Context

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Syria and Turkey last week with a bevy of discussion topics on the agenda. From Iran to the Middle East Peace Process, Moscow is signaling to the Middle East, and the region at large, that it is serious about taking a leading role in the future of the region.

This Vantage Point Analysis takes a closer at the changing balance of power in Middle East and how the Russians envision their role in the region. This article also provides clues to understanding potential Russian engagement in other regions, for example the Af-Pak Theater.

Analysis

Syria played host to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the May 10, two day visit. While Russia and Syria were previously close allies and formed a very important partnership in the region, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a period of retrenchment for both countries during the ’90s, the relationship diminished somewhat. In recent years the bilateral relationship has been regaining some of its polish, with the visit by Medvedev an important signal that the two countries are well on the way to a new, firm strategic partnership.

The visit comes just days after the US renewed its sanctions regime against Syria because of Syria’s alleged “continuing support for terrorist organizations and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and missile programs,[which]continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy and economy of the United States.” US President Obama said on the May 3 in a press conference about the sanctions.

The US and Israel are concerned that the Russian high-level visit is sending a tacit signal of approval to Syria, who will feel emboldened by the Russian show of support in the face of the recent sanctions. Israel is especially concerned about the Russian visit, and keen to know if there will be any more arms deals between the two countries. Israel has previously accused the Syrians of passing on weapons acquired in Russian arms deals to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a claim which Syria denies. This will likely dampen the possibility of renewed armament deals, especially as Israel has also accused Syria of intending to pass on weapons to Iran as well.

Russian sentiment during the visit is overwhelmingly that Russia is ‘a friend to all’. Medvedev met with exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal during his visit, and at the same time promised to ‘send a message’ from Israel to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad to try and ease the tensions between the two states: whether he actually did or not is still unclear.

The Russian visit is also a signal that Russia is looking to boost its status as a moderator and mediator in the region, with Medvedev stating his concern that “Tensions in the Middle East threaten to lead to a new explosion or even a catastrophe.” Russia is perhaps trying to show itself as the ‘unbiased’ mediator, in contrast to the perceived Israel-bias of the US when it comes to the Middle East Peace Process.

The Russian President continued his overseas tour with a trip to Turkey, where business was on the agenda. Medvedev stated that “We can confidently say that Russian-Turkish relations have advanced to the level of a multidimensional strategic partnership,” which was actualized by the signing of a visa-free agreement between citizens of the two countries. The 2 million+ Russians who visit Turkey every year as tourists will be very pleased with that particular dimension of the multidimensional partnership.

Russia and Turkey share a mutual vision to some extent as far as their roles in the Middle East are concerned, with Turkey renewing overtures to moderate peace talks between Israel and Syria. The feeling is that Turkish-Russian relations are much more mutually beneficial, and less benefactor/beneficiary than those of Russia and Syria, despite how Syria would protest this statement.

Energy played a key role in the Turkish and Russian talks, with the proposed Blue Stream-2 and South Stream gas pipelines discussed, as well as the possibility of a Russian-built nuclear power plant on Turkish soil.

It is overwhelmingly clear that Russia is positioning herself as the ‘Great Friend’ in the Middle East neighborhood. Russia is doing a good job of being friends with everybody, even those who have unbridled antagonism towards one another, like Israel and Syria-how long Russia can continue pull this off is yet to be seen.

Russian statements also make it clear that Syria is considered a pivotal country in the success of the Middle East Peace Process. Russia’s playing down of weapons deals, and the keen interest in joint economic activity may be a ploy to pry Syria open economically, into the open-market economics that Russia has embraced. Economic openness is often a precursor to political openness and moderation, but then again, Russia is not overly concerned with the types of polities it does business with, so long as business is beneficial.

The relationship of both Syria and Russia with Iran was also under scrutiny during the visit. Many thought that Syria’s Assad would use the visit to try and convince Medvedev to block the planned fourth round of Iranian sanctions in the Security Council: sanctions which Russia as it is seems reluctant to endorse. This is perhaps due to the fact that a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Bushehr in Iran is set to be completed this year. While the power plant was endorsed by the US because it would mitigate the need for Iran to continue with uranium enrichment programs, this has not been the case in reality, so the sanctions are being tightened.

As Russia seems to want to take a leading role in the neighborhood of the Middle East, it is also positioning for a role in the Af-Pak region.

Russia and Pakistan have a rollercoaster relationship, with relations at their sourest during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, and the cozy bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union at this time. Irked by the American criticism, Karzai has recently made a number of overtures towards the Russians, a scene reminding the players of the cold war days. India also stands disillusioned by the new US Af-Pak strategy, which has caused it to strive for closer Indo-Russian ties once again.

Russia and Pakistan seem to skirt around their possibly strong bilateral relationships-on Pakistan’s end, perhaps this is in fear of upsetting allies in Washington. On Russia’s end perhaps they are biding their time until the US withdraws from Afghanistan. Then they can have free reign to play the ‘Great Friend’ and benefactor role in this region, as it is showing overtures to want to play in the Middle East. Russia, like China, has shown a keen interest in Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project.

Soon after Medvedev’s visit to the region came the joint declaration yesterday by Iran, Turkey and Brazil on the signing of the Nuclear Swap Agreement. This development has caught everyone by surprise. PoliTact will be examining the ramifications of this development.

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Context

The Qaddafi regime has fallen, but the fight for Libya is just heating up. In the aftermath of the Libyan rebellion the National Transitional Council is claiming tentative control however the struggle for power in Libya is far from over. European powers are also vying for influence in the post Qaddafi era, with oil assets and billions of dollars of frozen Libyan assets further complicating the mix. On a broader level, today’s resemblance to WWII Middle East politics is unmistakable, especially as we are moments away from seeing a Palestinian State made official at the United Nations.

It is worth watching the relations of former Mandate and colonial powers, such as those of Italy with Libya, Britain with Egypt or France with Tunisia and Syria. Additionally, the relations of the European powers with each other are once again going to play a critical role, as will the tussles of the emerging and established players.

Analysis

The Colonial Experience

Libya, as with many of her fellow states in the Middle East has long been held sway by a patrimonial system of leadership that upheld a feeble state system, bolstered by a bloated coercive arm. In Libya, the coercive arm of the state has been overpowered by a popular uprising, leaving the weak state apparatus to crumble in its wake. In contrast, the Egyptian uprising only managed to topple a figurehead, with the coercive apparatus of the state now more powerful than ever.

This patrimonial system which has formed such an entrenched part of Middle Eastern statehood is what is now under fire across the Arab world, with the “Arab Spring” uprisings all aimed at breaking the strong-man system of rule. However, the history of state-making in the Middle East points at a more complex process than simply instituting democratic rule to replace an autocratic one. One major problems, is that the civilian population in much of the Middle East has been disenfranchised from informing and contributing to its own political infrastructure and thus lack the political culture and experience needed to support democracy.

The present day system stems specifically from the post-World-War-II system of states that was created to replace the European Mandates in Middle Eastern countries. Under the Ottoman Empire, local authorities were allowed to remain as regional leaders (beys) under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire. Ottoman laws and institutions were imposed in a top-down manner, and the network of elite families and notables that collected around the Ottoman beys, form the basis of the ruling class in the Arab world today. These networks survived and indeed flourished in the Mandate controlled Middle East, and after the Mandate system was replaced by sovereign states. The upshot of this history is that the population has not developed a sense of belonging to a state, because the state is an imposed structure that has no organic origins, unlike the many hundreds or years it took Europe to develop the nation-state system.

The Emerging Scenario

What we now see in Libya and in other countries affected by the Arab Spring is the population attempting to participate in the formation of a state to which there is some connection, where the state is no longer just a representative of a privileged elite, rather than the population as a whole.

This is a huge task, given that there are large divides and factions within the Libyan population, and there is also the problem of Libyan assets that are attracting outside attention now that the opportunity presents itself for interested parties to claim a piece of the post-Qaddafi pie.

Just like the discovery of oil in the Gulf changed the politics of the Middle East post World-War-II, so too do Libya’s oil assets set it apart from its neighbors in the Arab Spring. Many see that Libya’s oil and natural gas are the defining reasons why European forces entered the country under UN mandate to impose a no-fly zone. Russia has accused NATO a number of times to have gone beyond the mandate of UN resolution 1979.

With Italy one of Libya’s main energy export markets as well as being a former colonial power in Libya, it is likely we will start to see tussles between European powers vying for oil and gas contracts as well as political influence as the NTC tries to establish a representative government. While European and Arab countries have taken the lead in recognizing the NTC as the sole legitimate representative of Libya, Russia, China and African Union have been reluctant.

Speaking at a press conference in San Salvador on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that his country would not recognize the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the sole legitimate representative of Libya. However, Russia would recognize the NTC as one of the parties in the talks. Lavrov stressed Russia’s commitment to support the political process in Libya. He asserted that “The Russian and Libyan peoples have traditions of friendship, years-long interaction, and we shall continue to act in this vein in the future as well.”
Meanwhile, China has announced that it wishes to promote cooperation and trade relations with Libya following the downfall of the Kaddafi regime. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in a phone call on Tuesday, that his country hoped to play an active role in rebuilding Libya. He also urged the United Nations to lead international efforts in the North African country to ensure a stable transition of power and to strengthen coordination and cooperation with the African Union and Arab League.

On the other hand, France has maintained diplomatic initiative with Libya following the imminent demise of the Qaddafi regime, with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé calling for an immediate ceasefire. France also committed itself to hosting an international meeting of the Libya contact group in Paris next week. The group includes the United States, Britain, Arab states such as Qatar as well as the United Nations and Arab League. Mahmoud Jibril, leader of Libya’s National Transitional Council was also invited to Paris by the French President to discuss Libya’s future. Sarkozy was one of the first world leaders to recognize the rebels and to call for Qaddafi to step down.

European powers may not have a carte-blanche to carve up the Middle East as they did under the Mandate system, however as the political landscape in the region deteriorates, it sets up a scenario where “special” relationships with former colonial powers may be renewed to sure-up positions of power by authorities in the Middle East, or to increase influence in times of flux by the Europeans. In any case, it is worth watching the relations of former Mandate and colonial powers, such as those of Italy with Libya, Britain with Egypt or France with Tunisia and Syria. Additionally, the relations of the European powers with each other are once again going to play a critical role, and so is the politics of the emerging and established players.

The task now for Libya is to try and defy historical trends by creating a sovereign state that the population actually relates to and feels ownership over. This is an extremely tall order, given that tribal allegiances are competing with political allegiances. This is further compounded by a sudden vacuum of coercive power and no overly strong personality coming to the fore able to rally the population into a semblance of unity. There is a very strong possibility that a protracted tribal civil war is on the horizon for Libya.

What Is Next?

Since Qaddafi’s was ousted, many are asking who will be next to fall in the Arab Spring? Syria’s Assad is a likely candidate, which could propel the region’s other simmering conflict, the Israel-Palestine situation, into more heated territory. The question of who will succeed the toppled leaders is a huge weight in Israeli politics, as the “devil you know” has served Israel well in relation to both Egypt and Syria. Already the situation on the Egyptian border with Israel is deteriorating and the removal of Assad is probably unacceptable to Iran.

These worries come on the back of the likely declaration of Palestinian statehood at the UN, which is due to go to vote in September. If the Arab-Israeli conflict heats up again, it is plausible that the US may be dragged into the conflict, especially if the resulting authorities in Israel’s neighboring countries are overwhelmingly anti-Israel.

The most interesting development in this regard came last week when China announced its support for Palestine’s United Nations Statehood bid in September. The declaration came on Thursday during a meeting between Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, Wu Sike and Palestinian leaders in Ramallah. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wu assured the Palestinian people of Beijing’s support for the Palestinian bid.

Clearly, Russia, China and US are not on the same wavelength when it comes to the future of Middle East and the Arab world. Each player is trying to shape the Arab and Muslim world in a fashion that best served their respective purposes and interests, and the struggle is far from over.

The post The Struggle for New Balance Of Power In Libya and Middle East appeared first on Politact.

Analysts believe that the holy month of Ramadan will determine the fate of Arab uprising. With less than 10 days until the beginning of Ramadan, both governments and opposition leaders are wondering whether it will pass peacefully as thirsty and hungry people avoid the crowded streets or bring a surge in protests incited by religious zeal. With the uprising entering its seventh month, the Islamic month of fasting, piety and prayer may either breathe new life into the wave of revolt or bring it to a halt. However, most observers believe that Ramadan is likely to heat up the situation- but only after dusk.

The post Ramadan Holds Key to Arab Uprising appeared first on Politact.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague met his Saudi Arabian counterpart Prince Saud al-Faisal in Jeddah on Wednesday to discuss hotspots in the Middle East and North Africa including Syria and Libya. “At a time of great upheaval and change in the region, our constructive cooperation on regional issues including Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Iran, and the Middle East peace process, is even more critical,” Hague said during a joint press conference with Prince Saud. He also stressed the need for resolving the long-standing Arab-Israeli conflict, saying, “Prince Saud and I agree, I think, that the unfolding events in the region show the need for meaningful negotiation.”

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Context
President Obama’s Middle East policy speech on Thursday has drawn mixed responses from people and governments across the region. Some Arab commentators view the president’s promise of supporting the blossoming democracies in Tunisia and Egypt as well as the efforts he had made to impose sanctions on Syria’s President Bashar Assad as a positive change in American foreign policy. Others, however, believe that his address reflected the same old approach of backing a favored ruler until it becomes obvious that he is losing control. As far as Obama’s call for a negotiated peace solution based on the 1967 borders is concerned, the proposal was rejected by Israel while the Palestinian leadership said it would hold talks to discuss the American president’s policy speech.

The post Obama’s Mideast Policy Speech Gets Mixed Reviews appeared first on Politact.

Context

George Mitchell, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, has decided to step down after over two years of attempting to press the Palestinians and Israelis into talks, according to US officials. The White House on Friday announced that the ex-senator and mediator of the Northern Island peace agreement was resigning due to personal reasons. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has asked Mitchell’s deputy David Hale to serve as acting envoy.

The resignation has come at a time when President Obama is reportedly preparing for a major Middle East policy speech. According to US officials, the elimination of Osama bin Laden represents a unique opportunity to shape the narrative and perceptions of the Arab and the Islamic world, against the Al Qaeda led extremist forces. As the Arab world goes through public revolts, there are fears that extremists may try to exploit the chaos and vacuum, which results as long-time autocrats become weak or depart.

As PoliTact has previously noted, with the Middle East peace process deadlocked, the relations of US with the Islamic world continue to deteriorate. The list in the past had included Iran, and now is growing to incorporate Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Furthermore, in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan, Libya has been added to the list of countries with active Western led military interventions.

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Context

The thirteenth consultative summit of the heads of GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) commenced in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Tuesday. Major political developments taking place in the region, including the tense ties between Iran and the GCC will be on top of the agenda at the summit. The summit will also consider possible ways to resolve the conflicts in a number of nations within the region, particularly Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. The GCC is an economic and political alliance made up of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait.

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Context
According to US media a transformation of attitude towards violence occurring in Middle East. A few years ago, the Arab World may have reacted to the death of Osama bin Laden with rage at the US. However, with the Middle East shaken by mostly nonviolent popular uprisings, the reaction to his killing has been muted- an indication that change is sweeping the region. For the new generation, the Tunisian young man who sparked a revolution by setting fire to himself is a better role model than Osama, whose concept of jihad and martyrdom has been taken over by more usual aspirations like good governance, free elections and end to corruption. However, despite the apparent change, the region is still home to some powerful extremist elements with an ability to inflict severe devastation, even with a relatively few followers.

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Turkey is concerned over the escalating crisis in adjacent Syria, where armed forces’ brutal crackdown against anti-government protestors is threatening to attract a wave of refugees from the other side of the border, according to Turkish officials. “Syria is the top priority for us,” said a high-ranking Turkish Foreign Ministry official. “We have already taken measures considering all sorts of scenarios, including massive migration and other potential complications,” he added. Turkish ambassador to Syria, Omur Onhon, is on a routine visit to Ankara for consultation, according to sources, adding that Mr. Onhon has recently held a meeting with Syria’s newly elected Prime Minister Adel Safar and will inform Ankara about that discussion.

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Conntext
According to Israeli Analysts, just like neighboring Iraq, diverse sects in Syria could turn against each other in case dictator Bashar Assad’s regime is toppled. Though Assad’s ouster isn’t yet imminent, in case it does happen, a bloody civil war between the country’s diverse population- consisting of Sunnis, Kurds, Druse and several other groups that are ruled by minority Alawites- is likely.

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