Context

The Qaddafi regime has fallen, but the fight for Libya is just heating up. In the aftermath of the Libyan rebellion the National Transitional Council is claiming tentative control however the struggle for power in Libya is far from over. European powers are also vying for influence in the post Qaddafi era, with oil assets and billions of dollars of frozen Libyan assets further complicating the mix. On a broader level, today’s resemblance to WWII Middle East politics is unmistakable, especially as we are moments away from seeing a Palestinian State made official at the United Nations.

It is worth watching the relations of former Mandate and colonial powers, such as those of Italy with Libya, Britain with Egypt or France with Tunisia and Syria. Additionally, the relations of the European powers with each other are once again going to play a critical role, as will the tussles of the emerging and established players.

Analysis

The Colonial Experience

Libya, as with many of her fellow states in the Middle East has long been held sway by a patrimonial system of leadership that upheld a feeble state system, bolstered by a bloated coercive arm. In Libya, the coercive arm of the state has been overpowered by a popular uprising, leaving the weak state apparatus to crumble in its wake. In contrast, the Egyptian uprising only managed to topple a figurehead, with the coercive apparatus of the state now more powerful than ever.

This patrimonial system which has formed such an entrenched part of Middle Eastern statehood is what is now under fire across the Arab world, with the “Arab Spring” uprisings all aimed at breaking the strong-man system of rule. However, the history of state-making in the Middle East points at a more complex process than simply instituting democratic rule to replace an autocratic one. One major problems, is that the civilian population in much of the Middle East has been disenfranchised from informing and contributing to its own political infrastructure and thus lack the political culture and experience needed to support democracy.

The present day system stems specifically from the post-World-War-II system of states that was created to replace the European Mandates in Middle Eastern countries. Under the Ottoman Empire, local authorities were allowed to remain as regional leaders (beys) under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire. Ottoman laws and institutions were imposed in a top-down manner, and the network of elite families and notables that collected around the Ottoman beys, form the basis of the ruling class in the Arab world today. These networks survived and indeed flourished in the Mandate controlled Middle East, and after the Mandate system was replaced by sovereign states. The upshot of this history is that the population has not developed a sense of belonging to a state, because the state is an imposed structure that has no organic origins, unlike the many hundreds or years it took Europe to develop the nation-state system.

The Emerging Scenario

What we now see in Libya and in other countries affected by the Arab Spring is the population attempting to participate in the formation of a state to which there is some connection, where the state is no longer just a representative of a privileged elite, rather than the population as a whole.

This is a huge task, given that there are large divides and factions within the Libyan population, and there is also the problem of Libyan assets that are attracting outside attention now that the opportunity presents itself for interested parties to claim a piece of the post-Qaddafi pie.

Just like the discovery of oil in the Gulf changed the politics of the Middle East post World-War-II, so too do Libya’s oil assets set it apart from its neighbors in the Arab Spring. Many see that Libya’s oil and natural gas are the defining reasons why European forces entered the country under UN mandate to impose a no-fly zone. Russia has accused NATO a number of times to have gone beyond the mandate of UN resolution 1979.

With Italy one of Libya’s main energy export markets as well as being a former colonial power in Libya, it is likely we will start to see tussles between European powers vying for oil and gas contracts as well as political influence as the NTC tries to establish a representative government. While European and Arab countries have taken the lead in recognizing the NTC as the sole legitimate representative of Libya, Russia, China and African Union have been reluctant.

Speaking at a press conference in San Salvador on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that his country would not recognize the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the sole legitimate representative of Libya. However, Russia would recognize the NTC as one of the parties in the talks. Lavrov stressed Russia’s commitment to support the political process in Libya. He asserted that “The Russian and Libyan peoples have traditions of friendship, years-long interaction, and we shall continue to act in this vein in the future as well.”
Meanwhile, China has announced that it wishes to promote cooperation and trade relations with Libya following the downfall of the Kaddafi regime. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in a phone call on Tuesday, that his country hoped to play an active role in rebuilding Libya. He also urged the United Nations to lead international efforts in the North African country to ensure a stable transition of power and to strengthen coordination and cooperation with the African Union and Arab League.

On the other hand, France has maintained diplomatic initiative with Libya following the imminent demise of the Qaddafi regime, with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé calling for an immediate ceasefire. France also committed itself to hosting an international meeting of the Libya contact group in Paris next week. The group includes the United States, Britain, Arab states such as Qatar as well as the United Nations and Arab League. Mahmoud Jibril, leader of Libya’s National Transitional Council was also invited to Paris by the French President to discuss Libya’s future. Sarkozy was one of the first world leaders to recognize the rebels and to call for Qaddafi to step down.

European powers may not have a carte-blanche to carve up the Middle East as they did under the Mandate system, however as the political landscape in the region deteriorates, it sets up a scenario where “special” relationships with former colonial powers may be renewed to sure-up positions of power by authorities in the Middle East, or to increase influence in times of flux by the Europeans. In any case, it is worth watching the relations of former Mandate and colonial powers, such as those of Italy with Libya, Britain with Egypt or France with Tunisia and Syria. Additionally, the relations of the European powers with each other are once again going to play a critical role, and so is the politics of the emerging and established players.

The task now for Libya is to try and defy historical trends by creating a sovereign state that the population actually relates to and feels ownership over. This is an extremely tall order, given that tribal allegiances are competing with political allegiances. This is further compounded by a sudden vacuum of coercive power and no overly strong personality coming to the fore able to rally the population into a semblance of unity. There is a very strong possibility that a protracted tribal civil war is on the horizon for Libya.

What Is Next?

Since Qaddafi’s was ousted, many are asking who will be next to fall in the Arab Spring? Syria’s Assad is a likely candidate, which could propel the region’s other simmering conflict, the Israel-Palestine situation, into more heated territory. The question of who will succeed the toppled leaders is a huge weight in Israeli politics, as the “devil you know” has served Israel well in relation to both Egypt and Syria. Already the situation on the Egyptian border with Israel is deteriorating and the removal of Assad is probably unacceptable to Iran.

These worries come on the back of the likely declaration of Palestinian statehood at the UN, which is due to go to vote in September. If the Arab-Israeli conflict heats up again, it is plausible that the US may be dragged into the conflict, especially if the resulting authorities in Israel’s neighboring countries are overwhelmingly anti-Israel.

The most interesting development in this regard came last week when China announced its support for Palestine’s United Nations Statehood bid in September. The declaration came on Thursday during a meeting between Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, Wu Sike and Palestinian leaders in Ramallah. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wu assured the Palestinian people of Beijing’s support for the Palestinian bid.

Clearly, Russia, China and US are not on the same wavelength when it comes to the future of Middle East and the Arab world. Each player is trying to shape the Arab and Muslim world in a fashion that best served their respective purposes and interests, and the struggle is far from over.

The post The Struggle for New Balance Of Power In Libya and Middle East appeared first on Politact.

Muammar Gaddafi’s tottering regime on Thursday called for an immediate truce in Libya, as rebel fighters claimed they had taken control of a major oil refinery in the western township of Zawiyah. Rebels have been trying to cut Tripoli’s supply lines from Gaddafi’s birthplace of Sirte to the east and Tunisia in the west in a move they believe will isolate the capital, spark defections and prompt unrest inside Tripoli. Meanwhile, Libya’s Prime Minister Baghdadi Mahmudi has rejected the claim while announcing his intentions to put an immediate end to the conflict through a dialogue. He revealed that “contact” has been made in recent days to seek a political solution.

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The UK has officially recognized the main Libyan opposition group as the legitimate government of the country, and instructed all diplomats belonging to Col. Muammar Qaddafi’s administration to leave Britain. Foreign Secretary William Hague on Wednesday announced that the UK would freeze $150m worth of Libya’s oil assets to assist the National Transitional Council (NTC), which the country recognizes as “the sole governmental authority in Libya”. Meanwhile, Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Karim told reporters in Tripoli that the UK’s decision to recognize the NTC was “irresponsible, illegal and in violation of British and international laws.”

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Muammar Qaddafi could be allowed to stay in Libya given that he steps down, according to France, indicating a new initiative to find a political solution to a military campaign that has up to now failed to overthrow the Libyan leader. Talking to France’s LCI TV, Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said global powers were ready to allow Qaddafi to stay in Libya once he quits. The new proposal reflects an understanding that it will be difficult, if not impossible, to drive Qaddafi out of Tripoli by persuasion or force.

The post France: Qaddafi Could Be Allowed To Stay In Libya appeared first on Politact.

Context

Turkey began the year already considered a runner for increasing influence in the Middle East and North Africa. With the aftermath of the May 2010 Freedom Flotilla incident positing Turkey in a new, unfriendly dynamic with Israel and increasing cooperation with Iran, Turkey was seen to be positioning itself for undertaking a leadership role in the Arab world with an eye for an anti western-influence approach.

The NATO efforts in Libya were opposed by Turkey at the onset and the nation seemed to be following through on its new Arab-centric route, however, in recent times the tone coming out of Ankara has been markedly different from that of the beginning of the year, especially as affairs in Syria started to deteriorate. Indeed the Turkish perspective appears to have shifted much more to a pro-NATO, Israel-friendly one. This article looks at the evolving role of Turkey and what it means for other regional contenders, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Analysis

As the US starts to withdraw forces from Iraq and Afghanistan and initiates negotiations on the Status of Forces Agreements (SOFA) with these countries, the irredentist claims presented by the Kurds, Pastuns and Baluchs are likely to escalate. These claims present an opportunity to keep the regional powers off balance.

(The article includes a map.)

The Syria Factor

The shift invariably came with the onset of trouble in Syria. Syria and Turkey have traditionally been friendly and the border they share relatively peaceful. With Iran and Syria having close ties, the initial Turkish approach would have included warmer ties with these two countries, which necessitates a position away from western influence and good ties with Israel. However, civil unrest and crackdown by the Syrian government against civilians has presented a moral dilemma for Turkey. Assad has continued to ignore requests from Ankara to stop the brutalities against protesters and enter into meaningful reforms, pushing Ankara towards a breaking point in its relationship with Syria.

Perhaps Turkey has seen that with a change in tone it could now enjoy the backing of the EU, the US and even Russia in its stance as a new regional leader. Its nearest competitor, Iran, would never be able to gain such support, with conceivably the exception of Russia. That being said, Turkey is by no means aiming to blindside Iranian relations. Turkish and Persian relations have been steadily building over the past two or three years, with Turkey maintaining close economic ties with Iran, notably in the energy sector.

Turkey’s role as a mediator in the 2010 nuclear swap deal with Iran was a clear demonstration of Turkey’s ability to play a significant part in affairs of the region and sets a precedent for its inclusion into the stagnant Middle East Peace Process. Turkish prowess in mediatory roles was also showcased in talks between Israel and Syria back in 2008. However, Syria is increasingly becoming a thorn complicating Turkeys relations with Iran and other Arab countries.

Turkey’s Evolving Positions

The other factor pushing Turkey to the fore in the Middle East is the loss of credibility in other Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. These countries previously held a strong position in regional affairs, but the Arab Spring, and the reasons that led to it, has taken its toll on their standing. Egypt is still coming to grips with the change in its internal circumstances and Saudi Arabia is trying to balance turmoil on its borders with Yemen as well as unrest in Bahrain with its own civil unrest.

This month’s meeting of the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC) in Istanbul sends another message of Turkish dominance in Middle Eastern affairs. It also signifies Turkey’s stepping more into line with the NATO alliance and their actions in Libya. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu officially recognized the rebel government in Libya and pledged $200mn in aid during a trip to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi last Sunday. “Gaddafi should leave power and a genuine political change based on the demands and aspirations of the Libyan people should be realized,” Davutoglu said during the trip. “The unity of Libya must be protected.” The recognition comes just one day after the Turkish government announced it is closing down its embassy in the Libyan capital Tripoli.

Compare the above statements to the ones Turkish leaders made towards the start of the Libyan crisis: “Reporters have been asking me whether or not NATO should intervene in Libya. It is such nonsense. What does NATO have to do with Libya? NATO’s intervention in Libya is out of the question. We are against such a thing,” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had stated while delivering a speech to the Turkish-German Economy Congress in Hanover, Germany.

When the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Libya in February, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated, “Sanctions, an intervention, would force the Libyan people, who are already up against hunger and violence, into a more desperate situation. We call on the international community to act with conscience, justice, laws and universal humane values – not out of oil concerns.”

On Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) intervention in Bahrain Turkish PM Erdogan had said it could not be termed as foreign intrusion since it is a regional task force that is recognized internationally. On the other hand, speaking on the Middle East revolt, Erdogan had earlier stated that the Arab leaders need to realize that they can’t suppress the demand for change through violence or force.

Neo-Ottoman Ambitions

While Ankara is very keen to give off the impression of a benevolent benefactor, its growing presence in the region is not without concern for many Arab countries, suspecting a rise in neo-Ottoman ambitions. It important to note that so far Turkey has sided with the protesters in Egypt, Libya and Syria while it has backed the Saudi led GC intervention in Bahrain. The Iranians would have certainly noted this inconsistency.

In this vein there have been rumors of closed-door talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu just concluded a visit to Saudi Arab followed by a surprise trip to Tehran. Turkey certainly appears to be domineering the affairs of Middle East and North Africa. Three important US Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Joseph Lieberman recently conveyed to the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that only Turkey can persuade the Palestinian group Hamas to participate in peace negotiations with Israel.

On the other hand, Iran appears to be strengthening its role in the affairs of Afghanistan, which must be of great concern to the Saudi’s. President Ahmadinejad of Iran, Zardari of Pakistan and Karzai of Afghanistan shared the stage with Al-Bashir of Sudan, Rahmon of Tajikistan and Talabani of Iraq last month for the “anti terror” conference in Tehran to discuss how they would react when the US and NATO withdraw from Afghanistan. In a trilateral meeting between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, the leaders of these three countries discussed a number of issues that may arise after the West exits Afghanistan. All three seemed determined to take matters into their own hands and exercise their sovereignty to boost cultural, political and economic cooperation.

As the US starts to withdraw forces from Iraq and Afghanistan and initiates negotiations on the Status of Forces Agreements with these countries, the irredentist claims presented by the Kurds, Pastuns and Baluchs are likely to escalate. These claims present an opportunity to keep the regional powers off balance.

PoliTact intends to closely monitor the Turkish response to the changing situation in the Middle East, especially as it pertains to the conflicts in Libya and Syria, as these two dynamics and Turkish involvement therein will give clues to how the new Middle East balance of power will evolve.

The post The Evolving Role of Turkey in the Middle East and the Arab and Persian Response appeared first on Politact.

President Obama on Wednesday told Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that he backs Moscow’s mediation initiatives to resolve the Libyan crisis, but on the condition that Col. Muammar Qaddafi should resign. Repeating a stance recently conveyed by American officials, Obama said in a meeting with the Russian minister in White House that he was “prepared to support negotiations that lead to a democratic transition in Libya as long as Qaddafi steps aside.”

Meanwhile, Russia and China have announced they would not participate in a Libya Contact Group conference due to be held on Friday in Istanbul, which will discuss a Turkish backed road-map for a political solution. Russia, which is against NATO campaign in Libya, has turned down the invitation of Turkey, whereas China, which has adopted a non-interference policy, hasn’t confirmed it will attend the conference.

The post US Supports Russian Solution for Libya as Russia and China Stay Away from Turkish Roadmap appeared first on Politact.

Col Muammar Qaddafi is ready to leave, France’s foreign minister stated Tuesday citing representatives of the Libyan leader, in the strongest sign so far the embattled dictator is planning to step down. Though Alain Juppe denies any direct talks with Qaddafi’s regime, he confirmed that Libyan officials were in touch with his representatives, and the message was clear. “Everyone (involved in Libya’s civil war) has contacts with everyone else. The Libyan regime sends its messengers all over, to Turkey, to New York, to Paris. We receive emissaries who are saying, ‘Gaddafi is prepared to leave. Let’s talk about it,'” Juppe said in an interview.

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Libyan opposition members on Thursday vowed to strengthen relations with China and protect its business interests in the region they control, during meeting with a senior Chinese envoy in Benghazi. Chen Xiaodong, the director general of North African and West Asian Affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry, met officials of the National Transition Council, including the NTC executive office’s deputy head Ali Essawi. Chen stressed the need for restoring peace in the country as soon as possible and announced support for the mediation proposals put forward by global bodies like the African Union. This is the fourth time the two sides have met during the past month.

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Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu officially recognized the rebel government in Libya and pledged $200mn in aid during a trip to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi on Sunday, according to media reports. “Gaddafi should leave power and a genuine political change based on the demands and aspirations of the Libyan people should be realized,” Davutoglu said during the trip. “The unity of Libya must be protected.” The recognition comes just one day after the Turkish government announced it is closing down its embassy in the Libyan capital Tripoli.

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If confirmed, France’s supply of arms to Libyan tribes is a clear violation of the United Nations Security Council resolution, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday. Reports in French media suggested that arms were distributed to Berber tribal militia in the mountains southwest of the capital Tripoli without the knowledge of other coalition partners participating in the campaign against Col. Qaddafi. Reports claimed the weapons included light armored vehicles and anti-tank rockets. Thierry Burkhard, spokesperson for the French general staff, admitted Wednesday that weapons distribution did take place but said that only light arms were airdropped.

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