Context

The talk about the military operation in North Waziristan has picked up feverish pace. This is not the first time, in the last decade, and historically, Waziristan has been the bone of contention several times before.

The attempt here is not, as many other assessments are doing, to name different locations along with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda leaders who may have been killed in Waziristan. Nor is the emphasis on presenting the best tactical approach to conduct the operation. Rather the focus is on the less talked about dimension: how does the operation fit in the larger vision and strategy?



Analysis

Vision, Strategy And Tactics

Obviously, tactics and strategies are two different things, and are suppose to be connected to the larger vision. A vision is an ideal future state that an entity may be striving for. On the other hand, strategy lays out the best approach to accomplish the vision. Different tactics may be deployed in support of a selected strategy. However, too much emphasis on tactics, without consideration for the strategy and the grand vision is a sure recipe for failure. At the same time, the vision and strategy cannot be set in stone, as the reality is quite dynamic. Thus, to be successful, any shrewd strategist has to constantly adjust lofty goals to the ground reality.

Applying this logical structure to the present AfPak predicament presents an alarming misalignment between the vision, strategy and tactics. We have a vision that is dramatically disconnected with ground circumstances and reliance on tactics and strategies that have long outlived their utility.

Afghan Transition

One of the goals of the revised American strategy is to withdraw majority of its troops from Afghanistan by 2014 and shift most of the security responsibilities to Afghan forces. However, the Afghans have demonstrated scarce ownership for the nation’s defense and are more inclined on blaming almost all and everything on its neighbor: Iran and Pakistan. In an alert issued in February 2012, PoliTact had noted:

“The killing of western security personnel at the hands of Afghan troops is creating a dangerous environment for NATO operations in Afghanistan. US exit strategy is built on training and handing over the security affairs to Afghan forces by 2014. However, the recent events [green on blue attacks] have put the reliability of the future US strategy in Afghanistan in to question, which is increasingly perceived as not respectful of the Afghan culture.”

Around the time of the Quran burning incident, Martine van Bijlert of the Afghanistan Analysts’ Network wrote in an analysis, “The demonstrations are a combination of religious outrage, pent-up frustration and groups wanting to stir trouble”. “It is difficult to predict how bad things will get; this will depend largely on who manages to control – or hijack – the expressions of anger.”

The crux of the matter remains; who has the upper hand in this conflict. If Taliban were to be decisively beaten militarily, the achievement of the political solution would have been much easier. However, Afghanistan has never lent itself to such easy formulations. In absence of this, one would assume that one or the other party would move towards compromise. Although they have gestured, neither NATO nor Afghan Taliban appear willing to do that. The Qatar dialogue process lies in ruin, with the continued insistence on military tactics to bring warring parties to the negotiating table.

Eliminating Safe Havens

The other goal of the new vision was to prevent Afghanistan from ever becoming a safe haven for the extremists. The performance of the campaign against terror in this regard is checkered at best and depends on the narrative adopted. Yes, the highly visible goal of eliminating the Al-Qaeda head honchos has been achieved but they have also been replaced.

The war has spread to many new corners. In addition to Afghanistan, many new safe havens have popped up all over the map, to include FATA. Sectarian and ethnic tensions and fault lines are threatening many a nation-state in the region. The balance of conservative, liberal and religious forces has been tilted almost to the tipping point. Whereas at the start of the war against extremists, the equilibrium was securely in favor of the liberal and secular forces.

Additionally, it’s not clear where the campaign ends. After Taliban, Pakistan still has to take care of Kashmir related jihadist, such as the LeT, the perpetrators of Mumbai attack. On the other hand, the classification between good versus bad extremists has reemerged with increased relevance in the case of Syria.

Regional Approach

With enhanced western concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and the level of its involvement in Syria, it is unlikely the country will cooperate in Afghanistan. US and Pakistan ties are only beginning to emerge from the shadows of the Mohmand tragedy. In short, another premise of the strategy focused on regionalism, lies flat on its back.

The global support for the Afghan war is also waning. The US-Russia reset has not turned out what it was hoped, especially on matters related to Syria and the missile defense system. On the other hand, the US continues to build up its military presence in the Pacific, irking China. Not only this, the global recession is taking a serious toll on the American and the European economies, with the fate of European Union marred with uncertainty. This only ups the pressure to quickly draw down in Afghanistan, as the NATO allies loose the appetite for perpetual conflict there. Moreover, US itself wants to shift more of the focus to the pacific realm.

Conclusion

It is in this context that we should evaluate the North Waziristan operation. Even if it actually does materialize this time, it will only buy temporary respite and will cause more internal strife in Pakistan. The safe havens will move and emerge somewhere else. The operation is likely to widen the war and engulf Pakistan more fully, and start another spiral of military operations that can last another decade, with no clear victors.

This begs the question; if the tactics and strategies being employed are failing to produce the desired outcomes, why continue to use them. Perhaps, the stated vision is not real, as Sun Tzu wrote in the Art of War, all war is based on deception.

The post The AfPak Vision And North Waziristan Operation appeared first on Politact.

Pakistani forces backed by military helicopters clashed with the Taliban in North Waziristan on Wednesday, officials and witnesses said. The unexpected clashes come just a day after three Pakistani troops were killed in a bomb blast and though security officials confirmed forces were in action, this wasn’t the beginning of a major operation, long demanded by the US. Officials said forces were dynamiting a hospital where militants were being treated. According to media reports, several blasts were heard and militants were seen firing on army checkpoints with rocket launchers and automatic weapons in Miranshah, around 300 kilometers southwest of Islamabad.

The post Pakistani Forces Clash with Taliban in N. Waziristan appeared first on Politact.

Pakistani military will soon conduct a military operation against extremists in Kurram tribal region in an attempt to deprive Taliban of one of their major safe havens on the Pak-Afghan border. The announcement was made Wednesday by Lieutenant General Asif Yasin Malik, the commander for northwestern areas. But he made it clear that the military would not launch an operation in North Waziristan any time soon, saying the forces were too busy combating militants elsewhere. Pakistani military has been criticized heavily in the US, particularly after Osama bin Laden’s death in Pakistan on May 6th, for not doing much against militants on its soil.

The post Pakistan to Conduct Military Operation in Kurram appeared first on Politact.

A Taliban spokesperson and commander who claimed responsibility for carrying out bombings and running suicide training camps in Pakistan was shot dead by unidentified gunmen on Monday in the tribal area of North Waziristan, according to media reports. Shakirullah Shakir, who belonged to Fidayeen-i-Islam and was serving under Hussain Mehsud, was killed as he rode his motorbike in the Miranshah area. According to intelligence officials, the attackers came in a sports vehicle with tinted glasses. The Taliban have not confirmed Shakir’s death.

The post Report: Fidayeen-i-Islam Commander Shot Dead in N. Waziristan appeared first on Politact.

Around 150 men carrying heavy weapons and rockets stormed a security checkpoint in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal area on Thursday night, leaving eight soldiers dead, according to intelligence officials. Twelve attackers were also killed in counterattack by armed forces. The attack happened in Makeen, a town on the border between South and North Waziristan, at a time when America has stepped up drone strikes in the areas along the Afghan border. The US has been urging Pakistan to launch a ground operation in North Waziristan, which is known as a stronghold of Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters.

The post Pakistani Troops Killed In N. Waziristan Clash appeared first on Politact.

Around 23 militants were killed on Wednesday when their compound was targeted by US drones in Shawal tehsil in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal area. The building was reportedly being inhabited by fighters loyal to local Taliban leader Hafiz Gul Bahadur.

The strike comes just two days after three drone attacks were carried out in South Waziristan, and the reported death of Al-Qaeda leader Ilyas Kashmiri last week. Meanwhile, Moulvi Younas, a senior commander and spokesman for Mullah Nazir, has threatened to step up fight against US and NATO troops in Afghanistan to avenge intensified drone attacks on militants in Pakistani tribal regions. He added their pact with Pakistani government remains intact. Mullah Nazir is a close affiliate of Hafiz Gul Bahadur.

The drone attacks on militants linked to Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Mullah Nazir indicates US is now going after militants Pakistan classifies as Good Taliban, as they have not carried out attacks against it. However, they are widely believed to be linked to Al Qaeda and assist Afghan Taliban in conducting raids against NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Hafiz Gul Bahadur operates from North Waziristan while Mullah Nazir is based in South Waziristan. On the other hand, Hakimullah Mehsud led Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is also located in South Waziristan and has openly declared war against Pakistan.

The post Drones Strike Good and Bad Taliban In North And South Waziristan appeared first on Politact.

Context
Pakistani military lodged a protest yesterday and called for a meeting with NATO officials after coalition helicopters attacked Admi Kot check Post, near Datta Khel in North Waziristan. The attack resulted in wounding two Pakistani soldiers. The incident ocurred one day after Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani met US Senator John Kerry, amid growing tensions between the two countries since the death of Osama Bin Laden on May 2nd. A NATO military official in Kabul told reporters that two coalition helicopters had returned fire after they came under attack from Pakistan.

This is also the area where previously a number of controversial drone attacks have occurred. Pakistan has protested strongly when drones have targeted militants belonging to Haqqani network or Hafez Gul Bahadur, which are considered friendly towards Pakistan. Since the elimination of Osama bin Laden, US has demanded Pakistan launch an operation in North Waziristan. Yesterdays incident can be seen as a pressure tactic to test Pakistan’s response and possibly to pressure the nation in to action against militants hiding in North Waziristan Agency.
 

The post Coalition Helicopters Attack Pakistani Check Post appeared first on Politact.

Context

After years of sectarian bloodshed between Shia and Sunni tribes of Kurram tribal district, the warring sides have reached a peace agreement. Shia and Sunni rival militants have agreed not to attack each other, to include personnel and property. Additionally, the entire tribal agency of Kurram would be opened up for free movement of people and goods. However, the deals impact on US-Pakistan relations and US Afghan Strategy is going to be far less promising. This article examines the implications of just reached Kurram peace deal.

militants have agreed not to attack each other, to include personnel and property. Additionally, the entire tribal agency of Kurram would be opened up for free movement of people and goods. However, the deals impact on US-Pakistan relations and US Afghan Strategy is going to be far less promising. This article examines the implications of just reached Kurram peace deal.

Analysis

Conflict in Kurram has led to internal displacement of hundred and thousands, who had to leave their homes, lands and properties at the mercy of the antagonists. Shias and Sunnis in Kurram Agency have carved up their respective strongholds in different areas. Due to detriorating situation, they are compelled to move to localities and communities where their particular sect has a majority and control.
A huge number of families left the district altogether to escape death and destruction. An estimated 3,000 have died and more than 3,400 seriously injured in sectarian clashes between Shias and Sunnis. These clashes have been taking place between Shia majority population of Kurram tribal district and the extremely anti-Shia, Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters backed by local Sunnis.

What Led To The Peace Agreement

Both warring sides needed the peace agreement in Kurram. On the one hand, the blockade of roads created obstacles for the Shia population to leave the area, while at the same time, making it difficult for the Sunnis to move into the Kurram Valley. This situation pressured the Shia community members to negotiate peace with Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Facing considerable pressure in North and South Waziristan, TTP and Al Qaeda needed space to maneuver and launch attacks in Afghanistan. Kurram could provide this space if the endless fighting there ended. This caused them to support the local Sunni community and hold talks with Shias through a tribal jirga.

Groups And Individuals Involved In Negotiations

There have been media reports, which appear to be credible to a certain extent, on the instrumental role of Siraj and Khalil Haqqani in bringing about this peace deal. Some observers are of the view that the support of Haqqani network actually made peace possible in Kurram, and it prevailed over TTP to support the process.

The head of TTP in Kurram Agency, Fazal Saeed, held a press conference after the agreement and has vowed to extend all-out support to the government and security forces to implement the peace agreement reached between elders of the Sunni and Shia sects. Saeed also stated that militants would hand down severe punishment under the Shariah if any party flouted the peace deal. Saeed asked the Shias to use roads including the Thall-Parachinar Road without any fear as the TTP was not against the peace deal. With TTP extending support to peace in Kurram, the cessation of hostilities between the warring parties is expected to last.

For the purpose of restoring peace to Kurram, a 220 member tribal jirga led the negotiation and conciliation process. The jirga was headed by former federal minister, Malik Waris Khan Afridi of Khyber Agency. Member of National Assembly Sajid Toori from Parachinar and Member of National Assembly Muneer Orakzai, also played leading roles to bring the two sides to the negotiation table. The tribal jirga had the full backing of Pakistan government.

Implications Of The Kurram Peace Deal

The peace deal in Kurram could have the following implications:

• It can be safely assumed that Shia leaders have agreed to remain indifferent to Al Qaeda and Taliban activities in Kurram, and have in return received assurances that they would no longer be attacked, and their blockade would be lifted. One of the key provisions of the agreement is regarding the opening up of Thall-Parachinar road that has remained closed for the last 4 years.
• Attacks on US and NATO forces in Afghanistan are likely to increase as a result of the agreement in Kurram and would complicate the US strategy to gain an upper hand over Taliban. Thus, the truce would be unacceptable to Coalition Forces involved in combat there.
• It is almost certain that the peace deal is going to further deteriorate the US-Pakistan relations, which are already stressed since the Raymond Davis incident in Lahore. The tripartite talks to be held this month between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and US have already been postponed. It is believed to be the first retaliatory action taken by US. It should also be noted that the September 30th, 2010 NATO helicopter attack in Kurram took place only a few days after rumors had surfaced regarding peace talks in Kurram Agency. That helicopter attack eventually led to the temporary closure of the key supply lines for NATO forces in Afghanistan
• The last time Pakistan got involved in peace deals with Taliban in Waziristan and Swat, the outcome resulted in strengthening the grip of extremists. The Pakistan government must have ensured some conditionality, through the participation of Afghan Taliban, to prevent history repeating itself in Kurram and to counter international criticism.

Tell Us What You Think

The post Peace Agreement In Kurram Agency, Raymond Davis And US-Pakistan Relations appeared first on Politact.