Context

Pakistan has finally resumed the NATO Afghan supply lines after a hiatus of about seven months, with US rendering a sorry. The opening of these routes followed some ominous developments. While most of the discussion around the issue of supply lines portrays it as a matter principally between Pakistan, US, and Afghanistan, the debate fails to account for the larger geopolitical dynamics. PoliTact has consistently maintained the politics of the neighboring region of Middle East will define the shape of politics and alliances in the South and Central Asia.

Analysis

What Lead To The Opening Of Supply Lines?

Three unprecedented events that may have led up to the decision by Pakistan to resume the Nato Afghan supply lines. First the opening of the supply lines took place at a time when Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to western sanctions against its oil exports. The sanctions went in to effect on July 1st. While Iran has not deployed that option as of now, US has asserted such an action will be taken as a declaration of war. Iran, on the other hand, just concluded a missile exercise that projects Iranian response to any attack on its nuclear installations. The nation claims it has the capability to pretty much wipe out US bases in the region, and that its naval ships in the region are sitting ducks.

In this context, the deployment of Carrier Strike Group (CSG) USS Enterprise in the territorial waters of Pakistan near Gawadar is especially noteworthy. According to media reports, the aircraft carrier was moved there in the second week of June, carrying over 4000 marines and 80 fighter jets. The surveillance system of the carrier covers over 1000 kilometers, which puts most of Pakistan in its range. Enterprise is replacing CSG Abraham Lincoln that was located near the Iranian territorial waters previously and was then moved to the Persian Gulf, passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The placement of these carriers suggests that US is preparing contingencies for a number of regional scenarios that can play out in the near future.

The second event was the introduction of a bill in the House of Representatives last Thursday, urging President Obama to declare Haqqani network a terrorist organization. The designation will make provision of any support to the organization unlawful. The bill was initiated by the House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers; Buck McKeon, Chairman of House Armed Services Committee and Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of the Foreign Affairs Committee.
The initiation of the bill was widely seen as applying pressure on Pakistan to open the NATO Afghan supply lines.

The deportation of Abu Jundal (Sayed Zabiuddin Ansari) by Saudi Arabia to India, for his involvement in the Mumbai incident, is the third consequential occurring. His expulsion and arrest is believed to be deeply embarrassing for Pakistan and points to the sea change in its traditional good relations with Saudi Arabia. It is potentially an outcome of Pakistan insistence on continuing the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project and energy dealings with Iran. While US recently exempted India, and even China, from its oil sanctions on Iran, Pakistan so far has not been.

Emerging Alliances Of Middle East And AfPak

On the other hand, the study of the emerging alignments of Middle East indicates that NATO and GCC countries are acting in unison while Russian and China are continuing to oppose military action against Iran and intervention in Syria. The matters have worsened to such an extent that both Russia and China boycotted the Paris meeting of the Friends of Syria. In reaction, Hilary Clinton stated that there should be a price for the positions China and Russia are taking in support of Assad’s regime. Meanwhile, the Friends of Syria agreed to hugely increase support for the rebels. There are also indications that the Syrian’s had shot down the Turkish fighter jet on June 22 using a Russian anti-air Pantsyr-1 missile, which were recently supplied to it. In short, the gloves may be coming off as far as the situation of Syria is concerned.

With Muslim Brotherhood at the helms of power, Egypt has emerged as an unknown factor in these emerging alliances. The Gulf countries are especially worried what Muslim Brotherhood inspired revolutions can do in their own backyards. To prevent this, attempts are already underway by GCC countries and Turkey to bring Egypt on board.

In the case of South Asia, the alignment is more like NATO, Afghanistan and India, with Pakistan being the unknown. If and when hostilities break out in the Persian Gulf, Pakistan’s relations with Iran will take on an added emphasis. Moreover, what happens in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which have US presence, will be equally critical for Iran. This is where the matter of NATO’s Afghan supply lines becomes quite complex.

If Iran is attacked, the bases of Afghanistan are likely to be used as well. The downing of US stealth drone RQ 170 near the Iranian border with Afghanistan had already raised such a prospect. However, Pakistan will be seen as allowing supplies for NATO forces that are waging an attack on a state that is friendly towards it. In such an eventuality, Pakistan’s posture is bound to raise the suspicion of Iran, China and Russia.

Strikes on Iran can also cause sympathy of the Afghan Shiite population to rise in favor of the country and against NATO forces. This could put it in the worse possible position, under attack from Taliban and the forces that have usually been cooperative with the coalition forces. On the other hand, the increasing Sunni-Shiite tussles in the region assist in mitigating such an outcome.

As the Chinese and Russian position grow harder against intervention in Syria or military action against Iran, Pakistan will face the pressures to clarify its position. Although India started off being neutral initially, it has gradually moved closer to the NATO-GCC alliance. From how it looks now, Pakistan will have to decide between the NATO-GCC alliance on the one hand and the China, Russia, and Iran on the other. And, in this respect the future of Iran and Syrian conflict may also dictate events in the AfPak region.

The post NATO Afghan Supply Lines And Iran appeared first on Politact.

He welcomed Pakistan’s decision to reopen the routes without any additional charge and said it will further restore Pakistan-US relations. However, his comments contradict statements in Pakistan’s media that indicated the nation desires to rewrite most of the previous agreements with the US.

The post US; No New Agreement Needed On Supply Routes appeared first on Politact.

Context

US-Pakistan relations are entering an especially peculiar period, depending on the course taken, the consequences could be quite significant. As a result of the Salala incident last November, Pakistan suspended NATO’s Afghan supply lines and initiated an extensive parliamentary review of its ties with the US. The country has ever since demanded a formal apology for the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers and cessation of the drone attacks. However, US actions demonstrate that it is planning to do neither.

Meanwhile, American political, economic and military pressure on Pakistan to resume the supply lines is mounting as the NATO Chicago summit approaches. As a protest against the Mohmand tragedy, Pakistan had boycotted the Bonn Conference as well.

This alert looks at the risks if Pakistan decides to resume the NATO supply lines at this juncture.

Analysis

The matter of the resumption of NATO Afghan supply lines needs to looked at in the broader context of how Pakistan’s foreign policy performs against its public opinion. There are principally two schools of thought on the nation’s involvement and policy over the war against extremists.

The liberal school of thought maintains that the drone attacks are productive as they eliminate those threats that are otherwise hard to reach, and against which, Pakistan’s security apparatus has proven to be largely ineffective. People in this category also believe that US withdrawal from Afghanistan is going to make matter worse in the region, as extremists attempt to reinforce their worldview on the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. For these reasons, liberals are sympathetic towards opening the NATO supply lines for Afghanistan. Liberals also want to expand trade and economic ties with India.

On the other hand, the nationalist and conservative forces see most of Pakistan’s present problems linked to the presence of NATO forces in Afghanistan. The sooner the coalition forces leave, they contend, the situation in FATA and Pakistan is likely to improve considerably. They view the drone strikes as creating an extremist blow back, and opine that Pakistan should exit from its partnership with the US on the war against terror. These forces are largely against the resumption of NATO supply routes and for improving ties with India without resolution of core issues such as Kashmir.

In case the supply lines are resumed, the reaction is likely to be in the form of peaceful street protests initially, however the demonstration could be hijacked by more extreme groups, turning them in to a violent movement. The newly formed Pakistan Defense Council (PDC), a conglomerate of banned militant groups and religious organizations, has threatened the government incase it decides to open the supply routes. Moreover, the Al Qaeda and Taliban are likely to jump in and exploit the ensuing chaos.

Many believe that these nationalist and conservative forces are controlled by Pakistan’s intelligence organizations. It will be intriguing to watch the reaction from these groups once the supply lines actually resume, to conform or deny this supposition.

Nonetheless, poor governance, rampant corruption, deteriorating law and order situation, and ethnic tensions make the situation particularly volatile in Pakistan. Opening of the NATO supply lines could prove to be the stimulus that leads to wide spread disturbances, producing a civil war like situation. In the background of how quickly events turned from bad to worse in Libya and Syria, this is not that far fetched of an outcome. The recent cases in the Arab world have proven that streets that had been docile for years can be quickly galvanized by unexpected events, with catastrophic results.

The Raymond Davis incident, Osama operation, Memogate affair and the Salala incident, have all raised a question mark regarding the diligence of Pakistan’s establishment. In the absence of a formal apology and continuation of the drone strikes, the credibility of the government will be further eroded. It is in the interest of US and Pakistan to disclose the nature of the give and take that occurred privately, for the public benefit and to protect against adverse outcomes.

The post Resumption Of NATO Afghan Supply Lines, Implications For Pakistan appeared first on Politact.