Context

A sea change in the approach to Afghan conflict is coming to the fore. From primarily a military method, matters evolved to a strategy that involved fighting and talking at the same time. Now, NATO and US have thanked Pakistan for letting go of some high profile Taliban in detention, and for facilitating the Afghan-led peace process. Previously, Pakistan was blamed for not doing enough to crack down on Afghan Taliban residing in FATA.

On the other hand, the Taliban have claimed that the released prisoners are no longer important to the movement. Moreover, they declared, the peace process cannot move forward until the NATO forces withdraw. Meanwhile, after being labeled a terrorist outfit, Haqqani network recently asserted if Mullah Omar approves to move forward with the peace process, it would also follow suit.

The change in NATO strategy does not mean it is without options. While Pakistan has remained the focus of attention, recent events have pointed to the suspicious regional role Karzai government is increasingly playing, especially in FATA and Balochistan. However, while speaking at the Center for a New American Security, Leon Panetta reiterated the US position on November 20,

“Look, in many ways, the success in Afghanistan is dependent on having a Pakistan that is willing to confront terrorism on its side of the border and prevent (militant) safe havens,” the secretary commented.

Analysis

Afghanistan, Tribal Areas And Balochistan

During the US election campaign, President Obama stayed away from discussing Afghanistan in detail. Ever since Pakistan declared its acquiesce towards a terrorist label for Haqqani network, the harsher criticism from the American side has ceased. There is another noteworthy change in the region that came about in the aftermath of Malala incident. The US acknowledged that the perpetrator of the attack, Mowlana Fazlullah, was indeed hiding in the North East Afghanistan as claimed by Pakistan. Reportedly, an unnamed US official told The Washington Post “Finding Fazlullah is not a priority because he is not affiliated with al Qaeda or with insurgents targeting the US and Afghan interests.”

In other words, the US conveyed it is concerned about the Haqqanis, not the Fazlullahs. The Americans reciprocated Pakistan in kind. The major reason cited by Pakistan for not acting against Afghan Taliban is that it does not target them.

Earlier in August, Pakistan Interior Minister Rehman Malik had alleged that elements within the Afghan government were likely supporting Fazlullah. He told Reuters “I think some of the elements (of the Afghan government) there are supporters. Maybe state actors, maybe non-state actors.” The logic in the accusation is that same as that leveled against Pakistan for its role in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, the point being that Pakistan is being destabilized from Afghanistan with the active support of Karzai government while NATO forces have intentionally decided to look the other way. This obviously does not bode well for Pak-Afghan relations and the envisioned economic integration of the region.

The Afghan role in the deteriorating situation of Balochistan has also come under focus. In March, Pakistan’s Interior Minister claimed that President Karzai had admitted some inference in Balochistan was taking place from Afghanistan. “President Karzai has promised to stop infiltration of militants from Afghanistan into Pakistan,” Rehman Malik told reporters.

Speaking to Pakistan’s Senate in August, Malik presented the recruitment and training process for those conducting terror-related activities in Balochistan. He elaborated that after receiving basic training in about 45 training camps, brainwashed youngsters are sent to Afghanistan to obtain advance training. For proof, he showed official letters written by the Afghan government to fund and support the activities of Brahmdagh Bugti and his followers.

Afghanistan And India

Another aspect of Pakistan’s concern with Afghanistan has to do with the nature of its ties with India.
President Karzai visited India for five days in mid-November. The two countries previously signed a strategic agreement in 2011 and India has already committed 2 billion in assistance for Afghanistan. During the visit, Karzai was not just seeking more investments, but also testing Indian limits in enhancing the capacity of Afghan security forces. As far as Pakistan is concerned, training of Afghan military forces by India is an extremely sensitive matter.

It is not clear what the US intentions are in regards to India’s military role in Afghanistan. Although India itself is wary of its military involvement, US has encouraged it to take on a more active role once NATO’s begins to limit its military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. There is obviously a risk that in addition to the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan may also become a theater for tussles between India and Pakistan. In the wider politics of Middle East, the NATO and US tilt has thus far been in favor of Sunni groups. This stance is unlikely to change as long as Iran remains a bone of contention.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, And Iran

Although India has abided with western sanctions on Iran and in restricting economic affairs with the country, Afghanistan and Pakistan have continued to deal with it. The insistence of Afghanistan and Pakistan on diversifying economic and energy relations with Iran are few of the other complicating factors when it comes to US-Pakistan relations and the future of Afghanistan. While talking to a private TV channel at the D8 Summit in Islamabad, Ahmedinejad emphasized how Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan can solve many of the regional problems themselves, and foreign presence was the reason for the perpetuating conflict. While Afghanistan has signed an agreement with US allowing it’s military to remain there beyond 2014, Iran has alleged that US bases are being used to destabilize Iran and Pakistan.

(Iranian President also noted that Iran was ready to assist Pakistan in building the infrastructure for the controversial gas pipeline project.)

The Durand Line

Afghanistan also continues to play with Pakistan’s sensitivities when it comes to the Durand Line. The country went in to an uproar when Mark Grossman presented the US position on the issue. In an interview on Afghan TV on October 21, he stated: “Our policy is that border is the international border.”

While talking to reporters in Kandahar on October 23, the new US Ambassador to Afghanistan James Cunningham reiterated “The United States, as many other countries, have long recognized the Durand Line as the boundary between Afghanistan and Pakistan.”

Other commentary that surrounded the debate pointed to the fact that Pakistan’s alarm about Afghan intentions is not that out of place. In all three countries: Pakistan, Afghanistan and India, there are those who want to undo history.

While Pakistan is blamed for the cross-border attacks emanating from Waziristan, what has emerged is that the Afghans and NATO forces are equally at fault for the out of control provinces of Kunar and Nuristan. The security forces of Pakistan have repeatedly suffered under deadly attacks in Bajuar, Swat and Dir, from militants linked to Fazlullah faction. There are fears Taliban resurgence may once again be occurring in the area.

In response to inaction by NATO and Afghan forces, Pakistan is carrying out shelling across the border against the militants. However, Afghans claim the bombardment is causing civilian causalities.

A Senator from Kunar, Rafullah Haidari, commented in September “On the fourth day of Eid, tribal elders held a meeting at the provincial governor’s office and decided to declare Jihad against Pakistan’s invasion into Kunar province. The residents of Kunar are registering their names to defend their soil.”

Conclusion

While millions of Afghans are still in Pakistan, and while it has ruthlessly blamed the country for all that ails it, recent events shed light on the contagious role Afghanistan is willing to play in the region, including in FATA and Balochistan. As the Afghan led peace process moves forward, the nation is likely to use this leverage more and more against Pakistan.

The post Mounting Concerns Regarding Afghanistan’s Regional Motives appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan is moving toward a paradigm shift in its decade old foreign policy by extending formal invitation to the Russian President to visit Pakistan. This is occurring at a time when its relationship with US has become uncertain. Khar will visit Russia to formally invite Russian President for a visit. The move is part of Pakistan’s effort to make fresh alliances with countries like Russia. If Dmitry Medvedev accepts the invitation, he will be the first Russian head of state to visit Islamabad.

After the NATO Mohmand attack, Pakistan initiated a review of its policy towards US. The parliamentary panel has put forth recommendations for resetting terms of engagement with US. Additionally, it also proposed to upgrade relationship with Moscow. China is also pressing Pakistan and Moscow for reconciliation.
In an unprecedented statement following the NATO attacks on Pakistani check posts, Russia publicly denounced the incident and said that the nation’s sovereignty should always be honored even when hunting terrorists.

A number of high level exchanges have taken place between the two countries. Last year, President Zardari made a trip to Russia. Colonel General Alexander Postnikov, Commander -in-Chief Russian Ground Forces visited Pakistan recently and was given a guard of honor upon arrival.

The post Pakistan To Invite Russian President For A Visit appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s powerful military chief on Thursday called for American military assistance to be converted into public aid, a rare move which reflected growing criticism of the country’s security forces at home. A statement issued from General Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani said that funds currently being spent on the military are more urgently require to lessen “the burden on the common man.”

Though the remarks are not likely to have any major short-term impact, it can help shape up growing debate in the US about the justification for paying billions of dollars in aid to a military which many American lawmakers see with great suspicion. Domestically, Kiyani’s comment would help sooth the tense civilian-military relations in the country. Pakistan Army has come under severe criticism related to the discovery of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, US unilateral operation to eliminate him, and Taliban attack on naval facilities in Karachi.

The post Pakistan’s Kiyani: Divert American Aid to Public appeared first on Politact.

Context

In the aftermath of the third round of US-Pakistan strategic talks, held last week in Washington, the likelihood of North Waziristan operation has increased. The promised $2 billion worth of US military assistance for Pakistan and the reported breakdown of peace talks with Taliban have further increased the likelihood of the offensive. Meanwhile, Iran has joined the Afghan Contact Group, which met in Rome, with US acquiescence. This article looks at how Taliban are reacting to these developments in FATA.

The statements coming out of Washington indicate Pakistan Army gave assurances again about conducting a sweep in North Waziristan, however, the country has reiterated that only it will determine the timing of this operation.

In anticipation of the operation statements have emanated from both the Taliban of Pakistan and Afghan origin. If Pakistan was to act, it would raise serious problems for the Afghan Taliban strategy. Local Taliban belonging to the Mujahidin Shura of North Waziristan have stated they would relocate to Afghanistan, in case Pakistan conducts the operation, and threatened to ask Karzai for shelter. The Shura also clarified it would not violate the peace treaty it signed with Pakistan government in 2007, and all incidents would be first investigated.

Analysis

At the same time, the Afghan Haqqani network, which is based in North Waziristan, is trying hard to broker peace in Kurram tribal district. This is occurring after clashes have continued for three years, between local tribes that are for and against Taliban. Kurram borders North Waziristan and is of immense strategic value, as it is located on the Afghan border and quite close to Kabul. The Haqqani network intends to relocate to a new base in Kurram tribal agency before the launch of the offensive.

However, this is not the first time Taliban have attempted to clear out Kurram for their particular use. Pakistani Taliban have for years used ruthless tactics to eradicate the area of forces that have stood in their way, which are mostly Shiites. The Shiites are deeply indignant of Taliban and Al Qaeda and their Wahabi Salafi Islamic doctrine. On their part Al Qaeda and its affiliates, also loath Shiite population, be it in Kurram or Iraq.  According to the religious beliefs of Al Qaeda, Shiites are non-Muslims and traitors and liable to be killed.

Iran has been quite sensitive to the atrocities and mass murders committed by Taliban in Kurram. The Shiites of Kurram Agency, who have religious and cultural affinity with Iran, have been getting consistent flow of weapons and finances from Tehran in its fight against Taliban. This support is believed to be the main reason the anti-Taliban Shiite groups have successfully resisted Taliban taking over the area.

According to PoliTact sources, one of the other objectives of Siraj Haqqani to broker peace in Kurram, is to pacify the influence of Iran. Furthermore, to diminish the possibility and motivation for Iranians to allow the use of its Charbahar port, to supply NATO forces in Afghanistan via Nimroz province. In the aftermath of the closure of Torkham supply route, NATO authorities are trying to organize supplies through other routes, including Iran.

The attempts by the Haqqanis and Taliban to appease Iran, also has another critical reason. Iran continues to overlook the use of its territory, which the potential fighters crossover from Middle East to enter Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan. Taliban want Iran to not produce any impediment in this regard. In the months ahead, this route is going to play a crucial role as US completes its troop surge in Afghanistan.

The above laid out reasons could be why US allowed Iran to join the International Afghan Contact Group meeting in Rome. The group gathers the Afghan government, NATO, the EU, U.N. and other key players to assess progress in Afghanistan. Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan commented that it had no problem with Iran joining the group. However, the reaction of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are far from clear.

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The post The Status of North Waziristan Operation and Taliban Contingency Plans -Haqqani Network, Kurram Agency and Iran appeared first on Politact.

Context
Introduction

In a series of articles, PoliTact is examining the status of Taliban insurgency in each one of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. Any realistic assessment of this region has to rely on independent and first hand access to the facts on the ground, to draw any meaningful conclusions or projections. In our previous study, we have examined the dynamics of Orakzai Agency and this article looks at Kurram Agency.

Kurram Agency is one of the most strategic located Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. As with other parts of FATA, it has also been severely affected by the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda insurgency during the last decade. Since the rise of Pakistani Taliban groups in the country’s Pakhtoon tribal belt in 2004, and as a result of gradual relocation of Al Qaeda leadership and rank and file from Afghanistan, Kurram Agency has seen numerous clashes.

These clashes have been between the Shia majority population of Kurram tribal district and the extremely anti-Shia, Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters backed by local Sunnis. The biggest tribe in the Kurram Agency, Turi, is predominantly Shia while there is also a sizable population of Sunnis living in the area. The Sunni tribes include Zazi, Chamkani and some clans of Bangash; most of the clans of Bangash tribe of Upper Kurram are Shia. According to one estimate the Shias of Kurram Agency represents 20% of the total Shia population of Pakistan.

Analysis

Background

The ongoing wave of violence in the tribal agency began in April 2007 and after a brief lull, resurged in November of that year. According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 2010 a total of 219 peoples have died in FATA due to suicide attacks. A total of 313 have died as a result of bomb blasts, of which 26 were related to Kurram Agency. A total of 28 people have fallen victim to sectarian violence in Kurram this year. The residents of the area have suffered a lot due to road closures. Violence in particular has made the road which connects the agency to Peshawar, through Hangu, Kohat and Darra Adam Khel, totally unusable.

A large number of Kurram dwellers have relocated to other areas to avoid harm while those still living there are deeply stressed due to the security situation. The violence in Kurram Agency has also caused material losses estimated to be in billions of rupees. This is the longest period of ongoing bloodshed the tribal agency has seen, lasting for more than a year; it was usual for spats of violence to subside within days.

In light of discussions with several inhabitants from Kurram, PoliTact has learned the following. According to public perception, majority of the clashes in Kurram Agency are not actually sectarian but given such a spin by Pakistani establishment. This is in stark contrast to opinions held in other parts of Pakistan that hold India, Afghanistan and the NATO coalition responsible for destabilizing FATA.

The violence in Kurram is triggered and sustained by the Taliban from the neighboring North Waziristan Agency. Importantly, the current Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) head, Hakimullah Mehsud, was previously the commander of Kurram along with Orakzai and Khyber tribal districts of FATA. Hakimullah succeeded TTP founder Baitullah Mehsud after he was killed in a 2009 US drone attack.

The reason for Taliban to move to Kurram Agency is to dislocate the Shia population from the strategically located border with Afghanistan, which the Taliban wanted to use. However, historically people of Kurram Agency have always resisted the attempts to use their territory. In order to marginalize Shias and stop them from preventing militants crossing into Afghanistan or providing NATO-US or Afghan government information about militants activities, Taliban-Al Qaeda nexus devised a strategy to kill and terrorize Shias in the region.

The ongoing violence in Kurram Agency and the subsequent closure of the road has left the Shias living in Upper Kurram, towards the border, facing an extreme situation and with feelings of abandonment and resentment. They are cut off from the rest of Pakistan and there is no real attempt by the authorities to reopen the vital roadway. According to former chief secretary of NWFP (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Khalid Aziz, Shias of Kurram Agency on one occasion petitioned the Afghan government and NATO forces to enter their territory, as there was no writ of Pakistan in these areas while they they have been left at the mercy of Taliban. According to data collected by the Long War Journal, a total of 3 drone strikes have occurred in Kurram Agency from 2004 to 2010.

Strategic Distinction of Kurram Agency

The religious profile of Kurram Agency sets it apart from other tribal districts of FATA. Along with Orakzai, the districts are the only two places where there is a large Shia population. However, it is only in Kurram where Shias are in majority. The Pakistani Taliban and their Al Qaeda guest fighters have tried to stir up sectarian sentiments is Kurram resulting in violence against Shias. In this respect the local Sunni militants have been greatly supported by Pakistani Taliban militants from other areas of FATA, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province and the so-called Punjabi Taliban.

An important reason why the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda have concentrated so specially on Kurram Agency has been its immense geo-strategic importance from the insurgent’s standpoint. The tribal district is located on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and is just 100 kilometers from the Afghan capital of Kabul, and is also know by the name of ‘Parrots Beak’. On the southwest of Kurram is located the North Waziristan tribal agency, which is more or less ruled by Pakistani Taliban groups led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur. The base of the Afghan militant Haqqani Network is also located in North Waziristan. Presently the largest hub of TTP is in Orakzai Agency and is located to the Southeast of Kurram. Kurram Agency also provides easy strategic access to an important region of Afghanistan comprising Nangarhar and Kabul provinces. The Afghan and NATO forces have faced the stiffest resistance in the adjacent areas of Gardez and Khost. The insurgents can easily attack Coalition and Afghan forces in Afghanistan and also readily withdraw, making full use of the territory of the Kurram Agency and the strategic advantages it affords them.

However, unlike other tribal districts the local Shia population has greatly resisted the extremists, including using armed defiance. As a result the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda have not been able to maintain a hold over Kurram. In order to pressurize the Shia population to give up resistance, Taliban insurgents have blocked the main road that connects Upper Kurram with Peshawar, and thus exert economic strain on the local population.

Peshawar, the provincial capital, has been the health, education and business hub for most of FATA. Most of the province including FATA have traditionally been dependent on the city for the supplies of essential items and staples. The Taliban and Al Qaeda have successfully managed to keep the road between Kurram and Peshawar shut for almost three years. Although Pakistani authorities opened up the road after several military offensives in the recent past, Shia travelers have constantly come under attack from Taliban operatives.

Parties Involved in the Violence

The local Taliban are fighting the Shia under the name Mahdi Militia while the opposing Shia force goes by the name of Hizbullah, though without connection to the Iranian-backed group of the same name in Lebanon. However, to view the situation in the region in isolation from the larger Shia-Sunni tensions of the Middle East would be naive.

The second major element responsible for violence in Kurram Agency has been confrontation between Mangal and Tori tribes living near the Pak-Afghan border. Both the tribes often indulge in skirmishes with each other on petty issues like water, cattle-heads, wood-cutting and others. These kinds of disputes are often given a sectarian color but these are enmities and disputes which often result in violence . The non-sectarian nature of the Tori-Mangal disputes prompted the four main tribes of central Kurram — Para Chamkani, Ali Sherzai, Masoozai and Zeahmusht — to refuse to take part in the clashes, stating that they would not be a party to domestic-type issues between the Tori and Mangal tribes. However, there has been local suspicion that Pakistani intelligence agencies have been fanning the flames of sectarianism between the two tribes.

Peace Initiative

A peace initiative by the civilian political administration was started by the then Political Agent of Kurram Agency, Zahir-ul-Islam, which culminated in an agreement in January 2008 between warring factions in Kurram Agency. Under this agreement:

• Tal-Parachanar highway leading towards Peshawar and other roads would be opened.
• Both parties would come out of their trenches and the bunkers would be handed over to security forces.
• If any party violated the agreement, a fine of Rupees 40 million would be received from the faction.

The peace deal was finalized through a 50-member jirga of council of elders by the political administration. However the Taliban and two other militias have kept on carrying out activities in violation of that accord. Therefore, when there have been naked violations of the peace terms the government convened the same jirga in Peshawar to try and affix responsibility. The jirga included 25 elders each from the Shia and Sunni sects of Kurram Agency. However, the two sides could not reach a final decision after several rounds of government-sponsored deliberations.

There has been no improvement in the security situation of Kurram with the conditions going from bad to worse. According to various experts, Pakistani authorities have almost lost control and credibility in the area, making it very challenging to implement the existing peace agreement or attempt a new treaty.

Media reports indicate today that a fresh attempt towards bringing peace to Kurrum is being made. PoliTact will continue to monitor the dynamics of this key tribal agency of FATA, Pakistan.

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