Context

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its head of state summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on September 17. The conference took place in the backdrop of the collapse of Ashraf Ghani government in Afghanistan as Taliban took over. This was accompanied by the complete withdrawal of US and coalition troops – that has raised alarmed bells across the region and beyond.

The future of the US presence in the South and Central Asia, and increasingly Middle East region, have remained the focus of SCO. As early as June 2010, the then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had commented that the future of Afghanistan was directly relational to security and stability in all SCO countries and most observer countries, and that the SCO must endeavor to increase cooperation and involvement in Afghanistan to try and ensure stability in a post-US scenario.

The withdrawal of US troops and NATO from Afghanistan represents a significant shift in the regional and global balance of power – and while Taliban are in the process of establishing their government – they have not formally been recognized by any other nation yet. This is reflective of the wait and see approach. As Taliban get established and their domestic and foreign policies become more apparent – that is likely when the recognition process and financial support starts.

As SCO matures, other questions regarding its vision and capabilities also come in to play. The Dushanbe Declaration stated, it aspires:

“a more representative, democratic, just and multi-polar world order based on universally recognized principles of international law, cultural and civilizational diversity, mutually beneficial and equal cooperation of states under the central coordinating role of the UN.”

While the US has insisted that it will continue ‘over the horizon’ operations in Afghanistan as needed – the withdrawal from Afghanistan represents an attempt towards obtaining strategic clarity – and re-prioritizing its national interests. While US has been striving to Pivot towards Asia for a while, other global distractions have come in the way, and continue to pull US towards the War and Terror related hot-spots.

As the War Against Extremism was being waged, American sway in the Islamic world has been considerably reduced, and other than the Gulf Arab nations, its ties with Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan remain tense. It is interesting to note that Pakistan and India are already full members of SCO. Interestingly, Iran attained full membership, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt also achieved the observer status during the SCO 20^th anniversary convention.

Nonetheless, US and NATO withdrawal increases pressures on SCO, and the member states, to maintain stability in Afghanistan. If it not managed well, it could escalate the regional tussles.

NATO, QUAD, and AUKUS

While SCO contemplates with how it can safeguard its interest in other parts of the world where it carries significant stakes, like Afghanistan or the Pacific, a growing concern for the US is how much it can depend on NATO and other allies to counter threats emanating from global adversaries – such as China and Russia.

European nations have increasingly been seen dealing with both – building trade relations with China and Russia at the expense of US. Moreover, the European allies are increasingly acting as go-betweens – to mitigate ties with those nations with which US has less than amicable relations. For example:

• Under US pressure, UK banned Huawei from developing the 5G networks in 2020 due to security concerns, resulting in strong criticism from Chinese officials. Huawei had been operation in UK for at least 20 years and was an integral part of its 4G network.
• In 2015, France backed away from selling two high tech Mistral warships to Russia, a deal worth $1.6 billion, reportedly due to Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. The deal was highly criticized by US since France is a NATO member and supplying of the ship would have augmented Russian military capabilities.
• Then there is the controversial Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline that goes from Russia to Germany. Merkel government averted sanctions and reached a deal with the Biden Administration in July. The agreement involved investing more than 200 million euros in energy security in Ukraine and sustainable energy across Europe. US-Germany ties were strained considerably when Trump administration decided to pull out 9,500 US troops based in Germany.

“Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive acts against Ukraine, Germany will take action at the national level and press for effective measures at the European level, including sanctions to limit Russian export capabilities to Europe in the energy sector,” a senior State Department official told a CNBC reporter in July.

• Other NATO member, Turkey, bought S-400 missile defense system from Russia in 2017. This resulted in Countering American Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAASTA) kicking in, claiming the deal would threaten NATO alliance and F-35 fighter jets in Turkish fleet. Enacted in 2017, CAASTA urged American allies and partners to not engage in transactions with Russia, Iran, and North Korea or risk sanctions. This has also prevented Pakistan from moving forward with Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project.
• Another American ally, India, is also in the process of acquiring the S-400 air defense system at the cost of $5 billion. According to some reports, India will receive the system by the end of the year.
• In December 2019, US gave a waiver to India to jointly develop the Chabahar Port with Iran, which is seen as a counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port – being erected with Chinese investment. It can serve as an alternative supply route for Afghanistan and to help the country diversify its export opportunities. While the US strategic partnership with India has been evolving, it has remained reluctant in talking stronger role against China or getting engaged in the security realm in Afghanistan. Not only that, it is also ironically a full member of SCO. And thus, serious questions continue to be raised about the efficacy of QUAD alliance.

And this is where the trilateral alliance AUKUS, announced on September 15, comes into play. From the American perspective, one can observe what is the use of alliances or strategic partners that have significant divergent interests – as has been demonstrated from the behavior of European allies, that have to be cajoled to contribute more towards their defense spending – and cut down their dealings with adversarial powers. The quality of the alliance is more critical than the quantity of partners.

Managing the Rise of China

For US the question has remained how best to counter China which since its admission to the World Trade Organization in 2001, has gotten fully intertwined in global trade. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement signed in February 2016, and dumped by Trump in 2017, represented the economic approach to deal with China. The recently formulated AUKUS pact between Australia, UK, and US is a security-oriented alliance.

The best approach would involve more economic dimension – according to Fareed Zakaria’s Washington Post column, titled: To contain China, joining the Pacific trade pact might be more effective than new submarines. But there is another dimension to this debate that was last heard prominently during the Obama administration – and has to do with coexistence. Speaking at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) event in July, the White House coordinator for Asia Pacific, Kurt Campbell, admitted that coexistence is still possible but expect a period of uncertainty and raised tensions.

Speaking at the inception ceremony of ASPI in 2014, Henry Kissinger had stated while the Russian aggressiveness in Europe is clearly worrisome, it’s China that has the size and the economic wherewithal to challenge US. Moreover, this challenge does not appear to be a military one but perhaps more of an economic one. However, ever since, Chinese military capabilities are increasing by leaps and bounds.

Speaking at the same ASPI event in 2014, then Chinese Ambassador to the US, Cia Tiankai, had insisted they are not against the US presence in the Pacific; after all they have been there for a while. Furthermore, US businesses have large presence within China as well. What they (Chinese) are worried about is the US intent when it is building alliances in the region and conducting military exercises. When asked about what Kissinger’s advice would be for the Chinese and the US in the present circumstances (2014). He stated that he would tell China to not let the military issues overhang in their ties, while he will tell US not to get involved in military provocations, exercises in the region, or develop bases.

The post Status of Global Alliances: US Afghan Withdrawal, Evolution Of SCO, And Creation Of AUKUS appeared first on Politact.

By Arif Ansar

Context

The North Korean crisis has emerged as another serious foreign policy challenge for the Trump administration. And this is happening at a time when his presidency is confronted with a number of difficult issues at the domestic and international front. Normally the American president has considerable discretion when it comes to the foreign affairs front, and they often leverage it when they find themselves on the back foot domestically – to reassert authority.

In this context, President Trump has had to face repeated setbacks in his efforts to repeal the Obamacare health care system, and this happened despite Republicans controlling the House and the Senate. His presidency also continues to be bedeviled by the investigation related the Russian interference in the American election, and the contacts between a number of his close associates with people close to Putin. The appointment of Robert Mueller as a special counsel to oversee the probe looks further ominous.

Reset with Russia was one of the pivots around which Trump’s policy was anchored. However, Trump has been unable to make progress towards this goal. Soon after the July meetings with Putin during the G20 Summit held in Hamburg, Germany, Congress imposed more sanctions against Russia. Putin reciprocated by evicting close to 750 American diplomats from Russia.

On the other hand, review of the Afghan policy is also ongoing but much delayed and there is considerable anxiety in the policy-making circles about this. This has led Senator McCain to announce his own Afghan strategy. The Trump administration also appears to be moving towards nullifying the Iran nuclear deal.

And as if this was not enough, the North Korean crisis has taken a turn for the worst and is impacting US-China affairs. Increasingly, China is being asked to use its influence, if it has any, to control the belligerence of North Korea. Meanwhile, the country has continued its ballistic missile tests. After imposition of additional sanctions against it, North Korea raised the stakes by threatening to launch missiles towards the American territory of Guam.

China, North Korea, and Russia

As these matters unfold, a thinking is developing in the US that if China cannot stop North Korea, then it should suffer the consequences of any military escalation. Meanwhile, as Trump delivered his dramatic ‘fire and fury’ comments, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford travelled to China to convey that military solution will only be implemented if political and economic routes to prevent the North Korean regime from developing nuclear tipped ballistic missiles have been exhausted. The crisis seems to have deescalated for now and Kim Jong Un also appears to have put his plans to fire missiles towards Guam on hold.

The collapse of North Korean regime poses a serious challenge for China. It would cause floods of refugees to cross over to China. Moreover, the fall of an ally in the Pacific would be the last thing China would want to see. At the same time, there is the question of what purpose does North Korea serve for China. Could it be that through Kim Jong Un’s rash behavior China is testing the response and will of the US, realizing that the Americans have been military involved for more than a decade in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

The element of ‘testing the US response’ could also have played a role when Russia acted more assertively in Syria and in Europe, especially relating to the affairs of Ukraine and taking over of Crimea. On the other hand, China has up to this point escaped any direct external military involvement, but this may change in the future.

China remains anxious regarding the emerging US policies in the Pacific region, particularly towards Taiwan and the disputed islands of South China Sea. Additionally, China probably draws a parallel to the situation in the Middle East – and whether a regime changes-type formula might be applied to the rash regime of North Korea. Not surprisingly, China has protested the deployment of the THAAD (anti-missile system) in South Korea. The country has also recently increased its involvement in Afghanistan, which represents the other flank for China.

In addition to skirmishes along the Pakistan, India Line of Control, tensions are also building between China and India over their shared border. The armed forces of both nations are face to face since June in the plateau area known as Donglang and Dokhlam. Quoting Indian sources, Reuters recently reported that Chinese forces tried to enter the Indian territory of Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir State.

China has also built its first military base in Djibouti, located in the strategic Horn of Africa. While the projected focus of this base is primarily geared towards anti-piracy and humanitarian crises related missions, its strategic location will help China monitor its interests in Africa and the Middle East.

When it comes to South Asia, the success of China’s “One Belt One Road” economic initiative, and one of its tributaries is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, is heavily dependent on the security situation of Pakistan and Afghanistan. And the associated Gwadar Port provides China an alternative sea access in case the Strait of Malacca was blocked, and there are rumors regarding militarization of this port at some point in the future.

Conclusion

In this perspective, North Korea helps China, and Russia, balance the affairs of the Pacific, and to counter assertive actions being taken by an alliance represented by India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the US. In the South Asia region, this balancing role is more and more being played by Pakistan, in particular reference to the affairs of Afghanistan and India. The future of Afghanistan will determine the balance of power in South and Central Asia, and in this regard there are three possibilities:

The first one being, the major powers agree to the right mix of representation in the future Afghan government. The second possibility being that one or the other side wins comprehensively – and then decides the shape of future government in its favor. The third likelihood is reflected by the present stalemate in which no one clearly wins, but the situation continues to drain the powers directly involved.

The post North Korean Crisis, US-Pakistan Tensions, and Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan and China have denied reports that a recent joint military exercise by the two countries is being conducted with the aim of pressuring India. A report published in the Times of India on Saturday however claimed the exercise was an attempt by China to exert pressure on New Delhi along the Pakistani border, which adjoins the Rajasthan desert. The Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, dismissed the reports as baseless.

The Information Office of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense stated on Tuesday, “According to the annual exchange plan between China and Pakistan’s militaries, the two armies will hold the ‘Friendship 2011’ joint anti-terror exercise near Islamabad.” The training which will start on Nov 16 will provide strategic help to Pakistan through the provision of military arms, ammunition, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).

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India’s desire to obtain Chinese backing for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council suffered a setback as China backed Pakistan for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu conceded that China was considering Pakistan’s request for a seat in the UNSC. Yu said Beijing an Islamabad were “all weather strategic partners” and China wanted its neighbor to play an active role in promoting peace in the region.

India is bidding for a permanent seat in the council. While China welcomed India as a non permanent member, it has not yet announced if it will support New Delhi’s bid for permanent membership. China is the only permanent members of UNSC which is yet to announce its decision to support India.

The post China Supports Pakistan Bid For Non-Permanent UNSC Seat appeared first on Politact.

India’s desire to obtain Chinese backing for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council suffered a setback as China backed Pakistan for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu conceded that China was considering Pakistan’s request for a seat in the UNSC. Yu said Beijing an Islamabad were “all weather strategic partners” and China wanted its neighbor to play an active role in promoting peace in the region.

India is bidding for a permanent seat in the council. While China welcomed India as a non permanent member, it has not yet announced if it will support New Delhi’s bid for permanent membership. China is the only permanent members of UNSC which is yet to announce its decision to support India.

The post Clinton Steps Up PressuClinton Steps Up Pressure On Pakistan, Talibanre On Pakistan, Taliban appeared first on Politact.

India will now deploy light observation helicopters and spy drones along its border with China in an attempt to keep an eye on the accelerated maneuvers of People’s Liberation Army. The construction of more than 5,500 permanent bunkers and defenses on the borders is being speeded up to make sure they are completed within 4-5 years. A series of top meetings during the last couple of months, including a high-level military briefing to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, have focused on the urgent need to boost the country’s military infrastructure, operational logistics and strike capabilities on the border area. China’s rapidly-growing involvement in infrastructure schemes in Pakistani-controlled-Kashmir, in the backdrop of Islamabad-Beijing military nexus targeting India, has further heightened concerns amongst Indian defense establishment.

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Top leaders of India and China reaffirmed hopes cherished by two nations to maintain peace and tranquility on their borders, and significantly boost their economic and trade ties. President Hu Jintao of China and visiting Indian PM Manmohan Singh held one-on-one meetings in the subtropical island of Hainan, where the two leaders are due to be joined by the presidents of South Africa, Brazil and Russia on Thursday for the BRICS Leaders Meeting. New Delhi and Beijing plan to set up a coordination and consultation mechanism for resolving their border disputes, officials said after the Singh-Hu talks.

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China issued a defense white paper on Thursday in which it made it clear that its national defense policy is intended to resist and guard against aggression, ensure the safety of China’s lands, airspace, inland waters and territorial waters, and to safeguard its maritime interests and rights. The white paper, entitled “China’s National Defense in 2010,” outlined China’s policy of continuing to enhance naval power so as to strengthen national security. As many countries are looking to alter their atomic plans in the wake of Japan’s nuclear crisis, the white paper emphasized the peaceful use of atomic power, clarifying China’s aim to develop its atomic power industry.

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