The Pakistan cabinet on Wednesday approved a proposal which grants India status of “most favored nation”. Information minister Firdous Ashiq Awan told reporters; “the federal cabinet has unanimously approved India as the most favored nation.”

The move is an effort to improve the relations between the two countries, and to increase economic benefits to both India and Pakistan. Awan however acknowledged that some cabinet ministers had opposed the status due to the dispute between the countries over Kashmir.

Pakistan has already conferred the status of “most favored nation” to a hundred countries. The inclusion of India is likely to improve bilateral trade relations. India and Pakistan in September agreed increase trade from $2 to $6 billion with in three years, to set up a second trade border post and to facilitate business visa for each other’s citizens.

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An America jury has convicted a Pakistani-born Canadian of aiding a militant group responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. But the 50-year old Tahawwur Rana was cleared of more serious charges of planning the attack which left more than 160 people dead in the Indian city. He was also convicted of aiding an aborted plot on a Denmark based newspaper. The verdict is due to be announced later and Rana could face up to 30 years imprisonment.

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Context

Soon after meeting Vice President Joe Biden, President Zardari is heading to US to take part in the memorial services honoring Richard Holbrooke. This article examines the significance of this visit as Mike Mullen declared Pakistan the epicenter of global terrorism today. Facing dire economic prospects, Pakistan appears all set to pursue a political solution while US demands an operation in North Waziristan to deal with Afghan quagmire.

Analysis

The memorial service for Richard Holbrooke has turned in to a mini conference of sorts. Not only will the service provide an opportunity to honor his diplomatic services and achievements, but also an occasion for international dignitaries to informally take stock of the Afghan situation. Special representatives for Afghanistan, from many different countries, are attending. Reportedly, Holbrooke used to have a monthly consultation with this group on the situation of Afghanistan. He was also a staunch supporter of Zardari government.

From the point of view US, Zaradri’s visit provides a good opportunity to get his first-hand impression on the situation of Pakistan and its relations with India, including FATA and Afghanistan, and compare it to the military leadership of the country. It would also be interesting to hear his side of the story on the brazen assassination of the Governor of Punjab, Salman Taseer. There is considerable concern in US on how far the religious extremism has spread in Pakistan and what it means for the future of the country.

Zardari travels to US as a much-weakened President. Just a few days ago his Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led coalition government appeared to be falling apart. The only reason it was able to survive was because it made a swift u-turn under political pressure, and reversed the price hikes on fuel it had announced earlier. Furthermore, the fragility of his government means it lacks political clout to muster support for Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST). The IMF, World Bank, and US economic assistance to Pakistan is dependent on the implementation of these provisions. However, these reforms and taxes are highly unpopular in Pakistan. The economy of the country was already reeling from the impact of terrorism, the floods and the energy crisis has nearly crippled the nation’s economy.

In these circumstances, the nations sentiment including that of its military is fast shifting towards a political solution for Afghanistan quagmire and FATA insurgency. A peace initiative supported by Turkey is gaining ground in the region, and as part of this the head of Afghan Peace Committee Burhanuddin Rabbani, recently visited Pakistan. However, US wants Pakistan to take military action in North Waziristan as that would strengthen its position and operations in Afghanistan, and weaken the bargaining leverage of Afghan Taliban.

This difference of premise was also apparent in the media coverage of Joe Biden’s visit to Pakistan. Pakistan’s media bolstered the country has made clear to US that it would no longer accept any Great Game ambitions in Afghanistan, and foreign interference in FATA. Whereas media coverage in US is represented by Mike Mullen’s statement today, stating that Pakistan was the epicenter of global terrorism and that Pakistan Army knows what it has to do to eliminate safe havens.

At this crucial junction of the Afghan war, Pakistan’s military may have decided its time for a political solution, as it can no longer sustain the conflict economically. Before sitting down for talks, US wants Pakistan to carryout the North Waziristan operation and is willing to provide the economic and military assistance the country needs. With anti-American sentiment running high in Pakistan, and economic situation worsening by the day, no government would be able to survive for long if it chooses to disregard public opinion.

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Context

To date Afghanistan has given $1 million while India has offered up to $20 million for the flood victims in Pakistan. There have been allegations in the past that both were attempting to weaken the geopolitical stature of Pakistan in the region. However, in the post flood scenario India and Afghanistan have a lot to loose if Pakistan destabilizes beyond a certain point and if religious extremists appear to be gaining the upper hand. This analysis examines the possible positions of both countries in the aftermath of the ruinous floods in Pakistan.

Analysis

From the perspective of many in Pakistan, in order to establish its hegemony in the region, India in association with Afghanistan has been trying to weaken and destabilize Pakistan in a pincer style maneuver. Many people in Pakistan claim that the Indian diplomatic presence in Afghanistan particularly its consulates located around the Pak-Afghan border, are meant especially for this purpose. Furthermore, the terrorist groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which usually claims responsibility for most of the deadly attacks in Pakistan, are thought to be proxies for RAW and Mossad.

If the above theory is taken to be true, then the havoc brought about by the floodwaters has aided the mission of the above countries tremendously. However, their objective may have been to weaken Pakistan delicately up to a point, and not allow the balance of the power to tilt in favor of the religious extremists. Their emphasis may have been to change the behavior of Pakistan and thus to make it cease its traditional support for jihadi groups operating in Afghanistan and Kashmir. In order to achieve this, Pakistan’s risk reward calculus for aiding these groups had to be reversed. One way to accomplish this was to drive the focus of these groups inwards, as oppose to outwards, and thus shift their utility for Pakistan from being a strategic asset to strategic liability.

Nature appears to have played a cruel joke. Floods have utterly devastated Pakistan’s agriculture, economy and infrastructure. The focus of the Army at least for the time being has shifted to relief and rehabilitation efforts. In PoliTact’s assessment, in the medium to long term, the military would have to choose either to fight the extremists or carry out relief and reconstruction efforts, but it cannot do both.

Anticipating the emerging situation in which the odds are stacked up against the Pakistan army and the political set-up, it is likely the government will attempt a rapprochement with the religious groups. Although the probability of this happening has been lessened by the recent attacks claimed by TTP against the Shiite ethnicity in Lahore and Quetta. Nonetheless, Afghanistan sensing the possibility of this outcome has forewarned the US. The country has vocally claimed that the reason Afghan war is facing a stalemate is because of the duplicitous role of Pakistan and the safe haven which still exist there, a view backed by General Petraeus last week. Meanwhile, Karzai announced the formulation of a ‘peace council’ to start the peace talks with the Taliban who are willing to accept the Afghan constitution, lay down their arms and break ties with terrorist organizations.

Karzai and Afghan strategy appears to be moving in the direction of making peace with Taliban but meanwhile shifting the focus of the world towards extremists in Pakistan. This position is also supportive of India’s stance as it wants Pakistan to take action against Kashmir related jihadist such as Lashkar-e-Toyyiba (LeT). However, in the aftermath of floods both India and Afghanistan may have to change their approach towards Pakistan. In the future, they would have to adopt a highly supportive role towards strengthening Pakistan’s economy and its military, and not doing so may result in producing the scenario these countries may have been trying to avoid.

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Context

The US and South Korea began a series of high-powered war games on Sunday 25th of July in a clear deterrent action against North Korea. North Korea has vowed to retaliate with a ‘Sacred War’ including the use of nuclear force. After the sinking of the Cheonan back in March the region has experienced increasing tension between the two Koreas. The military exercises being held between the 25th and the 28th of July are only set to increase the tension. As China PROJECTS POWER in the Asia Pacific realm, the country has to be concerned about being outflanked. China’s allies and economic interests are coming under pressure not only in the Asia Pacific and Middle East but also in South and Central Asia region.

Analysis

Twenty ships, two hundred planes and eight thousand military personnel are engaged in the four days of military exercises held jointly between South Korea and the US. The exercises come just days after new sanctions were announced by Washington against the government in Pyongyang. The sanctions involve increased restrictions on monetary transactions, luxury goods and the sale of arms.

Both measures are attempts by the US and its allies in South Korea to deter the North from attempting any more ‘aggressive’ behavior-in reference to the sinking of the South Korean ship the Cheonan back in March. North Korea-who strongly deny any involvement in the Cheonan incident-claim they are not the aggressors: stating that the military exercises are “unpardonable military provocation” intended to prepare the way for an invasion of the North by the US and the South.

Pyongyang has reminded the world that “we also have nuclear weapons” in an article of the same title published by the Minju Joson government newspaper. The threat of nuclear force is largely seen as a bluff by the North, as similar threats have been made previously without subsequent action. But the question remains as to just how much provocations (‘deterrence’) North Korea will take before it actually makes good on its promise of retaliation.

If the international investigation which concluded the North sank the Cheonan was correct, one would have to imagine that the North is capable of following through on at least some form of reprisal-even if nuclear fire power is not a reality. If we assume that the Cheonan was sunk by the North, as is so vehemently claimed by the US (despite widening uncertainty within South Korean factions) then it can also be assumed that the North is willing and able to make aggressive moves, no matter how ill-conceived.

The military exercises are likely to be far from deterrent in their outcome. The new US spy chief, James Clapper has even cautioned that “North Korea’s military forces still pose a threat that cannot be taken lightly.” Clapper further warned that the North may well be entering into a new phase whereby it will “…once again attempt to advance its internal and external political goals through direct attacks on our allies in the Republic of Korea.”

As previously noted byPOLI TACT, the US is treading on more than just North Korean toes in the region. China is very unhappy about the military exercises taking place in its front yard, feeling that such a strong show of force will only exacerbate tensions in the region. China has exerted enough pull on the US to have the exercises moved from the Yellow Sea, where they were originally planned, to the Sea of Japan. In another move which may put a few more noses out of joint, the US is now referring to the ‘Sea of Japan’ in terms of the ‘East Sea’ to placate South Korea over its continued objection to the body of water being referred to as the Sea of Japan. Name games aside, many in the US are worried that the seeming downscaling of the military exercises has left the US on the back foot and China in a position of increased power. By conceding to the pressure to move the war games, the US has set a precedent which will make any future movement into the Yellow Sea difficult, to say the least.

Furthermore, in a perhaps unforeseen consequence of the maritime exercises, the US has inadvertently challenged China, who now feels it is imperative to reassert power in the region. The military games have only served to highlight the issue of maritime security in the region and China appears to have come out with the resolve that it needs become stronger to counter the US; hence the pressure over the Yellow Sea. China has also subsequently reframed the trigger of tensions in the region to be the US and South Korea’s reaction to the sinking of the Cheonan, not the sinking of the Cheonan itself.

The US must realize that the continued talk of war (lightly sugar-coated as ‘tough action’) is drawing a line in the sand through East Asia, especially since the signing of a mutual protection pact between North Korea and China back in November of 2009. Any action against Pyongyang is drawing the region closer to all-out war, as China is bound to come to the aid of the North. The US is now in the position of trying to not lose face by toning down its rhetoric and action against North Korea, but placating China at the same time-a tough game to play.

The high profile support that the US is giving to South Korea may prove to be, rather than its intended check on China and deterrent to North Korea, a tangible example of the fragility of the US hegemony; exposing the real fault lines that divide the region’s major powers.

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