Dr Claude Rakisits

Context

India has formally invited Australia to join the large-scale naval exercises to be conducted in the Bay of Bengal (3-6 November) and the Arabian Sea (17-20 November), involving in addition to the navies of India and Australia naval assets of the US and Japan.

This is a very significant development—if not militarily, certainly symbolically—for the future of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. This will be the first time that the navies of the four countries will be participating together in naval exercises.

Australia, India, Japan and the US are members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad—a grouping of four Indo-Pacific democracies founded in 2007 whose main mission is to ensure a Free and Open Indo-Pacific primarily through the maintenance of the rules-based international order.

The Timing of India’s Invitation to Australia

India’s decision to invite Australia to join Exercise Malabar 2020 comes in the wake of three important geopolitical developments.

First, an in-person meeting of the four foreign ministers of the Quad in Tokyo earlier this month—a significant symbolic event given the tight Covid-19 travel restrictions. At this meeting the ministers reinforced their countries’ determination to cooperate in a range of areas, including critically but not solely, in the maritime security domain. Except for US Secretary of State Pompeo, no one mentioned China specifically. But the 800-pound gorilla was very much at the meeting.

Second, India and Australia agreed on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on 4 June 2020, an agreement which progresses cooperation in a significant number of fields, including in the military and security spheres.

Third, in April-May this year India and China were involved in deadly clashes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. Whilst tension has diminished since then, with the holding of several meetings of the corps commanders on both sides and a meeting of the Foreign Ministers last month, this on-going issue with Beijing has been a wake-up call for the Indian defense forces and Prime Minister Narendra Modi—his informal approach to dealing with Chinese President Xi now in tatters.

Can China Hurt Australia For Participating in Exercise Malabar 2020?

Canberra has very much welcomed India’s invitation to the Malabar exercise. Australia’s defense minister, Senator Linda Reynolds, stated “High-end military exercises like Malabar are key to enhancing Australia’s maritime capabilities, building interoperability with our close partners, and demonstrating our collective resolve to support an open and prosperous Indo-Pacific”.

Australia last participated in Exercise Malabar in 2007. The then Australian prime minister, mandarin-speaking Kevin Rudd, decided to pull out of the following year’s exercise to avoid offending China. However, this did not prevent a significant deterioration in the bilateral relations down the road.

Bilateral relations were already at an all-time low. In response to Australia’s call for an independent investigation into the origin of the Coronavirus and China’s handling of it, China slapped huge tariffs on Australian barley in May. New tariffs have also been imposed on Australian beef. And wine exports could be next.

Last month China expelled the last two Australian journalists from the country. It’s been almost 50 years since there hasn’t been Australian media in China. Given that China is Australia’s largest export market, taking 30 per cent of all exports, Beijing could start to really hurt Australia’s economy if it wished to do so.

The Quad is Getting Ready to Resist China

More broadly, China will not be too worried about the military aspects of the Malabar exercise, however, it will note the significant diplomatic push-back it represents to its aggressive military activities in the region, notably its effective unilateral changing of the LAC in Ladakh, its 9-dash claim over most of the South China Sea and the accompanying massive build-up of military-purposed artificial islands, and its ongoing low-level military harassment of Taiwan.

Put differently, while until relatively recently China was willing to play by the rules of the Western-led international order, this has changed progressively since President Xi took over as the head of the Communist Party of China in 2012. Accordingly, the battle lines are starting to get clearer and the Quad is firming up its resolve to stand up to China.

While not being an alliance per se, the Quad could nevertheless become the key security vehicle for the Indo-Pacific. However, the strengthening of the Quad will really depend on the members’ resolve to stand united in the face of the inevitable Chinese response—military, diplomatic and economic—to what Beijing will perceive as a ganging up on the Middle Kingdom.

Biden Presidency Might Act Tough on China—Good News for the Quad

Needless to say, future unacceptable Chinese military activity will not attract equal interest or response from the different Quad members. And Beijing knows this only too well and will accordingly exploit these differences for all its worth.

So what is the future of the Quad? As noted above, much will really depend on the cohesiveness of the grouping and how it responds to future Chinese behavior. A likely Biden administration in Washington would probably be tough on China. This would be good news for the Quad. The display of American political will to fly the flag would reassure the other members of the Quad and make it more worthwhile for others, such as Canada, France, Indonesia, New Zealand and the UK to name some obvious credible candidates, to join the grouping. As Joe Stalin once said, “Quantity has a quality all its own”, a statement President Xi would surely relate to.

This piece originally appeared in The Quint.

The post Evolving QUAD And Australian Participation In The Malabar Exercise 2020 appeared first on Politact.

He also said the move to Seychelles will have deep implications, not just for India but for the whole world. It will also allow China to launch military interventions in Africa to secure its investments.

On the other hand, Seychelles government has appreciated China’s efforts for ensuring safety in the sea and its anti-piracy patrols. China is planning to invest in other ports of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Burma in a policy described as string of pearls.

The post China May Establish A Base In The Gulf Of Eden appeared first on Politact.

Context
The South Asian chess game is unfolding in quite an intriguing way. Despite the rhetoric on both sides, the interdependence of Pakistan and India is only increasing. India needs Pakistan for its Look West policy to work, while the continuing quagmire in Afghanistan makes it is imperative for Pakistan to focus towards the East, and to benefit from the economic dynamism there.

This is not all; China and US both have tremendous stakes in the Asia Pacific and how the South Asian equation plays out. As an emerging power, China is pushing zealously to secure its influence in the immediate neighboring regions. On the other hand, US being an established player, is unlikely to relent easily. The recent high-level traffic from US and China to the region needs to be examined with in this context. In addition to other variables, the temperature of US-China ties will have no less of an impact on the Pakistan-India ties, and by this connection, even Afghanistan.

Will Pakistan and India go all the way in the interests of their respective strategic partners, China and the US, will be interesting to watch. Moreover, to what extents are these interests perceived as win-win or zero-sum, will pretty much define the next stage of these interlinked ties.

Analysis

The High Level Traffic

US Vice President Joe Biden’s completed a four-day visit to India in late July. The items discussed included trade, environment, and security. Biden’s visit to India took place soon after John Kerry visited the country in June. Presently Kerry is on a much-delayed two-day visit to Pakistan.

There is continuity of high-level exchanges between India and the US. A number of the think tanks in Washington have taken it as their mission to move the strategic partnership between the two nations along. The most US and Pakistan could pull together was the meagerly Dubai trade conference held in June, mostly attended by US embassy officials and businessmen from Pakistan, including Pakistani businessmen of American origin. The traders that did attend complained why the conference was not organized in Pakistan or the US and why the lack of a broad business interest from the US. The answer to this question, pretty much lays it all.

The recent high level American visits to India are matched by similar leadership contacts between China and Pakistan. The new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif completed a five-day official visit to China in early July. During the trip, deals worth billions of dollars were reportedly signed between the two, including the development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the associated Kashgar-Gwadar project. The project includes developing of rail and road links between Gwadar port and Kashgar. Pakistan had previously handed over the management of the strategic Gwadar port to China.

The Chinese Message

Earlier, in late May, the new Chinese premier visited the region, and before coming to Pakistan he first went to India. The trip took place soon after the confrontation between the two militaries in the Ladakh region. By visiting India first, and while Karzai was also there demanding Indian military help, China conveyed to all three nations it gives more importance to economic and trade relations as oppose to primarily security concerns. While Pakistan and China have a strategic partnership, China has also been deepening its economic and trade ties with both India and Afghanistan.

The implied message was likely meant to positively influence Pakistan’s ties with India and Afghanistan. However, the Chinese point is likely to be only valid as long as India does not play a countering role being part of the American pivot to the Pacific. If India does take on that role, the fate the fate of BRICS, and its full membership to SCO, will both be jeopardized.

The American Posture

On the other hand, US is increasingly looking at India to get involved in Afghanistan’s security affairs, and to maintain this prospect as a leverage against Pakistan’s alleged inaction. The country is, however, reluctant to take on this task wholeheartedly for obvious reasons. Acting as a strategic partner to distant powers and at the cost of adverse ties with immediate neighbors, is never a wise strategy.

Without improvement in India Pakistan ties, Indian economic or military role in Afghanistan, will continue to be looked upon with much suspicion in Pakistan. The dilemma for India remains; in absence of improved ties with Pakistan, it cannot allow Pakistan to be the beneficiary of what transpires in Afghanistan, and after having spent about $2 billion dollars in economic assistance.

Moreover, included in the Indian consideration is the impact of Afghan reconciliation on the rest of the jihadist panorama in Pakistan. After dilly-dallying for a while, the emerging American policy appears to have delinked the two for the time being. How India digests this American decision would probably decide if Indian political help towards Afghanistan would be forthcoming. Meanwhile, India may link its assistance in Afghanistan with the role US wants it to play in the Pacific.

Conclusion

In essence, how the US-China equation evolves will have a significant impact on Pakistan-India ties, and by that link, Afghanistan as well. In Afghanistan, US has allowed Chinese to invest, and has simultaneously been pushing for improvement in the Pakistan-India ties. However, when it comes to the Pacific, intentions are not as transparent. And, now China appears to be reciprocating in kind by getting more economically involved in Latin America.

As Singapore’s legendary leader Lee Kuan Yew puts it, “Peace and security in the Asia Pacific will turn on whether China emerges as xenophobic, chauvinistic force, bitter and hostile to the West because it tried to slow down or abort its development, or educated and involved in the ways of the world, more cosmopolitan, more internationalized and outward looking.”

As far as South Asia is concerned, the worse part is that both Pakistan and India have allowed themselves to be played and taken for a ride. The cost of this strategy has been much steeper for Pakistan than India, especially considering its security and economic perils. The two nations have much more at stake in creating win-win scenarios in the region, and to not allow their future to be relegated to the interests of other powers.

On the other hand, if US and China apply a concerted approach towards the Indo-Pak, the region can go through a transformation, where all developments are not perceived in the zero-sum context. This obviously will also make the American exit from Afghanistan much smoother. However, if we add the dynamics of Middle East and Africa to the mix, a more complex picture emerges.

The post China, US And The Balancing Act In South Asia appeared first on Politact.

Context

The presidents of China and US met informally over the June 7th weekend at a resort in southern California. The agenda for the talks included North Korea, de-escalating tensions with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, climate change, and managing the evolving Cyber security related risks between the two nations. However, these are hardly the only high priority issues.

The meeting of the two heads of states has occurred at a peculiar time when the US-Russia ties are tensing up further, especially over the affairs of Syria. Then, there is the stalemate of Afghan reconciliation and the connected US and NATO withdrawal.

At this juncture, the importance of China to US has increased even more. US would not want to alienate two heavyweights of the UN Security Council at the same time, and thus create a vibe that resonates of a civilizational divide. Moreover, recent events suggest confrontation may be creeping in on the fringes of the otherwise cooperative US-China ties. Trade and Cyber wars are the more obvious new fronts.

While China-US ties are moving towards cooperation in the Middle East and Africa, in the Asia Pacific and Americas matters appear to be tilting more towards rivalry, while affairs hang in the balance when it comes to South and Central Asia. And, the Summit was to take a stock of where the two powers are heading.

Analysis

Pivot to Latin America

The path of the Xi’s trip to the US passed through Latin America. His visit included Cost Rica and Mexico. Just before Xi’s trip, Obama and Biden made their own trips to almost the same states. Most of the US and Chinese activities in the Latin America have to do with trade and economics, but the experts agree that something may be fundamentally changing in the Americas.

This alteration may have to do with and connected to the American pivot to the Asia Pacific. Although American scholars are very reluctantly pointing to this, nonetheless, the suspicion is there. The Chinese may be sneaking into the American home sphere of influence using the garb of trade. Obviously, this is not the first time this has happened in history. Does this mean US would have to take a fresh look at the Monroe Doctrine and Roosevelt Corollary, is yet to be seen.

China, Russia And Middle East

When it comes to the Middle East, it’s not clear if the US has convinced China to get more involved, or if the country is doing this on its own. China recently presented its own four-point proposal for resolving the infamous Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though immediately shrugged off by Russia. As part of the Chinese Middle East peace initiative, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both visited China in May. It should be noted that on the Syrian conflict, China and Russia have pretty much upheld the same position, non-intervention and respect for state sovereignty.

However, media reports reflect a push by the US to get China more involved in the core issues of the Arab world. For this purpose, the two states may include the Middle East peace in the upcoming US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. The talks are likely to divulge into the role of Russia in Syria. When it comes to the Middle East, Chinese encroachment appears to be welcomed and influenced by the US, but resented by Russia.

China And Mali

On the other hand, China recently revealed its recent decision to send 500 troops to Mali. These soldiers will be under the UN security mission and in support of France. Some of these troops are meant for combat mission, which is a first for China. The country has largely stayed away from such operations in the past, as it does not want to be seen as intervening in other countries for efforts linked to the wider war on terror. However, China is clearly going beyond that hesitation now. The country wants to be perceived as a responsible global player and a stabilizing force in Africa.

China And Afghanistan

US also does not appear concerned regarding Chinese role in the AfPak region. China and India have invested heavily in Afghanistan and thus require a stable security situation there, in which Pakistan can help greatly. Using its sway over its strategic partner, China can possibly make things a lot easier for NATO withdrawal.

Pakistan usually delicately balances its ties between both US and China. However, the nation may have settled its bets in favor of China. The country recently handed over the administration of its strategic Gawadar Port to a Chinese firm. Moreover, Pakistan has made a decision to adopt the Chinese Beidou navigation system for its critical systems, expected to be fully functional globally by 2020.

Conclusion

As in the Americas, Chinese and American officials are following each other in and out of South Asia. John Kerry will be visiting Pakistan and India towards the end of June. His visit will be following that of the Chinese Premier, who visited Pakistan even before the new government was installed.

China, Russia and US, share the threat from Islamic extremists. The difference is over how far to go towards eradicating the menace, and if the solution is a political or a military one. At the same time, China and Russia are concerned that states aligned with them are dissipating while fighting the war.

The approach China adopts in South Asia is derived from the totality of its ties with the US. This is not much different from how the US positions itself against China. While Russia may be happy to see China sneaking in to America’s backyard, it does not appear pleased about its role in the Middle East. At the same time, China and Russia share worries over American presence in the Pacific. While the US has tried to appease Russia by backing off slightly from the European missile defense system, their views are diverging over the situation of Middle East.

The unfolding events of Syria have further demonstrated the fight there may be more related to the global tussles and the reestablishment of spheres of influence. And, in this sense we are seeing history repeating itself.

The post US-China Summit: Is The Pivot To Pacific Boomeranging? appeared first on Politact.

Furthering its outreach in the Pacific, Pakistan’s preferential free trade agreement with Indonesia is finally making progress. Comments made earlier this month by Indonesia’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Burhan Muhammad, indicated the agreement would help open market access for Pakistan to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Nations).

Bilateral trade between the two countries increased from $1 billion in 2008 to $1.65 billion in 2012, and is expected to reach a target of $2 billion. Pakistan’s exports presently include cotton and cereal. With the preferential agreement, exports of fruits, textiles, carpets, fabrics, leather goods, chemicals, and surgical equipment are likely to increase.

On the other hand, in addition to exporting palm oil, Indonesia is interested in making investments in the infrastructure sector, including providing expertise in exploiting Pakistan’s coal reserves. Moreover, Indonesia is also keen in promoting military ties with Pakistan.

The post Pakistan – Indonesia Free Trade Agreement Moving Forward appeared first on Politact.

Context

After the initial hype, Pakistan-India ties appear to be settling down for the usual. To solve the Afghan quagmire, it was contended that Pakistan would have to shift its defense and security fixation with India. It is commonly believed that its Pakistan’s threat perception from India that causes it to hedge its bets in Afghanistan; by maintaining relations with the Taliban and other Kashmir related Jihadi organizations.

Under this conception, it was assumed that if Pakistan-India ties were to improve, it would translate into enormous economic benefit for the region. Moreover, economic interdependence will make it easy to deal with longstanding conflicts, security issues, including matters of water rights. The budding regional trade will cause Pakistan to desist from the unproductive behavior. Furthermore, the improving ties will mean Pakistan could shift more troops from the eastern border to conduct military operations on its western front with Afghanistan.

This was part and parcel of what came to be known as the ‘regional solution’ for Afghanistan. The concept is a fine theoretical construct. The challenge being, it is not Pakistan, as one would have thought, but India that is dragging its feet. The Indian delay will raise questions about its sincerity.

Analysis

Regional Economic Cooperation

Caught in a bind, Pakistan, and its military bought into the argument. Due to the war on terror, corruption and energy shortages, the nation’s economy lies in ruin. The potential of financial benefit derived from regional trade was too much to resist. Pakistan moved quickly on trade and tariff agreement with Afghanistan, allowing its goods to be transported to India. Pakistan also finally became amenable towards granting India the MFN status. India and Pakistan are now preparing to allow relaxation of visa regimes permitting easy travel for traders. The people to people contacts and the sports ties between the two countries have also considerably improved.

However, while Pakistan is moving swiftly and letting go of many preconditions, India has dragged its feet and has tied progress with security-related clauses. In the post-Mumbai incident environment, this meant Pakistan would have to speed up the investigations for the perpetrators (LeT) of the attack. Moreover, India demanded Pakistan dismantle the jihadi network meant to destabilize it.

The delay will be exploited by the hardliners in Pakistan. It will trigger doubts about the construct that considers Pakistan as the regional villain, and gives the benefit of the doubt to India and Afghanistan. There always was another side of the story that questions the character of India and Afghanistan and towards forming the dreaded pincer style alliance. The role of India in destabilizing Balochistan, and Afghanistan in supporting Mullah Fazlullah has increasingly come to limelight.

Speaking in Chitral on December 4, Pakistan’s interior minister threatened to conduct covert operations against Mullah Fazlullah and Maulvi Faqir in Afghanistan if their activities against Pakistan did not cease. Ironically, the same day, junior home affairs minister Mullappally Ramachandran told Indian parliament, “The terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan or Kashmir remains intact and infiltration attempts from across the border still continue to pose a challenge to the security forces.”

The lack of progress is raising eyebrows with even the staunchest supporters of peace with India in Pakistan. The editor in chief of Friday Times, Najam Sethi wrote in The News on December 7,

“Pakistan has taken unprecedented steps to demonstrate a willingness to change the enemy-state paradigm. It is also grappling with terrorism-related issues. When will the Indian establishment stop clutching at Kargil and Mumbai to dampen the popular groundswell for peace in both countries? When will the Indian media become part of the solution rather than remain part of the problem?”

Indian Challenge

Some analysts have blamed the Indian hardliners and its election cycle for the hangover. There is, however, more to it. Indian foreign policy has other tangents that are complicating its posture in South Asia. Its strategic partnership with the US and Israel is creating challenges especially in its ties with China, Pakistan, and Iran.

Under pressure from the US, it earlier dropped out of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. Then, following the international sanctions on Iran, it minimized its energy imports from the country. Meanwhile, India expanded its defense relations with Afghanistan, US, Australia and Japan and has increased its outreach to Central Asia and Gulf states. At the same time, it has remained a steadfast member of BRICS. Moreover, its and an aspirant, like Pakistan, for a full membership in Russian and Chinese dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

As in South Asia, India’s role in the pacific is also gradually looking like a pivot for the US. In this regard, two significant developments took place in the first week of December that are a cause of serious concern for China. First, US Senate approved an amendment, though not yet signed by President Obama, bringing Diaoyu Islands under the purview of US-Japan security pact. The step was interpreted by China as a move to counter its claims and stir up disputes between China and Japan. The action was accompanied by the decision of Indian Navy to start operating in the South China Sea. Admiral Joshi declared on December 3 that Indian Navy would act to protect the commercial interest of state-owned ONGC Videsh.

Conclusion

In short, the state of Pakistan-India ties is connected to a broader dimension than simply the interplay of economic and security affairs of the region. The geopolitical reality dictates both nations need each other to reach their full potential. Pakistan can be a bridge for India to utilize the energy resources of Central Asia. On the other hand, India can be a conduit for Pakistan’s Look East policy. This prospect takes on an added emphasis with the Middle East engulfed in revolts, and Europe and North America in recession. For this to work, however, both would have to chart an independent path as oppose to acting as pivots for global powers. As Kuldip Nayar put it during a 2010 Kashmir Conference held in Washington, if the two countries can manage their differences the 21st century could very well turn out to be a South Asian one.

The post Pakistan-India Ties: Enthusiasm Versus Reality appeared first on Politact.

Context

Since the Non Aligned Movement Summit in Tehran, analysts have been weighing its significance. One can understand why there is confusion; in times of transition, it is hard to make sense of events as they occur. Evaluating developments require a sense of history that is usually lacking these days.

A number of unprecedented events unfolded this week. For example, US declared Haqqani network a terrorist organization as Pakistan and India agreed to ease their visa regimes and China and India decided to resume joint military exercises. Additionally, President Putin will visit Pakistan in October and General Kayani’s is heading to Russia. There are also media reports suggesting Chinese are to take over Gwadar Port.

To comprehend these developments one needs to look closely at what is emerging between the ties of global powers such as China, US, and Russia. As the Cold War ended, NAM glided into obscurity, there was no one left to align against. However, now that Russia and China are increasingly challenging the US, and vice versa, NAM, and similar platforms will obviously become more relevant once more.

Analysis

US-Russia Ties

In a recent interview with Russia Today, President Putin indicated that all is not well when it comes to US-Russia ties. These ties are stressed primarily over Syria and NATO’s missile defense system.

“Today some want to use militants from Al Qaeda or some other organizations with equally radical views to accomplish their goals in Syria,” Putin stated in the interview. “This policy is very short-sighted and is fraught with dire consequences.”

He added, “That was the case during the war in Afghanistan.” “At that time, our present partners supported a rebel movement there and basically gave rise to Al Qaeda, which later backfired on the United States itself.”

In this context, the war on terror appears more and more like a transitory phase. As the global power tussle intensify, the militias, extremists, and states are likely to be absorbed as proxies and partners into one or the other fold once more. This phenomenon is increasingly on display in the case of Syria.

Moreover, Russia Defense Ministry threatened counter measures last week if the US does not relent in implementing a missile shield over Europe. The Commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces stated that the country will develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile by 2018.

US-China Ties

In the case of US-China ties, things do not look much upbeat either. During Hillary Clinton’s visit to China last week, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao showcased his concerns in a press conference:

“Generally speaking, our relationship has been moving forward, but recently I am more or less worried.” He went on to add, “I feel that our two countries should maintain political mutual respect and strategic mutual trust. The United States should respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” His comments sounded more like those that Pakistan makes after drone strikes.

China and US are increasingly at odds over the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
The country has warned US against meddling in the territorial disputes while the US has called for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei stated, “Countries outside this region should respect the choice of countries directly concerned with this issue and should earnestly honor their commitment to not taking sides in this dispute.”

China claims indisputable sovereignty over the islands of South China Sea while Philippines, Vietnam, and other nations assert the same. Recently the US accused China of escalating tensions as Beijing set up a remote garrison in the South China Sea.

Additionally, China has warned Japan that its decision to purchase Dial Islands will have serious implications as it considers the action illegal. Chinese President Ju Jintao has stressed on Japan to, “be fully aware of the seriousness of the situation and not make the wrong decision.”

Russia-China Ties

On the other hand, some analysts have played up the differences between Russia and China, calling it an unnatural alliance. Moreover, this perspective blames Russians for not reciprocating the Chinese in the Asia Pacific in the same manner they are supporting the Russians in the case of Iran and Syria. However, this notion was some what dispelled when the Chinese President Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin met on the sidelines of 20th informal economic leaders’ meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

Both countries reached consensus on key political, economic, security goals and agreed to push the China-Russia strategic partnership forward. These were previously decided upon at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in June. In 2011, the volume of trade between the two countries was worth $83 billion, and Putin expected it to increase to $100 billion by 2015.

Pakistan’s Ties With US, Russia, China And India

While the US relations with China and Russia are not going well, Russian and Pakistan is moving closer while Chinese-India ties are heading towards normalization. This is occurring as concerns have grown in the US that India is not fully embracing what its’ strategic security relations with the US entail.

As Pakistan and India agreed to the easing of their visa procedures, China’s Defense Minster Gen Liang Guanglie’s was in India last week and consented to resume joint military exercises that had been suspended two years ago. The defense ministers of the two countries decided that closer military ties would facilitate trust and friendship between the two. Despite tensions, trade between India and China has climbed from $5 billion in 2002 to nearly $75 billion last year. On the other hand, bilateral trade between India and Pakistan was only $300 million in 2004 and has increased to $2.7 billion in 2011. At a joint press briefing held after the signing of the visa agreement, Pakistan’s foreign minister stated, “We will not be held hostage to history.”

Irrespective of what is happening to US-Pakistan ties, the views of Pakistan and India on key international issues are moving closer to those of Russia and China. In addition to the focus on developing regional trade and energy corridors, the buzzwords emanating from China, Russia, Pakistan, and India are respected for sovereignty and national integrity of states and resistance to external intervention in regional disputes.

Hillary Clinton herself candidly pointed out to this stark reality. She commented on her trip to China the two nations (China and US) are attempting to do something that has not been done before in history “which is to write a new answer to the question of what happens when an established power and a rising power meet.”

The comment pretty much sums up the present hustle bustle in international relations. It’s yet to be seen if history will be made or repeated.

The post Emerging Tensions In Relations of Global Powers; Implications For Pakistan, India appeared first on Politact.

A top Pentagon official, Ash Carter, has been assigned to sort out differences on high-tech exports and will visit India later this month. His trip also includes visits to Hawaii, Guam, Japan, Thailand and South Korea. Earlier, Leon Panetta had commented that Carter would lead the effort to further streamline the bureaucratic processes to “make defense trade more simple, more responsive and more effective,” by relaxing the trade barriers.

Reportedly, the purpose of Carter’s trip is to engage key US allies in detailed discussions over US strategy in the Asia-Pacific.

“The purpose of the visit is to engage key allies and partners in detailed discussions on what the US military’s approach to the Asia-Pacific will mean in practice,” Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said.

Carter will explore how the US Department of Defense and militaries of the region “can work more closely together to ensure security and prosperity in the 21st century,” he added.

These developments have taken place as concerns were raised recently in the US and India that the strategic ties between the two countries have not lived up to expectations.

The post Pentagon Discussing Defense Cooperation, Dual Use Technology With India appeared first on Politact.

Myanmar’s President Thein Sein stated that the violence could harm the process of democratic reforms. Some 300 Rohingya, mainly women and children, have attempted fleeing to Bangladesh using boats. However, the Border Guards of Bangladesh prevented them from doing so.

Rohingya Muslims have been denied recognition as one of Myanmar’s ethnic minority and are considered foreigners and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.
According to the UN estimates, there are 800,000 Rohingya Muslims living in Rakhine state. On the other hand, Bangladeshi official’s claims there are about 300,000 Rohingya in their country.

Myanmar is quickly emerging as another host spot where the shifts in the balance of power between the West, China and India are playing out.

The post Clashes Between Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims And Rakhine Buddhists Continue appeared first on Politact.

The dialogue covers five key areas:

1. Strategic, defense, homeland security, counter-terrorism and intelligence
2. Economic, energy, climate
3. Science and technology, innovation and health
4. Higher education and empowerment
5. Regional strategies and linkages

According to officials, the two countries are likely to announce the first eight projects the two countries will finance together, as part of the Obama-Singh 21st Century Knowledge Initiative. Moreover, US will pressure India to further curtail its oil imports from Iran.

There are growing concerns that India-US partnership has not lived up to its expectations and potential. Although India wants US arms and technology, the nation does not want to be used against China. There is a growing sentiment that India does not seek an alliance with the US as it has with Japan and other Asian powers.
On the other hand, US has refuted the relationship with India has been oversold, while emphasizing its importance in regional dynamics of East Asia and Afghanistan.

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