The Judicial Commission on the memo scandal in Pakistan has submitted its report to the Supreme Court. The report states that the former ambassador had authored the controversial memo to Admiral Mike Mullen. The court also ordered Husain Haqqani to be present in the next hearing.

The report claimed that the motive of the memo was to present Pakistan’s civilian government as Pro-US and that only it can put breaks on the nations expanding nuclear program. Moreover, Haqqani desired to constitute a new security team, which he wanted to head. The report criticized Haqqani for being on the payroll of Pakistan while his loyalties were with the US.

The report was put forwarded on the same day black mailing allegations were personally made by business tycoon Malik Riaz against the son of Chief Justice, who is heading the memo commission.

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Pakistan’s Supreme Court has issued a contempt of court notice to Pakistan’s PM Yusuf Raza Gilani. Prime Minister Gilani was summoned to appear before the court on January 19, which he has obliged to do so.

The country’s attorney general, Maulvi Anwar-ul-Haq had earlier told a seven-member bench that he had not received any notice pertaining to the pursuit of corruption cases against President Zardari in the Swiss courts.

The leaders of Pakistan’s People Party (PPP) were granted blanket immunity over previous corruption charges under the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that was passed during Musharraf’s government. However, the Supreme Court later ruled NRO to be unconstitutional.

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This video clip evaluates how the civil-military and inter-institutional tensions are likely to play out in Pakistan, in the coming days and weeks. It also looks at how the political parties of Pakistan are positioning themselves during this crisis. 

Analysis

Basically, there are three scenarios emerging:

1. Early Elections
2. Installation of an Interim government that will hold elections at a later date
3. Replacement of the President or the Prime Minister

This assessment includes discussion with Dr. Mohammad Taqi, Political Analyst and Lead Columnist for Daily Times, Pakistan

The post The Future Of Civil Military and Inter-Institutional Tensions In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has garnered support from a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid (PML-Q) ‘Likeminded group’ for the 2013 elections. The dissident group split from the main PML-Q Likeminded and on Tuesday and announced its support for the PTI.

The PML-Q leaders are likely to meet PTI chief Imran Khan this week to finalize negotiations on the new alliance. The split in the PML-Q group came after several members expressed dissatisfaction with the decision of party leaders to side with PML-N. Several politicians including Mian Asif Chaudhry, Hamid Nasir Chattha, Nasrullah Dareeshak, Nisar Muhammad Khan, Sardar Taib, and Gohar Ayub Khan broke away to form an alliance with the PTI.

The post PML-Q Faction To Support PTI appeared first on Politact.

Context
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) was targeted for the second time in two days. In today’s attack, his convoy was travelling to attend a pubic meeting in Charsada when the attack took place. According to police, 12 people were killed and several wounded when a police vehicle was hit.

At least 10 people, including two police officials, were killed when a suicide attacker targeted the members of JUI-F on Wednesday near Swabi Interchange on the Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway. According to reports, the attack took place just seconds before the arrival of JUI’s Chief Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman at the interchange. Party sources said that the bomber wanted to target Fazal-ur-Rehman. Authorities believe that around eight kilograms of explosives were used in the bombing.

The post JUI Chief Escapes Suicide Bombing In Swabi and Charsadda appeared first on Politact.

Context
President Asif Ali Zardari addressed a joint session of the parliament on Tuesday. During his speech, the president praised the parliament for passing the eighteenth and nineteenth amendments. He also praised the parliament for expanding the tax net and reducing the size of the cabinet. The president said that the government condemns the killings of Shahbaz Bhatti and Salaman Taseer and vowed to defeat the mindset responsible for such actions. He pledged to uphold the supremacy of the parliament and the constitution and not allow anybody to usurp the powers of the parliament. Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q), and Jamiate-e-Ulema Islam-F (JUI-F) boycotted the session. President Zardari stressed upon the institutions of the country to work with in their constitutional jurisdiction. Furthermore, he vowed to continue the fight against extremism with full vigor.

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Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan has revealed that his party will consider reconciliation with PML-N, if Nawaz Sharif agrees to declare his “real” assets. Khan told reporters his party had “formulated a cell to collect information on PML-N’s assets and when we are ready, we will go to the Supreme Court and the Election Commission.”

He also demanded that the ruling party PPP as well as all other parties declare their assets so that corruption could be rooted out of Pakistan. The leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan lashed out against the former cricketer; ““We are ready to combat your bowling, but no ball tampering will be allowed.” Nisar also ridiculed the MQM rally on Sunday calling it less a political, and more a rent a car rally. The PTI organized out a massive rally on Sunday in Lahore.

The post PTI To Consider Reconciliation With PML-N If Nawaz Declares Assets appeared first on Politact.

Context
Ethnic and sectarian violence is not new to the port city of Karachi. Over the last week, more than 100 people have been killed in various incidents of indiscriminate firing by unknown assassins, and in pitched gun battles between unidentified rivals. Since the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) came to power, these bouts of violence in Karachi recur when the PPP led coalition government, in Islamabad, finds itself in trouble. This article examines the various causes of unrest in Karachi, Pakistan.

Analysis

There are several explanations for the killings and chaos in Karachi:

• The Pashtoon dominated Awami National Party (ANP) or ethnic factions with affinity towards it, are involved.
• The Urdu speaking Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is the cause.
• Foreign enemies of Pakistan are attempting to destabilize the commercial centre of Pakistan by insinuating ethnic and sectarian carnage.
• To shift the focus from its poor record of governance, PPP often uses the Sindh nationalist sentiments against MQM and other parties.
• Al Qaeda linked extremists want to accelerate chaos in Karachi and all through Pakistan.
• The gangs linked to the underworld (Lyari Gang) and mafia are causing this disorder.
• In the past, Pakistan’s Intelligence agencies have also been on the receiving end of the blame.

Political Implications

Without clear identification of the causes of unrest in Karachi, the remedies are short lived. ANP and MQM are the two most anti-extremist parties, however, due to their deep ethnic orientations, they have had strong enmity for each other. This leads to an unending process of accusations that MQM and ANP hurl at each other for causing violence in Karachi.

One prominent member of PPP who has since been reprimanded by the party leadership, and ANP party, have demanded to hand over the city of 18 million people to Pakistan Army to control the situation. However the party that recently requested the generals to take over the helms of the government and the anticipated revolution, MQM, is strictly against any such action involving its home turf. Apparently, the message was meant for the feudal from Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Baluchistan.

Due to differences with PPP and ANP, MQM is considering quitting Pakistani coalition government. However, the chances of this occurring  are minimal at this point. Judging from past behavior, MQM will only switch sides as the chances of the PPP government collapsing becomes a real possibility.

If the MQM quits government, the PPP-led coalition, would lose majority (without 25 members of MQM) in Pakistan National Assembly. In the 342-member National Assembly of Pakistan 171 members are required to attain majority. The PPP without MQM support would find itself four members short of this figure. This would shift the balance in favor of Pakistan Muslim Leaque-N.

Violence as part of Extremist Strategy

Some experts claim that the violence in Karachi is directly linked to Taliban and Al Qaeda strategy to destabilize Pakistan by creating ethnic tension. MQM party represents the Urdu-speaking community, whose ancestors migrated from India to Pakistan at the time of partition, in 1947. On the other hand, ANP is a Pashtoon nationalist party and heads the government in KP, the province most adversely affected by terrorism and Taliban insurgency.

Some independent sources and observers are of the view that Pakistani Taliban (TTP), in association with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, are responsible for triggering violence. One of their reasons is to pitch their staunch opponents against one another. NATO pressure in Afghanistan, drone attacks in FATA, plus Pakistan’s military operations, have caused Karachi to become one of the primary retreating sanctuaries for various forms of extremists. The extremists also want to control Karachi, so as to disrupt NATO supplies, majority of which originate from the two ports of the city.

Conclusion

There appears to be two principal and parallel strings of causes for violence and instability in Karachi:

• One of these is linked to the party politics and its connection to the underworld. This pattern results in incidences such as the one that occurred in Shershah Kabari Bazaar, with the death of 12 innocent people and numerous other targeted killings.
• The other thread is associated with the extremists and could also have foreign origins. The events tied to this pattern are illustrated by the attack on Abdullah Shah Ghazi Shrine on October 8, which left about 8 people dead. The assassination of religious leaders and scholars, Deobandi and Barelvi tussles, including the Sunni-Shia violence, are associated with this stream.

There could be a slight overlap between the two strings of causation listed above, but for the most part, they seem to be mutually exclusive. Both streams depend on the ethnic and sectarian divides of Karachi for their benefit.

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The post The Causes of Violence in Karachi, Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Context
The spokesman for former president Pervez Musharraf has announced he intends to launch a new political party, All Pakistan Muslim League, on October 1st. The declaration has created a political frenzy in Pakistan. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of Altaf Hussain’s invitation to patriotic generals to assist in bringing about a revolution, Musharraf’s plan represents another attempt to fill the present lack of leadership and governance in the country. This analysis examines the implications of Musharraf’s reentry on the political scene of Pakistan albeit as a civilian leader.

Analysis

As a tradition, people of Pakistan tend to assess its former leaders more highly than the existing ones. Following this rule, many pundits in the country have made comparisons of Musharraf era to the current PPP led coalition government. No doubt, during Musharraf’s tenure the economic condition of the country was much better, and the law and order situation took a turn for the worse only after the Red Mosque operation in July 2007. Sizeable foreign investments were made in the country, and at one point, Pakistan’s stock market was rated most promising in the world. Generally, the economic growth in Pakistan has been speedier during army rule as compared to civilian leadership.

Support for Musharraf’s new party is likely to come from previous coalition partners such as Muslim League-Q, Muttahida Quami Movement and other religious parties. However, Musharraf carries with him serious political baggage related to his controversial actions against the Supreme Court, death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, and assassination of Benazir Bhutto. It should also be noted that Musharraf first came to power after removing a constitutionally elected government of Nawaz Sharif, and it was only after 9/11 that he was able to muster international credibility. He was a close and vocal ally of United States in the war against terror, which won him many enemies.

Musharraf’s new party will in all likelihood rearrange the politics of Muslim League-N and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. If Muslim League-Q related splinter factions such as ‘Hum Khayal’ group do join up with Musharraf, the politics of Muslim League-N will be affected. Musharraf’s popularity overseas continues to be one of his assets, which could potentially compete with Imran Khan’s constituents abroad. Meanwhile, Pakistan Peoples Party could come out to be one of the beneficiaries of these new dynamics. The focus of the Supreme Court could shift from matters related to NRO and move towards unconstitutional steps undertaken by Musharraf during his rule. Having just revitalized its public image, the Pakistan military is unlikely to tread near its former chief.

When it comes to the policies of the new Musharraf party, it would be interesting to observe the party stance on fighting extremism, particularly when the momentum for peace talks and political solution is increasing on the Afghan side but the emphasis for military action remains the focus when it comes to Pakistan.

President Musharraf’s foreign allies are unlikely to pledge their support behind him once again. The PPP led coalition government although performing poorly on the domestic front is cooperating fully as it relates to the war against terror. Furthermore, General Kiyani has adopted a much more conciliatory approach towards Afghanistan and Karzai as oppose to tensions that were a hallmark of Musharraf’s term. Additionally, according to media reports, General Kiyani may have also quietly allowed foreign troops on the ground, a move vehemently opposed by Musharraf.

It also remains to be seen if Musharraf would return to Pakistan. Altaf Hussain provides ample precedence that parties can be run from overseas. Moreover, both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had also continued to conduct politics from overseas during Musharraf period.

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