NATO participated in military airstrikes in Libya to help the National Transitional Council oust Colonel Gaddafi from power.

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Context

Al Qaeda-linked extremists carried out a deadly attack against the Algerian Amenas gas field on January 16. Reportedly, the strike was conducted in retaliation for the military intervention France has initiated in its former colony Mali. French planes had used Algerian airspace for carrying out the strikes. The event has demonstrated the acute risks faced by the energy facilities located throughout the region, including the Gulf States. More importantly, the attack has triggered a renewed phase of European intervention in northern Africa that will have consequences far beyond the region.

Analysis

Evolution of Target Selection

AQ linked extremists routinely carry out retaliatory attacks around the globe. Over time, the types of targets selected have evolved. Obviously, the target selection is based on the strategic intent and the message the extremists want to convey. Additionally, it’s also a reflection of their capability and the vulnerability of a target.

For example, in revenge for Pakistan’s cooperation with NATO forces in Afghanistan, in 2012 a number of sensitive military installations have been targeted. This includes air bases in Kamra, Peshawar, and a naval facility located in Karachi. In a high-profile attack in Benghazi last year, the US embassy was targeted, leading to the death of Ambassador Christopher Stevens. Last Friday, another US embassy was struck, this time in Ankara.

In the Middle East, Saudi national oil company Aramco came under a serious cyber attack in August of last year that damaged more than 30,000 computers. Reportedly, the attempt was to dent the Saudi oil and gas production. The targeting of an Amenas gas field in Algeria had a similar ambition. It supplies about 25% of the gas for Western Europe and the country is the fourth largest producer of gas in Africa. This poses a grave worry for the Europeans, as there appears to be concerted efforts by the AQ-linked extremists to disrupt the energy supplies.

Europeans Return to Africa

Despite the economic pressures and the emergence of more strategic threats in the Pacific, events related to the Arab Spring and extremism have pulled western attention back to the core Islamic regions.

As the US winds down its military campaign in Afghanistan, it has been reluctant to get involved in the developing North African theater of operation, where its interests are less clear. Like in the case of Libya, US is resorting to providing more logistical support, while the French and the British are taking the lead. At the same time, there is growing discussion about a new business model through which the US can lend its awesome logistical capabilities, acquired over decades of large investments in defense research and development, to the Europeans.

The challenge is not all European members of NATO are on the same page on how to deal with future threats. The dynamics that may evolve in Europe may not be much different from what occurred earlier in the last century and in the seventeen and eighteen hundred. During this timeframe, the major European powers were constantly at each other and these tussles were transferred to their respective colonies. Preventing any single power from dominating Europe caused almost constant shuffling of alliances.

As is the case now, even then the challenge was how to pay for the constant wars: the question of raising taxes and competition over trade and market access. The NATO alliance is already grappling with these tough questions. Over time, the present European stagnation is likely to play out in a manner similar to the past.

In this respect, the French military intervention in Mali might be the initiation of bigger fissures within Europe. For now, the British have announced that they will be sending about 360 troops to support the French in Mali. In PoliTact’s forecast for 2012, it was noted that the decline of European Union, the rise of Germany, and the resurgence of Russia, were fundamentally altering the balance of power in Europe. Moreover, the Germans and the Russians have also been moving closer. This transformation makes the French and the British especially uneasy and causes them to look towards the US to counter. However, the US, for the first time, does not want to play a leading role.

Furthermore, PoliTact had also pointed out: “These European tensions are already playing out in other regions of the world, especially in South Asia, Middle East, and North Africa. In the chaos that has resulted from the Arab spring, the European powers appear to be establishing their zones of influence.”

The Spheres of Influence

The spheres of influence conceptualization make further sense as the writ of the states in these regions is fast evaporating. These fears were aggravated this week when protests in Egypt flared up once more causing Defense Minister General Abdel Fattah al-Sissi to warn on Jan 29th about the potential collapse of the state. His statement was reinforced by a similar message by Israeli Air Force Chief Major General Amir Eshel a few hours later, presenting grave concerns about Syria and Egypt. On the Jan 30th, Israel conducted an air strike near Damascus, reportedly to prevent the proliferation of chemical weapons and getting into the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

If the disturbance in Pakistan continues unabated, the events of the Middle East and North Africa may provide a model for what can be the case. This further raises the importance of SCO alliance and escalates the significance of the news that Pakistan has decided to hand over the operation of Gwadar port to a Chinese firm. Even more startling was the statement that came from the Turkish foreign ministry, whose spokesman stated on Jan 31st that Ankara, like Pakistan and India, also desires to attain an observer status on the SCO.

It’s becoming clearer by the day that the existing order has become unsustainable, and attempts to resist the rapid transformation will prove to be ineffective. The key is not only to adapt but also be in a position to shape and influence what is emerging. While the emerging order is not clear yet, the lessons of history should not be taken lightly.

The post Far-Flung Repercussions Of Algerian Gas Field Attack appeared first on Politact.

Context

The assassination of US Ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, has created a foreign policy crisis of sorts for the country. The American think tank community has jumped on examining and understanding the reasons behind the Arab rage, especially when the US had just helped nations like Libya and Egypt creep out from the long shadows of despots.

Some scholars have gone as far as claiming that the future of Arab-American relations will be defined by the response to the attack. There is already a talk to assist the security forces in Libya, to deal with the challenge posed by the rise of Salafists that appear resurgent in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Some of this discussion has the smell of what is called nation building, a premise that failed to work in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On the other hand, Republican US Senator Paul Rand questioned the motive behind sending billions in aid to the so-called allies that don’t act like one. He had proposed cutting funds to Egypt and Libya until the arrest and handover of the perpetrators of US consulate attack to FBI. Although blocked by Democratic Senator Harry Reid, Rand Paul had also suggested stopping US funding to Pakistan for detaining Dr. Shakil Afridi.

War on terror, Arab Spring, anti-Islam events with origins in the West, all played a role in what transpired first in Egypt and Libya and subsequent protest in many Islamic countries.  

Analysis

American Foreign Policy, Arab Spring And War Against Terror

The inconsistency of American foreign policy is a complicating factor. While it is concerned about the rise of Salafist in Egypt and Libya, they are being supported via Qatar and Saudi Arabia in Syria. This elevates mistrust about US intentions in the region.

Meanwhile, the Israeli media has interpreted the events of the Arab world as an attempt by “Extreme Salafists” to take over the “Moderate Islamists” that came to power as a result of the Arab Spring. It blames President Obama for allowing this to happen, and this is likely to become a hot issue in the upcoming American elections and provide the advantage to the Republicans.

Additionally, during the Arab uprisings the rage of the street was directed towards the despotic leaders that could not have remained in power without Western backing, the recent attacks are directed directly at American diplomatic presence, an ominous development. This could symbolize the next phase of the war against terror and US is already preparing for this eventuality. The options are limited, it’s not like the military option has not been tried before.

On the other hand, President Obama’s comment regarding Egypt, that it is neither an ally nor an enemy, seems like the new American posture during this time of transition in the Arab world. The message appears to convey if the new governments of the Arab world take the side of the Islamists, they will be considered as an enemy. Meanwhile, the societies of countries like Egypt and Pakistan have turned increasingly conservative and sympathetic to the message of the Islamists and the space for secular quarters is consistently shrinking.

While the situations of Afghanistan and Middle East are different, NATO’s stance towards Afghanistan appears to be changing. The British Defense Secretary Phillip Hammond commented recently:

“There needs to be, in my judgment, greater weight given to the high-level political initiative for reconciliation. We recognize that Afghan society is such that it is pretty difficult to imagine a situation where there won’t be any level of insurgency … but it is also difficult to imagine in the long run a stable prosperous and sustainable Afghanistan that has not managed to reintegrate and reconcile at least a significant part of the insurgency.”

The Growing Risk Of Home Grown Attack

Without going into details, there is now a pattern to incidences that originate in the West and are disrespectful towards the Muslims. These events create widespread mayhem in the Islamic world and have proven to be devastating for the US and NATO missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Nonetheless, they continue to occur regularly under the freedom of expression clause.

Most dangerously, such events increase the chances of reactionary attacks in the Western world with connections to Muslims living there, with tragic consequences. There is evidence to suggest that Al-Qaeda is working on such a scenario.

Referring to the drone strikes, in his message for the 9/11 anniversary, Ayman Al-Zawahiri stated:

“Today, American Muslims are being killed in Yemen, tomorrow they’re going to be killed (by the US government) in New York and Los Angeles. Get ready for the holocaust.”

On a statement posted online on Saturday, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) stated it was the responsibility of Muslims in the West to go after American interests.

Recognizing the gravity of this threat, Bruce Riedel commented in his recent article that appeared in the Daily Beast:

“When movies are distributed to demonize Islam, they are actually helping it (Al-Qaeda) win its war. When it becomes fashionable to suggest that American Muslims are not really Americans or “us,” then we are the loser. When it is implied a Muslim cannot be President of the United States, then Al-Qaeda gains.”

Conclusion

At this critical juncture, no cookie cutter solutions are available. The military approach has not worked while there is the reluctance to work with moderate Islamists, as their loyalties are doubtful.  The assassination of

The assassination of American ambassador to Libya and the subsequent anti-American protests, are likely to reinforce the message of hardliners in the US. Meanwhile, as a result of kinetic strategies and tactics that continue to be adopted in the war against extremists, anti Americanism keeps growing in the Islamic world while providing fodder for Al Qaeda. In short, this vicious cycle is leading to the growth of conservatives in US and in the Islamic world.

The chances of a major military escalation are considerably amplified by Israeli paranoia over Iran’s nuclear program and the change in its threat perception caused by the Arab Spring.

The post The Changing Middle East And Pressures On American Policy appeared first on Politact.

Tunisia’s Islamist party has emerged victorious in the country’s elections. The Ennahda party won nearly 30% of the 217 seats in the assembly. Other reports have suggested the party obtained close to 50 percent of the votes in Sunday’s elections. Results have not yet been officially declared, however the Tunisian media has declared the party’s victory.

Ennahda has said it wants to implement Shariah law into the country which it claims will be in line with progressive democratic values to include women rights. The party has a huge task ahead of it; the elections on Sunday were the first after the Arab Spring saw the removal of the former dictatorial government. Ennahda on taking over will need to appoint a new interim government and write the country’s constitution.

The post Tunisia’s Moderate Islamist Party Claims Election Victory appeared first on Politact.

Muammar Qaddafi was killed in the midst of a fierce fighting between the National Transitional Council (NTC) fighters and Qaddafi loyalists in Sirte. The acting president of the council, Mahmoud Jibril made the announcement of the leader’s death on Thursday in Tripoli. The circumstances of his death are still unclear, as videos show the former ruler being captured alive. Abdul Hakim Belhaj, an NTC military chief told reporters that Qaddafi had died of his wounds in captivity.

News of the deaths of close aides to Gadaffi has also emerged. The colonel’s son Mutassim, has been confirmed dead by the Libyan Information Minister, Mahmoud Shammam. The former leaders other son, Saif ul Islam is reported to have been captured while escaping.

Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general stated that Gaddafi’s death commenced “a historic transition for Libya”.

The post Muammar Qaddafi killed As Sirte Falls appeared first on Politact.

Context

The Qaddafi regime has fallen, but the fight for Libya is just heating up. In the aftermath of the Libyan rebellion the National Transitional Council is claiming tentative control however the struggle for power in Libya is far from over. European powers are also vying for influence in the post Qaddafi era, with oil assets and billions of dollars of frozen Libyan assets further complicating the mix. On a broader level, today’s resemblance to WWII Middle East politics is unmistakable, especially as we are moments away from seeing a Palestinian State made official at the United Nations.

It is worth watching the relations of former Mandate and colonial powers, such as those of Italy with Libya, Britain with Egypt or France with Tunisia and Syria. Additionally, the relations of the European powers with each other are once again going to play a critical role, as will the tussles of the emerging and established players.

Analysis

The Colonial Experience

Libya, as with many of her fellow states in the Middle East has long been held sway by a patrimonial system of leadership that upheld a feeble state system, bolstered by a bloated coercive arm. In Libya, the coercive arm of the state has been overpowered by a popular uprising, leaving the weak state apparatus to crumble in its wake. In contrast, the Egyptian uprising only managed to topple a figurehead, with the coercive apparatus of the state now more powerful than ever.

This patrimonial system which has formed such an entrenched part of Middle Eastern statehood is what is now under fire across the Arab world, with the “Arab Spring” uprisings all aimed at breaking the strong-man system of rule. However, the history of state-making in the Middle East points at a more complex process than simply instituting democratic rule to replace an autocratic one. One major problems, is that the civilian population in much of the Middle East has been disenfranchised from informing and contributing to its own political infrastructure and thus lack the political culture and experience needed to support democracy.

The present day system stems specifically from the post-World-War-II system of states that was created to replace the European Mandates in Middle Eastern countries. Under the Ottoman Empire, local authorities were allowed to remain as regional leaders (beys) under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire. Ottoman laws and institutions were imposed in a top-down manner, and the network of elite families and notables that collected around the Ottoman beys, form the basis of the ruling class in the Arab world today. These networks survived and indeed flourished in the Mandate controlled Middle East, and after the Mandate system was replaced by sovereign states. The upshot of this history is that the population has not developed a sense of belonging to a state, because the state is an imposed structure that has no organic origins, unlike the many hundreds or years it took Europe to develop the nation-state system.

The Emerging Scenario

What we now see in Libya and in other countries affected by the Arab Spring is the population attempting to participate in the formation of a state to which there is some connection, where the state is no longer just a representative of a privileged elite, rather than the population as a whole.

This is a huge task, given that there are large divides and factions within the Libyan population, and there is also the problem of Libyan assets that are attracting outside attention now that the opportunity presents itself for interested parties to claim a piece of the post-Qaddafi pie.

Just like the discovery of oil in the Gulf changed the politics of the Middle East post World-War-II, so too do Libya’s oil assets set it apart from its neighbors in the Arab Spring. Many see that Libya’s oil and natural gas are the defining reasons why European forces entered the country under UN mandate to impose a no-fly zone. Russia has accused NATO a number of times to have gone beyond the mandate of UN resolution 1979.

With Italy one of Libya’s main energy export markets as well as being a former colonial power in Libya, it is likely we will start to see tussles between European powers vying for oil and gas contracts as well as political influence as the NTC tries to establish a representative government. While European and Arab countries have taken the lead in recognizing the NTC as the sole legitimate representative of Libya, Russia, China and African Union have been reluctant.

Speaking at a press conference in San Salvador on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that his country would not recognize the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the sole legitimate representative of Libya. However, Russia would recognize the NTC as one of the parties in the talks. Lavrov stressed Russia’s commitment to support the political process in Libya. He asserted that “The Russian and Libyan peoples have traditions of friendship, years-long interaction, and we shall continue to act in this vein in the future as well.”
Meanwhile, China has announced that it wishes to promote cooperation and trade relations with Libya following the downfall of the Kaddafi regime. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in a phone call on Tuesday, that his country hoped to play an active role in rebuilding Libya. He also urged the United Nations to lead international efforts in the North African country to ensure a stable transition of power and to strengthen coordination and cooperation with the African Union and Arab League.

On the other hand, France has maintained diplomatic initiative with Libya following the imminent demise of the Qaddafi regime, with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé calling for an immediate ceasefire. France also committed itself to hosting an international meeting of the Libya contact group in Paris next week. The group includes the United States, Britain, Arab states such as Qatar as well as the United Nations and Arab League. Mahmoud Jibril, leader of Libya’s National Transitional Council was also invited to Paris by the French President to discuss Libya’s future. Sarkozy was one of the first world leaders to recognize the rebels and to call for Qaddafi to step down.

European powers may not have a carte-blanche to carve up the Middle East as they did under the Mandate system, however as the political landscape in the region deteriorates, it sets up a scenario where “special” relationships with former colonial powers may be renewed to sure-up positions of power by authorities in the Middle East, or to increase influence in times of flux by the Europeans. In any case, it is worth watching the relations of former Mandate and colonial powers, such as those of Italy with Libya, Britain with Egypt or France with Tunisia and Syria. Additionally, the relations of the European powers with each other are once again going to play a critical role, and so is the politics of the emerging and established players.

The task now for Libya is to try and defy historical trends by creating a sovereign state that the population actually relates to and feels ownership over. This is an extremely tall order, given that tribal allegiances are competing with political allegiances. This is further compounded by a sudden vacuum of coercive power and no overly strong personality coming to the fore able to rally the population into a semblance of unity. There is a very strong possibility that a protracted tribal civil war is on the horizon for Libya.

What Is Next?

Since Qaddafi’s was ousted, many are asking who will be next to fall in the Arab Spring? Syria’s Assad is a likely candidate, which could propel the region’s other simmering conflict, the Israel-Palestine situation, into more heated territory. The question of who will succeed the toppled leaders is a huge weight in Israeli politics, as the “devil you know” has served Israel well in relation to both Egypt and Syria. Already the situation on the Egyptian border with Israel is deteriorating and the removal of Assad is probably unacceptable to Iran.

These worries come on the back of the likely declaration of Palestinian statehood at the UN, which is due to go to vote in September. If the Arab-Israeli conflict heats up again, it is plausible that the US may be dragged into the conflict, especially if the resulting authorities in Israel’s neighboring countries are overwhelmingly anti-Israel.

The most interesting development in this regard came last week when China announced its support for Palestine’s United Nations Statehood bid in September. The declaration came on Thursday during a meeting between Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, Wu Sike and Palestinian leaders in Ramallah. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wu assured the Palestinian people of Beijing’s support for the Palestinian bid.

Clearly, Russia, China and US are not on the same wavelength when it comes to the future of Middle East and the Arab world. Each player is trying to shape the Arab and Muslim world in a fashion that best served their respective purposes and interests, and the struggle is far from over.

The post The Struggle for New Balance Of Power In Libya and Middle East appeared first on Politact.

Speaking at a press conference in San Salvador on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that his country would not recognize the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the sole legitimate representative of Libya. However, Russia would recognize the NTC as one of the parties in the talks. Lavrov stressed Russia’s commitment to support the political process in Libya. He asserted that “The Russian and Libyan peoples have traditions of friendship, years-long interaction, and we shall continue to act in this vein in the future as well.”

The post Russia won’t recognize National Transitional Council appeared first on Politact.

France maintained diplomatic initiative with Libya following the imminent demise of the Qaddafi regime, with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé calling for an immediate ceasefire. France also committed itself to hosting an international meeting of the Libya contact group in Paris next week.
The group includes the United States, Britain, Arab states such as Qatar as well as the United Nations and Arab League. Mahmoud Jibril, leader of Libya’s National Transitional Council was also invited to Paris by the French President to discuss Libya’s future. Sarkozy was one of the first world leaders to recognize the rebels and to call for Qaddafi to step down.

The post France Maintains Diplomatic Initiative On Libya appeared first on Politact.

After cuts in support from the United States, Pakistan is looking towards Saudi Arabia and the UAE for assistance for development projects and repatriation of internally displaced people (IDP). The government is estimated to have spent Rs 45billion to help people affected in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunwa, of which Rs 10 billion was provided by Saudi Arabia to assist refugees to return to Kurram by August 25. The partnership is a sign of improving relations between the two countries which deteriorated over strengthening Pakistan-Iran ties. According to sources, $100 million is expected to be received from Saudi Arabia and UAE as part of efforts to develop the region.

The post Pakistan Tilting To Saudi Arabia, UAE For Assistance In Tribal Areas appeared first on Politact.

According to media reports, Libyan rebel forces have taken control over Tripoli except Bab Al-Aziziyah. National Transitional Council’s senior official Abdullah Almayhop confirmed news that Saif al-Islam, Qaddafi’s eldest son, had been captured. Qaddafi’s gaurds were also said to have surrendered to the opposition. Colonel Qaddafi urged the people to protect the city against the rebels; however the opposition entered the western district of Tripoli on early Sunday evening with almost no sign of resistance, and amidst cheering from residents. According to the spokesman for Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s government Moussa Ibrahim 1,300 people had been killed and 5000 wounded in the fighting in Tripoli.

It is not known if Colonel Qaddafi has fled or if he remains in the country. There are also concerns in western capitals to not declare victory in haste, as was done in the case of Iraq.

The post Libyan Rebels Seize Tripoli, Inch Toward victory appeared first on Politact.