellites for operating these drones if they get them, as it is unclear if the country posses the requisite space infrastructure. On the other hand, US made drones in Pakistani stockpile makes the Indian nervous as they believe these will eventually be used against them. India is therefore working hard to convince the US Congress and prevent selling of such weapons to Pakistan.

Conclusion

Armed drones have proven to be an effective weapon and tactics against non-state actors involved in asymmetric type warfare. Conventional weapons are largely ineffective against extremist groups, where using them often risk high civilian causalities and possible media exploitation at the hands of terrorists. However, there is a limit to the effectiveness of low flying armed drones when it comes to their use against state actors as they can easily be eliminated by weapons in possession of any moderately capable military. On the other hand, drone such as unarmed Global Hawk which can fly at 60,000 feet for more than 32 hours is a different beast.

The drone race for armed drone of the kinds being used in the AfPak region cannot be understood without comprehending the essential infrastructure it depends on. The drones are integrated with satellite systems to be operational, while being connected to the ground control stations. If these satellites are threatened, the drone technology as well as all other systems and weapons that depend on the global positioning systems become vulnerable.

China particularly is aggressively pursuing the space dual use program, which supposedly has the capacity to counter the space infrastructure of global positioning and targeting systems. In January 2007, China tested its ground based laser ASAT capabilities by shooting down one of its aging weather satellites in space; in September 2008, it launched the BX-1 satellite, deployed through the Shenzou-7 spacecraft. Later the BX-1 satellite and the Shenzou-7 performed a fly-by of the International Space Station (ISS). Furthermore, it was reported that the test proved that the Chinese military can threaten the imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the U. S., Japan, Russia, Israel and Europe. This had prompted the United States to launch its first National Space Policy after a hiatus of ten years, and now the launching of the first ever space drone, X-37b. Space is the final frontier for whoever wants to dominate the land, sea and air on earth.

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Context

President Obama has defined his administration’s foreign policy as one of “engagement” with adversaries and “reengagement” with allies. This is, of course, in marked contrast to the more confrontational approach of his predecessor, which can best be summed up as “Either you are with us or against us.” With the new Democratic administration in place, the emphasis is on the use of economic aid and diplomacy. A new willingness on the part of the US to compromise can be seen in its dealings with Russia regarding the missile defense shield and with Israel regarding settlements. Yet it remains unclear how successful diplomatic overtures, by themselves, will be.

The U.S. is also testing its new modus operandi in Myanmar, in an attempt to counter China and perhaps strengthen India’s position in the Pacific realm and the South and Central Asian Region generally. This analysis explores regional geopolitics in terms of the growing Maoist threat in India, as well as regarding changes in the US-Japan relationship, which has been the mainstay of the balance of power in the Pacific Region since World War II.

Analysis

China benefited from the prevailing ill-will towards the US during the Bush Administration. While much of the world perceived the US as an aggressor, China in contrast was seen as peacefully pursuing its economic interests (in Africa and Latin America, for example), while avoiding military entanglements. As the US imposed sanctions and refrained from trade with countries with poor human rights records, China expanded its influence. Now the United States has come full circle and is attempting a reappraisal of its policies in the region and beyond.

So it should be no surprise that the US has decided to directly engage with Myanmar’s military junta and then gradually ease sanctions if the attempt at a rapprochement works. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s dissident leader, is also supportive of the new plan. The main thrust behind this US policy change can be understood as an attempt to undercut China’s influence in Myanmar and the region.

The US is rolling out its new policy towards Myanmar just as the Maoist insurgency in India is heating up and the country prepares for Operation Green Hunt. Reportedly, the Maoist insurgents have a presence in 20 Indian states. So far the insurgency has claimed the lives of an estimated 950 Indian security officers and India wonders if the Maoists are receiving support from others in the region.

It appears that regional and global tussles are escalating east of India, as they are in the west, and will directly impact Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The Mayday Island, Gwadar and Hambantota sea ports are critical to the hedging strategy China has adopted to preserve an alternative route for access to sea and energy resources, in case the Malacca Strait is blockaded. And no geopolitical analysis of the Pacific realm is complete without attention to the role of Japan. The US-Japanese relationship is being reevaluated by the newly elected Japanese government, led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The DPJ appears poised to fulfill its campaign promises of adopting a more independent foreign policy. For the first time since World War II, Japan and Germany are attempting to redefine their international role and military posture, with profound impact on the regional and global political landscape. The purpose of President Obama’s visit to Japan this month is to settle thorny issues regarding the status of US forces and perhaps sooth Japanese concerns regarding US-China relationship.

It should also be noted that the Russia, China and India (RIC) meeting in Bangalore reportedly failed to develop a common agenda on Afghanistan. This means that US reliance on Pakistan will only increase, in an attempt to develop a solution for Afghanistan. Dealing with Pakistan inadvertently will involve China and this makes the Indians, Russians and the Japanese nervous regarding US intentions. Thus the visit to China by President Obama this month has taken on increased emphasis.

The US engagement in Myanmar can be seen as a challenge to China over Myanmar and Pakistan, perhaps to test its reaction. Additionally, it also counters the budding North Korean and Myanmar’s military ties. This is diplomacy at best, by pressuring China in its sphere of influence US hopes to make the country more amenable to US proposals, regarding Afghanistan in particular. The US also appeared to be testing Russia’s mettle when it announced its plan to install the components of its missile defense system in Russia’s sphere of influence, also known as its Near Abroad. The US ultimately backed down when it realized that Russia could injure US interests in other regions: the Middle East (Iran) Latin America (Venezuela and Cuba) and South and Central Asia (Afghanistan).

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