Retaliation was expected from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for or a number of reasons, the most important being the death of Baitullah Mehsud; thus preventive and protective measure were in place. TTP has struck in Peshawar, Kohat, and Bannu, accompanied by assassinations of tribal leaders supporting the government backed militias, the lashkars.

The timing of the weekend attacks is noteworthy, as they occurred against the backdrop of the passage of the Kerry-Lugar bill and the meeting of President Zardari and the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, which he co-chaired with President Obama and Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The meeting was intended to demonstrate global support for Pakistan’s campaign against extremists. The purpose of the TTP’s attack, on the other hand, was to show that it is alive and kicking.

For the extremists to be able to once again penetrate the peripheries of the most secure areas of Peshawar tells volumes about the incapacity of the civilian security apparatus of NWFP/Pukhtunkhwa in particular and Pakistan in general. Like the earlier attack on the PC hotel in Peshawar, this incident could and should have been prevented. After all, three previous attacks have been attempted at the same location.

Here we examine the history of high-profile attacks on Saddar Bazaar in Peshawar and also propose some common sense countermeasures, much needed during times of heightened and unprecedented threat levels. Although these measures relate largely to Peshawar, they can also be successfully employed in other cities. We also look at the volatile geopolitics of the region, especially in light of the US decision to overhaul its missile defense system, to the delight of Russia.

Analysis

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Taliban Targeting Pattern

Saddar Bazaar on the whole presents a valuable target area. Saddar and Qissa Khawani Bazaar are the two most well-known shopping centers of Peshawar.  If Saddar is the shopping area of choice for the middle and upper-classes, Qissa Khawani is a ‘go to’ for working people and much less secure. Both were frequently attacked during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan; the attacks were blamed on the Afghan Intelligence Service, KHAD. Over the years, the government has repeatedly failed to ensure the security of the Bazaar. Past incidents included the bombing of a general store, Wadud Sons, which resulted in the deaths of more than 40 people. In the 80s, a bombing destroyed the nearby office of the Pakistan International Airlines.

The exact location of the present attacks included a wedding hall, a popular upscale carpet shop often frequented by foreigners and a military-affiliated civilian bank, the Askari.  It is worth noting that the exact location had already been subject to attack, albeit with less tragic consequences.  The sorry performance of the civilian security apparatus is inexcusable.

Based on this anecdotal information PoliTact can confidently predict that due to the limited number of high value targets in Peshawar City, Saddar Bazaar will be the scene of more attacks if appropriate countermeasures are not taken immediately.

The TTP has the following targeting pattern:

• Pakistan military-affiliated businesses or in general, locations frequented by present or past military officials or their families (such as Askari Bank, Welfare Shops, etc.).
• Places frequented by foreigners, e.g., Aid and diplomatic officials (such as carpet shops and hotels).
• Clergymen outspokenly critical of Taliban teachings, tactics and strategies.
• Locations connected with Pakistan’s intelligence and security personal, including suspected locations of foreign security and intelligence officials (many of these are located in the Cantonment area and are often accessible from the Khyber Road).
• As in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Police.

Based on the above analysis, it’s not difficult to discover potential Taliban targets in a small city like Peshawar. The next target could easily be the shopping plazas that surround the suburb of University Town, where many foreign officials reside. Another one could be the residences of high-level government officials or the International Airport of Peshawar.

Counter Measures

It’s not enough to simply identify potential threats – one must suggest countermeasures. The following is a list of some simple and commonsensical counter-terrorism measures that can go a long way towards protecting the lives and property of citizens. All emphasize the involvement of the community in civil defense duties.

• Have best trained counter-terrorism experts and security personnel monitor the lower ranks of the police. These individuals often belong to the military. This will ensure that proper security procedures and protocols are being followed, especially during times of national and religious holidays, meals, prayers, night and shift rotation, etc. If this not already taking place, it should be given priority.
• Medium and large-size trucks should never be allowed access to sensitive facilities, so these facilities must not have adjacent parking lots in order to avoid falling victim to VBIEDs.  This should be adopted as a standard security procedure.
• Peshawar’s Saddar Bazaar and many other shopping centers in the country are situated in extremely congested locations. Due to the country’s extraordinary security problems, vehicular traffic in these bazaars should be disallowed. The provision of parking lots that are a 10 to 15 minutes walk from the bazaars can go a long way towards removing the most dangerous threats. Most people will understand the need to exchange a measure of convenience for safety.
• Induct the private guards of the business and shops located in these bazaars into the government-sponsored Civil Security Awareness and Training Program. The objective of these short orientations should be to train these individuals in identifying potential trouble- makers (especially during the stage when extremists carry out surveying and target selection), in addition to providing a better understanding of countermeasures and reporting procedures.
• Use civilian transport system drivers, especially of buses, taxis and rickshaws, as informants to report suspicious activities in the city. Day laborers can also be very useful for monitoring purposes. Some of these techniques have been employed very successfully in Saudi Arabia.
• The Government should develop and sponsor a Community Security Awareness Program using media campaigns. The main goal of these campaigns should be to enhance public awareness of the fact that life cannot be expected to continue normally under the present security conditions; every citizen has an obligation to act as a security guard in his/her neighborhood, as is in countries like Israel, where college students are recruited into highly responsible civil defense and security duties. Pakistan can draw on the experience of the NCC (National Cadet Corps) for this purpose.
• Promote the use of Ring Road as a detour and alternative to the use of Khyber Road and possibly Jamrud Road as well. The use of Khyber Road for commercial traffic, or minimally to trucks and buses, should immediately stop during the emergency period. (If this measure was in place, the suicide attack on the PC Hotel could have been averted.)

Geopolitics

The Pakistani Army has every reason to launch the much-awaited ground operation against TTP in Waziristan, but it has to walk a sensitive line of non-interference with respect to the Afghan Taliban, who have remained friendly towards Pakistan. After the Swat Operation, the United States is once again ratcheting up the pressure. With the US and NATO increasingly caught up in a sticky position in Afghanistan, where the insurgency is fast getting out of control, Pakistan cannot escape some of the blame for the worsening situation there.

After the US decisions to revamp their missile defense system, Russia is courting Iran. How firm Russian and Chinese support of stronger sanctions against Iranian nuclear belligerence will be remains to be seen. Meanwhile China is gradually coming out more strongly against the growing US presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. While there is again much talk in the media of US drone attacks and special forces raids in Quetta and other places, the goal appears more to pressure Pakistan into action in Waziristan than anything else.

From Pakistan’s point of view, the US will sooner or later have to realize that without talks with the Afghan Taliban, the situation in Afghanistan is not going to improve. By changing its stance on the missile defense system in regard to Russia, the US has probably convinced the Taliban that victory is just around the corner. The US needs the help of its ally, Pakistan, more than ever in order to deal with Afghanistan and understands that Pakistan’s willingness to act is predicated on considerations of its security interest vis-a-vis India, as well as the civilian and military aid promised to Pakistan under the Kerry-Lugar bill.

Although President Obama is now approaching a decision regarding a new strategy for Afghanistan, we believe that it will be difficult to reverse or alter the institutional momentum built up over the last eight years. Any change will most likely be incremental.

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The post The Emerging Geopolitics The Suicide Bombing in Peshawar -The Revenge Attacks Begins appeared first on Politact.

Context
Various interpretations have come to light on the assassination attempt against Mullah Nazir. There are two possible connections; one is linked to the benefit US, Pakistan and Afghanistan derive. The other has to do with the motives of Afghan Taliban, TTP, and Al Qaeda. There is obviously the evolving situation of the region to consider, especially the improving US-Pakistan ties.

Hina Rabbani Khar’s recent statement that US and Pakistan ties have been resorted, speaks volumes about the changed atmosphere. Far from media attention, there are indications that some kind of quid pro quo has finally been reached on how to tackle the complex relations between Afghan Taliban, TTP and AQ. Pakistan’s acquiescence towards a terrorist label for Haqqani network and US backing off from insisting on a military operation in North Waziristan may have accompanied this understanding.

In the aftermath of the collapsed attempt to open a Taliban political office in Qatar, another reconciliation attempt, this time led by Afghanistan, is taking shape. Pakistan has agreed to facilitate the intra-Afghan dialogue process with the release of Taliban prisoners, which may ultimately include Mullah Baradar, the deputy of Mullah Omar captured in 2010. The changing political landscape could have triggered power jockeying amongst the non-state actors that led to the attack on Mullah Nazir.

One of the key goal for the US and NATO strategy has all along been to create divides between AQ, Afghan Taliban and TTP. On the other hand, Pakistan is seriously concerned about the TTP, it continues to carry out attacks against the state. The attack on Mullah Nazir causes infighting amongst Pakistani Taliban and thus distracts them from targeting Pakistan and US troops in Afghanistan. Moreover, it also pressures Afghan Taliban to partake in the reconciliation talks.

The post Who Benefits From The Attack On Mullah Nazir? appeared first on Politact.

Context

A sea change in the approach to Afghan conflict is coming to the fore. From primarily a military method, matters evolved to a strategy that involved fighting and talking at the same time. Now, NATO and US have thanked Pakistan for letting go of some high profile Taliban in detention, and for facilitating the Afghan-led peace process. Previously, Pakistan was blamed for not doing enough to crack down on Afghan Taliban residing in FATA.

On the other hand, the Taliban have claimed that the released prisoners are no longer important to the movement. Moreover, they declared, the peace process cannot move forward until the NATO forces withdraw. Meanwhile, after being labeled a terrorist outfit, Haqqani network recently asserted if Mullah Omar approves to move forward with the peace process, it would also follow suit.

The change in NATO strategy does not mean it is without options. While Pakistan has remained the focus of attention, recent events have pointed to the suspicious regional role Karzai government is increasingly playing, especially in FATA and Balochistan. However, while speaking at the Center for a New American Security, Leon Panetta reiterated the US position on November 20,

“Look, in many ways, the success in Afghanistan is dependent on having a Pakistan that is willing to confront terrorism on its side of the border and prevent (militant) safe havens,” the secretary commented.

Analysis

Afghanistan, Tribal Areas And Balochistan

During the US election campaign, President Obama stayed away from discussing Afghanistan in detail. Ever since Pakistan declared its acquiesce towards a terrorist label for Haqqani network, the harsher criticism from the American side has ceased. There is another noteworthy change in the region that came about in the aftermath of Malala incident. The US acknowledged that the perpetrator of the attack, Mowlana Fazlullah, was indeed hiding in the North East Afghanistan as claimed by Pakistan. Reportedly, an unnamed US official told The Washington Post “Finding Fazlullah is not a priority because he is not affiliated with al Qaeda or with insurgents targeting the US and Afghan interests.”

In other words, the US conveyed it is concerned about the Haqqanis, not the Fazlullahs. The Americans reciprocated Pakistan in kind. The major reason cited by Pakistan for not acting against Afghan Taliban is that it does not target them.

Earlier in August, Pakistan Interior Minister Rehman Malik had alleged that elements within the Afghan government were likely supporting Fazlullah. He told Reuters “I think some of the elements (of the Afghan government) there are supporters. Maybe state actors, maybe non-state actors.” The logic in the accusation is that same as that leveled against Pakistan for its role in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, the point being that Pakistan is being destabilized from Afghanistan with the active support of Karzai government while NATO forces have intentionally decided to look the other way. This obviously does not bode well for Pak-Afghan relations and the envisioned economic integration of the region.

The Afghan role in the deteriorating situation of Balochistan has also come under focus. In March, Pakistan’s Interior Minister claimed that President Karzai had admitted some inference in Balochistan was taking place from Afghanistan. “President Karzai has promised to stop infiltration of militants from Afghanistan into Pakistan,” Rehman Malik told reporters.

Speaking to Pakistan’s Senate in August, Malik presented the recruitment and training process for those conducting terror-related activities in Balochistan. He elaborated that after receiving basic training in about 45 training camps, brainwashed youngsters are sent to Afghanistan to obtain advance training. For proof, he showed official letters written by the Afghan government to fund and support the activities of Brahmdagh Bugti and his followers.

Afghanistan And India

Another aspect of Pakistan’s concern with Afghanistan has to do with the nature of its ties with India.
President Karzai visited India for five days in mid-November. The two countries previously signed a strategic agreement in 2011 and India has already committed 2 billion in assistance for Afghanistan. During the visit, Karzai was not just seeking more investments, but also testing Indian limits in enhancing the capacity of Afghan security forces. As far as Pakistan is concerned, training of Afghan military forces by India is an extremely sensitive matter.

It is not clear what the US intentions are in regards to India’s military role in Afghanistan. Although India itself is wary of its military involvement, US has encouraged it to take on a more active role once NATO’s begins to limit its military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. There is obviously a risk that in addition to the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan may also become a theater for tussles between India and Pakistan. In the wider politics of Middle East, the NATO and US tilt has thus far been in favor of Sunni groups. This stance is unlikely to change as long as Iran remains a bone of contention.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, And Iran

Although India has abided with western sanctions on Iran and in restricting economic affairs with the country, Afghanistan and Pakistan have continued to deal with it. The insistence of Afghanistan and Pakistan on diversifying economic and energy relations with Iran are few of the other complicating factors when it comes to US-Pakistan relations and the future of Afghanistan. While talking to a private TV channel at the D8 Summit in Islamabad, Ahmedinejad emphasized how Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan can solve many of the regional problems themselves, and foreign presence was the reason for the perpetuating conflict. While Afghanistan has signed an agreement with US allowing it’s military to remain there beyond 2014, Iran has alleged that US bases are being used to destabilize Iran and Pakistan.

(Iranian President also noted that Iran was ready to assist Pakistan in building the infrastructure for the controversial gas pipeline project.)

The Durand Line

Afghanistan also continues to play with Pakistan’s sensitivities when it comes to the Durand Line. The country went in to an uproar when Mark Grossman presented the US position on the issue. In an interview on Afghan TV on October 21, he stated: “Our policy is that border is the international border.”

While talking to reporters in Kandahar on October 23, the new US Ambassador to Afghanistan James Cunningham reiterated “The United States, as many other countries, have long recognized the Durand Line as the boundary between Afghanistan and Pakistan.”

Other commentary that surrounded the debate pointed to the fact that Pakistan’s alarm about Afghan intentions is not that out of place. In all three countries: Pakistan, Afghanistan and India, there are those who want to undo history.

While Pakistan is blamed for the cross-border attacks emanating from Waziristan, what has emerged is that the Afghans and NATO forces are equally at fault for the out of control provinces of Kunar and Nuristan. The security forces of Pakistan have repeatedly suffered under deadly attacks in Bajuar, Swat and Dir, from militants linked to Fazlullah faction. There are fears Taliban resurgence may once again be occurring in the area.

In response to inaction by NATO and Afghan forces, Pakistan is carrying out shelling across the border against the militants. However, Afghans claim the bombardment is causing civilian causalities.

A Senator from Kunar, Rafullah Haidari, commented in September “On the fourth day of Eid, tribal elders held a meeting at the provincial governor’s office and decided to declare Jihad against Pakistan’s invasion into Kunar province. The residents of Kunar are registering their names to defend their soil.”

Conclusion

While millions of Afghans are still in Pakistan, and while it has ruthlessly blamed the country for all that ails it, recent events shed light on the contagious role Afghanistan is willing to play in the region, including in FATA and Balochistan. As the Afghan led peace process moves forward, the nation is likely to use this leverage more and more against Pakistan.

The post Mounting Concerns Regarding Afghanistan’s Regional Motives appeared first on Politact.

The beheaded body of a British Red Cross worker Khalil Dale, abducted about 4 months ago, was found today in Quetta. According to an unnamed Pakistani official, Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for the killing citing non-payment of ransom.

Meanwhile, US launched its first drone strike in North Waziristan since Pakistan completed parliamentary review of its relations with America. According to US media sources, Punjabi Taliban associated with Haqqani network were targeted in a school in Miramshah.

As a result of the review, Pakistan had demanded cessation of drone strikes and formal US apology for the Salala incident that had killed 24 Pakistan soldiers. NATO Afghan supply live have remained suspended since the tragedy.

Meanwhile, conflicting media reports have appeared on the recently completed trip of Ambassador Marc Grossman to Pakistan. A few sources have indicated that agreement to resume NATO supply line and clearing of arrears related to the Coalition Support Funds (CSF), has been reached between officials of the two countries, but now is in jeopardy due to the fresh drone strikes. Other reports presented an account that since US has failed to apologize; Pakistan will not restore the supply line.

The post Red Cross Worker Killed In Quetta As Drone Strikes Resume And Mixed Reports Emerge On Grossman’s Visit appeared first on Politact.

Context

Media reports indicate that prominent Pakistani Taliban commanders have held meetings with Al Qaeda leaders and Afghan Taliban on November 27 in Wanna – South Waziristan, and on December 11 in Datta Khel – North Waziristan. Reports also indicate that Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban leaders tried to convince Pakistani Taliban to set aside their differences, and assist them in their fight against the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Two different narratives have emerged on these critical developments, as US troops begins to withdraw from Afghanistan and reconciliation process speeds up. One of these suggests the formation of new alliances represented by the Islamic hardliners, while the other projects an imminent clash emerging with in the TTP ranks.

Analysis

Al Qaeda, Afghan And Pakistani Taliban Alliance – Shura-e-Murakeba

The gatherings of Al Qaeda, Afghan, and Pakistani Taliban seem to have taken place as US drone strikes were on hold in the aftermath of the November NATO Mohmand strike. Senior Al Qaeda leader Abu Yahya al-Libi as well as Siraj-ud-din Haqqani of Haqqani network, attended the meetings. Reportedly, other leaders attending included Hakimullah Mehsud and his deputy Waliur Rehman of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Spokesperson for TTP, Ehsanullah Ehsan stated that Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahdur, which Pakistan considers as Good Taliban, including Zabiullah Mujahid and Maulvi Sangeen, were also present. Some accounts suggest that Mullah Omar had sent Siraj Haqqani and Mullah Mansour to broker the agreement.

The congregations have produced the following outcomes:

• A consultative body, know as Shura-e-Murakeba to sort out differences between the groups
• Avoiding the unnecessary killings and kidnappings for ransom
• Ending of attacks on Pakistani military and refocusing of efforts towards US led coalition in Afghanistan

The declaration of not attacking Pakistan forces could be the result of the peace negotiations, taking place between the TTP and Pakistan. According to media reports, TTP has not fully committed to stop attacking Pakistani targets.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s security forces claimed on Sunday to have killed Qari Kamran, the TTP commander in Khyber Agency. Qari Kamran was involved in attacks on security personnel, particularly the suicide attack on Shabqadar that killed 90 cadets, and the twin bombing in Nowshehra that resulted in the death of 20 people. At the same time, statements from TTP indicate there are no assurances that attacks on Pakistan’s military would end.

At the same time, some media sources indicate that a rift has emerged between TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud and his deputy Waliur Rehman, and it’s a matter of time before it develops in to a full blown infighting. Hakimullah Mehsud is accused of accepting support from India. He has also been at odds with Mullah Nazir of South Waziristan, Hafiz Gul Bahadur of North Waziristan, and Fazal Saeed of Kurram Agency.

Pakistani Jihadist And Pakistan Defense Council

In a fashion similar to the meetings of Taliban and Al Qaeda in FATA, Pakistan’s Punjab based jihadist also came together in a recent meeting in Lahore, held after the NATO Mohmand attack. In this gathering, banned religious group Jamaatud Dawa (JD) protested against the granting of most favored nation (MFN) to India, and declared it was ready for jihad against NATO. The gathering of 44 right wing entities and personalities was held under the banner of the Difaa-i-Pakistan Council (Pakistan Defense Council).

Afghan Reconciliation

On the other hand, the Afghan reconciliation process is also gaining momentum. Recently, close aides to Mullah Muhammad Omar met US representatives for the peace talks. Syed Muhammad Akbar Agha, the former leader of Jaish-ul-Muslimin Movement, said that Taliban are open to negotiating with US and Qatar would be the best place for Taliban to open an office. According to media reports, in the negotiations, he proposed the release of important Taliban leaders incarcerated in Guantanamo. These included, Maulawi Khairkhah, Noorullah Noori, Maulawi Wasiq, Mohammad Nabi Khosti, Haji Wali Mohammad and Mullah Fazlullah.

Meanwhile, US clarified its position when Vice President Joe Biden recently stated that Taliban per se are not US enemy. Mr. Biden encouraged reconciliation process with the Taliban and declared that war in Afghanistan is not against the Taliban. Subsequently, White House defended Biden’s statement and reiterated that the war in Afghanistan was mainly against Al Qaeda, to stabilize the country, and to root out those who pose a threat to the US.

Emerging Strategies of US And Pakistan

The meetings of Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, and TTP in FATA, are meant to show that despite the US surge these groups remain potent. Additionally, as oppose to creating divides between them, which was one of the main premise of the US AfPak strategy, extremists of the region are stable enough to be forming alliances. This only increases US dependence on Pakistan, to maintain calm after the US withdraws from Afghanistan. Additionally, it strengthens the negotiation position of Taliban.

The new US strategy in the Middle East and South and Central Asia, is premised not on preventing the Islamists from gaining power, but to counter the extremists through the use of moderate Islamists. In the changed ground situation, it is no longer possible for the secular and authorarian quarters to deliver.

These gatherings in FATA and Islamists in Lahore, will also be interpreted as an attempt of Pakistan’s military to pull the Islamists together in the aftermath of the NATO Mohmand attack on November 26. The incident is proving to be a turning point towards changing the threat perception of Pakistan.

After 9/11, Pakistan had to increasingly shift its focus to FATA and to counter Al-Qaeda and many other formulations of extremists that came to reside there. Overtime, the country came under considerable pressure from US and NATO to revise its traditional national security focus; away from India and towards dealing with extremists. The Mumbai Incident served as a proof that the danger Pakistan faced was not external, but internal. This argument was used to convince Pakistan to move its troops from its eastern border, to carry out operations in FATA, including North Waziristan. Now, the pendulum may be swinging back to its original formulation.

The post Implications Of The New Extremist Alliances: Shura-e-Murakeba and Pakistan Defense Council appeared first on Politact.

US has said that the coming weeks will show how committed Pakistan is to fight extremism. The comments were made by US Senators Jack Reed and Mark Udall who returned from a trip to Pakistan and Afghanistan. The senators said the Pakistan intelligence was working with the US authorities but said more cooperation was needed from Islamabad.

Senator Reed told reporters that the high level meetings between Pakistan and the US following Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the region had helped to improve Pakistani officials’ attitude towards demands made by Washington. “It does feel, at times, like Pakistan is playing both the role of fireman and arsonist in Afghanistan,” added Democratic Senator Mark Udall, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

The senators urged Pakistan to take concrete actions against the Haqqani network which is responsible for deadly attacks on US and NATO troops in Kabul.

The post US Senators State Coming Weeks Key To US-Pakistan Ties appeared first on Politact.

A US drone strike killed five Taliban commanders belonging to the Maulvi Nazir faction of the Taliban in South Waziristan on Thursday. According to reports, the five insurgents killed have been identified as Hazrat Omar, Khan Muhammad, Miraj Wazir and Ashfaq Wazir. The identity of the fifth was not revealed. The Nazir group is active in carrying out attacks in Afghanistan against western troops. According to Mansur Khan Mehsud of the FATA Research Centre think tank, “They are a very important group because while they are based in Pakistan they are very active in Afghanistan,”

The Nazir faction has claimed it is not against the Pakistani state, and is considered as ‘Good Taliban’ by the country. The Pakistani military is believed to have provided guarantees to the good Taliban that it would not launch an operation against it, if it does not target the state. US has previously avoided targeting the good Taliban, a position it no longer abides by.

The post US Drones Kill Five Commanders Of Nazir Taliban Faction appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan accused NATO on of violating its airspace on Wednesday. Pakistani officials said that two NATO helicopters entered into Datta Khel around 2am. According to reports, the choppers flew around the border village of Zoi Nara before returning back into Afghanistan after the Pakistani security troops fired warning shots. NATO has denied the allegations. A spokesperson for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said no helicopter had crossed the border into Pakistan.

The US and NATO have repeatedly blamed Pakistan for not doing enough to combat terrorism in its territory. The western powers are trying to eliminate safe havens from the region before troop withdrawal in 2014.

The post NATO Helicopters Violate Pakistan’s Air Space appeared first on Politact.

Context

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton headed a powerful delegation to Pakistan for a two-day visit. The trip to Islamabad was preceded by a stop-over in Afghanistan, and afterward Clinton was headed to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to conclude her Central Asia tour. The high-profile delegation was clearly on a fence-mending mission, with Clinton all smiles during her stay in Pakistan. The friendly overtone belies a struggling US-Pakistan relationship, with the future of Afghanistan at the core.

Analysis

Clinton’s visit was a busy one, with public audiences given to a carefully selected group of business leaders and students, as well as peer-to-peer government meetings and closed-door sessions with Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari.

The message, by and large, is the same: deal with safe havens along the Afghan border, or we will deal with them for you. However, there was a notable tone of conciliation coming from Clinton, particularly in the public audience sessions.

It appears that one aspect of the trip was to make amends for the comments made by Admiral Mike Mullen about the ISI’s relationship with the Haqqani network. Clinton clearly stated when the question arose that there was ‘no evidence’ to support Mullen’s claims. However, it has been suggested that the issue about the ISI and the Haqqani network is being pursued behind closed doors, to minimize public outcry on both sides about the relationship.

Public and media perceptions were big topics on the agenda in the public audience sessions. Many audience members pointed out that the anti-Americanism witnessed in the Pakistani media and public opinions was being mirrored by a ‘demonize Pakistan’ campaign in the US media, which has hugely affected the public perception in the US of Pakistan’s role in the war on terror and the NATO efforts in Afghanistan.

Clinton was keen to keep the talks focused on ways Pakistan and the US can build their relationship constructively, citing economic cooperation and a “trade not aid” policy as two avenues to pursue going forward. She also expressed admiration for the progress being made regarding normalizing relations with India vis-à-vis Pakistan giving India a Most Favored Nation status and increased talks between the trade and finance ministries of both countries.

Clinton didn’t mention, however, the strategic deal between India and Afghanistan, one which many are calling “US staged,” as the strategic partnership has put Pakistan on edge. The perception of a containment policy towards Pakistan is high, and Clinton did well to navigate away from this subject.

The complex Indo-Pak relations are rapidly taking on a kind of double life, which above all exposes the different visions of Pakistan’s civilian government and it’s military. On the one hand, Pakistan’s military iterate again and again that their one eye is always on India, and on the other hand the government is charging ahead with economic cooperation initiatives, and the tit-for-tat friendship votes at the UN. Last year Pakistan voted for India to receive a seat on the Security Council, Friday, India returns the favor with a vote for Pakistan as a non-permanent member of the Security Council.

However genial the tone of the public audiences, Clinton was still in Islamabad to bang out a message to her Pakistani counterparts: do more about your border region. The three options that seemed to come from the US delegation were either, a) deal with the Haqqani network aggressively, b) we’ll deal with the Haqqani network aggressively for you, whether you like it or not, or c) bring them to negotiations.

The mention of negotiations with the Haqqanis was a surprise to many because the group has been at the center of such contention. However it may be more like lip-service to the Pakistani All Parties Conference message of “give peace a chance” than an actual belief in the Haqqani network being willing to negotiate, or Pakistan being able to bring them into negotiations.

Another party unsure about Pakistan’s ability to get negotiations underway with militant networks came from the so-called “Radio Mullah” Maulana Fazlullah. Fazlullah took the opportunity of the US delegation in Pakistan to declare ‘war’ on Pakistan. The Afghan-based Taliban leader was previously entrenched in the Swat region of northern Pakistan before fleeing in 2009 after a military offensive. He vowed to return to his former stronghold to “get Sharia implemented in the Malakand region and rest of Pakistan.”
What the Talks Accomplished

Press conferences after the high-level talks were held were full of meaningless phrases like “broadened understanding,” which signifies for all intents and purposes no real solutions were agreed upon or problems solved in the meetings. This is more or less expected, given that both sides are quite clear in stating their differences of opinion, and neither seems willing or able to change stance. Pakistan is still averse to enter into military engagement in North Waziristan, and the US still feels adamantly that they should.

This is not to say that nothing has changed due to the two-day visit. There was a clear effort to bring Pakistan back into the fold as far as the Afghan situation is concerned. Previously the US had slighted both Pakistan and Afghanistan by pursuing negotiations with the Taliban independent of both nations. While in Kabul on Wednesday, Clinton reaffirmed that the US wanted to reboot peace talks and negotiations including Afghanistan and Pakistan in the mix. She reiterated that Pakistan ‘must be part of the solution’ in Afghanistan.

On a broader level, it was very evident that the coming election year in the US was weighing on Clinton’s mind. A number of times she made reference to US domestic politics tying her hands in many regards toward Pakistan, particularly in regards to trade and emergency aid for this year’s bout of floods.

The looming presidential election may have played into the decision to placate Pakistan with smiles and an amiable demeanor, as President Obama will need as much calm and good news on the Af-Pak front as he can get during the lead up to the presidential race.

Pakistan Unmoved

Interestingly, Pakistan appears to be unmoved by the show of goodwill from the Secretary of State. Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, reportedly asked the US delegation to respect the sentiments present in the All Party Conference resolution that stressed a peaceful solution to the Afghan conflict, through dialogue.

Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar was even more barefaced in outlining the manifest differences between the two countries. In a joint press conference with Clinton, she rebuffed the US assertion, whether official or not, that Pakistan has been knowingly supporting safe havens in its territory: “There is no question of any support by any Pakistani institutions to safe havens in Pakistan,” she said. “Let me be unequivocal and completely clear about that.”

She further added, in a veiled reference to the high cost of the US strategic partnership, that she takes the threat of terrorism “very, very seriously because we live with this threat on a daily basis; we live with this threat on an hourly basis.”

It appears Pakistan has set out to make it plain to the US that it is, after all a sovereign nation with national interests not always congruent to those of the US, which the US must respect.

The Long Road Ahead

Pakistan and the US know that the region at large is as important as Afghanistan itself for securing a lasting peace in Afghanistan. Most importantly, neighbors Iran and Pakistan.

In this light, Pakistan takes on even greater importance for the US, because there is little if any hope for any sort of help from Iran when the US is involved.

This in turn makes Pakistan more nervous, because they know that the US doesn’t feel it can rely on them to do as asked, so the other card they can play on is India. Already the increased Indian involvement in Afghanistan, as mentioned, has ratcheted up concern in Pakistan, despite ongoing efforts to improve relations between the countries.

It is a knife-edge kind of game for Pakistan, because they are attempting to assert themselves, but at the same time they realize that if the US perception about Pakistan deteriorates further, to the point where they no longer feel the relationship is productive then US support for Indian involvement would likely escalate. However, US very well knows that there can be no permanent solution to Afghanistan minus its two neighbors.

As one audience member at the Clinton talks aptly put it, the “US is like a mother-in-law which is just not satisfied with us.”

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According to reports, US troops have begun to mass near the Pakistani border of North Waziristan. Tribal elder Malik Muhamma Mumtaq stated that US fighter aircrafts could be seen flying over the tribal belt. Washington has stepped up its drone attacks in Waziristan since last week; four airstrikes have been reported in the region killing nearly ten people, including three foreign militants, believed to be connected to the Haqqani group. According to media reports, Obama’s government has not yet decided to conduct a ground raid against the group, similar to the one which killed Osama bin Laden. However it has been left on the table as an option. These developments have raised concerns amongst the local tribesmen.

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