How is Ukraine Conflict Impacting South Asia?

Context

One of the key theaters of the shifting balance of power is Europe, where Russia and China had been gradually encroaching. Europe has primarily been under the American Sphere of Influence since the World War II. Corona pandemic and ‘Decoupling from China’ was already impacting the global supply chains, but the Ukraine conflict has thrown in an added wrench.

The question is – how is Ukraine war and its tentacles impacting the balance of power in South Asia? The region already has a fair share of fault lines, to include Pakistan-India tensions, dealing with extremism – especially after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and growing China-India border tensions. Moreover, the geopolitics of the neighboring Middle East is likely to have a profound impact on what transpires in South Asia, especially as China establishes its role as the global peace maker.

While India is a key pivot of the Indo-Pacific strategy, it’s not a member of NATO. However, it is a part of BRICS and recently joined Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well.

Analysis

Majority of nations from South Asia abstained from the UNGA vote which took place in February 2023, and was critical of Russian invasion of Ukraine and demanded that its forces withdrew. Generally, three main characters factored in the equation.

Big Versus Small Nations

The smaller nations have usually voted in favor of Ukraine – because of the threats posed by larger powers. For example, fearing China and India, Bhutan and Nepal, have sided with the US.

Multipolarity

On the other hand, other nations of South Asia gave more weight to multipolarity and abstained from condemning Russia. They want to avoid being dependent on any one power when the global balance of power is in flux.

This can be stated for Pakistan, which is also a strategic partner of China and hosting one of the key arteries of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The country has one more challenge to contemplate, it has been an ally of the West since its creation in 1947. It played a decisive role in bringing down Soviet Union by supporting the jihadist in Afghanistan in the 80s – concluding the Cold War.

However, Pakistan is doing itself a big disservice by not criticizing Russia, especially if India were to make aggressive maneuvers towards Pakistan Administered Kashmir – as some Indian politicians have often proclaimed in relation to Gilgit-Baltistan.

On the contrary, India has refrained from condemning Russia while at the same time being a strategic partner of the US. As opposed to Pakistan, India has had long cordial ties with Russia while it remained part of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War. In the last five years, Russia has supplied India more than $13 billion worth of arms – and depends on it for 60 percent of its military equipment. As opposed to the emerging untested ties with the West, veto yielding Russia has traditionally proven to be a dependable ally of India. The country simply cannot burn these relations because of Ukraine.

In essence, India is pulling a balancing act by assisting West to prevent the rise of China, but at the same time having Russia on its side as a taming influence over China. All three players are part of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

Prominent Indian foreign affairs experts think that this is a risky posture for the country. Shashi Tharoor recently stated in an interview on Wire channel, by not opposing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the nation is setting itself up if China-India border tensions were to escalate. He went on to add that usually India stands for non-intervention and state sovereignty, which it is not doing in the case of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In short, as international actors switch alliances or attempt to balance them – there is also the assessment of who is likely to prevail – and how that’s related to maintaining the existing ties and alliances.

Meanwhile, as the global attention has shifted to Ukraine, it has provided Afghan Taliban space. The opportunistic postures of Afghan Taliban are meant to exploit the fears of stakeholders like US, China, Russia, Pakistan, India, and Iran – and by maintaining a leverage of extremism over all of them. For example, it has kept the TTP gambit over Pakistan, while at the same time offering India to keep a check on LeT and Al Qaeda in the Indian Sub Continent (AQIS), and then delicately adjusting its policy towards global extremists (AQ and ISIS-K) and other Western concerns – including women rights and inclusion of minorities in governance.

And thus, the question becomes where do Afghan Taliban, including the regional and global extremists that operate from Afghanistan, fit in the great power rivalry equation. Since the US withdrawal, both China and Russia are attempting to build trade ties with Afghanistan.

BRICS and SCO

One of the biggest casualties of the Ukraine conflict are the organizations representing the emerging powers, the SCO and BRICS, in which India has emerged as a major detractor.

US and Indian interests are convergent when it comes to Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, India has consistently taken a position against foreign intervention, in places like Libya and Syria, just as China, Russia, and Pakistan. India is also aligned with the Indo-Pacific strategy and that is what complicates its role in both the SCO and BRICS. It simply cannot be a member of both the emerging power club, and established powers, at the same time. This was evident at the recently held G-20 foreign ministers meetings in India, which were marred by differences over Ukraine – and attempted Indian balancing act while maintaining strategic autonomy.

Like in Europe, Ukraine has also become a test case for the tussles of the balance of power in South Asia. European dependency on Russian energy needs coupled with China’s economic penetration was considered a liability. As the Ukraine war unfolded, Europe is having to manage by using other energy resources – and Decoupling from China is also underway.

In the South Asia theater, before the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan – the nation had become the epicenter of the balance of power struggle. It was believed that if Afghan Taliban were to prevail, the influence of its backer Pakistan, and its strategic ally China, would multiply. However, things have not necessarily played out that way. In fact, the great power competition has left the country turned completely inward while facing an economic meltdown.

Moreover, in recent years the China-India border tensions have increased but both nations have remained engaged in trade. Just as European powers of Germany and France do not want to completely burn bridges with Russia, similarly, India does not desire to turn entirely against China, especially when it shares memberships in two major platforms, SCO and BRICS. Moreover, India conducted more than $135 billion of trade with China in 2022 while buying military equipment and cheap energy resources from Russia, and thus the prospects for decoupling from China or Russia are not looking good.

On the other hand, US-India trade amounts to more than $700 billion. India remains a US ally while doing business with Iran and Russia. It has received waivers from different US sanctions for building the Iranian Chabahar Port, buying Cheap Russian oil, and acquiring Russian S-400 air defense system. The hope is that ultimately India will recognize that being allied with the West is more beneficial.

China the Peace Maker

The recent development of Chinese acting as peacemaker between Iran and Saudi Arabia could be a game changer in the dynamics of regional balance of power. China has also presented a 12 point paper to resolve Ukraine conflict. As the power tussles in the Middle East playout, China is likely to assert more and act as a mediator in other longstanding conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the larger Middle East Peace Process, as noted by PoliTact previously.

In fact, in Chinese assessment road to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict likely runs through the Iran-Saudi rapprochement. Just like Iran and Saudi Arabia, China also enjoys cordial ties with Israel. This approach stands in contrast to the Outside-In approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Chinese peacemaker role could undercut US influence in the Middle East, which can restrict space for India as well. As China and Russia reach out to manifest their influence, they seem to be having more success in countries that do not have democratic forms of government. Meanwhile, democracy and democratic norms are faltering in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.

Related Articles:

• What Does The China, Iran Economic and Security Deal Mean?
• In November 16, 2018, PoliTact collaborated with the Middle East Institute’s Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies Center to examine the political, security, and economic interconnections between South Asia and the Gulf States, and one of the subsets, Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

The post Great Power Rivalry In South Asia And Ukraine appeared first on Politact.

Context

APEC and ASEAN are the two main bodies facilitating cooperation between nations of the Asia Pacific region. This article seeks to stipulate the main differences in the two organizations and also to analyze the cause of rising tensions over the future of APEC and how major stakeholders are seeking to influence its evolution. Pakistan’s outlook in the region will be looked at in the context of PoliTact’s previous article on India’s Looks East Policy.

Analysis

APEC

APEC is the Asia Pacific Economic Community, established in 1989 to help facilitate the growth and community of ‘member economies’. There are 21 member economies (countries) today, with the original 12 countries consisting of the US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand, the Philippines and the Republic of Korea. Since then, Chile, Peru, Mexico, China, Russia, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Papua New Guinea and Chinese Tai Pei have joined.

APEC’s basic goals are to work towards tariff reduction and reduction of other trade barriers between member economies in order to promote efficiency in domestic markets, and to increase exports of member economies. Less enthusiastically, APEC is also concerned with the free movement of people between member economies-however this is a bone of contention within the organization, given that it has such wealth disparities present between member economies.

Member economies of APEC account for over 50% of world GDP, and over 40% of the world’s population.

ASEAN

ASEAN is the Association of South East Asian Nations, created in 1967 with a much narrower charter than APEC, and only five founding members: Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines. Today there are 10 members of ASEAN, with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar joining at various stages between 1984 and 1999.

ASEAN is much more focused on regional stability and community with initiatives involving education, cultural exchanges, research and technological advancement. Economic interests are of course a part of ASEAN; however they are far less articulated than in APEC.

In 1997 ASEAN + 3 was formed, including the regional powerhouses of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea into the ASEAN fold. The +3 members are not considered full ASEAN members, but partake in similar activities as between the ASEAN members themselves. On top of the ASEAN+3 members, ASEAN as a regional body has dealings with other non-member states in the Asia Pacific region, these include the US, Russia, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and Pakistan. Inter-organizational relationships are also present between ASEAN and the EU and UNDP.

ASEAN and APEC both figure prominently in the region, however APEC is marked for being the organization which can, if any can, bring an Asia Pacific community into being. While comparisons with the EU are inevitable, they can never be more than passing comparisons because of the vastly different historical, cultural and economic make-ups of the two organizations. APEC is unique in that it seeks to make community where little common history and culture exists-the nations of Chile and Japan will never share the same kind of bond that countries of the EU share, simply because they have not be forged in a common historical furnace. APEC has found commonality in its member countries via economics.

The future of APEC is widely contended, even between member economies. For China, the current, non-binding and voluntary nature of the organization is perfectly suitable for its needs, and China has expressed a desire that the ‘APEC Approach’ continue in its current course. The benefits China has derived from being a member of APEC are manifold, and include the development of over 14 bilateral FTAs since becoming a member. Japan on the other hand, partly because of the Chinese economic domination in the region is pushing for a more institutionalized and enforceable set of governing principles for the organization. Prime Minister Hatoyama of Japan has expressly stated the APEC as an institutionalized regional economic body should be put ‘firmly into place’-an agenda that he will be pushing as the APEC host in 2010.

The US shares this view with Japan to a certain extent-APEC has the distinction of being the only regional economic organization of significant size the US is a member of-with 60% of the US’s export heading to APEC member economies, the US wants, nay needs APEC to become the primary regional body for the Asia Pacific, since it is excluded from the majority of other regional organizations. The US is in direct opposition to China, in that the so called ‘noodle bowl of agreements’ that has served China so well, is seen as an obstacle for US interests in the region. The US doesn’t necessarily share the vision of an all-encompassing community as hinted at by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, or even Japan’s more integrated vision-the US desperately wants APEC to become a Free Trade Area, so that the more than 150 bilateral FTAs signed between APEC members and other regional nations (to the exclusion of the US) are subsumed under the overarching APEC Free Trade Area.

Pakistan is looking at being on the fringe of an increasingly integrated Asia Pacific-as discussed in a previous analysis of India’s Look East Policy, Pakistan is somewhat isolated from the member states of this region due to India’s industrious alliance building. That being said, China remains a friend to Pakistan, and the US is bound up in Pakistan with the ‘War on Terror’. Pakistan is in the duplicitous position of being comparatively smaller importance economically, but being of central importance to regional security and even global security matters.

India has been denied membership to APEC, despite support for inclusion by the US, Japan and Australia-a primary reason being that it does not border the Pacific-a founding logic of the organization. Its hopes are better places within ASEAN, but both Indian scenarios paint a dim picture for Pakistan with the future of either organization. China’s vision of APEC is the one that will be most in Pakistan’s favor, as any solidifying of regional community will most likely be to the exclusion and detriment of Pakistani interests in the region.

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Pakistan and Turkmenistan on Monday agreed to expedite their energy projects. President Asif Ali Zardari met with his counterpart Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov and announced that the two countries would make efforts to speedup the $7.6 billion four-country pipeline project.

The pipeline which was shelved last December in Ashgabat, was expected to run through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The two leaders announced that direct air links would be started between Pakistan and Turkmenistan to boost economic cooperation.

The TAPI pipeline would also be set up to provide energy security. Major issues including drug and weapons trafficking, illegal immigration, regional and international stability were also discussed. President Zardari praised the Joint Inter-governmental Turkmen Pakistan Commission for its role in strengthening the relations between the countries.

The post Pakistan, Turkmenistan Agree To Speedup Energy Projects appeared first on Politact.

Detained Indian anti-corruption campaigner Anna Hazare has accepted a police offer that will allow him to go ahead with hunger strike for 15 days in a park, his aide said. In a note posted on the social website Twitter, Kiran Bedi announced that Hazare would start his fast on Thursday. He had formerly pledged to remain in prison in Delhi’s Tihar jail unless he was allowed to recommence the protest, which led to his detention on Tuesday. His arrest sparked mass protests across India.

The post Anna Hazare Agrees To Release Offer appeared first on Politact.

US Senator John McCain on Tuesday held a meeting “on various important issues” with Jammu and Kashmir Governor N.N. Vohra in Srinagar. A statement issued from the Indian government said that the chief of Indian army’s northern division, of which the Muslim-majority Kashmir is a vital part, and the army chief of Kashmir also attended the discussion. McCain later held a separate meeting with Chief Minister of Kashmir Omar Abdullah. Details of these consultations weren’t disclosed to the media.

The meetings could be meant to pressure Pakistan and extract more cooperation from the country in the war against terror. These contacts have taken place in the backdrop of the arrest of prominent Kashmir activist Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai in Washington DC. Dr. Fai was arrested on charges that he was operating under the instructions of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan.

The post John McCain Holds Meetings With Officials Of Indian-Administered Kashmir appeared first on Politact.

Anna Hazare, an Indian anti-corruption activist, declined to leave Delhi’s Tihar prison on Wednesday. Hazare, who has been calling for a tougher lokpal bill to curb corruption, was detained and imprisoned on Tuesday, but freed 12 hours later by authorities in a surprise move. His decision to not leave the jail could prove to be problematic for the government, which is believed to have been floundering. The Congress leaders have struggled to defend their previous hard-line stance towards a Gandhanian who is seen as a symbol of India’s campaign against corruption.

The post Indian Anti-Corruption Activist Declines To Leave Prison appeared first on Politact.

Jamaat-ud-Dawah leader Hafiz Saeed could face fresh imprisonment after UK diplomats met top Pakistani officials in the last of week of July. The attempt was to persuade Pakistan to take action against the outfit, a front for the outlawed Lashkar-i-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistani newspaper reported on Tuesday.

The report said the move was a result of India’s “covert diplomatic campaign” to push Pakistan to crackdown on Jamaat-ud-Dawah, believed to have been behind the 2008 Mumbai massacre.
 

The post British Diplomats Urge Pakistan To Take Action Against Hafiz Saeed appeared first on Politact.

The new American strategy for Central and South Asia sees Pakistan as an important ally in a new Silk Road which connects these two regions, according to the State Department. Talking to reporters at the fourth core group summit this week in Islamabad, the department’s spokesperson Mark Toner said that the US considers Pakistan strategically important but urged the country to gel with the region’s economy. Toner also said that US special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Mark Grossman discussed “regional economic development along the vision of the new Silk Road that Secretary Clinton laid out in Chennai” when he met with the core group. During last month’s trip to Chennai, Hillary Clinton had urged India to team up with other regional countries in reviving the Silk Route.

The post US Seeks Pakistan’s Assistance In Reviving Silk Road appeared first on Politact.

According to media reports, Pakistan’s immediate response to allegations by Beijing that Islamic radicals behind violence in Xinjiang were trained on its territory shows the significance of its relations with China. Pakistan quickly sent ISI chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha to Beijing after militants carried out a weekend assault that killed 11 people in western China. However, some analysts claim depending too much on China could be counterproductive for Islamabad.

According to Indian analysts, US rarely gets this kind of response when it pushes Pakistan on militant groups operating on its border. These experts believe Islamabad’s attempts to prefer China too much over the US will backfire ultimately. This is because Pakistan’s usefulness for Beijing is in South Asia only, where it is competing with India. However, China also has global ambitions that it is unlikely to sacrifice for a country that has proven a headache to the US.

The post Indian Experts: Pakistan Increasing Reliance On China Over US Counterproductive appeared first on Politact.

Iran is now getting its payments for oil exports to India via a third party bank to foil US-led efforts to segregate the Islamic republic, according to industry sources. India owes Iran around $5bn for oil supplied by Tehran and both nations were struggling to find methods to make the transactions after Reserved Bank of India blocked a clearing mechanism amid US pressure. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Syed Amir Mansour Borghei confirmed on Monday that the payment dispute over crude supplies with New Delhi has been resolved.

The post Iran Finds a Way to Get Around US Sanctions appeared first on Politact.