By Arif Ansar

Context

Since the removal of Imran Khan’s government in April 2022 through a no confidence vote, Pakistan’s interim government finally held the election of the 16th National Parliament on February 8^th. This was significantly past the constitutional requirement to conduct balloting three months after the government had been dissolved. According to one estimate, nearly 60 million voters participated to elect 266 representatives for the National Parliament and 749 representatives for the four provincial assemblies.

However, the election results are widely seen to be rigged, raising doubts about the legitimacy of the whole process. This has further exacerbated political polarization, as the events before and after the elections appear to be particularly designed for keeping Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) out of power. The circumstances align well with what is informally known as the London Plan.

The controversial nature of Pakistan’s recent elections has also raised international concerns, particularly from the US, UK, and European Union, prompting calls for investigations into reported irregularities. In the US alone, bipartisan lawmakers, including Democrats and Republicans, have urged President Joe Biden not to recognize Pakistan’s election results until allegations of irregularities are thoroughly investigated.

Though Pakistan’s government has defended the conduct of elections as fair and free and downplayed the concerns of the international community.

The Evolving Political Landscape

PTI

According to reports, the PTI-backed independents secured 93 seats. However, PTI claims victory in over 180 seats, alleging that the total vote counts were tampered with by the Election Commission. This has prevented it from attaining a simple majority and forming the government. Challenging the elections results, PTI has resorted to legal action against the alleged rigging, flooding Pakistan’s courts with petitions seeking judicial intervention as a last resort.

As political maneuvering intensifies in the quest for power, army chief Gen. Munir has urged politicians to form a unified government, stressing that the nation needs “stable hands and a healing touch to move on from the politics of anarchy and polarization.” In response to the army chief’s remarks, PTI leadership has emphasized the release of political prisoners, including Imran Khan, and the acceptance of its mandate to rule as crucial steps towards national reconciliation.

PTI leader Imran Khan has signaled a willingness to mend relations with the military establishment, asserting no ill-will towards any party while cautioning against allowing Nawaz Sharif to lead another coalition government. He has announced plans to form governments in the provinces of KPK and Punjab, as well as at the federal level, having secured a lead in the elections.

PML-N and PPP

In contrast, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), with 75 and 54 seats respectively, has chosen to accept the election results. Despite engaging in heated exchanges and running vengeful political campaigns against each other, both agree on the urgent need to move on, claiming that reconciliation is necessary to address the current political instability.

After much political wrangling and theatrics, PML-N and PPP announced forming a united coalition government on February 20, akin to their earlier Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) alliance government. However, their reluctance to compromise on key political demands has complicated the durability of such an alliance. Moreover, it’s not clear how they can formulate the government while the results of so many seats are controversial.

Future Government

According to the results that are known, not a single political party secured the simple majority of 169 seats required to form a government, making the formation of a coalition government inevitable.

Much depends on the actions of the PTI-backed independents. The process of wooing independents by the PML-N and PPP is underway, with at least four already expressing interest in joining these parties. The challenge for the PTI is twofold: to reclaim its lost mandate and to safeguard its candidates from shifting allegiances.

Should the PML-N form the government, as it did on February 20, the PTI has threatened to initiate country-wide agitation, sparking fears of a recurrence of the riots witnessed on May 9th last year. At the same time, PTI also appear to be settling in to take on the strong opposition role. Meanwhile, PTI has announced Alliance with Islamic Parties such as Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) and Muslim Wahdate-i-Muslimeen (MWM).

Dealing with Challenges

As PML-N and PPP announced an agreement to form the government – with Shahbaz Sharif nominated for the Prime Minister and Asif Ali Zardari for the President, it’s not clear how they plan to address the formidable economic, security, and political challenges. Pakistan will soon have to approach the IMF to enter in to a new program and manage the $25-$30 billion in annual external debt, which will require making a number of unpopular decisions. One thing is clear, without political stability there can be little headway on the economic front. Dismal economic prospects are sure to further polarize society, escalating ethnic fissures and finger pointing.

None of the political parties have provided a clear roadmap on how they will tackle the serious foreign policy issues. The nation is entangled in an acute great power rivalry in which China and Russia stand as strategic partners at one end of the pole, while US, Europe and India occupy the other pole. In this, the Gulf nation, which are the major financial backers of the last resort for Pakistan, are also swaying between the Great Powers.

Two of Pakistan’s neighbors Iran and archenemy India are not only involved in the Middle East but are players in the regional proxy war, which involves Afghanistan. This led to the recent unprecedented tit for tat strikes Iran and Pakistan launched at each other. This dynamics could easily pull in Pakistan to the intricate non-state actors playhouse of the Middle East.

The October 7 Hamas attack and the subsequent Israeli operation in Gaza has further complicated the international environment. Israeli offensive has brought larger scale human loss with close to 30,000 Palestinians dead, and destruction of Gaza. Any future ceasefire will be accompanied by rebuilding phase – likely to be led by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. On the other hand, the Ukraine conflict has consumed quite a bit of the European and American financial bandwidth – and this will have a direct impact on what kind of attention and assistance may be available for others.

As the election cycles heat up in the US, there are indications that what transpired in Pakistan could become a hot topic between the Democrats and Republicans, further eroding credence for the local set-up there.

Policy Implications

The domestic turmoil in Pakistan is directly connected to the great power rivalry presently playing out. The election results indicate the gradual shift in the societal balance in Pakistan towards the nationalist and conservative forces. As noted by PoliTact in 2014, the organic political alliance that would emerge from the changing ecosystem is between the nationalists and the conservatives of different colors – an outcome not seen favorably in the West.

Ironically, the campaign against extremism has played a significant role in altering the traditional societal balance. It resulted in the shrinking space for the liberals in the Islamic world, and the steady rise of the nationalists and conservatives. The nationalists and conservatives have become increasingly vocal on the supremacy of state sovereignty and noninterference of external players in other countries, a cause championed by China and Russia as well.

This poses serious implications; Western allies cannot hold on to power long while being oblivious to the popular feelings and worsening economic prospects. Their interests, and those of the West, are served better by accommodating the change in the societal balance as opposed to holding on to what is archaic and the customary.

PoliTact’s South Asia Fellow Naad-e-Ali Sulehria contributed to this article.

The post Pakistan Post Election Crisis, Great Power Rivalry, and Societal Imbalance appeared first on Politact.

Context
The passing away of Special Representative Richard Holbrooke would be strongly felt in Pakistan and US. The government’s attempt to introduce IMF mandated Reformed General Sales Taxes (RGST) has run into major opposition. In the post flood environment, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led coalition government was already under considerable stress and now one of its coalition partners Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), decided to part ways. This article looks at the developing political scenario in Pakistan.

Analysis

A variety of factors are piling the pressure on the PPP led government and foremost among these are the accusations related to corruption. Negative reputations are hard to reverse and PPP government has had a rough ride from the beginning, to improve the image of its party chief and president of the country. This perception has plagued almost every initiative the government has been involved in, be it dealing with Kerry-Lugar aid package, IMF support, or in handling flood relief and rehabilitation. Moreover, the PPP leadership has not made any serious effort to deal with the credibility issue. The party has instead adopted a confrontational approach, and in this its conduct is no different from past governments under similar circumstances.
Governor of Punjab Salman Taseer, Interior Minister for Sind province Zulfiqar Mirza, and Federal Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan, perform most of the party brinkmanship. These individuals consistently serve to alienate Pakistan Muslim League-N in Punjab and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Sind. On the other hand, Federal Minister for Interior Rehman Malik operates as an emissary for the President and the Prime Minister, and to play the conciliators role. To maintain the coalition, PPP needs to play each party against the other, and this it would seem, is politics at its best.

The dynamics of the above theatrics are directly linked to the vulnerabilities of the present political set up and political parties. In recent years, economic stresses, extremism, foreign influences, and military interventions, are causing the leading political parties of Pakistan to loose their national character, and become more local. Pakistan is a country deeply divided along ethnic, economic and social lines, and, as a consequence, a coalition of political parties is often required in forming a government. These alliances become outdated quickly as they fail to keep pace with rapid change in the local and international environment, and spend most of their efforts shift to survival.

However, when parties begin to embrace the use of race and ethnicity as a tactic, it represents an unusually perilous political strategy. Such methods are typically employed when politicians feel desperate and to demonstrate their power base. The message is particularly intended for the Army, whose support is considered essential in bringing about political change in Pakistan. If political parties use ethnic divides to maintain a hold on power, the military has traditionally used religion to counterbalance the divisiveness and partisanship.

JUI-F is the second party since Muslim League-N earlier quit the coalition at the federal level. Now MQM has threatened to leave the PPP coalition if remedial actions are not taken soon. The parting of JUI-F, and keeping the numbers game aside, has significantly weakened the PPP government and its ability to govern and execute policies. This is occurring at a time when the party needed to muster its strength in order to get Reformed General Sales Tax to pass the National Assembly.
Furthermore, in the complete absence of representation from religious parties, PPP government would face additional credibility challenges and in implementing its policies related to the war on terror. These outcomes are also likely to impact Pakistan relations with its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.

Facing these circumstances, and as alluded to above, the focus of the government would dramatically shift from governance to survival. Examining the role of previous rulers facing similar dire circumstances reveals that as oppose to course correction, they usually took more missteps and suicidal actions. These leaders failed to make a distinction between national and self-interest, and to check their negative cultural and emotional tendencies.

Keeping the situation in Afghanistan, FATA, India, and Iran in view, and the divisive politics of the present government in mind, the timing appears ripe for a coalition of religious parties to emerge once again. The US would dearly miss a diplomat of Holbrooke’s stature to make sense of the volatile Pakistani politics and to temper it, at this sensitive stage of the Afghan conflict. Especially, when US seem to have concluded that without Pakistan’s support, Afghan situation cannot improve.

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Context
The unprecedented floods in Pakistan have fundamentally altered the political landscape of the nation. In a country where progress is extremely slow even during normal situations, the political parties are finding themselves intellectually challenged in assessing the implications of the debilitating floods on their party politics and positions. The events are moving faster than they have ever operated and the PPP coalition government is increasingly clueless and the country leaderless. In this environment the responsibility for presenting any semblance of a functioning government is increasingly falling on the shoulders of Pakistan’s military, when it least desires it.

Analysis
 

From all accounts Pakistan’s democratic government appears to be heading towards a catastrophic failure. Overtime, a number of states institutions have become nonfunctional. Although several causes for the system failure can be debated such as rampant corruption and the role of army, nonetheless, the inability of government to function and deliver in the present crisis is compounding the consequences. Add to this the mounting public pressure for provision of flood relief and rehabilitation efforts and we have a potentially explosive situation.

The present political quagmire does not automatically mean that the army will attempt a coupe but rather the existing political set-up will likely relegate, as they already are out of necessity. The unfolding economic and humanitarian crisis appears to be beyond the capacity of the political setup to handle. However, the military will continue to act behind the scenes.

Pakistan army has recently regained its lost image and taking charge is perhaps the last thing the general’s want. Running a country whose economy has been severely crippled and is heavily dependent on foreign aid will become increasing complex, especially when the military also has to ensure the security of the country in a hostile geopolitical environment.

Recognizing that change is perhaps inevitable, the questions on the minds of intellectuals and media anchors relate to the shape of the new government and most importantly, how will it come into being. Will a mid-term election be required or a new interim set-up installed from the top, that some call a National government? Additionally, what would be the composition of this new administration?

In his assessment of the situation Altaf Hussain, a media savvy leader of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), last week called for a system change supported by the military. In addition, he also pleaded the destitute farmers whose lands and crops have been destroyed by the ravaging floods, to rise up against the feudal system. Some of the landlords stand accused of shifting the direction of the waters away from their properties, while as a consequence destroying the crops of helpless surrounding villages particularly in Sind province. However, PoliTact’s sources convey MQM’s main worry is the changing demographics of Karachi, as more Sindi’s are migrating from rural areas due to ineffective relief efforts.

The MQM leader came under harsh criticism from across the political spectrum to have called for an unconstitutional intrusion. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of the floods MQM is attempting to shape the political agenda of the country.  In a second TV interview, Altaf added to his position by talking about the highly polarizing issues of land reform and agriculture tax. These hot topics can damage the political base of Pakistan Mulsim Leaque-Nawaz and Pakistan Peoples Party. In addition, Altaf Hussain has also highlighted the critical role of Supreme Court in bringing about the change.

The mainstream religious parties of Pakistan such as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat UIema-e-Islam (JUI-F) have so far remained quiet. However, it is obvious that in addition to the army, their role and support in calming the approaching chaos will have to be instrumental. Although involvement of the religious parties will be discomforting for the United States, Afghanistan and India. A coalition of these religious parties was previously a part of Musharraf’s government and was responsible for peace deals that are now believed to have strengthened the extremists.

A political party that has remained untested and unable to convert its focus on social justice and welfare in to political capital is the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). The party favors a political approach to the war against extremism, which is widely interpreted as having a soft corner for religious extremists. The party chairman Imran Khan is considered to be an honest leader but routinely criticized for lacking political shrewdness.

In the emerging political landscape of Pakistan, PoliTact foresees a role for PTI in combination with the mainstream religious parties, including Pakistan Muslim League-N, with the backing of the military and involvement of the Supreme Court. It is possible that if Muslim League-N is unwilling to join such a set-up then PML-Q could be the other option. Alternatively, it is equally likely that a neutral government made up of technocrats be installed, a proposition also talked about by Altaf Hussain in his TV interview.

One way or the other the war against extremists will once again be a decisive variable. With the winds shifting in the Afghan war and more talk of political reconciliation with the Taliban, the American opposition is likely to be reduced for the above political setup as long as a differentiation is made between Al Qaeda affiliated groups and others that are willing to terminate their ties with AQ. The Afghan and Indian sentiment will also play a crucial role in the American determination.

However, in PoliTact’s assessment US will be able to address the Indian sensitivities by promoting its strategic partnership with the country further and as long as Pakistan can ensure the control of jihadi groups such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT). Moreover, the role of Saudi Arabia in Pakistan and Afghanistan is likely to resurge in the above laid out scenario, to the determent of Iran. The position of Saudi Arabia has emerged as essential in the emerging US strategy for the Milddle East and AfPak region, while that of Turkey has receded somewhat since the Flotilla incident.

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Context
Ethnic and sectarian violence is not new to the port city of Karachi. Over the last week, more than 100 people have been killed in various incidents of indiscriminate firing by unknown assassins, and in pitched gun battles between unidentified rivals. Since the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) came to power, these bouts of violence in Karachi recur when the PPP led coalition government, in Islamabad, finds itself in trouble. This article examines the various causes of unrest in Karachi, Pakistan.

Analysis

There are several explanations for the killings and chaos in Karachi:

• The Pashtoon dominated Awami National Party (ANP) or ethnic factions with affinity towards it, are involved.
• The Urdu speaking Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is the cause.
• Foreign enemies of Pakistan are attempting to destabilize the commercial centre of Pakistan by insinuating ethnic and sectarian carnage.
• To shift the focus from its poor record of governance, PPP often uses the Sindh nationalist sentiments against MQM and other parties.
• Al Qaeda linked extremists want to accelerate chaos in Karachi and all through Pakistan.
• The gangs linked to the underworld (Lyari Gang) and mafia are causing this disorder.
• In the past, Pakistan’s Intelligence agencies have also been on the receiving end of the blame.

Political Implications

Without clear identification of the causes of unrest in Karachi, the remedies are short lived. ANP and MQM are the two most anti-extremist parties, however, due to their deep ethnic orientations, they have had strong enmity for each other. This leads to an unending process of accusations that MQM and ANP hurl at each other for causing violence in Karachi.

One prominent member of PPP who has since been reprimanded by the party leadership, and ANP party, have demanded to hand over the city of 18 million people to Pakistan Army to control the situation. However the party that recently requested the generals to take over the helms of the government and the anticipated revolution, MQM, is strictly against any such action involving its home turf. Apparently, the message was meant for the feudal from Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Baluchistan.

Due to differences with PPP and ANP, MQM is considering quitting Pakistani coalition government. However, the chances of this occurring  are minimal at this point. Judging from past behavior, MQM will only switch sides as the chances of the PPP government collapsing becomes a real possibility.

If the MQM quits government, the PPP-led coalition, would lose majority (without 25 members of MQM) in Pakistan National Assembly. In the 342-member National Assembly of Pakistan 171 members are required to attain majority. The PPP without MQM support would find itself four members short of this figure. This would shift the balance in favor of Pakistan Muslim Leaque-N.

Violence as part of Extremist Strategy

Some experts claim that the violence in Karachi is directly linked to Taliban and Al Qaeda strategy to destabilize Pakistan by creating ethnic tension. MQM party represents the Urdu-speaking community, whose ancestors migrated from India to Pakistan at the time of partition, in 1947. On the other hand, ANP is a Pashtoon nationalist party and heads the government in KP, the province most adversely affected by terrorism and Taliban insurgency.

Some independent sources and observers are of the view that Pakistani Taliban (TTP), in association with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, are responsible for triggering violence. One of their reasons is to pitch their staunch opponents against one another. NATO pressure in Afghanistan, drone attacks in FATA, plus Pakistan’s military operations, have caused Karachi to become one of the primary retreating sanctuaries for various forms of extremists. The extremists also want to control Karachi, so as to disrupt NATO supplies, majority of which originate from the two ports of the city.

Conclusion

There appears to be two principal and parallel strings of causes for violence and instability in Karachi:

• One of these is linked to the party politics and its connection to the underworld. This pattern results in incidences such as the one that occurred in Shershah Kabari Bazaar, with the death of 12 innocent people and numerous other targeted killings.
• The other thread is associated with the extremists and could also have foreign origins. The events tied to this pattern are illustrated by the attack on Abdullah Shah Ghazi Shrine on October 8, which left about 8 people dead. The assassination of religious leaders and scholars, Deobandi and Barelvi tussles, including the Sunni-Shia violence, are associated with this stream.

There could be a slight overlap between the two strings of causation listed above, but for the most part, they seem to be mutually exclusive. Both streams depend on the ethnic and sectarian divides of Karachi for their benefit.

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Organized by American Pakistani Physicians for Justice and Democracy (APPJD) and United Alumni Social Forum – held July 3 & 4, 2009, San Francisco

By Arif Ansar, Dr. M. Asad Khan, Dr. M. Taqi

Association of Physicians of Pakistani-descent of North America (APPNA) held its annual convention from July 2-5, 2009 in San Francisco. As part of the convention activities two forum discussions, with focus on current situation in Pakistan, were held on July 3 and 4, 2009.

The first program was organized by the Dow, Khyber and Sindh Medical College Alumni Associations of North America, and the second event was held under the auspices of the APPJD.

As a think tank, the objective of APPJD is to use the discussion forums to build a basic framework around which a political thought process and consensus building can be developed. It has now been conducting Pakistan-centric discussion programs for three years, in both the USA and Pakistan. The APPJD has also actively participated in the recent pro-judiciary movement in Pakistan and the lawyers’ leaders visiting the USA – represented by Mr. Athar Minallah – were recognized for their struggle at the APPJD seminar.

The current APPJD President, Dr. Zahid Imran, stated that he wants the organization “to act as a conduit in developing a thought leadership” and believes that forum discussions can play an important role in creating a milieu for change. To this effect, the APPJD partnered this year with the online think tank POLITACT to synthesize information presented at the two fora in San Francisco.

The APPJD team worked with senior analyst Arif Ansar from POLITACT and Dr. Asad Khan, a practicing psychiatrist, in analyzing how the different political parties of Pakistan viewed the current predicament of the country, while also drawing attention to important matters that had previously gone unnoticed but are nonetheless critical in understanding and resolving the prevailing crises.

This article is part of a comprehensive report, which the APPJD will be publishing in the near future and which will be available on www.appjd.org.

The panel for this year’s forums included representatives from all the major Pakistani political parties. Two eminent scholars Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy and Mr. Shuja Nawaz were also present on the panel to maintain measure of objectivity in the forum discussions and to help establish facts free from a political bias. Among the representatives of the political parties were Makhdoom Javed Hashmi (PML-N), Senator Haji Muhammad Adeel (ANP), Dr. Farooq Sattar (MQM), Sajjad Burki (PTI), Dr. M. Iqbal Khalil (JI) and Dr. Babar Awan to represent the PPP and government of Pakistan.

Each panelist was called upon to provide responses regarding four major issues: 1) the basic causes of extremism in Pakistan; 2) Pakistan’s identity crisis; 3) the role of the Pakistani Army; and 4) rampant corruption.

The first forum, held on January 3, 2009, entitled, “Swat – A Paradise Lost or Heaven Gained?” furnished most of the substance related to the first issue listed above. The other issues were addressed during the second forum, held on July 4, 2009, entitled “Pakistan in Search of Identity: Constitutional Democracy or Taliban Shariah?”

In the course of these discussions, the following four factors were stressed by the different parties as the root cause of the present situation in Pakistan (the parties favoring each explanation are listed in parentheses): 1) tussles among the global powers, principally the US, Russia and China, including geopolitical issues and struggles for access to oil and gas, and historic conflicts regarding the Durand Line, the war in Afghanistan and the Kashmir issue (PML-N, ANP, JI, PTI); 2) tussles among the regional powers, principally Iran, India and Saudi Arabia (PPP, ANP); 3) religious influences emanating from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey (PPP, ANP); and 4) socio-economic factors such as poverty and poor governance (MQM, PTI).

One thing of note that emerged from the above exercise was that the different parties laid more emphasis on the present geopolitical and religious factors listed above as opposed to understanding the current crises in the context of economic, social, cultural and historical underpinnings. One can perhaps attribute such a simplistic approach to political maneuvering, populist positioning or simply a lack of vision.

The representatives of the political parties did not cover the following factors which are critical to understanding the subject under discussion: 5) the persistence of feudal and tribal norms and practices within the modern nation state; 6), population explosion; 7) illiteracy and poor educational system; 8) climate change and environmental challenges like water shortage and pollution; 9), Energy crisis and its impact on economic development; 10) lack of emphasis on indigenous research and development.

Understanding and dealing with Pakistan’s troubles require a comprehensive approach, i.e. tackling all the 10 factors simultaneously. In one form or the other these factors existed in the past as well. The political parties need to look at the historical antecedents to some of the current conflicts (e.g. FATA and Swat dilemma). The value of history cannot be ignored in studying the impact of the above listed factors on religious and sectarian extremism, role of army, the fledgling democratic process, corruption and the identity crisis afflicting Pakistan. Such a framework, as discussed above, is more likely to produce clues to solutions for the nation’s woes.

A Framework for Understanding the Predicament of Pakistan

Furthermore, the role of the national identity crisis calls for more thorough examination, as it supersedes almost all other issues in importance. The identity of an individual or society must be treated within the framework of conflict and political-social crises. For individuals and societies, identity crises occur when their personal, social and political identity is threatened from within and without, i.e. historical continuity is disrupted. Vestiges of colonial past, impact of rapid globalization on the tradition and culture, negative foreign influences, political elite perceived to lack legitimacy, chronic injustice and rampant illiteracy – all can cause a general sense of angst which in turn can result in an erosion of values. If these afflictions are prolonged, a sense of insecurity and alienation from the society and oneself – an identity crisis – sets in. This in turn leads to disdain and devaluation of oneself and one’s own society as a whole.

At present, the manifestations of an identity crisis in Pakistan are all too evident: general intolerance of difference in opinions, traditions and religious identities. At an individual level, involvement in suicide bombings and ethnic and sectarian killings and at the broader level, rape and plunder of the national assets in the form of massive political corruption, destruction of institutions and general lawlessness are all examples of various aspects of identity crisis.

It is important to note that from a psychological perspective, a person or a nation who has not mastered or dealt with issues of identity is likely to repeat these mistakes in the present and the future. Failure to do so could result in that no plans for the future can be adopted with confidence.

After looking at the views of the political representatives, we note that the success of any political party or leader in halting the deteriorating situation will require adoption of a different strategy. None of the political parties presently are looking to meaningfully alter the existing realities by taking a fresh look at them. As Mr. Shuja Nawaz succinctly put it, “Both political and military leadership has lacked foresight, now and in the past.”

We believe that initiative on the part of thought leaders could do much to change these realities. Unfortunately many intellectuals are mired in their own identity crises, leading them to vacillate between a reactionary intellectual orthodoxy on the one hand and a mindless embrace of Western ideas on the other. It is not surprising that observers within and outside Pakistan have questioned the capacity of Pakistani intellectuals to effectively tackle the national challenges.

To implement such a framework, as discussed above, requires a twofold realization. First, the intellectuals will have to step up to their moral responsibility and generate the critical analyses which are sorely needed to find solutions to the Pakistan’s quagmire. Second, a leadership which not only encourages deep introspection and study of the multifarious problems that afflict the country using indigenous non-partisan people sources, but at the same time has the vision to discern and harness the outcome of such analyses. The APPJD plans to pursue discussion on the specific issues raised in this report at its future seminars, starting with its winter symposium in December 2009 to be held in Karachi.

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