The United States has blocked a French proposal intended to help resume Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas accused Washington of creating hurdles to the Middle East negotiations. Abbas said in the meeting arranged by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Palestine would have asked the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop settlement construction in the West Bank. The Palestinians would in return agree to resume peace talks.

Palestine had earlier submitted a bid to the United Nations for full membership which was opposed by Washington. Previous attempts at dialogue between Tel Aviv and Ramallah broke down in October 2010 when Israel announced it would continue with building of its Jewish settlements.

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Iran has warned Turkey it must rethink its policies or face trouble from its people and neighbors. Tehran accused Ankara of behaving badly against Iran and Syria as well as being influenced by the US. Ayatollah Khamenei’s military advisor said Turkey’s stand on Syria, NATO missile shields, and the promotion of Muslim secularism were unimaginable. Erdogan’s secular model is also at pole ends with the Iranian ideology which has termed the Arab uprising an Islamic one.

Ankara’s concession to NATO in installing its missile shields in its territory seems however to be the thorniest issue. Tehran sees this move as a ploy by US to protect Israel from retaliation if Tel Aviv ever attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened that trade ties between the two countries might suffer if Turkey continues with its policies; Turkey currently imports billions of dollars worth of Iranian gas as well as manufactured goods.

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The US Congress freeze on aid to Palestine has been criticized by US and Palestinian officials. The freeze on $200m aid which focuses on infrastructure and development programs was imposed following Palestinian authorities decision to go ahead with its bid for permanent membership in the UN assembly. Other projects including an $85m five-year plan to improve Palestinian health services is also in jeopardy. However training for Palestine security offices is not affected by the sanction.

The decision has been criticized by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who said the US administration “opposes withholding those funds”. State department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the money was not “only in the interests of the Palestinians, it’s in US interests… we would like to see it go forward.”

Palestinian legislative council member Mustafa Barghouti, Mahmoud also expressed disappointment in the Congress’s decision and warned Palestinians would not “sell freedom for some aid”.

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The US warned Israel of increasing isolation in the Middle East. The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in his visit to the Middle East said that negotiations between Tel Aviv and Ramallah must restart. The defense secretary also urged Israeli leaders to work towards restoring diplomatic relations with Egypt and Turkey. Real security can only be achieved by both a strong diplomatic effort as well as a strong effort to project your military strength,” said Panetta.

Analysis

Analysts have taken the US to be unhappy with Israel’s passivity in the midst of changing political climate in the Middle East. Washington which hoped the Arab Spring would bring democracy into the region, found the emergence of even more hostile regimes. Furthermore, the inclusion of Islamic parties into main stream politics has created a dangerous situation for Israel which seems unable to make diplomacy work in the midst of anti Israeli furor.

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Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu thanked US President Barack Obama on Wednesday for opposing Palestine’s statehood bid in the UN General Assembly. The Israeli president praised his counterpart for seeing negotiations as the way to peace. He said the US president was “wearing a badge of honor” and he hoped other States would follow America’s example. In a joint press conference between the two leaders in New York, President Obama said that the pursuit of long lasting peace was “compatible with Israel’s needs” and “puts Israel’s security at the forefront.”

Obama is also expected to meet Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas later on Wednesday to discuss Palestine’s bid for statehood.

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Context

On September 23, 2011 a line will be drawn in the sand. The Palestinian Authority is adamant they will go through with their pledge to bid for a place at the United Nations and the time has come where every nation in the world will be asked to pick a side. The US has already stated its intention to veto a Palestinian vote at the Security Council and Israel has warned of dire consequences if the Palestinian Authority (PA) go through with the UN membership bid.

The pledge has put US in an awkward position, and China and Russia are positioning themselves to benefit. The Arab Spring provided US with unique policy options as its public perception improved in the region, which have been put at risk by the Palestinian bid. This is a decisive event that will determine the trajectory of relations between many states, and the shape of emerging geopolitics in the Middle East and beyond.

Analysis

Global Power Dynamics

The US has stated that it will veto any Palestinian bid for statehood at the UN Security Council, which places it unequivocally in the Israeli camp. The US also warned both Egypt and Palestinian Authority with suspension of aid.

Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes told the media on Friday, “We’ve been very clear that we don’t believe that unilateral actions through the United Nations will lead to a Palestinian state, that the way to achieve a Palestinian state is through negotiations between the parties,” adding, “That’s the only way you’re going to be able to deal with issues of borders and security, and the future of Jerusalem.”

President Obama has reiterated that he is “deeply committed” to Israeli security. The UN veto pledge is also a security pledge, given that the Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said in August that the Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations was “a more serious threat to Israel than that posed by Hamas.”

US relations with most countries that vote for the establishment of a Palestinian state will not be much affected, save for a few countries that are teetering on the edge of Washington’s displeasure. These countries include Turkey and Egypt whose relations with Israel and the US are likely to suffer after the UN vote on September 23.

Interestingly, China has announced its support for Palestine’s United Nations Statehood bid in September. The announcement came during a meeting in late August between Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, Wu Sike and Palestinian leaders in Ramallah. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wu assured the Palestinian people of Beijing’s support for the Palestinian bid.

Chinese special envoy to the Middle East Wu Sike also met earlier with Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohammad Amr in Cairo. In the meeting Sike voiced China’s desire to develop a cooperative relationship and to further ties between the countries after the removal of Hosni Mubarak from power. China attaches great importance to Egypt’s role in the Middle East and is happy to see historic changes in Egypt, Wu said. The Palestine issue was also discussed with Wu stating that China supported the rights of full sovereignty for Palestinian people and considered the process integral to regional and world stability.

Chinese obviously are placing themselves for a greater influence in the Middle East and this would be a cause of concern for US. However, Chinese have also attempted to allay those fears by the recent high-level visits between Israeli and Chinese leadership.

In an indication of strengthening Israeli-Sino relations, Chief of General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army General Chen Bingde visited Israel in early August. The visit took place at the invitation of IDF Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Benny Gantz. Bingde’s trip occurred after Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Beijing in June, the first trip of an Israeli defense minister to China in 10 years. According to defense officials, Bingde’s trip does not signify changes in Israel’s defense policy with respect to China. In recent years, Israel considerably downgraded its defense relations with Beijing under US pressure, and Israeli firms are forbidden from selling arms to China.

On the other hand, Russia is also positioning itself as the friend of the Arabs, especially as US relations with the Islamic world continues to deteriorate. Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin recently stated that his country would support UN recognition of the Palestinians if they decide to go that route.

”But I must say that we are not pushing them into it,” he said. ”We are saying that, ‘Whatever you decide to do, we will support you’.”

Both Russia and China have both played a very reserved role in Libya as compared to France and England, and have questioned NATO on overextending the mandate given to it by the Security Council. Russia is also playing a similar role regarding Syria and has resisted the imposition of harder measures against the country.

The positions of France, Germany and UK are less clear. However, if the Libyan crisis provides any precedence, France and UK are likely to support the US position, as the EU remains divided. Chancellor, Angela Merkel, had stated on September 9th: “I am not going to disclose today our voting intentions, whatever they may be.

Turkish-Israel Relations

How countries vote at the UN, despite the foregone conclusion that the motion will be vetoed, will directly impact on Israel’s foreign relations. Turkey is one of the countries that will likely see a rapid deterioration in relations with Israel.

Turkey and Israel have been navigating rough waters since the Freedom Flotilla incident, and despite Turkey trying to steer a NATO-friendly course at the beginning of the year, the consequences of worsening Israeli relations will likely push again towards a Middle East centric agenda.

In line with the deterioration of Israeli-Turkish relations, Israel has initiated a defense pact with Greece, a long-standing Turkish rival. There have also been suggestions of Israeli support for Kurdish militants in the north or Iraq, which is a blow aimed at Ankara more than Iraq.

PoliTact’s projection that the issue of Kurdistan will become more heated is verified by these Israelis moves, which are designed to remind Turkey that there are issues Israel can become involved in within Turkey’s neighborhood, just as Turkey has involved itself in Israel’s neighborhood.

The escalation of tension between the two countries comes just days after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan threatened to deploy warships in the Mediterranean: “Israel cannot do whatever it wants in the eastern Mediterranean,” he said. “They will see what our decision will be on this subject. Our navy attack ships can be there at any moment.”

Egypt-Israel Relations

Egypt is another candidate for a rapid deterioration of already-shaky Israeli relations. The cross border issues that have arisen since the removal of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak may well turn hostile in a post-UN vote scenario. Egypt has already sent a not-so-subtle message to Israel by publically dismissing the importance of the Camp David Accord.

After riots at the Israeli embassy in Cairo, Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf stated that “The Camp David agreement is not a sacred thing,” and that “we could make changes if needed.” The timing of these comments by Sharaf, who was speaking to Turkish media at the time, has been greatly inflammatory, particularly as the issue of the embassy riot is still more or less unresolved.

Given the aggressive undertones between Egypt, Turkey and Israel, the reprisals that Israel has promised the Palestinians should they make a bid for statehood at the UN may be the final straw that reopens the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Traditional and social media scenes of Israeli violence against Palestinians will be forthcoming if the Israelis launch an offensive against Palestine, and it will be difficult for neighboring counties to remain inactive, especially given that the Palestinian cause is such a popular issue, and governments are keener than ever to play to the population given the events of the Arab Spring.

The Iranian, Turkish and Saudi Tussles

Syria, despite its troubled domestic situation may be drawn into any conflict that arises in a post-UN vote scenario, and may even use the issue to create a unified purpose in the population and try and mend the deep rifts that have surfaced during the Syrian uprising. Iran will almost certainly be ready for action on Israel, as it will be an opportunity to confront a long-standing foe, and to also increase its influence in Syria, Egypt and Lebanon.

Iran and Turkey may come into conflict in this regard, as both are playing to position themselves as the champion of the Palestinian cause, and to hold greater sway in the affairs of the Arab world. The Saudi’s will do their best to uphold their predominance in the region, and are aligning themselves to take a prominent role in the aftermath of the UN vote. The Saudi’s have already made it clear to the US that despite the political cost, they are prepared to “part ways” with the US on a number of crucial policies issues if it vetoes the Palestinian vote.

The Israeli Reaction

A lot of the possible scenarios that can be envisioned depend on the severity of Israel’s promised response. We know that the Palestinian Authority has vowed to apply for membership at the UN and for statehood to be acknowledged. We know the bid will be unsuccessful because the US has promised to veto it. We know that Israel will punish the Palestinians even though the bid is unsuccessful, maybe more so because the bid is unsuccessful. What we don’t know, and what will determine how far this will escalate is the extent to which Israel enacts its retribution against the Palestinian people.

Firstly, Israel has threatened unspecified action against Palestine if it goes ahead with the UN bid. In the lead up to September 23rd, Israel has upped training for over 100 “settler security teams” comprised of civilian militia that carry Israeli military issue M-16 rifles, in anticipation of unrest at settlement sites. The Yesha Council’s Shlomo Vaknin has that the Israeli army has drawn boundaries around settlements, and has been conducting simulations of what would happen if Palestinian protestors crossed the boundaries.

Onlookers in Israel and abroad are speculating that sanctions, cutting provisions of basic utilities, military action in Gaza, voidance of all Israel-PA agreements and even voidance of the Oslo Accords are on the table if the PA go ahead with the statehood bid. The up-shot of this is that if the Palestinians go to the UN, the most likely scenario is that all the years of work towards reconciliation will be wiped away and the Israel-Palestine conflict will be as a fresh wound.
For Israel, this is a conundrum. On the one hand, they want to be severe with the Palestinians so that another unilateral bid for statehood is not pursued. However they would be well aware that the whole world will be watching them and that there are countries positioned all around that will be drawn to action if they go too far.

Historically, however, Israel has not been shy to act harshly despite the condemnation of the international community. For Israel the choice may well come down to whether it is prepared to face-off against its neighbors in a new era of violence in the Arab-Israel conflict.

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Israel warned Palestine of harsh consequences if it went ahead with plans to seek UN membership as a state. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman gave the warning on Wednesday without elaborating on details. Previously the Foreign Minister had advocated for a hard-line stance on the issue suggesting that Israel sever all relations with the Palestine authorities.

The US has also been scrambling to deter the Palestine authorities. David Hale, a special U.S. envoy for the Middle East, and White House aide Dennis Ross are in the Middle East holding talks to persuade Palestinian leaders to change their decision.

The US has said it will veto any bid of statehood by Palestine in the Security Council.

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US envoys are expected to visit the Middle East in a last minute effort to stop the Palestine bid for UN membership in next week’s General Assembly meeting. The delegation led by US Middle East peace envoy David Hale and senior White House aide Dennis Ross will arrive this week in the region. Senior Palestine official Mohammed Shtayyeh has said his government was willing to listen to proposals, but suggested the talks would do little to dissuade the Palestine efforts.

The US and Israel oppose planned Palestine statehood bid in the UN, urging that talks of a state should be negotiated through direct peace talks between Tel Aviv and Ramallah.

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Turkey’s Prime Minister, Tayyip Erdogan announced his country’s support for the Palestinian bid for statehood calling it “not an option but an obligation.” In an address in Cairo, Erdogan criticized Israel for acting irresponsibly and called for change of government in Syria. Erdogan was met with cheers as left the headquarters of the Arab League. He has garnered much support with Arabs, especially for his tough line on Israel.

The Turkish head of state is touring Arab countries in effort to maximize regional influence, and to sell Turkey’s brand of Islam and democracy to the various nations undergoing radical transformation in the Middle East.

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Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan met with Egypt’s new military rulers in a visit to Cairo on Monday. The meeting was an attempt to strengthen cooperation between the two countries in the post Mubarak era. The Turkish prime minister is expected to also meet his Egyptian counterpart to sign economic, trade and investment accords. A political declaration is set to be signed between the two leaders to create a strategic council for cooperation. Israel will be watching any new regional developments between Egypt and Turkey very closely. It’s once congenial relationship has deteriorated sharply with both countries.

Erdogan is due to visit Tunisia and Libya later in the week in what is seen as a move to expand Turkey’s regional influence.

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