Context

During the last few weeks, Pakistan’s media has been focused on the events related to Memogate, the aftermath of the NATO Mohmand attack, Bonn Conference, and President Zardari’s health. However, significant developments have also been occurring in another neighboring country of Pakistan: Iran. The nation claims to have brought down a state-of-the-art US surveillance drone near its border with Afghanistan. RQ-170 Sentinel, also known as the Beast of Kandahar, is one of the most sophisticated high-altitude stealth jet drone in US possession. The news gives credibility to the widely held belief in the region and beyond; foreign presence in Afghanistan is for much more than just fighting extremist groups in the Pak-Afghan border areas. These stealth drones represent the future of warfare and are ideally suited for achieving multiple objectives.



Analysis

Pakistan and The Beast

RQ-170 was used over Pakistan as well for monitoring Osama bin Laden, and also during Operation Geronimo, to provide live feeds for the White House. For some reason, the Black Hawk stealth helicopters (UH 60), also used in the operation, got more attention than the Beast.

PoliTact first alerted to the appearance of RQ-170 in the skies of South and Central Asia in December 2009. Around that time, an Israeli website had also reported on this, and subsequently, a US Air Force spokesman had confirmed the presence of the stealth drone in Afghanistan.

The RQ-170 was reportedly deployed for increased intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support for combatant commanders in Afghanistan. However, other than the secret mission to find Osama, one of its other objectives was suspected of flying over the borders of Iran, China, India, and Pakistan for collecting “useful data about missile tests, telemetry, signals and multi-spectral intelligence.” In simple words, the Beast of Kandahar was probably being used for spying missions in Pakistan and Iran, related to the missile and nuclear programs of these two countries.

Future Of Drones

The armed Predator versions of the drones are not only being utilized in Pakistan and Afghanistan but also in Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and recently in Ethiopia. The Washington Post recently reported that United States is building secret drone bases in the Horn of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Ethiopia and Seychelles. The increased use of drones is part of a move related with America’s new counterterrorism strategy, shifting the campaign against extremism from costly battlegrounds toward expanded covert operations.

Drones and other military stealth technologies represent the future of warfare. According to widely quoted figures, China is presently spending 12 percent of its global research and development funding on unmanned aerial technology. On the other hand, Russia spends 8% while the US commits a whopping 56%.

The demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is growing globally. In South and Central Asia alone, the UAV market for border protection is expected to grow around 25 percent or more in the years 2010-2015. According to aerospace consultancy the Teal Group, the global spending on unmanned aircrafts will near $55 billion in the next decade. This growth constitutes demand for air, maritime and space unmanned vehicle systems.

Drone Race

Unlike the US, China is not only trying to develop state-of-the-art drones but is also eyeing the global market. It has especially stepped up its research and is developing jet-propelled and armed unmanned aircraft, which it plans to sell to countries such as Pakistan and those in the Middle East and Africa. Although much of the project remains concealed, Beijing is making serious efforts and steady progress towards developing equivalents to top US surveillance and combat models – the Global Hawk and the Predator. The captured Kandaharian Beast may end up leapfrogging Chinese and Russian drone programs.

On the other hand, in July India announced it would deploy spy drones along its border with China in an effort to keep an eye on the accelerated maneuvers of People’s Liberation Army. The Israelis remain the leading suppliers of UAVs to India. An Israeli company IAI is presently supplying Searcher and Heron UAVs. Another Israeli company, Elbit Systems, is trying to sell Hermes 450, Hermes 900, Skylark I and II UAVs to the Indian military. Additionally, the Indian Air Force is seeking the armed Israeli UAV named Harop.

Meanwhile, several Pakistani companies are involved in UAV production. The more well known versions go by the name of Desert Hawk and Uqaab. The country is also acquiring the German EMT LUNA short-range battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition UAV, and the Italian Galileo Avionica’s Falco tactical unmanned aerial vehicle (TUAV). At the same time, Turkey and Pakistan are also working together on development of UAVs.

The drone race has also entered the realm of space. China is aggressively pursuing the space dual use program, which supposedly has the capacity to counter the space infrastructure used by the global positioning and targeting systems. In January 2007, the country had tested its ground based laser Anti-Satellite (ASAT) capabilities by shooting down one of its aging weather satellites in space; in September 2008, it launched the BX-1 satellite, deployed through the Shenzou-7 spacecraft. Later the BX-1 satellite and the Shenzou-7 performed a fly-by of the International Space Station (ISS). The test was interpreted to mean that the Chinese military could threaten the imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the US, Japan, Russia, Israel and Europe.

This had prompted the United States to launch its first national space policy after a hiatus of ten years, and launching the first ever space drone, X-37b. The space drone X-37b is first unmanned spacecraft capable of conducting combat missions in space. Some space experts are calling this new drone as representing the arrival of the “weaponization” or militarization” of space, the final frontier.

Conclusion

Thus, it is clear that US bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, and other places would be used to send dual-purpose beasts for fighting extremists and for containing adversaries. It is not clear if the people of these countries are ready to own them. However, as the capture of the Kandaharian Beast in Iran shows, the chances of them causing miscommunication and conflicts have increased. There are also serious legal, humanitarian and ethical concerns connected to the drones. For example, Pakistan is already grappling with the erosion of sovereign rights, as a consequence of drone attacks. Although, up until a few days ago, it was hosting drones at the Shamsi air base without the knowledge of its public.

Recently a scientist from the Georgia Tech Research Institute, Charles E Pippin, successfully demonstrated two unmanned automated aircrafts coordinating and identifying tarp targets through sensors. The technology is still a few decades away before it can be used; however, it is already causing alarm about what experts are calling “lethal autonomy.” The world envisioned by science fiction futurists in which robots actually conspire to take over the warring earthlings, now appears all the more conceivable.

The post The Drone War: Iran And The Beast of Kandahar – RQ 170 Sentinel appeared first on Politact.

Media reports indicate that the US military’s unmanned drones, the Predator and Reaper, have been infected by key logging virus. Rob Densmore, a former US navy airman told Al Jazeera that the infection was a common keystroke logging virus – which registers the keystrokes pilots use to control the unmanned drones from afar. It is feared that the virus can potentially allow hackers to gain access into the system. Officials are still figuring out how the systems at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada became infected. The drones despite the virus are continuing to fly in overseas missions, although military drone units at other US Air Force bases have been instructed to stop. The virus despite multiple efforts has not yet been removed from the main base system.

The US flies close to 60 unmanned drones in its international missions.

The post US Drones Contaminated By Key Logging Virus appeared first on Politact.

Context
The demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is growing all over the world. However, because of the fact that such vehicles can be put to lots of uses – surveillance, border patrol, intelligence gathering, attacks on selected targets – the demand is specially high in South and Central Asia. It has been calculated that in South and Central Asia alone, the UAV market for border protection will grow around 25 per cent or more in the years 2010-2015. According to Teal Group, which is an aerospace consultancy, the global spending on unmanned aircrafts will near $55 billion in the next decade. This growth constitutes demand for air, maritime and space unmanned vehicle systems.

Analysis

Drone Technology

There are also confirmed reports of the presence of an unmanned, high-altitude stealth jet drone at the US air base of Bagram, Afghanistan. The RQ-170 Sentinel was manufactured by Lockheed Martin’s Advanced Development Program and has reportedly been deployed for increased intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support for combatant commanders in Afghanistan. The media has further noted its ability to fly over the borders of Iran, China, India and Pakistan for collecting “useful data about missile tests, telemetry, signals and multi-spectral intelligence.” Speculations are rife that the drone, widely known as “The Beast of Kandahar,” is being used for the spying missions in Pakistan and Iran, related most probably to the nuclear programs of these two countries.

The United States is using the Predator UAV successfully against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), effectively killing most of their top leaders. While the Pakistani government openly opposes the use of such methods, observers say that it does not dispute the fact that CIA’s Predator operations in the Pakistani tribal belt have been largely successful. Also, to a large extent, they have supported Pakistan’s own military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan that involve the use of ground troops and the air force.

Meanwhile, the first ever US Air Force unmanned robotic spacecraft, X-37B was launched on April 22 from Florida. Some space experts are calling this new drone as representing the arrival of the “weaponization” or militarization” of space. Other military experts explain that the X-37B is the first unmanned space craft capable of conducting combat missions in space.

Impressed by the performance of US drones against al Qaeda and Taliban, India also wants to deploy drones against Kashmiri Jihadist while Russia might want to use it against Chechens. Israel has also several uses for such technology particularly against Hamas and Hizbollah. Overall, both the Pakistani and Indian militaries are seeking UAVs in large numbers. They are either buying them outright from abroad, developing them on their own or seeking partners for co-development. The versatility and cost effectiveness of UAVs makes them attractive to both militaries. With tensions no better between the neighbors, it is no wonder that the future of UAVs in South and Central Asia is a curve that is set to continually rise.

Indian Drones

The Israelis remain the main suppliers of UAVs to India, selling IAI’s Searcher and Heron UAVs. Another Israeli company, Elbit Systems, is trying to sell Hermes 450, Hermes 900, Skylark I and II UAVs to the Indian military. Additionally the Indian Air Force is seeking the armed Israeli UAV named Harop.

During Aero India 2009 in Bangalore, India’s DRDO put on display the Rustom UAV. The agency is using a design from its light combat aircraft Tejas to build UAVs. The Indian Nishant UAV is used by the Indian Army on the plains of Rajasthan however it cannot climb more than 10,000 feet, so therefore, it cannot be used in high altitude conflicts such as Kargil or Siachen.

Furthermore, the Indian Ministry of Defense wants to procure a number of High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs for the three military services. According to the specifications it has issued, the UAVs should have minimum ceiling altitude of 35,000-feet, 24-hour endurance, 250-km direct line-of-sight data link, etc.

In addition, one Maharashtra based Indian firm will deploy drones to inspect and detect problems with power transmission lines.

In June 2002, Pakistan shot down an Israeli-built Searcher Mark-II, which was on an Indian Air Force mission. Addtionally, the Indians used Israeli UAVs during the Kargil conflict. There have been reports that the Indians may now also use UAVs against the Maoists, who recently killed 75 Indian paramilitary troops in Chhattisgarh state. It will be the first time that UAVs will be used by the Indians in low intensity conflict zones.

Pakistani Drones

Meanwhile, several Pakistani companies are involved in UAV production. One Pakistani firm has made a unique hand-launched mini-rocket UAV, called Firefly. It is a high-speed and a short-range observation system that costs around US$3,000. Another UAV made by the same firm is called Desert Hawk, which has an endurance of two hours. In 2008, Pakistan built the Uqaab UAV, which was launched with much fanfare and initiating ceremony was attended by Chief of the Army Staff.

Pakistan is also acquiring two types of UAVs from Europe. These are the German EMT LUNA short-range battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition UAV and the Italian Galileo Avionica’s Falco tactical unmanned aerial vehicle (TUAV). At the same time Turkey and Pakistan are also working together on development of UAVs.

While Pakistan has sought Predators from Washington, the Obama administration has offered Islamabad unarmed Shadow UAVs for intelligence-gathering purposes. American apprehension perhaps arises from the fact that the technology could make its way to China. However, Pakistan continues to build its case for acquiring armed drones such as Predator and Reaper produced by General Atomics. It wants to eliminate the controversy surrounding the drone attacks taking place in FATA, which have lately been confined to Waziristan area. The country will most likely use US satellites for operating these drones if they get them, as it is unclear if the country posses the requisite space infrastructure. On the other hand, US made drones in Pakistani stockpile makes the Indian nervous as they believe these will eventually be used against them. India is therefore working hard to convince the US Congress and prevent selling of such weapons to Pakistan.

Conclusion

Armed drones have proven to be an effective weapon and tactics against non-state actors involved in asymmetric type warfare. Conventional weapons are largely ineffective against extremist groups, where using them often risk high civilian causalities and possible media exploitation at the hands of terrorists. However, there is a limit to the effectiveness of low flying armed drones when it comes to their use against state actors as they can easily be eliminated by weapons in possession of any moderately capable military. On the other hand, drone such as unarmed Global Hawk which can fly at 60,000 feet for more than 32 hours is a different beast.

The drone race for armed drone of the kinds being used in the AfPak region cannot be understood without comprehending the essential infrastructure it depends on. The drones are integrated with satellite systems to be operational, while being connected to the ground control stations. If these satellites are threatened, the drone technology as well as all other systems and weapons that depend on the global positioning systems become vulnerable.

China particularly is aggressively pursuing the space dual use program, which supposedly has the capacity to counter the space infrastructure of global positioning and targeting systems. In January 2007, China tested its ground based laser ASAT capabilities by shooting down one of its aging weather satellites in space; in September 2008, it launched the BX-1 satellite, deployed through the Shenzou-7 spacecraft. Later the BX-1 satellite and the Shenzou-7 performed a fly-by of the International Space Station (ISS). Furthermore, it was reported that the test proved that the Chinese military can threaten the imaging reconnaissance satellites operated by the U. S., Japan, Russia, Israel and Europe. This had prompted the United States to launch its first National Space Policy after a hiatus of ten years, and now the launching of the first ever space drone, X-37b. Space is the final frontier for whoever wants to dominate the land, sea and air on earth.

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