Retaliation was expected from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for or a number of reasons, the most important being the death of Baitullah Mehsud; thus preventive and protective measure were in place. TTP has struck in Peshawar, Kohat, and Bannu, accompanied by assassinations of tribal leaders supporting the government backed militias, the lashkars.

The timing of the weekend attacks is noteworthy, as they occurred against the backdrop of the passage of the Kerry-Lugar bill and the meeting of President Zardari and the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, which he co-chaired with President Obama and Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The meeting was intended to demonstrate global support for Pakistan’s campaign against extremists. The purpose of the TTP’s attack, on the other hand, was to show that it is alive and kicking.

For the extremists to be able to once again penetrate the peripheries of the most secure areas of Peshawar tells volumes about the incapacity of the civilian security apparatus of NWFP/Pukhtunkhwa in particular and Pakistan in general. Like the earlier attack on the PC hotel in Peshawar, this incident could and should have been prevented. After all, three previous attacks have been attempted at the same location.

Here we examine the history of high-profile attacks on Saddar Bazaar in Peshawar and also propose some common sense countermeasures, much needed during times of heightened and unprecedented threat levels. Although these measures relate largely to Peshawar, they can also be successfully employed in other cities. We also look at the volatile geopolitics of the region, especially in light of the US decision to overhaul its missile defense system, to the delight of Russia.

Analysis

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Taliban Targeting Pattern

Saddar Bazaar on the whole presents a valuable target area. Saddar and Qissa Khawani Bazaar are the two most well-known shopping centers of Peshawar.  If Saddar is the shopping area of choice for the middle and upper-classes, Qissa Khawani is a ‘go to’ for working people and much less secure. Both were frequently attacked during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan; the attacks were blamed on the Afghan Intelligence Service, KHAD. Over the years, the government has repeatedly failed to ensure the security of the Bazaar. Past incidents included the bombing of a general store, Wadud Sons, which resulted in the deaths of more than 40 people. In the 80s, a bombing destroyed the nearby office of the Pakistan International Airlines.

The exact location of the present attacks included a wedding hall, a popular upscale carpet shop often frequented by foreigners and a military-affiliated civilian bank, the Askari.  It is worth noting that the exact location had already been subject to attack, albeit with less tragic consequences.  The sorry performance of the civilian security apparatus is inexcusable.

Based on this anecdotal information PoliTact can confidently predict that due to the limited number of high value targets in Peshawar City, Saddar Bazaar will be the scene of more attacks if appropriate countermeasures are not taken immediately.

The TTP has the following targeting pattern:

• Pakistan military-affiliated businesses or in general, locations frequented by present or past military officials or their families (such as Askari Bank, Welfare Shops, etc.).
• Places frequented by foreigners, e.g., Aid and diplomatic officials (such as carpet shops and hotels).
• Clergymen outspokenly critical of Taliban teachings, tactics and strategies.
• Locations connected with Pakistan’s intelligence and security personal, including suspected locations of foreign security and intelligence officials (many of these are located in the Cantonment area and are often accessible from the Khyber Road).
• As in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Police.

Based on the above analysis, it’s not difficult to discover potential Taliban targets in a small city like Peshawar. The next target could easily be the shopping plazas that surround the suburb of University Town, where many foreign officials reside. Another one could be the residences of high-level government officials or the International Airport of Peshawar.

Counter Measures

It’s not enough to simply identify potential threats – one must suggest countermeasures. The following is a list of some simple and commonsensical counter-terrorism measures that can go a long way towards protecting the lives and property of citizens. All emphasize the involvement of the community in civil defense duties.

• Have best trained counter-terrorism experts and security personnel monitor the lower ranks of the police. These individuals often belong to the military. This will ensure that proper security procedures and protocols are being followed, especially during times of national and religious holidays, meals, prayers, night and shift rotation, etc. If this not already taking place, it should be given priority.
• Medium and large-size trucks should never be allowed access to sensitive facilities, so these facilities must not have adjacent parking lots in order to avoid falling victim to VBIEDs.  This should be adopted as a standard security procedure.
• Peshawar’s Saddar Bazaar and many other shopping centers in the country are situated in extremely congested locations. Due to the country’s extraordinary security problems, vehicular traffic in these bazaars should be disallowed. The provision of parking lots that are a 10 to 15 minutes walk from the bazaars can go a long way towards removing the most dangerous threats. Most people will understand the need to exchange a measure of convenience for safety.
• Induct the private guards of the business and shops located in these bazaars into the government-sponsored Civil Security Awareness and Training Program. The objective of these short orientations should be to train these individuals in identifying potential trouble- makers (especially during the stage when extremists carry out surveying and target selection), in addition to providing a better understanding of countermeasures and reporting procedures.
• Use civilian transport system drivers, especially of buses, taxis and rickshaws, as informants to report suspicious activities in the city. Day laborers can also be very useful for monitoring purposes. Some of these techniques have been employed very successfully in Saudi Arabia.
• The Government should develop and sponsor a Community Security Awareness Program using media campaigns. The main goal of these campaigns should be to enhance public awareness of the fact that life cannot be expected to continue normally under the present security conditions; every citizen has an obligation to act as a security guard in his/her neighborhood, as is in countries like Israel, where college students are recruited into highly responsible civil defense and security duties. Pakistan can draw on the experience of the NCC (National Cadet Corps) for this purpose.
• Promote the use of Ring Road as a detour and alternative to the use of Khyber Road and possibly Jamrud Road as well. The use of Khyber Road for commercial traffic, or minimally to trucks and buses, should immediately stop during the emergency period. (If this measure was in place, the suicide attack on the PC Hotel could have been averted.)

Geopolitics

The Pakistani Army has every reason to launch the much-awaited ground operation against TTP in Waziristan, but it has to walk a sensitive line of non-interference with respect to the Afghan Taliban, who have remained friendly towards Pakistan. After the Swat Operation, the United States is once again ratcheting up the pressure. With the US and NATO increasingly caught up in a sticky position in Afghanistan, where the insurgency is fast getting out of control, Pakistan cannot escape some of the blame for the worsening situation there.

After the US decisions to revamp their missile defense system, Russia is courting Iran. How firm Russian and Chinese support of stronger sanctions against Iranian nuclear belligerence will be remains to be seen. Meanwhile China is gradually coming out more strongly against the growing US presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. While there is again much talk in the media of US drone attacks and special forces raids in Quetta and other places, the goal appears more to pressure Pakistan into action in Waziristan than anything else.

From Pakistan’s point of view, the US will sooner or later have to realize that without talks with the Afghan Taliban, the situation in Afghanistan is not going to improve. By changing its stance on the missile defense system in regard to Russia, the US has probably convinced the Taliban that victory is just around the corner. The US needs the help of its ally, Pakistan, more than ever in order to deal with Afghanistan and understands that Pakistan’s willingness to act is predicated on considerations of its security interest vis-a-vis India, as well as the civilian and military aid promised to Pakistan under the Kerry-Lugar bill.

Although President Obama is now approaching a decision regarding a new strategy for Afghanistan, we believe that it will be difficult to reverse or alter the institutional momentum built up over the last eight years. Any change will most likely be incremental.

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Context

As the search for endgame in Afghanistan picks steam, the election cycle of Pakistan is also picking pace, just as it is in US. The attention of Pakistan’s politicians is shifting to politicking at a time when it should be on dealing with the Afghan transition and worsening economic prospects. Presidential elections are slated for November 2012 in US, for 2013 in Pakistan, and for 2014 in Afghanistan. The political strategies that President Karzai, Zardari and Obama develop to deal with their domestic challenges would significantly influence the Afghan reconciliation.

Analysis

President Karzai

The fate of President Hamid Karzai is most at stake from the peace process and US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Although his relation with the US has been a fluctuating affair, it’s no secret that Karzai would not have survived without the protection and patronage of the US. The charges of corruption and controversy surrounding the results of last Afghan election diminish his credibility. Many would comment that his continuing as the president perhaps is most attributable to the lack of a viable alternative. However, that would be underestimating his strengths.

Skillfully navigating the complex regional tribal and ethnic landscape has been Karzai’s strongest ability. Moreover, preventing the rise of a competitor is as much a tradition in tribal societies as it is in the modern day politics, and he has successfully managed that. Absence of an alternative, keeps the coalition forces dependent on Karzai.

Additionally, he has masterfully exploited the sensitivities of Pakistan’s relations with India and the US. The recently agreed Afghanistan-India strategic deal is a case in point. When it comes to connecting with Afghans, Karzai has consistently projected Pakistan as desiring to dominate them and has raised the issue of civilian causalities when it comes to NATO. In short, Karzai benefits from prolonging the endgame, as oppose to quickening the peace process that can potentially end his political career as well.

President Obama

There would be no qualms about how global economic realities are pushing Europe and US for an early resolution of the Afghan situation. As the elections approach in US, the public attention would become more attuned to matters of jobs and less to foreign wars. Since the elimination of Osama bin Laden, it has become harder and harder to justify the hike in defense spending that had followed 911. These pressures are pushing US to reduce its foreign spending and shrink American military presence abroad. The US Congress has already warned to cut foreign aid to Egypt, Palestinian Authority and Pakistan because these countries have lately failed to look after the foreign policy interests of the US.

In October, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had threatened to veto the UN reform bill proposed by House Foreign Affairs Committee, Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. In a letter to the chairwoman, Clinton said the” bill mandates actions that would severely limit the United States’ participation in the United Nations, damaging longstanding treaty commitments under the United Nations Charter and gravely harming US national interests.” It is clear that differences are growing between the Administration and the Congress as ‘isolationist’ tendencies gain. Under these circumstances, it’s the domestic economic realities that will shape President Obama’s re-election strategy.

As the election timeframe nears in the US, President Obama finds himself with the daunting task of finding the right balance between economic and national security. He went with the hardliners early on by allowing a surge, and this makes it easier for him to now take the route of a political solution and to focus on improving the economy. At the time of the unveiling of new Afghan Strategy, in December 2010, President Obama had commented:

“Over the past several years, we have lost that balance. We’ve failed to appreciate the connection between our national security and our economy. In the wake of an economic crisis, too many of our neighbors and friends are out of work and struggle to pay the bills…So we can’t simply afford to ignore the price of these wars.”

President Zardari

As the economic and political realities force US to seek speedy settlement in Afghanistan, its reliance on Pakistan has increased but its leverage has decreased. Prime Minister Gilani recently commented that his government needs political breathing space to cooperate further with US. The political and military setups no longer have this room to continue with the kinetic approach, especially after the Raymond Davis incident and the Osama operation. This probably is one of the other stark facts pushing US towards a political solution.

For President Zardari and Pakistan Peoples Party, a wining re-election strategy would mean to focus more on transforming the economic prospects of the country, battered acutely by the nations fight against terrorism, energy shortages and floods. The improvement in Pakistan-India relations and granting of the MFN status to India is a step in that direction. However, it’s unlikely the dividends from the agreement would start trickling in fast enough to improve the public opinion, and counter the negative perception caused by accusations of rampant corruption. These dynamics, in turn, would stress on US to be more accommodating towards the leading contenders in the emerging political landscape of Pakistan, and attempt to influence the position of these players as it relates to the war against extremists. This is going to be a hard sell, especially when these emerging players will likely excel by exploiting the negative perceptions created by American policies in the region.

Furthermore, as the election cycle gets going in Pakistan, the politicians are increasingly distracted with politicking and ‘horse-trading’. Just as the US would like Pakistan to focus on Afghanistan and the extremists, it would be least inclined to do so. This would inadvertently increase reliance on the military, to provide continuity during this crucial phase of the Afghan conflict.

Conclusion

While the US is moving to a political solution, its closest allies may not be in a position to fully support this shift mainly due their domestic realities. President Karzai does not necessarily benefit from speeding up the political solution; therefore, his strategy is likely to be overtly cooperative but covertly resistant.

Zardari, on the other hand, lacks political capital to be any more helpful than his administration has already been in the fight against extremists.
 Dismal domestic economic prospects are likely to cause Zardari to become more supportive towards US goals, as compared to the military, in hopes that this works in his favor. Although it’s clear, his ability to deliver on any of the promises is minimal. This increases President Obama’s reliance on Pakistan Army to help in the Afghan reconciliation process and, in turn, his reelection bid.

The post The Interplay Of US, Pakistan and Afghan Election Cycles and Reconciliation in Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.

US President Obama led demands by Western countries for Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down, ending months of prevarication. In a statement issued on Thursday, Obama blamed Assad for “ferocious brutality” and announced fresh sanctions against the Syrian regime, including an asset freeze and a ban on business transactions by American citizens. In an apparently coordinated move to maximize diplomatic pressure, British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued simultaneous statements calling Assad to step down “in the best interests of Syria and the unity of its people”. An EU statement made a similar demand and said fresh sanctions were being prepared. However, Russia has demanded Syria be given more time to put reforms in place.

The post Obama Leads Western Demands For Assad’s Departure appeared first on Politact.

US President Barack Obama on Tuesday said that the possibility of a “lone wolf” terrorist strike in America is greater than a coordinated assault such as the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Obama said his government continued to monitor and collect information regarding potential terrorist plots although Al-Qaeda’s strength has been degraded. The president’s remarks came during a television interview at a time when the Americans are preparing to mark the tenth anniversary of hijacked airplanes crashing in Washington, New York and the Pennsylvania countryside.

The post Obama: ‘Lone Wolf’ Terrorist Attack Biggest Worry For US appeared first on Politact.

Last weekend’s helicopter crash that killed 30 American troops and a wave of recent high-profile attacks and assassinations in Afghanistan have raised fears over the extent of Washington’s progress in the conflict. Despite these setbacks, US President Obama pledged on Monday to go ahead with his Afghan war plan. On the other hand, Pentagon also tried to dispel concerns over a militant resurgence.

The post Obama Vows To Go Ahead With Afghan Mission After Copter Crash appeared first on Politact.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Thursday warned lawmakers not to implement a “doomsday mechanism” that will see the Pentagon budget slashed by an additional $600bn, saying that these cuts could severely threaten US national security. The new cuts of $600bn will only kick in if a bipartisan congressional board fails to secure a deal on budget savings worth $1.2tn for the next decade. But even if the likelihood of these cuts has prompted senior officials to express their concerns this week, Panetta made it clear that the cuts would be totally unacceptable to him and President Obama.

The post Panetta Warns Over $600bn Defense Cuts appeared first on Politact.

President Obama and officials from across the political divide were relieved over the compromise to increase the country’s borrowing limit following weeks of bitter partisan battles. However, economic experts believe that concerns still loom over future spending and tax feuds that could ultimately lead to a credit downgrade. The deal did not prevent US stocks to plunge as investors worry about the increasingly gloomy state of the American economy and the likelihood for a reduction of US gold-plated debt rating.

The post US Default Prevented But Economic Fears Remain appeared first on Politact.

US President Barack Obama on Sunday said that the reports coming out from the Syrian city of Hama were “horrifying and demonstrate the true character of the Syrian regime”. The president also said he was shocked by the Syrian administration’s use of force against its own people and pledged to work alongside others to isolate the country’s leader Bashar Al-Assad. According to activists, tanks firing machine guns and shells entered Hama on Sunday, leaving at least 100 people dead.

The post US Shocked By Syrian Brutality appeared first on Politact.

President Obama on Wednesday told Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that he backs Moscow’s mediation initiatives to resolve the Libyan crisis, but on the condition that Col. Muammar Qaddafi should resign. Repeating a stance recently conveyed by American officials, Obama said in a meeting with the Russian minister in White House that he was “prepared to support negotiations that lead to a democratic transition in Libya as long as Qaddafi steps aside.”

Meanwhile, Russia and China have announced they would not participate in a Libya Contact Group conference due to be held on Friday in Istanbul, which will discuss a Turkish backed road-map for a political solution. Russia, which is against NATO campaign in Libya, has turned down the invitation of Turkey, whereas China, which has adopted a non-interference policy, hasn’t confirmed it will attend the conference.

The post US Supports Russian Solution for Libya as Russia and China Stay Away from Turkish Roadmap appeared first on Politact.

In a surprising move, Republicans have offered President Obama a new authority to increase the government’s debt limit, as a last option to prevent the likelihood of the US defaulting on its debt. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday submitted a proposal that would allow the president to ask for an increase in the debt limit of 2.5 trillion dollars. McConnell’s recommendation came as Obama warned that a debt default might delay disability and welfare payments next month.

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