Saudi-Israel Normalization and Beyond

Context

In a previous article we focused on understanding the changing geopolitics of the Middle East. Especially, the political, security, and economic interconnections between South Asia and the Gulf States, and one of the subsets, Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This relationship has taken on added significance in the context of ongoing great power rivalry and China’s wider engagement with the Middle East, which resulted in the Saudi-Iran détente in March.

On July 28, 2020, PoliTact held a webinar to discuss the potential China-Iran $400 billion economic deal and its impact on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China-Iran defense cooperation has been growing in the aftermath of President Trump’s decision in 2018 to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal reached in 2015 – which was a hallmark achievement of the Obama administration.

Moreover, additional Muslim states, such as UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco officially recognizing the state of Israel as a consequence of Abraham Accords, reached during the Trump’s presidency in 2020.These developments resulted in deepening of the contradictory pressures for Pakistan. On the one hand, the nation is China’s closest strategic partner, which was also expanding its ties with Iran. On the other hand, Pakistan’s other Arab allies, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar were moving closer to Israel.

In an event held on May 22 in collaboration with the Middle East Institute, the growing role of China in the Middle East was examined. The panelists had made the policy recommendations that US should not completely disengage or overreact to Chinese influence in a state of anxiety. Instead, the US should adopt a clearer approach to its political, economic, and security interests in the Middle East. Viewing US relations with its partners in the Middle East and Asia within the framework of great power competition with China may negatively impact the US approach and its interests.

Saudi-Israel Normalization

Progressively alarmed by the fast-moving dynamics of the Middle East and growing Chinese involvement has meant that the US administration could not sit idly. President Biden has launched an aggressive diplomatic engagement with Saudi Arabia, the country being seen as acting ever more unpredictably. At the same time, the changing politics of Israel is also a complicating factor as Netanyahu loses interest with the two-state solution.

According to New York Times, in at least two trips taken in the last couple of months by the national security adviser Jack Sullivan, Saudis have demanded a civil nuclear program in which they could enrich their own Uranium, not like UAE where they are shipped enriched material. In addition, they want a NATO style mutual security agreement in return for recognition of Israel. On the other hand, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has proposed to Saudi Arabia building a nuclear plant near its borders with Qatar and UAE. The move is to pressure the US to be more flexible in aiding its nuclear program.

According to a White House statement, Sullivan traveled to Jeddah:

“to discuss bilateral and regional matters, including initiatives to advance a common vision for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region interconnected with the world.”

The gist of the Biden administrations diplomatic blitzkrieg is to keep Saudi’s from moving closer to China or Russia, build its ties with Israel, and coordinate against Iran. In the BRICS conference held in Johannesburg, Saudi Arabia and Iran were both invited to join BRICS. UAE and Egypt are also set to become BRICS members from January 2024.

Wider Implications

The normalization of Saudi ties with Israel would be the extension of the Abraham Accord. The recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia would be a titanic event in the Islamic world – especially as it relates to the Core versus the Peripheral Islamic world. It would bring tremendous pressure on the peripheral Islamic nations, especially Pakistan which takes clues from Saudi Arabia when it comes to the maters of Palestinians. According to the polls conducted by the Washington Institute in 2022, public opinion in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain that were initially favorable towards Abraham Accords have become less so ever since.

If a such a transformation is indeed achieved, a lot will depend on the scope of concessions provided to the Palestinians as part of the deal. Will it include a statehood for the Palestinians and cessation of settlements? With the right-wing government in Israel, why would it agree to any of such demands, especially when the outside-in approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has largely proven to be successful.

While most of the GCC nations are autocratic – a broken democracy still exists in Pakistan. Irrespective, under the present circumstances, Saudi recognition of Israel anytime soon, will gravely unsettle the political and security situation of the country, particularly if it were to be accompanied by economic and political pressure from Saudi Arabia, and other GCC nations, to follow suit. As for the timeline, President Biden would want an agreement before the US elections next year.

Pakistan is overwhelmed by domestic affairs presently, there is little bandwidth for a public debate on this fast-moving situation of the Middle East. Pakistan’s traditional position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was reiterated by its former Prime Minister Imran Khan presently in incarceration:

“Whatever any country does, our position is very clear. And our position was made clear by [Pakistan’s founder] Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah … in 1948: that we cannot ever accept Israel as long as Palestinians are not given their rights and there is no just settlement.”

Moreover, such a transformational step will also have a direct effect on the narrative of extremist organizations such as AQ, Daesh and their Associates. After all, the Palestinian predicament was one of the primary motivation behind why founders of these groups lobbied for violent means to achieve justice.

These extremist organizations targeted governments of the Islamic nations because they were believed to be complicit with the West, and with their support Israel was committing atrocities against Palestinians. Thus, if the justice is delivered, and is seen as such, this could pose far reaching consequences for the future of Islamic extremists – and for the relations of the Islamic world with Israel and the West.

It could also convince those groups that are active on the Kashmir front, that the rise of China could force peaceful resolution of long-standing conflicts – seen to be the unfinished business from when the balance of power shifted last. However, if the deal if reached without much public support or debate and is perceived as a sell off, it would pose tremendous risks for the future of normal governance in the Islamic regions.

This is what happened in the case of Libya recently, when its foreign minister Najla Mangoush met secretly with Israeli counterpart in Rome to normalize ties. The news of the meeting was made public by Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen and ignited strong street protests in Libya. This caused Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah to suspend Mangoush claiming that she has acted individually and Libya feels strongly for the Palestinian cause.

The post Will The Fear Of China Aid Middle East Peace? appeared first on Politact.

At least three people including a police officer were injured on Thursday in the Shiite region of Qatif as unrest in Saudi Arabia escalated. Security personnel opened fire on protestors who had taken to the streets in demand for the release of political prisoners. Riyadh has increased its measures to bolster security in the country to prevent an Arab uprising in Saudi Arabia. Demonstrations and expressions of dissent are banned by the government, which claims they contradict Islamic laws. The Shiite community which forms nearly 10 percent of the population in the Kingdom is often at loggerheads with the authorities claiming they are marginalized in government jobs and positions.

Saudi unrest has also affected world markets. Oil prices which had dropped to below $101 a barrel rebounded on Thursday after the events to nearly $104.

The post Saudi Unrest Escalates appeared first on Politact.

After cuts in support from the United States, Pakistan is looking towards Saudi Arabia and the UAE for assistance for development projects and repatriation of internally displaced people (IDP). The government is estimated to have spent Rs 45billion to help people affected in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunwa, of which Rs 10 billion was provided by Saudi Arabia to assist refugees to return to Kurram by August 25. The partnership is a sign of improving relations between the two countries which deteriorated over strengthening Pakistan-Iran ties. According to sources, $100 million is expected to be received from Saudi Arabia and UAE as part of efforts to develop the region.

The post Pakistan Tilting To Saudi Arabia, UAE For Assistance In Tribal Areas appeared first on Politact.

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani left for a two day trip to Saudi Arabia on Sunday.
He is also due to hold meeting with King Abdullah bin Abdullah Aziz during his stay. Some of the matters Gillani is expected to discuss with the Saudi leaders include oil facility, improving bilateral trade relations and issues pertaining to the Pakistani citizens residing in Saudi Arabia. The trip comes after President Zardari’s visit to the Kingdom to ease tensions between Tehran and Riyadh.

The post Gillani Visits Saudi Arabia appeared first on Politact.

Context
The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) has ceased its initiative to put an end to the Yemeni political crisis after President Saleh declined to sign a transition peace deal that would’ve seen him stand down. A statement issued by the GCC on Sunday said that it decided to halt the efforts due to a failure to accept suitable conditions. Saleh was present at a signing ceremony, wherein the transition agreement was endorsed by the officials of his ruling party, but refused to sign the agreement, saying he wouldn’t add his signature to the papers unless the opposition leaders are present. Foreign envoys who had gathered in the Yemeni capital Sanaa for the ceremony have reportedly left the country.

This development would be troubling for the Saudi’s who would want to contain the troubles in Yemen. If the unrest continues in Yemen, it has the probability of engulfing the Kingdom eventually. Yemen has the prospect of becoming a FATA for the Saudi’s if not dealt with in a timely fashion.

The post Yemen Transition Peace Plan Collapses appeared first on Politact.

Context
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on Sunday agreed to get over their differences and take their ties to a much advanced level. In a meeting in Riyadh between Saudi Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Doctor Nizar bin Obaid Madani and his Pakistani counterpart Hina Rabbani Khar, it was agreed that effective measures should be taken to overcome the impression that a “chill” existed in relations between the two nations.
According to media reports, the two officials reviewed international and regional issues of mutual interest and discussed ways of improving ties. Diplomatic circles believe that an impression in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations that Iran is trying to interfere in the internal matters of the Arab World must also have been discussed. Saudi Arabia is believed to have asked Pakistan to use its good offices with Iran, to influence to put a stop to Iran’s interference. On the other hand, Saudi’s have assured Pakistan that its interests in Afghanistan would be safeguarded.

The director-general of the Export Programme of the Saudi Fund for Development, Ahmed Al-Ghannam, acting deputy of the Ministry of Economic Affairs Dr Sulaiman Al-Turki, Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Abdul Aziz Al- Ghadeer attended the meeting.

On the other hand, Commander Royal Saudi Naval Forces Vice Admiral Dakheel Allah Bin Ahmed Al Waqdani,

called on Chief of the Naval Staff at his office and held detailed discussion on professional matters. He also held discussions with other senior political and military leadership of Pakistan. Vice Admiral Al Waqdani is a graduate of Pakistan Naval Academy and received his commission in 1969

The post Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Agree To Improve Ties appeared first on Politact.

Context
Following a rebuff from King Abdullah last month, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates met him in private on Wednesday to try and mend strained ties between the US and Saudi Arabia. Mr. Gates described his one-on-one meeting with the Saudi monarch as “extremely cordial”, but said that he didn’t raise with the ruler one of the most controversial issues dividing the two countries: Saudi Arabia’s decision to disregard President Obama and send forces into Bahrain to crush a revolt last month. Ties between the US and Saudi Arabia are at an all-time low since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. The two countries are at odds not only because of Saudi intervention in Bahrain but also because of President Obama’s support for protestors in Egypt rather than President Hosni Mubarak. After Mubarak’s ouster, Saudi Arabia cancelled trips to Riyadh by Gates and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, saying that the king wasn’t well.

The post US Defense Chief Visits Saudi Arabia to Mend Ties appeared first on Politact.

Context
Secretary General National Security Council of Saudi Arabia, Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, met President Asif Ali Zardari in Islamabad on Friday. Pak-Saudi relations were reportedly discussed, including recent desecration of the Holy Quran in Florida. Prince Bandar has previously served as Saudi Ambassador to the US and has close ties to the Bush family.

The post Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Meets President Zardari appeared first on Politact.

Context
PoliTact has been pointing out to the decisive shift in the Middle East balance of power since the Gaza aid flotilla incident in May 2010. After Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak was the second causality to shock the region, and now Libya and many other autocrats of the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, fear a similar fate. This article examines the premises of the evolving American and Israeli policy, with potential implications and scenarios for the AfPak region, as the face of Middle East changes.

According to statements emanating from US officials and media analysis, PoliTact has been able to discern the following goals:

• To manage the transformation in Middle East
• Prevent Al Qaeda and Islamist to exploit the situation
• Avoid the disruption of oil supplies
• Preventing Iran from extending its influence
• Observing the reaction of China and Russia to changes in the region
• Using Saudi vulnerabilities to divide Taliban in AfPak and obtain support of Pakistan

The Shape of American Policy

From the American perspective, and keeping aside the causes of unrest in Middle East, the change underway in the region represents an opportunity. Additionally, the autocratic rulers of Middle East have outlived their usefulness, as has been demonstrated recently by the collapse of Middle East Peace Process. Most of the aging and ailing leaders of the region have been mired in succession issues and have generally paid scant attention towards the welfare of its people. However, the stakes for US in oil rich and non-oil producing countries are starkly different.

Additionally, the recent events in the region have pointed towards the rise of Iran and Turkey in the politics of Middle East. The three pillars of American security apparatus in the area; Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, have increasingly looked meek. Their deceasing clout made them less reliable when dealing with difficult issues such as the future of Palestine and Afghanistan.
At the same time, the tradtional role of US in keeping these governments afloat has negatively impacted its image in the world. A fresh look at the politics of the region was much needed, and these revolts have presented such an opportunity. Therefore, US has selectively supported people of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. However, this is a delicate balancing act. If it appears that long-time rulers would be able to handle the uprisings, the American approach is likely to be less aggressive. The emphasis is on avoiding the conditions to move towards anarchy, and prevent adversaries to exploit the void if these governments suddenly collapse. Thus the US military-to-miliatry relations with these countries have taken on added emhpasis.
One overriding reason to avoid a major upheaval is to protect the oil supplies that originate in Middle East. The disruption of the energy supplies can profoundly affect not only the US economy, but also that of the other global players, such as China and Russia. As the crisis widens, the concerns of BRIC nations are also increasing. Furthermore, the rising oil prices can speed up the worsening economic situation of key allies against the war on terror, like Pakistan.
Geopolitics of Middle East and AfPak

The geopolitical implications of events in Middle East have already begun to impact China and its relations with Pakistan. As General Kiyani met with senior American military officials in Oman on February 23rd, chairman of Pakistan’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Khalid Shamim Wynne, was holding talks with Chinese People’s Liberation Army chief General Chen Bingde. These talks have taken place in the aftermath of Raymond Davis incident and the stress created by it on US-Pakistan relations.

In Pakistan-Chinese defense talks, the two sides agreed to further strengthened their strategic dialogue and cooperation. The process of defense and security talks was initiated in 2002. It was also announced that the two countries would be holding joint army and air force exercises, besides participating in multinational naval drills in March.

No word has yet come out from Pakistan-American military-to-military talks. However, one can be certain that in addition to the AfPak region and Raymond Davis issue, the situation in Middle East would have come up for discussion. However, the US-Pakistan strategic partnership appears to be stagnating and the vision of both countries on the future of Afghanistan, remains divergent.

In the face of continued NATO and US ambiguity about the end game in Afghanistan, particulalry related to the interests of Pakistan, the country seems to be going ahead with its own version. This was reflected by the peace agreement reached in Kurram Agency this month, with support of the Haqqanis. Despite the American pressure, Pakistan does not appear to be letting go of Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. If media reports around the mission of Raymond Davis and the recovery of the kind of sensitive documents from him are true, then the very premise of US pressure on Pakistan for operations in FATA seems to have fallen apart.
Israeli Threat Perception

The most influential determinant of the shape of future Middle East would be the threat perception of Israel. The country at a minimum would like:

• Peace treaty between Egypt and Israel to hold.
• Prevent any alliance to develop in the region that can threaten Israeli security.
• In addition to other tactics and strategies, use the Shia-Sunni tussles to contain Iran and other Sunni countries.

An intriguing scenario that can play out is connected to the situation in Saudi Arabia, and the Shia-Sunni tussles of the Islamic world. The scenario can play out with the folllowing developments:

• After Bahrain, the situation in Saudi Arabia also begins to deteriorate.
• Furthermore, Al Qaeda seeing an opportunity starts to make matter worse on the Saudi Yemen border.
• As public unrest spreads to the Shia population of Saudi Arabia, it calls for help from Pakistan Army.

Pakistan Army has in the past assisted a number of Arab countries in the Middle East:

• In 1969, training personnel from Pakistan armed forces helped beat back attack from South Yemen on Sharoora province of Saudi Arabia. South Yemen at the time was under a communist regime, strongly supported by USSR.
• During the Six Day War (1967) and Yom Kippur War (1973), pilots from Pakistan’s air force were involved in helping Jordan, Syria, and Egypt in conflict with Israel. Military advisers and trainers were also helping the armed forces of these countries.
• King Hussein of Jordan used Pakistan’s training mission under Brigadier Zia-ul-Haq to suppress the Palestinian uprising in the 70s.
• More recently, during the Gulf War of 1990, Pakistani forces were deployed along the Saudi-Yemen border, as coalition forces expelling Iraqi forces from Kuwait.
• In 2006, President Musharraf sent a contingent of Army personnel to Lebanon for demining areas bombed by Israel.

Such a request would put Pakistan in a daunting bind: to support either the royal family or the wishes of the people. The circumstances currently existing on Pakistan’s eastern and western flank would make the prospect of assisting other nations of the Gulf region unlikely. However, the involvement of India to further weaken Pakistan and the potential of NATO’s engagement in Middle East as a stabilizing force, is likely to push China in to action. If China decides to step in, then we could enter the realm of a truly global conflict.

The post The Evolving Middle East – Emerging Geopolitics of Middle East and AfPak appeared first on Politact.

Context
The passing away of Special Representative Richard Holbrooke would be strongly felt in Pakistan and US. The government’s attempt to introduce IMF mandated Reformed General Sales Taxes (RGST) has run into major opposition. In the post flood environment, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led coalition government was already under considerable stress and now one of its coalition partners Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), decided to part ways. This article looks at the developing political scenario in Pakistan.

Analysis

A variety of factors are piling the pressure on the PPP led government and foremost among these are the accusations related to corruption. Negative reputations are hard to reverse and PPP government has had a rough ride from the beginning, to improve the image of its party chief and president of the country. This perception has plagued almost every initiative the government has been involved in, be it dealing with Kerry-Lugar aid package, IMF support, or in handling flood relief and rehabilitation. Moreover, the PPP leadership has not made any serious effort to deal with the credibility issue. The party has instead adopted a confrontational approach, and in this its conduct is no different from past governments under similar circumstances.
Governor of Punjab Salman Taseer, Interior Minister for Sind province Zulfiqar Mirza, and Federal Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan, perform most of the party brinkmanship. These individuals consistently serve to alienate Pakistan Muslim League-N in Punjab and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Sind. On the other hand, Federal Minister for Interior Rehman Malik operates as an emissary for the President and the Prime Minister, and to play the conciliators role. To maintain the coalition, PPP needs to play each party against the other, and this it would seem, is politics at its best.

The dynamics of the above theatrics are directly linked to the vulnerabilities of the present political set up and political parties. In recent years, economic stresses, extremism, foreign influences, and military interventions, are causing the leading political parties of Pakistan to loose their national character, and become more local. Pakistan is a country deeply divided along ethnic, economic and social lines, and, as a consequence, a coalition of political parties is often required in forming a government. These alliances become outdated quickly as they fail to keep pace with rapid change in the local and international environment, and spend most of their efforts shift to survival.

However, when parties begin to embrace the use of race and ethnicity as a tactic, it represents an unusually perilous political strategy. Such methods are typically employed when politicians feel desperate and to demonstrate their power base. The message is particularly intended for the Army, whose support is considered essential in bringing about political change in Pakistan. If political parties use ethnic divides to maintain a hold on power, the military has traditionally used religion to counterbalance the divisiveness and partisanship.

JUI-F is the second party since Muslim League-N earlier quit the coalition at the federal level. Now MQM has threatened to leave the PPP coalition if remedial actions are not taken soon. The parting of JUI-F, and keeping the numbers game aside, has significantly weakened the PPP government and its ability to govern and execute policies. This is occurring at a time when the party needed to muster its strength in order to get Reformed General Sales Tax to pass the National Assembly.
Furthermore, in the complete absence of representation from religious parties, PPP government would face additional credibility challenges and in implementing its policies related to the war on terror. These outcomes are also likely to impact Pakistan relations with its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.

Facing these circumstances, and as alluded to above, the focus of the government would dramatically shift from governance to survival. Examining the role of previous rulers facing similar dire circumstances reveals that as oppose to course correction, they usually took more missteps and suicidal actions. These leaders failed to make a distinction between national and self-interest, and to check their negative cultural and emotional tendencies.

Keeping the situation in Afghanistan, FATA, India, and Iran in view, and the divisive politics of the present government in mind, the timing appears ripe for a coalition of religious parties to emerge once again. The US would dearly miss a diplomat of Holbrooke’s stature to make sense of the volatile Pakistani politics and to temper it, at this sensitive stage of the Afghan conflict. Especially, when US seem to have concluded that without Pakistan’s support, Afghan situation cannot improve.

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