Retaliation was expected from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for or a number of reasons, the most important being the death of Baitullah Mehsud; thus preventive and protective measure were in place. TTP has struck in Peshawar, Kohat, and Bannu, accompanied by assassinations of tribal leaders supporting the government backed militias, the lashkars.

The timing of the weekend attacks is noteworthy, as they occurred against the backdrop of the passage of the Kerry-Lugar bill and the meeting of President Zardari and the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, which he co-chaired with President Obama and Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The meeting was intended to demonstrate global support for Pakistan’s campaign against extremists. The purpose of the TTP’s attack, on the other hand, was to show that it is alive and kicking.

For the extremists to be able to once again penetrate the peripheries of the most secure areas of Peshawar tells volumes about the incapacity of the civilian security apparatus of NWFP/Pukhtunkhwa in particular and Pakistan in general. Like the earlier attack on the PC hotel in Peshawar, this incident could and should have been prevented. After all, three previous attacks have been attempted at the same location.

Here we examine the history of high-profile attacks on Saddar Bazaar in Peshawar and also propose some common sense countermeasures, much needed during times of heightened and unprecedented threat levels. Although these measures relate largely to Peshawar, they can also be successfully employed in other cities. We also look at the volatile geopolitics of the region, especially in light of the US decision to overhaul its missile defense system, to the delight of Russia.

Analysis

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Taliban Targeting Pattern

Saddar Bazaar on the whole presents a valuable target area. Saddar and Qissa Khawani Bazaar are the two most well-known shopping centers of Peshawar.  If Saddar is the shopping area of choice for the middle and upper-classes, Qissa Khawani is a ‘go to’ for working people and much less secure. Both were frequently attacked during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan; the attacks were blamed on the Afghan Intelligence Service, KHAD. Over the years, the government has repeatedly failed to ensure the security of the Bazaar. Past incidents included the bombing of a general store, Wadud Sons, which resulted in the deaths of more than 40 people. In the 80s, a bombing destroyed the nearby office of the Pakistan International Airlines.

The exact location of the present attacks included a wedding hall, a popular upscale carpet shop often frequented by foreigners and a military-affiliated civilian bank, the Askari.  It is worth noting that the exact location had already been subject to attack, albeit with less tragic consequences.  The sorry performance of the civilian security apparatus is inexcusable.

Based on this anecdotal information PoliTact can confidently predict that due to the limited number of high value targets in Peshawar City, Saddar Bazaar will be the scene of more attacks if appropriate countermeasures are not taken immediately.

The TTP has the following targeting pattern:

• Pakistan military-affiliated businesses or in general, locations frequented by present or past military officials or their families (such as Askari Bank, Welfare Shops, etc.).
• Places frequented by foreigners, e.g., Aid and diplomatic officials (such as carpet shops and hotels).
• Clergymen outspokenly critical of Taliban teachings, tactics and strategies.
• Locations connected with Pakistan’s intelligence and security personal, including suspected locations of foreign security and intelligence officials (many of these are located in the Cantonment area and are often accessible from the Khyber Road).
• As in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Police.

Based on the above analysis, it’s not difficult to discover potential Taliban targets in a small city like Peshawar. The next target could easily be the shopping plazas that surround the suburb of University Town, where many foreign officials reside. Another one could be the residences of high-level government officials or the International Airport of Peshawar.

Counter Measures

It’s not enough to simply identify potential threats – one must suggest countermeasures. The following is a list of some simple and commonsensical counter-terrorism measures that can go a long way towards protecting the lives and property of citizens. All emphasize the involvement of the community in civil defense duties.

• Have best trained counter-terrorism experts and security personnel monitor the lower ranks of the police. These individuals often belong to the military. This will ensure that proper security procedures and protocols are being followed, especially during times of national and religious holidays, meals, prayers, night and shift rotation, etc. If this not already taking place, it should be given priority.
• Medium and large-size trucks should never be allowed access to sensitive facilities, so these facilities must not have adjacent parking lots in order to avoid falling victim to VBIEDs.  This should be adopted as a standard security procedure.
• Peshawar’s Saddar Bazaar and many other shopping centers in the country are situated in extremely congested locations. Due to the country’s extraordinary security problems, vehicular traffic in these bazaars should be disallowed. The provision of parking lots that are a 10 to 15 minutes walk from the bazaars can go a long way towards removing the most dangerous threats. Most people will understand the need to exchange a measure of convenience for safety.
• Induct the private guards of the business and shops located in these bazaars into the government-sponsored Civil Security Awareness and Training Program. The objective of these short orientations should be to train these individuals in identifying potential trouble- makers (especially during the stage when extremists carry out surveying and target selection), in addition to providing a better understanding of countermeasures and reporting procedures.
• Use civilian transport system drivers, especially of buses, taxis and rickshaws, as informants to report suspicious activities in the city. Day laborers can also be very useful for monitoring purposes. Some of these techniques have been employed very successfully in Saudi Arabia.
• The Government should develop and sponsor a Community Security Awareness Program using media campaigns. The main goal of these campaigns should be to enhance public awareness of the fact that life cannot be expected to continue normally under the present security conditions; every citizen has an obligation to act as a security guard in his/her neighborhood, as is in countries like Israel, where college students are recruited into highly responsible civil defense and security duties. Pakistan can draw on the experience of the NCC (National Cadet Corps) for this purpose.
• Promote the use of Ring Road as a detour and alternative to the use of Khyber Road and possibly Jamrud Road as well. The use of Khyber Road for commercial traffic, or minimally to trucks and buses, should immediately stop during the emergency period. (If this measure was in place, the suicide attack on the PC Hotel could have been averted.)

Geopolitics

The Pakistani Army has every reason to launch the much-awaited ground operation against TTP in Waziristan, but it has to walk a sensitive line of non-interference with respect to the Afghan Taliban, who have remained friendly towards Pakistan. After the Swat Operation, the United States is once again ratcheting up the pressure. With the US and NATO increasingly caught up in a sticky position in Afghanistan, where the insurgency is fast getting out of control, Pakistan cannot escape some of the blame for the worsening situation there.

After the US decisions to revamp their missile defense system, Russia is courting Iran. How firm Russian and Chinese support of stronger sanctions against Iranian nuclear belligerence will be remains to be seen. Meanwhile China is gradually coming out more strongly against the growing US presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. While there is again much talk in the media of US drone attacks and special forces raids in Quetta and other places, the goal appears more to pressure Pakistan into action in Waziristan than anything else.

From Pakistan’s point of view, the US will sooner or later have to realize that without talks with the Afghan Taliban, the situation in Afghanistan is not going to improve. By changing its stance on the missile defense system in regard to Russia, the US has probably convinced the Taliban that victory is just around the corner. The US needs the help of its ally, Pakistan, more than ever in order to deal with Afghanistan and understands that Pakistan’s willingness to act is predicated on considerations of its security interest vis-a-vis India, as well as the civilian and military aid promised to Pakistan under the Kerry-Lugar bill.

Although President Obama is now approaching a decision regarding a new strategy for Afghanistan, we believe that it will be difficult to reverse or alter the institutional momentum built up over the last eight years. Any change will most likely be incremental.

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The post The Emerging Geopolitics The Suicide Bombing in Peshawar -The Revenge Attacks Begins appeared first on Politact.

Context

In the aftermath of the NATO attack on Pakistan’s check post in Mohmand Agency on November 26th, the country protested strongly claiming it was ‘unprovoked’ and ‘deliberate’. About 24 Pakistani troops had died in the attack. Subsequently, Pakistan blocked NATO’s Afghan supply line, gave a 15 day notice to the Americans for vacating the Shamsi airbase, and boycotted the Bonn conference.

Although US and NATO passed condolences and sincere regrets, they did not apologize. Meanwhile, Pakistan refused today to take part in the joint NATO investigation of the incident. Now a more serious escalation is taking shape that cannot be simply discounted as rhetoric.

Analysis

Pakistan denied claims by the Wall Street Journal that Pakistani officials gave the go ahead for the NATO strike which killed 24 people. A Pakistani military official denied the report; “Without getting clearance from the Pakistan side, the post had already been engaged by US helicopters and fighter jets. Pakistan did not have any prior information about any operation in the area,” he said.

US officials have however said US commandos came under fire from a camp along the border with Pakistan which turned out to be a military post. They said the US commandos contacted the joint border-control to determine if there were any Pakistani military personnel in the area. When called, the Pakistani representatives at the centre said there were no Pakistani military forces in the area identified by the commandos, clearing the way for the air strikes, the US officials said. Washington has ordered an investigation into the incident and for a formal report to be submitted by Dec 23.

Pakistan has declared it will retaliate if NATO forces attack its territory again. General Kayani after a meeting with his top commanders commented that NATO would now be viewed as a threat. Former Federal Administered Tribal Areas secretary Brig (retd) Mehmood Shah said,

“Until now the focus of security forces at the Afghan border was to take action against militants and stop cross border infiltration but now they will also be keeping an eye on future NATO strikes.”

Defense analyst Lt General (Retd) Abdul Qayum added that according to the decision, Pakistani soldiers would not have to seek approval from their commanders to retaliate against NATO airstrikes. Reports also suggest Pakistan is considering deploying more troops along its borders with both Afghanistan and India and that it has already equipped the troops with the appropriate weaponry.

Meanwhile, according to a British newspaper, NATO has decided to increase its operations against insurgent groups in Pakistan. The military organization is considering escalating aerial attacks and cross border ground raids. ISAF commander, General John Allen, said the need to confront the sanctuaries in Pakistan was “one of the reasons we are shifting our operations to the east”.

NATO is hoping to reduce extremism from the tribal belts so that Afghan security personnel will be able to contain the threat when power is handed over in 2014. US and Afghanistan are also likely to sign a strategic deal at the Bonn Conference that allows presence of US troops there up to 2024.

It is unclear how NATO will seek to proceed following last week’s air strikes, which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and raised tensions between Pakistan and NATO. However, PoliTact sees a war of nerves and a much more serious escalation in the making.

The post As NATO Plans To Push In Eastern Afghanistan Gen Kayani Authorizes Troops To Return Fire If Attacked Again appeared first on Politact.

Taliban chief Mullah Muhammad Omar has been missing from his hideout in the Pakistani city of Quetta for the last two or three days, Afghanistan National Intelligence Agency spokesperson Lutfullah Mashal said on Monday. He also claimed that senior Taliban leaders have lost contact with Omar over the last few days. Earlier on Monday morning, officials of the Afghan security agency had reported assassination of the Taliban chief inside Pakistan. However, Mashal said that Omar’s death couldn’t be confirmed “until his body is found.” Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid has denied such reports, claiming that Omar is alive and actively leading his men against foreign forces in Afghanistan.

Since the death of Osama bin Laden, rumors have been circulating the media on who could be next. These reports would play an important role in the Afghan reconciliation process and in pressuring key leaders and stakeholders in reviewing their long-standing positions.

The post Afghan Intelligence: Taliban Chief Omar Disappeared appeared first on Politact.

Context

Soon after meeting Vice President Joe Biden, President Zardari is heading to US to take part in the memorial services honoring Richard Holbrooke. This article examines the significance of this visit as Mike Mullen declared Pakistan the epicenter of global terrorism today. Facing dire economic prospects, Pakistan appears all set to pursue a political solution while US demands an operation in North Waziristan to deal with Afghan quagmire.

Analysis

The memorial service for Richard Holbrooke has turned in to a mini conference of sorts. Not only will the service provide an opportunity to honor his diplomatic services and achievements, but also an occasion for international dignitaries to informally take stock of the Afghan situation. Special representatives for Afghanistan, from many different countries, are attending. Reportedly, Holbrooke used to have a monthly consultation with this group on the situation of Afghanistan. He was also a staunch supporter of Zardari government.

From the point of view US, Zaradri’s visit provides a good opportunity to get his first-hand impression on the situation of Pakistan and its relations with India, including FATA and Afghanistan, and compare it to the military leadership of the country. It would also be interesting to hear his side of the story on the brazen assassination of the Governor of Punjab, Salman Taseer. There is considerable concern in US on how far the religious extremism has spread in Pakistan and what it means for the future of the country.

Zardari travels to US as a much-weakened President. Just a few days ago his Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led coalition government appeared to be falling apart. The only reason it was able to survive was because it made a swift u-turn under political pressure, and reversed the price hikes on fuel it had announced earlier. Furthermore, the fragility of his government means it lacks political clout to muster support for Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST). The IMF, World Bank, and US economic assistance to Pakistan is dependent on the implementation of these provisions. However, these reforms and taxes are highly unpopular in Pakistan. The economy of the country was already reeling from the impact of terrorism, the floods and the energy crisis has nearly crippled the nation’s economy.

In these circumstances, the nations sentiment including that of its military is fast shifting towards a political solution for Afghanistan quagmire and FATA insurgency. A peace initiative supported by Turkey is gaining ground in the region, and as part of this the head of Afghan Peace Committee Burhanuddin Rabbani, recently visited Pakistan. However, US wants Pakistan to take military action in North Waziristan as that would strengthen its position and operations in Afghanistan, and weaken the bargaining leverage of Afghan Taliban.

This difference of premise was also apparent in the media coverage of Joe Biden’s visit to Pakistan. Pakistan’s media bolstered the country has made clear to US that it would no longer accept any Great Game ambitions in Afghanistan, and foreign interference in FATA. Whereas media coverage in US is represented by Mike Mullen’s statement today, stating that Pakistan was the epicenter of global terrorism and that Pakistan Army knows what it has to do to eliminate safe havens.

At this crucial junction of the Afghan war, Pakistan’s military may have decided its time for a political solution, as it can no longer sustain the conflict economically. Before sitting down for talks, US wants Pakistan to carryout the North Waziristan operation and is willing to provide the economic and military assistance the country needs. With anti-American sentiment running high in Pakistan, and economic situation worsening by the day, no government would be able to survive for long if it chooses to disregard public opinion.

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The post President Zardari’s Visit To The US – The Status of Afghan War appeared first on Politact.

Context

As the war in Afghanistan enters a critical phase, a lot rides on who appears to have gained the upper hand at this point, and what that would mean for different stakeholders once US withdraws. The talk of ‘political solution’ and ‘withdrawal’ has already emboldened Taliban, making the American task even harder. An important consideration for the country would be how to balance the rise of assertive China and resurgent Russia and to prevent any single regional player to dominate. This article looks at the shape of future balance of power in Afghanistan that US may regard as acceptable. This job has been complicated by the results of the just concluded US midterm elections.

Afghan Solution

Obviously, with direct US and NATO involvement in Afghanistan, they by far have the heaviest stakes, but ironically, a dissipating ability to manage the future of Afghanistan. That capacity has increasingly shifted to the regional neighbors of Afghanistan and their civilizational and global sponsors. In other words, the solution to Afghanistan lies more in Iran and Pakistan and their partners such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, China, and Russia.

As soon as one involves these countries towards finding an amicable solution, it inadvertently becomes a delicate act of balancing their regional and global ambitions. Nonetheless, by opening the Afghan game-field to other stakeholders, US has demonstrated the premise that it will not allow any single party to prevail in Afghanistan or to develop an alignment of interests with other regional players.

US-Pakistan Relations and Afghanistan

There is a need to understand the global context under which the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue is taking place. US policy on Pakistan is not just a bilateral matter, but an consequence of an elaborate deliberation, involving different foreign policy interests. America is a super power with global interests, and the role of Pakistan fits with in the parameters of its emerging worldview. On the other hand, Pakistan at best is a stagnant regional power which evaluates how it fits in this emerging American world vision. Many experts of the region misinterpret Pakistan’s perspective and threat perception as being myopic and overly India-centric.

However, this view fails to take in to account how Pakistan assesses its place in the emerging global order. Although challenged at many fronts, the country aspires to play a significant regional and global role. When Pakistan sees that despite rendering great sacrifices in the war against terror, US and the budding international system is promoting India, which does not have a border with Afghanistan. This is bound to cause mistrust between US and Pakistan.

In the emerging world in which US is facing an assertive China, Pakistan often appears to be representing Chinese interests in the region and Afghanistan, and at other times, it looks more like a US ally. The fall of Afghanistan in the 80s, from the American point of view, would have represented a Domino Effect and spread of communism in the region. However, in 2010, it could imply Chinese ascendancy in the region. It is this background, which comes in the way of US fully supporting Pakistan.

US-Iran Relations and Afghanistan

It is due to the above laid out circumstances that in addition to India, US invited Iran to join the International Afghan Contact Group. The group gathers the Afghan government, NATO, the EU, U.N. and other key players to assess progress in Afghanistan. Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan commented that it had no problem with Iran joining the group. Moreover, US appears to be appeasing Iran by announcing today that Jundallah has been added to its list of terrorist organizations.

However, the politics of Middle East, Iran’s nuclear ambition, including the Sunni-Shiite tussles, complicates that position. Ahmadinejad had recently commented that he considered Lebanon a part of its ‘security belt’ along with Iraq and Afghanistan, this raised alarm bells in neighboring countries. These worried neighbors in the Middle East include Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel, including Pakistan in the context of Afghanistan.

PoliTact has previously projected that with temperatures running high in the AfPak Theater and the Pacific realm, US can hardly afford affairs worsen in the Middle East. US would prefer tackling these global hot spots in an order of its liking. The country needs Iran’s help in settling Afghanistan and as a counterbalance to the Sunni Jihadist threat. Therefore, it would want to keep matters related to Middle East and Israel, on a low burner for the time being.

Whether the US has cleverly tried to engage Iran in Afghanistan to counter the claims of Afghanistan being Iran’s “security belt” or whether they are trying to find a diplomatic platform to engage with Iran one thing for sure; bring Iran in on Afghanistan under the umbrella of US cooperation, and it will be a crucial turning point in US-Iran relations. If the US can pull this off they will effectively neutralize Afghanistan as a ‘buffer’ for Iran. It may, however, be a strategy of keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

US has been flirting with the idea of bringing Iran on board for some time now. In 2006, the Bush administration asked for Tehran to assist the US efforts in Iraq. When the US later spurned the helped they had asked for, the real opportunity was lost, and it became a sour point in the relationship between the US and Iran.

Obama’s team is not under any illusion that this tactic will create a friend out of Iran, but there is nevertheless hope that engagement and dialogue could soften the stark horizon of US interaction with Iran. Republicans are less optimistic and feel it is showing weakness on the US side. This difference on Iran between Democrats and Republicans, is likely to complicate the future of US Iran policy and the balance of power in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, diplomacy is also about creating leverages. By bringing Iran on board in Afghanistan an urgency is created for the Sunni stakeholders of the AfPak equation as well as the Middle East peace process.

On the other hand, Iran is not waiting around to let US play its bets, and is attempting to improve its traditional economic cooperation with Turkey and Pakistan. And while Russia has recently started to distance itself from Iran, China still maintains substantial economic interests in Iran.

Iran-Pakistan cooperation is best represented by the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project. The IP project was to include India previously, however, the ever-widening US-India strategic relations have put a dent in the Iran-India ties, and this has resulted in India dropping out. Nonetheless, China is more than willing to swap India on the IP project. To counter China, US has long propagated the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India (TAPI) project, which excludes Iran.

Iran, Turkey and the Arab World

As pointed out previously, the Iranian threat plays a balancing role in the AfPak region as well as the Middle East. It helps the Sunni Gulf countries of the region lean towards the United States. For example, to counter Iran, the Gulf States of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently ordered arms from US at the cost of $123.

However, Iran and Saudi Arabia are facing another potential power, Turkey, also vying for leadership of the Islamic world. The emerging role of Turkey as a regional power broker was evident in the recent nuclear swap deal negotiated between Turkey, Brazil and Iran. Turkey is perceived as having tempered the somewhat unpredictable administration in Tehran, a perception certainly not lost, or liked by the Iranians.

While Iran and Turkey are jostling with each other for the limelight, other Arab nations are becoming increasingly alarmed at the role these two non-Arab nations are playing in the region. Arab-Turkish and Arab-Iranian relations are historically fraught, while Turkish-Iranian relations have been getting warmer with every year passing-their current rivalry over the champion of Palestine title belies a firm alliance in development, and the Arab states are not at all happy about it. So much so, that according to media reports, Saudi Arabia has offered Israel using a narrow corridor of airspace over the Kingdom, to better facilitate the bombing of Iranian nuclear installations.

Israel must be looking on aghast at the rise of these two nations in perception in the region, and their growing alliance-although it has not yet made a move to take Saudi Arabia up on its offer of a fly-over corridor for more ‘persuasive’ action against Iran. Furthermore, the developing Turkish-Iranian alliance represents a new Sunni-Shiite bridge-one, which Arabs have been unable to create. This development poses far-reaching consequences for the AfPak conflict in particular and the Islamic world in general.

In the game of public perception, the Arab states are beginning to look more and more pithy, especially when compared with the daring of the Turkish-led flotilla, in stark contrast to the compliant attitudes of the Arab states regarding Palestine-not that the other Arab states do not care for the Palestinian cause, but their reliance on the US, prevents them from taking any actuating steps against Israel in the name of the Palestinians. This is certainly not the case with Iran, and nor, would it seem, with Turkey.

Conclusion

In the emerging scenario, recent events suggest that with the exception of few Gulf countries, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan appear to be on a gradual tilt away from US and towards China. The other resurgent global power, Russia, is unsettling the European balance of power more so, than the Middle East and South Asia. In this context, Iran represents a valuable leverage, which US can use against the Arabs in the Middle East and against the Sunni influences of the AfPak Theater.

To diversify its options and hesitation in allowing Pakistan to dominate the future Afghanistan; it makes sense for US to open the Afghan game field to other stakeholders, such Iran, India, and Russia. In the broader context, the premise of US approach regarding the future of Afghanistan appears to be twofold:

First, to prevent any alignment develop along religious or civilizational lines in the region Secondly, to avert any firm alliance emerge between China and these regional countries. This policy allows US the flexibility to mix and match various interests and achieve what’s possible at this point.

From the perspective of US, the end game in Afghanistan would represent restoring the kind of balance of power there that existed before Taliban took over almost 95% of Afghanistan. The last bastion of resistance to Taliban, Ahmad Shah Massoud, was assassinated on September 9, 2001 followed up by 911. The subsequent US invasion of Afghanistan reversed Taliban gains.

To achieve these premises in the AfPak region, therefore, the role of Iran and India becomes paramount. Afghanistan symbolizes  ‘Lebanon’ of the region, the balance of power there manifests on the whole region. However in the long run, and in the post Operation Iraqi Freedom environment, Iranian influence in the Middle East would still need to be balanced out against those of Sunni Arabs and Israeli interests.

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The post The Status of the Balance of Power in Afghanistan and the Future appeared first on Politact.

Context
According to conflicting media reports, master-trainer of suicide bombers in FATA and one of the main commanders of Pakistani Taliban, Qari Hussain Mehsud, may have been killed in a US drone strike. PoliTact sources in South Waziristan were unable to confirm this news, however, the situation on the ground resembles that of the post Baitullah environment. As the NATO supported Afghan peace talks gain momentum, associated with the news of the release of Mullah Bradar, and the potential death of TTP hardliner presents exclusive risks and opportunities. This article looks at the implications of the possible elimination of Qari Hussain.

Qari Hussain was known as Ustad-e-Fidayeen (Instructor for Suicide Attackers) and has been the principal architect of Taliban terror strategy in FATA and Pakistan. He had a firm grip over the affairs and operational strategy of TTP, and his death will have serious consequences for the entire Pakistani Taliban (TTP) movement. Qari Hussain recently gave a rare interview to Reuters in which he had vowed to ‘soon’ launch attacks in US and Europe. Although Taliban capability for launching such attacks is questionable.

Qari Hussain was the mastermind behind numerous attacks on Pakistani security forces and civilians. His death is expected to reduce the number of terrorist attacks inside the country and potentially alter TTP strategy. It should be pointed out that one of the original motivation for Taliban insurgency in Pakistan has to do with the country lending its support to NATO forces, fighting against Afghan Taliban. In the changing geopolitical situation, in which Afghan Taliban are themselves involved in negotiations with the Afghan Peace Council; the very rationale for TTP existence appears to be vanishing.

This pressure in itself would cause some soul-searching within the TTP ranks, as ruthless attacks inside Pakistan have severely damaged its image. US recently added TTP to the State Departments list of terrorist organizations. Under these circumstances, TTP may be forced to take a political line. The peace talks being facilitated by coalition forces through Karzai government are primarily aimed at warring Afghan factions of Taliban. Some of these Afghan groups, are widely believed to be under considerable influence of Pakistan Army.

One of the key preconditions declared by US, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia for the peace talks to continue, involve Afghan Taliban factions to distance themselves from Al Qaeda. Under the present scenario, Pakistani Taliban may soon find themselves fighting for relevance, and as a consequence may move closer to Al Qeada and other Kashmir jihad related organizations.

This development poses serious challenge for Pakistan and other international stakeholders. In this context, the elimination of dominant and hardline TTP leadership could result in a moderating impact on the organization. Particularly, if Afghan Taliban also choose a more pragmatic approach to end the Afghan quagmire.

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The post The Implications of Possible Elimination of Qari Hussain – The Future of TTP appeared first on Politact.

Context

The supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan, passing through Khyber Pass and border town of Torkham, remains closed. Two increasingly reluctant countries of the Afghan coalition and NATO, France and Germany, are on an alert for possible Mumbai style terror events. The attackers are reported to have trained in FATA. However, on October 6th came the word of Afghan peace talks, which are well underway, and the associated debate about the key positions of various stakeholders. This article looks at pressures of the end game in Afghanistan. The outcome of the present US and Pakistan showdown will determine who has the upper hand at this stage.

Analysis

Only a week ago news media was reporting that Afghan Taliban remain unwilling to negotiate until and unless coalition forces give a date of their withdrawal from Afghanistan. Nonetheless, now the same media sources are presenting a different perspective that senior Taliban are eager to initiate the peace talks, under pressure of being left out. The information and psychological warfare have become a critical component of the larger strategy at this juncture of the Afghan war.

Following are the key positions of the main parties involved in the Afghan conflict:

US and Pakistan Leverages

Pakistan has suffered immensely from the recent devastating floods, which has gravely impacted its economic outlook. At the same time, economically distressed Pakistan is under tremendous pressure to reevaluate its position as it relates to Afghan Taliban, especially the Haqqani network. US believes the Haqqanis are extremely radical in their orientation and too close to Al Qaeda, to be part of any reconciliation. The cross border incursions by coalition forces thus serve as a pressure tactic on the country, to reconsider its position. The underlying message is; if Pakistan does not change its position and act in North Waziristan, the number of cross-border incursions in FATA could increase.

The tactical escalation would range from drone attacks to hot pursuit and ground troops. Such a strategy is meant to put pressure on Pakistan, which can in turn shift to Afghan Taliban, to change their hard line positions and be more amenable to peace talks and settlement.

On the other hand, through closing of NATO supply route, Pakistan is demonstrating the advantages it holds. No doubt, longer the supply route remains closed, and if the attacks on the fuel containers spread in Pakistan, the US operations in Kandahar (Dragon Strike) and other places would be impeded. The Chaman border crossing has remained opened for NATO supplies, however, if relations were to deteriorate further, it could also face closure. Pakistan’s help is also essential in negotiating peace with different Pushtun factions taking part in the Afghan conflict.

There are indications that US is beginning to show receptiveness to Pakistan’s interests. The Guardian newspaper reported on October 6th that US has been in contact with Haqqanis via intermediaries. Furthermore, the US apology offered to Pakistan over the helicopter incident in Kurram Agency, demonstrates there is a willingness to calm the waters for the time being.

Based on media analysis, PoliTact believes US has started to prepare counter leverages that would threaten Pakistan’s military aid. The US is unlikely to touch the civilian economic aid, as it would only increase its negative perception in Pakistan. This also implies the country will continue to back the civilian leadership in Pakistan. At the upcoming strategic dialogue between US and Pakistan on October 22, the economic leverage US holds over Pakistan would increasingly come in to play. In the post floods economic environment, this dynamics will only exasperate the civilian-military relations in Pakistan. To counter US economic leverage, Pakistan will in all likelihood depend on its traditional allies, China and Saudi Arabia.

These events represent the beginning of the first phase of political approach to the Afghan conflict and many hurdles are yet to come. If Pakistan emerges stronger as a result of the Afghan conflict, it would also enhance China’s role in the region, and this is where the prospect of long-term US-Pakistan strategic partnership weakens.

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The post The Pressures of the End Game in Afghanistan and Leverages of US and Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

In POLITACT’s analysis of the bombing in Peshawar, which occurred a little over a week ago, we pointed to some of the weaknesses in the civil security apparatus of the country, whose attitude and aptitude has still not shifted enough to deal effectively with the existing threat. This unresponsiveness was in evidence today when a wily bomber, dressed in paramilitary garb, walked unmolested past security personnel after requesting to use the restroom.

In this article, we examine the intent behind the bombing in more detail, as well as analyze the war of perceptions and perspectives relating to the ‘imminent’ operation in Waziristan. After all, these perceptions and perspectives will almost undoubtedly play an important role in the success of the operation.

Analysis

• Hakimullah Mehsud, widely believed to have died in a scuffle that broke out after Baitullah’s death, appeared at a press conference timed to be released after the WFP attack today, in order to lend credibility to the TTP’s claims to launch suicide attacks across the country. Both Pakistan and the US authorities have been reporting that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is in disarray due to the elimination of the senior leadership of the organization. Furthermore, Pakistan believes that as a result of the Pakistani Army’s successful operation in Swat and in other Tribal Agencies, the ability of the extremists to mount suicide and other destructive attacks across the country have been greatly reduced. The attacks in Peshawar last week and in Islamabad today are intended to disprove this narrative.
• Moreover, the bombing was intended as a message to the Pakistani army as it stands on the threshold of the Waziristan Operation. The extremists are saying that they can withstand the operation, as they did in the past, and continue unhindered attacks like the one today. These attacks are also intended to pressure the government into peace talks, like the one Mowlana Fazul-ur-Rehman of Jamatey Ulema Islam (JUI) initiated last week. His stated objective was to free Pakistan from American pressures to launch an operation in Waziristan. As recent public opinion surveys have shown, Pakistanis are overwhelmingly (by 80%) opposed to supporting the US in a war against extremism. Mowlana Fazl-ur-Rehman’s approach represents a sophisticated attempt to bank on mounting anti-American feeling in Pakistan.
• So it is apparent that public opinion in Pakistan is increasingly anti-American and anti-Taliban. The drone attacks in the Tribal Areas and conflicting messages emanating from the government, regarding not only its role in the drone operations but its relationship with the controversial civilian defense contractors (Blackwater and DynCorp), is discrediting the PPP government and other major politicians of the country, including PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif.  The TTP aims to capitalize on growing public disenchantment; the media debate on the conditions of the Kerry-Lugar bill has further poisoned the atmosphere. Confusing statements from the government on critical matters are interpreted negatively and rumors are generally accepted as truth by the public.
• The TTP’s propaganda strategy is to depict these attacks as part of an insurgency, similar to that in Afghanistan, although, as stated above, public sentiment in Pakistan and other parts of the tribal belt has shifted decisively against TTP style Talibanism in the country. In addition, even the Afghan Taliban has distanced itself from the tactics and strategies of the Pakistani Taliban. While in southern Afghanistan the Taliban enjoy increasing public sympathy, the same cannot be said of the Pakistani Taliban, so they are thus clutching at straws.
• Another reason for targeting the UN affiliated World Food Program was to strike at the critical role of the humanitarian organizations. After all, their work goes a along way towards helping civilians displaced as a result of military operations; in Swat, for example. The assistance provided by these groups is proving instrumental in turning the otherwise apprehensive and confused Pushtun masses against the Taliban. These people are the ones who suffered the brunt of the Taliban’s inhuman brutality.
• Defense Secretary Robert Gates reiterated today that more time will be needed to come up with the right strategy for the Afghanistan Pakistan region. No doubt, the operation in Waziristan is on everyone’s mind. Once it unfolds, it will provide crucial clues as to whether the elimination of the TTP leadership has actually caused disarray and confusion amongst the Taliban rank-and-file, as has been widely reported in the media. Furthermore, the outcome of the operation will also establish whether the approach favored by Vice President Joe Biden, premised on more use of drones and less of soldiers, can be fruitful. Perhaps the most important factor behind the delay of the operation is Pakistan’s attempts to create more tribal wedges and keep Haji Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur neutral while it is being carried out. For US the most critical element is how Pakistan deals with the Afghan Taliban.
• By announcing that the operation is imminent, the Pakistani Army is probably checking on TTP capabilities, to see if can still deliver on its threat regarding more suicide attacks across the country. This early warning is also probably designed to test the TTP’s capacity to withstand prolonged pressure.

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In this article, we examine the intent behind the bombing in more detail, as well as analyze the war of perceptions and perspectives relating to the ‘imminent’ operation in Waziristan. After all, these perceptions and perspectives will almost undoubtedly play an important role in the success of the operation.

Analysis

• Hakimullah Mehsud, widely believed to have died in a scuffle that broke out after Baitullah’s death, appeared at a press conference timed to be released after the WFP attack today, in order to lend credibility to the TTP’s claims to launch suicide attacks across the country. Both Pakistan and the US authorities have been reporting that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is in disarray due to the elimination of the senior leadership of the organization. Furthermore, Pakistan believes that as a result of the Pakistani Army’s successful operation in Swat and in other Tribal Agencies, the ability of the extremists to mount suicide and other destructive attacks across the country have been greatly reduced. The attacks in Peshawar last week and in Islamabad today are intended to disprove this narrative.
• Moreover, the bombing was intended as a message to the Pakistani army as it stands on the threshold of the Waziristan Operation. The extremists are saying that they can withstand the operation, as they did in the past, and continue unhindered attacks like the one today. These attacks are also intended to pressure the government into peace talks, like the one Mowlana Fazul-ur-Rehman of Jamatey Ulema Islam (JUI) initiated last week. His stated objective was to free Pakistan from American pressures to launch an operation in Waziristan. As recent public opinion surveys have shown, Pakistanis are overwhelmingly (by 80%) opposed to supporting the US in a war against extremism. Mowlana Fazl-ur-Rehman’s approach represents a sophisticated attempt to bank on mounting anti-American feeling in Pakistan.
• So it is apparent that public opinion in Pakistan is increasingly anti-American and anti-Taliban. The drone attacks in the Tribal Areas and conflicting messages emanating from the government, regarding not only its role in the drone operations but its relationship with the controversial civilian defense contractors (Blackwater and DynCorp), is discrediting the PPP government and other major politicians of the country, including PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif.  The TTP aims to capitalize on growing public disenchantment; the media debate on the conditions of the Kerry-Lugar bill has further poisoned the atmosphere. Confusing statements from the government on critical matters are interpreted negatively and rumors are generally accepted as truth by the public.
• The TTP’s propaganda strategy is to depict these attacks as part of an insurgency, similar to that in Afghanistan, although, as stated above, public sentiment in Pakistan and other parts of the tribal belt has shifted decisively against TTP style Talibanism in the country. In addition, even the Afghan Taliban has distanced itself from the tactics and strategies of the Pakistani Taliban. While in southern Afghanistan the Taliban enjoy increasing public sympathy, the same cannot be said of the Pakistani Taliban, so they are thus clutching at straws.
• Another reason for targeting the UN affiliated World Food Program was to strike at the critical role of the humanitarian organizations. After all, their work goes a along way towards helping civilians displaced as a result of military operations; in Swat, for example. The assistance provided by these groups is proving instrumental in turning the otherwise apprehensive and confused Pushtun masses against the Taliban. These people are the ones who suffered the brunt of the Taliban’s inhuman brutality.
• Defense Secretary Robert Gates reiterated today that more time will be needed to come up with the right strategy for the Afghanistan Pakistan region. No doubt, the operation in Waziristan is on everyone’s mind. Once it unfolds, it will provide crucial clues as to whether the elimination of the TTP leadership has actually caused disarray and confusion amongst the Taliban rank-and-file, as has been widely reported in the media. Furthermore, the outcome of the operation will also establish whether the approach favored by Vice President Joe Biden, premised on more use of drones and less of soldiers, can be fruitful. Perhaps the most important factor behind the delay of the operation is Pakistan’s attempts to create more tribal wedges and keep Haji Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur neutral while it is being carried out. For US the most critical element is how Pakistan deals with the Afghan Taliban.
• By announcing that the operation is imminent, the Pakistani Army is probably checking on TTP capabilities, to see if can still deliver on its threat regarding more suicide attacks across the country. This early warning is also probably designed to test the TTP’s capacity to withstand prolonged pressure.

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The post Suicide Attack on the World Food Program (WFP) Office in Islamabad And The Imminent Waziristan Operation appeared first on Politact.

Retaliation was expected from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for or a number of reasons, the most important being the death of Baitullah Mehsud; thus preventive and protective measure were in place. TTP has struck in Peshawar, Kohat, and Bannu, accompanied by assassinations of tribal leaders supporting the government backed militias, the lashkars.

The timing of the weekend attacks is noteworthy, as they occurred against the backdrop of the passage of the Kerry-Lugar bill and the meeting of President Zardari and the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, which he co-chaired with President Obama and Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The meeting was intended to demonstrate global support for Pakistan’s campaign against extremists. The purpose of the TTP’s attack, on the other hand, was to show that it is alive and kicking.

For the extremists to be able to once again penetrate the peripheries of the most secure areas of Peshawar tells volumes about the incapacity of the civilian security apparatus of NWFP/Pukhtunkhwa in particular and Pakistan in general. Like the earlier attack on the PC hotel in Peshawar, this incident could and should have been prevented. After all, three previous attacks have been attempted at the same location.

Here we examine the history of high-profile attacks on Saddar Bazaar in Peshawar and also propose some common sense countermeasures, much needed during times of heightened and unprecedented threat levels. Although these measures relate largely to Peshawar, they can also be successfully employed in other cities. We also look at the volatile geopolitics of the region, especially in light of the US decision to overhaul its missile defense system, to the delight of Russia.

Analysis

Taliban Targeting Pattern

Saddar Bazaar on the whole presents a valuable target area. Saddar and Qissa Khawani Bazaar are the two most well-known shopping centers of Peshawar.  If Saddar is the shopping area of choice for the middle and upper-classes, Qissa Khawani is a ‘go to’ for working people and much less secure. Both were frequently attacked during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan; the attacks were blamed on the Afghan Intelligence Service, KHAD. Over the years, the government has repeatedly failed to ensure the security of the Bazaar. Past incidents included the bombing of a general store, Wadud Sons, which resulted in the deaths of more than 40 people. In the 80s, a bombing destroyed the nearby office of the Pakistan International Airlines.

The exact location of the present attacks included a wedding hall, a popular upscale carpet shop often frequented by foreigners and a military-affiliated civilian bank, the Askari.  It is worth noting that the exact location had already been subject to attack, albeit with less tragic consequences.  The sorry performance of the civilian security apparatus is inexcusable.

Based on this anecdotal information PoliTact can confidently predict that due to the limited number of high value targets in Peshawar City, Saddar Bazaar will be the scene of more attacks if appropriate countermeasures are not taken immediately.

The TTP has the following targeting pattern:

• Pakistan military-affiliated businesses or in general, locations frequented by present or past military officials or their families (such as Askari Bank, Welfare Shops, etc.).
• Places frequented by foreigners, e.g., Aid and diplomatic officials (such as carpet shops and hotels).
• Clergymen outspokenly critical of Taliban teachings, tactics and strategies.
• Locations connected with Pakistan’s intelligence and security personal, including suspected locations of foreign security and intelligence officials (many of these are located in the Cantonment area and are often accessible from the Khyber Road).
• As in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Police.

Based on the above analysis, it’s not difficult to discover potential Taliban targets in a small city like Peshawar. The next target could easily be the shopping plazas that surround the suburb of University Town, where many foreign officials reside. Another one could be the residences of high-level government officials or the International Airport of Peshawar.

Counter Measures

It’s not enough to simply identify potential threats – one must suggest countermeasures. The following is a list of some simple and commonsensical counter-terrorism measures that can go a long way towards protecting the lives and property of citizens. All emphasize the involvement of the community in civil defense duties.

• Have best trained counter-terrorism experts and security personnel monitor the lower ranks of the police. These individuals often belong to the military. This will ensure that proper security procedures and protocols are being followed, especially during times of national and religious holidays, meals, prayers, night and shift rotation, etc. If this not already taking place, it should be given priority.
• Medium and large-size trucks should never be allowed access to sensitive facilities, so these facilities must not have adjacent parking lots in order to avoid falling victim to VBIEDs.  This should be adopted as a standard security procedure.
• Peshawar’s Saddar Bazaar and many other shopping centers in the country are situated in extremely congested locations. Due to the country’s extraordinary security problems, vehicular traffic in these bazaars should be disallowed. The provision of parking lots that are a 10 to 15 minutes walk from the bazaars can go a long way towards removing the most dangerous threats. Most people will understand the need to exchange a measure of convenience for safety.
• Induct the private guards of the business and shops located in these bazaars into the government-sponsored Civil Security Awareness and Training Program. The objective of these short orientations should be to train these individuals in identifying potential trouble- makers (especially during the stage when extremists carry out surveying and target selection), in addition to providing a better understanding of countermeasures and reporting procedures.
• Use civilian transport system drivers, especially of buses, taxis and rickshaws, as informants to report suspicious activities in the city. Day laborers can also be very useful for monitoring purposes. Some of these techniques have been employed very successfully in Saudi Arabia.
• The Government should develop and sponsor a Community Security Awareness Program using media campaigns. The main goal of these campaigns should be to enhance public awareness of the fact that life cannot be expected to continue normally under the present security conditions; every citizen has an obligation to act as a security guard in his/her neighborhood, as is in countries like Israel, where college students are recruited into highly responsible civil defense and security duties. Pakistan can draw on the experience of the NCC (National Cadet Corps) for this purpose.
• Promote the use of Ring Road as a detour and alternative to the use of Khyber Road and possibly Jamrud Road as well. The use of Khyber Road for commercial traffic, or minimally to trucks and buses, should immediately stop during the emergency period. (If this measure was in place, the suicide attack on the PC Hotel could have been averted.)

Geopolitics

The Pakistani Army has every reason to launch the much-awaited ground operation against TTP in Waziristan, but it has to walk a sensitive line of non-interference with respect to the Afghan Taliban, who have remained friendly towards Pakistan. After the Swat Operation, the United States is once again ratcheting up the pressure. With the US and NATO increasingly caught up in a sticky position in Afghanistan, where the insurgency is fast getting out of control, Pakistan cannot escape some of the blame for the worsening situation there.

After the US decisions to revamp their missile defense system, Russia is courting Iran. How firm Russian and Chinese support of stronger sanctions against Iranian nuclear belligerence will be remains to be seen. Meanwhile China is gradually coming out more strongly against the growing US presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. While there is again much talk in the media of US drone attacks and special forces raids in Quetta and other places, the goal appears more to pressure Pakistan into action in Waziristan than anything else.

From Pakistan’s point of view, the US will sooner or later have to realize that without talks with the Afghan Taliban, the situation in Afghanistan is not going to improve. By changing its stance on the missile defense system in regard to Russia, the US has probably convinced the Taliban that victory is just around the corner. The US needs the help of its ally, Pakistan, more than ever in order to deal with Afghanistan and understands that Pakistan’s willingness to act is predicated on considerations of its security interest vis-a-vis India, as well as the civilian and military aid promised to Pakistan under the Kerry-Lugar bill.

Although President Obama is now approaching a decision regarding a new strategy for Afghanistan, we believe that it will be difficult to reverse or alter the institutional momentum built up over the last eight years. Any change will most likely be incremental.

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