By Dr. Syed Mohammad Ali

Context

While longstanding, relations between the US and Pakistan have experienced much turbulence especially since 9/11. It looks like the unceremonious American exit after two decades of intervention in Afghanistan is going to become another source of contention for this troubled bilateral relationship. Yet, some opportunities still exist for the US and Pakistan to cooperate, especially with regards to ensuring long-term stabilization in Afghanistan.

The story of Pakistan working with Saudi Arabia and the US to help wage a holy war against the Soviets in the 80s is well known. But Pakistan’s security cooperation with US goes back much earlier. Pakistan joined Cold War alliances like the Baghdad Pact in 1955 and the Central Treaty Alliance in 1959. In 1958, Dwight D. Eisenhower even requested Pakistan’s Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for a secret facility, to fly reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union. This arrangement was only uncovered when an American U2 spy plane which flew from Peshawar was shot down in May 1960 by Soviet forces.

In the Global War Against Terror (GWOT), Pakistan was pressured to become a ‘frontline’ state, and to help the US fight the same hardliners it helped create in Afghanistan during the 1980s. Pakistan has repeatedly complained of being embroiled in GWOT and not being adequately appreciated for its cooperation and sacrifices. On the other hand, the US has long suspected Pakistan of being duplicitous and not doing enough to ensure stabilization in Afghanistan.

It took the US almost twenty years to realize that there is no military solution to the Afghan crisis. While American talks with the Taliban have produced lackluster results, these ‘peace’ talks did allow President Trump an opportunity to announce a US military withdrawal. Once the withdrawal decision was made, it has proven very difficult for the incoming Biden administration to reverse course, despite his claims of wanting a ‘responsible exit’.

The US and other NATO allies will probably continue proving financial assistance to Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, including funds to the national army that they created. While the US is withdrawing militarily, the budget request for the next fiscal year is still asking Congress for $3.3bn to support and sustain the Afghan Security Forces, a jump of 9.2 percent from 2021. In addition, the US intends to keep ‘over the horizon’ counter terrorism capabilities in neighboring countries to ensure that ISIS and Al Qaeda are not able to gain enough ground in Afghanistan that they become an international threat again.

Pakistan would logistically have been an ideal base for US counter-terrorism operations, but the Pakistani government has categorically rejected the possibility of such cooperation. Pakistan’s refusal to give the US military bases to undertake operations in Afghanistan is understandable. Such a move would be deeply unpopular given the controversy surrounding tacit Pakistani endorsement of US drone strikes despite the collateral damage caused by them. It may risk fueling extremist attacks within Pakistan, and it may irk the Taliban who have warned neighboring countries of hosting an American military presence.

Media reports reflect that under the Biden administration budget request for fiscal year 2022, some military training and economic assistance for Pakistan is forthcoming, but the overall suspension of military aid that came about in May 2018 remains intact. What will be the actual size of US aid to Pakistan next year, especially if it does not succumb to American pressure to provide it military bases to operate in Afghanistan remains to be seen. Pakistan could be pressured by the US via lending agencies like the IMF. Threatening to blacklist Pakistan using the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) if it refuses to allow the US to operate military bases on its soil would not be fair. But in the realpolitik world, states can often resort to such tactics to try and get what they need.

Emerging Complications and Compulsions

While Pakistan keeps insisting that it is open to any permutation of power sharing which are acceptable to the Afghans, the nation is widely suspected of preferring a hardline Afghan state which would rebuff Indian attempts to encircle Pakistan. The latest Congressional Research Service Report’s assessment of Islamabad’s motives are not too rosy. It concludes that Pakistan will prefer a weak and destabilized Afghanistan, instead of a strong Pashtun-dominated government (which would continue to resist the status of the Durand Line and appeal to Pakistan’s own restive Pashtun minority). Such suspicions are questionable, however, given that destabilization in Afghanistan would incur the hefty cost of another large wave of Afghan refugees pouring into Pakistan. Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions when it comes to ensuring a semblance of order and stability in Afghanistan. The Tajiks will probably continue to resist the Taliban’s attempt to gain complete power over the country, and they will again look towards different regional backers to challenge the Taliban. Turkey’s recent offer to take a lead role in ensuring the security of Kabul airport after the American departure is an interesting twist in this regard, hinting at an expanded Turkish role in Afghanistan in the foreseeable future.

US attempts to support the Afghan national army from being overrun by the Taliban may compel the Taliban to increasingly rely on Al Qaeda’s support. The CIA has also built-up counter-terrorism militias over these past several years, which have problematic human rights records, and these militias may now back varied factions motivated by personal gains. The presence of major illicit arms and drug trade cartels operating in the region could add to the threat of worsening violence.

While Pakistan can play an important role in helping create stability and economic prosperity in Afghanistan, the US continues to view Pakistan from the narrow lens of achieving its own counter-terrorism goals. Pakistan has not done much either to provide alternative pathways to working with the US which could help improve the lives of ordinary people in Afghanistan.

The Way Forward

Recent Pakistani attempts to reboot relations with the US are perhaps too ambitious given US suspicion of China, and the Biden administration’s decision to continue working with India to contain Chinese influence. Instead, Pakistan now needs to focus on more pragmatic and mutually beneficial opportunities for collaboration, such as the need to enable much needed stabilization in Afghanistan.

One possibility in this regard is the activation of the much discussed but still not operationalized reconstruction opportunity zone (ROZ) on both sides of the Durand Line, via which jointly produced Afghan and Pakistani products could be given preferential access to US markets. A well-functioning ROZ could create a strong incentive for Pakistan and Afghanistan to cooperate and it could provide the means for boosting economic sustainability within Afghanistan.

There is ample room for the US and Pakistan to work together to avert escalating chaos in Afghanistan. In his June 21 article in the Washington Post, Prime Minister Khan reiterated his desire to be a willing partner for ensuring peace in conflict-ridden Afghanistan, even though his government is unwilling to host US military bases. He also significantly asserted that Pakistan would reject attempts to impose a government in Kabul though the use of force.

The need for promoting economic connectivity and regional trade to promote lasting peace and security in Afghanistan is well recognized. Within this context, an ROZ between Pakistan and Afghanistan is an idea whose time has come. There is need to show pro-activeness in articulating parameters of such an ROZ, so that needed incentives are in place for boosting economic cooperation between the neighboring states as soon as a power-sharing formula emerges in post-withdrawal Afghanistan.

The post Recalibrating The US-Pakistan Partnership In Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.

Context

As the US and Pakistan continue to bluff and posture to influence each other’s position over Afghanistan, one is hard pressed to think where the relation is heading. After every incident, they appear to kiss and make-up, without budging from their stands or expectations. The US continues to maintain it has a strategic partnership with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan feels its strategic interests have not been looked after in Afghanistan.

The trajectory of events seems to run into a serious crisis every 4 to 6 months. The latest one being the Mohmand Attack, after which Pakistan took several retaliatory steps. These actions appear to be premeditated, as after the Osama Operation, there was a possibility of another unilateral attack. However, after the latest incident, Pakistan claims it would not continue as usual. For the first time, the country has threatened to defend if attacked in the future.

Barring any significant change in the position of both countries, both parties seem to be moving towards confrontation. In this light, understanding the dynamics around the Mohmand Attack becomes critical.

Analysis

It is difficult for the general public to assess what actually may be transpiring between the US and Pakistan as most of the relation is of covert nature. The US judges Pakistan’s performance based on how well it cooperates clandestinely, and this also determines the health of the overt ties between the two countries. Since 9/11, Pakistan has assisted the US in three main areas: allowing the use of its airspace, sharing intelligence, and providing bases. However, the devil is in the details of what these three areas constitutes.

For example, for effective intelligence sharing and for manning US facilities at Pakistani airbases, US boots on the ground were needed. American staff was also needed for providing training to Pakistan’s security forces in latest counter terrorism tactics and for using and monitoring the modern technologies that US gave Pakistan. Moreover, Special Forces advisors were also embedded with Pakistani forces involved in military operations.

Pakistan’s fear has always been that although the focus of the mission was Afghanistan, US personnel may also be conducting activities related to its nuclear program and other objectives it shares with India. Furthermore, they could also be carrying out scanning against China and Iran, from bases and facilities in Pakistan.

To Pakistan, the Raymond Davis incident and OBL operation validated these apprehensions, causing it to curtail its intelligence sharing with US while threatening to close the Shamsi airbase that housed several types of drones. While most of the media attention has focused on the predator done, there are several other types of surveillance and reconnaissance drones present in the region. And, its not clear if they take off from Pakistan or Afghanistan to conduct their activities. Media reports indicate that Global Hawk, another sophisticated surveillance drone, was also present at Shamsi airbase. Additionally, the recent acquisition of RQ-170 stealth drone by Iran has raised concerns in the region. Reports now indicate that the RQ-170 had intruded from Afghanistan.

Based on recent discussions with security and defence analysts from the region, PoliTact was unable to deduce if RQ 170 was ever based in Shamsi airbase. Although they did verify that the site was probably being used for surveillance over Iran and that US bases in Pasni, Dalbandin, Jacobabad, Shamsi, Tarbela and ‘Near Kahuta’ have now been vacated.

If surveillance was indeed carried out against adversaries of US in the region, this would not be the first time Pakistani air base was used. During the Cold War days of the 60s, U2 spy planes used to fly from Peshawar to carry out reconnaissance over Soviet Union. One of these planes was eventually shot down causing an international crisis. The US Badhabar base was ultimately shut down.

The question that emerges now is: by blockading NATO’s supply line, stopping intelligence sharing, and shutting down US facilities, has Pakistan used up all it leverages over US?

Equally, other than suspending military and economic aid, what more can US do to harm Pakistan strategically. India and Afghanistan have already signed the strategic deal and Pakistan’s red lines have all been violated.

On Pakistan’s side, the country has threatened to revoke the use of its airspace in the future. Moreover, it is conducting a review of its US policy. The military orders passed after the Mohmand Attack already declared NATO would now be considered a risk, a fundamental shift in the threat perception of the country. If the orders are taken on face value, it would no longer be possible to conduct business as usual.

If NATO is now a threat, then Taliban and Pakistan share the same threat perception. Moreover, in the future, Pakistan could decide to replace the American bases with Chinese. Keeping in view the recent statements made by President Obama in Australia and the geopolitical situation in the Asia Pacific and Middle East, there is increasing likelihood the Chinese may respond affirmatively to the offer.

From the American side, the pressure could come in the form of isolating Pakistan internationally, by moving to have it declared a state sponsoring terror. Recent activities related to Dr Fai in Washington provide clues towards how Pakistan’s support for Kashmir cause could suffer. Although the present state of affairs between US, China and Russia, makes the prospect of Pakistan attaining the state sponsor of terror label, unlikely.

In this context, there are two ways to interpret the Mohmand Attack. Firstly, while the US has threatened military incursions in the tribal areas, and has actually done so on a limited occasions, it’s more a posture to pressure Pakistan into acting. US would not want to trigger a premature confrontation with China, or push Pakistan decisively in to the Chinese arms.

Keeping the American strategic perspective in mind, this perhaps is inadvertent in the long run, but the point is to delay it as much as possible. If this was indeed the intent, then Mohmand Attack seems to have accomplished just the opposite, and US AfPak policy is now left without any option but Pakistan. The second explanation being, US does not have the privilege of time and it wants to speed up things. This position puts the onus on China i.e., if it wants to confront or allow US to carry on.

The post After Mohmand Attack – The Direction Of US Pakistan Relations appeared first on Politact.