Context

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Syria and Turkey last week with a bevy of discussion topics on the agenda. From Iran to the Middle East Peace Process, Moscow is signaling to the Middle East, and the region at large, that it is serious about taking a leading role in the future of the region.

This Vantage Point Analysis takes a closer at the changing balance of power in Middle East and how the Russians envision their role in the region. This article also provides clues to understanding potential Russian engagement in other regions, for example the Af-Pak Theater.

Analysis

Syria played host to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the May 10, two day visit. While Russia and Syria were previously close allies and formed a very important partnership in the region, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a period of retrenchment for both countries during the ’90s, the relationship diminished somewhat. In recent years the bilateral relationship has been regaining some of its polish, with the visit by Medvedev an important signal that the two countries are well on the way to a new, firm strategic partnership.

The visit comes just days after the US renewed its sanctions regime against Syria because of Syria’s alleged “continuing support for terrorist organizations and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and missile programs,[which]continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy and economy of the United States.” US President Obama said on the May 3 in a press conference about the sanctions.

The US and Israel are concerned that the Russian high-level visit is sending a tacit signal of approval to Syria, who will feel emboldened by the Russian show of support in the face of the recent sanctions. Israel is especially concerned about the Russian visit, and keen to know if there will be any more arms deals between the two countries. Israel has previously accused the Syrians of passing on weapons acquired in Russian arms deals to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a claim which Syria denies. This will likely dampen the possibility of renewed armament deals, especially as Israel has also accused Syria of intending to pass on weapons to Iran as well.

Russian sentiment during the visit is overwhelmingly that Russia is ‘a friend to all’. Medvedev met with exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal during his visit, and at the same time promised to ‘send a message’ from Israel to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad to try and ease the tensions between the two states: whether he actually did or not is still unclear.

The Russian visit is also a signal that Russia is looking to boost its status as a moderator and mediator in the region, with Medvedev stating his concern that “Tensions in the Middle East threaten to lead to a new explosion or even a catastrophe.” Russia is perhaps trying to show itself as the ‘unbiased’ mediator, in contrast to the perceived Israel-bias of the US when it comes to the Middle East Peace Process.

The Russian President continued his overseas tour with a trip to Turkey, where business was on the agenda. Medvedev stated that “We can confidently say that Russian-Turkish relations have advanced to the level of a multidimensional strategic partnership,” which was actualized by the signing of a visa-free agreement between citizens of the two countries. The 2 million+ Russians who visit Turkey every year as tourists will be very pleased with that particular dimension of the multidimensional partnership.

Russia and Turkey share a mutual vision to some extent as far as their roles in the Middle East are concerned, with Turkey renewing overtures to moderate peace talks between Israel and Syria. The feeling is that Turkish-Russian relations are much more mutually beneficial, and less benefactor/beneficiary than those of Russia and Syria, despite how Syria would protest this statement.

Energy played a key role in the Turkish and Russian talks, with the proposed Blue Stream-2 and South Stream gas pipelines discussed, as well as the possibility of a Russian-built nuclear power plant on Turkish soil.

It is overwhelmingly clear that Russia is positioning herself as the ‘Great Friend’ in the Middle East neighborhood. Russia is doing a good job of being friends with everybody, even those who have unbridled antagonism towards one another, like Israel and Syria-how long Russia can continue pull this off is yet to be seen.

Russian statements also make it clear that Syria is considered a pivotal country in the success of the Middle East Peace Process. Russia’s playing down of weapons deals, and the keen interest in joint economic activity may be a ploy to pry Syria open economically, into the open-market economics that Russia has embraced. Economic openness is often a precursor to political openness and moderation, but then again, Russia is not overly concerned with the types of polities it does business with, so long as business is beneficial.

The relationship of both Syria and Russia with Iran was also under scrutiny during the visit. Many thought that Syria’s Assad would use the visit to try and convince Medvedev to block the planned fourth round of Iranian sanctions in the Security Council: sanctions which Russia as it is seems reluctant to endorse. This is perhaps due to the fact that a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Bushehr in Iran is set to be completed this year. While the power plant was endorsed by the US because it would mitigate the need for Iran to continue with uranium enrichment programs, this has not been the case in reality, so the sanctions are being tightened.

As Russia seems to want to take a leading role in the neighborhood of the Middle East, it is also positioning for a role in the Af-Pak region.

Russia and Pakistan have a rollercoaster relationship, with relations at their sourest during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, and the cozy bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union at this time. Irked by the American criticism, Karzai has recently made a number of overtures towards the Russians, a scene reminding the players of the cold war days. India also stands disillusioned by the new US Af-Pak strategy, which has caused it to strive for closer Indo-Russian ties once again.

Russia and Pakistan seem to skirt around their possibly strong bilateral relationships-on Pakistan’s end, perhaps this is in fear of upsetting allies in Washington. On Russia’s end perhaps they are biding their time until the US withdraws from Afghanistan. Then they can have free reign to play the ‘Great Friend’ and benefactor role in this region, as it is showing overtures to want to play in the Middle East. Russia, like China, has shown a keen interest in Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project.

Soon after Medvedev’s visit to the region came the joint declaration yesterday by Iran, Turkey and Brazil on the signing of the Nuclear Swap Agreement. This development has caught everyone by surprise. PoliTact will be examining the ramifications of this development.

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The post Russian Role in Middle East and South Asia appeared first on Politact.

Credibility of the UN Security Council at Stake

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev paid a visit to the Middle East last week, as reported on previously by PoliTact, but could there have been more on the table with Turkey than just business and energy? After Medvedev left the region, Turkey and Brazil signed a nuclear swap deal with Iran, in a bid to stave off the looming fourth round of UN sanctions with diplomatic measures. Despite the promising negotiations between the emerging powers and Iran, the US has pushed ahead with its bid for sanctions, drafting a resolution with the so-called ‘Iran-Six’: the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany.

While Russia and China are less-than-enthusiastic about the sanctions, they are tacitly towing the line, while waiting for the US to barge on into a hole of its own making. India is perhaps wizening up to the damage it has done in previous years to its relationship with Iran, while Pakistan is once again under blueprints for a number of possible pipelines from Iran to China, and even through to India.

In this Analysis of Perception and Perspective we study how this development has been viewed in different parts of the world and how it has eroded the credibility of the UN Security Council while also providing hints towards the emerging balance of power.

Analysis

Brazil, Turkey and Iran signed a landmark agreement on Monday, for Iran to ship half of its low-enriched nuclear material to Turkey for a swap of higher-enriched nuclear fuel for use in a medical reactor. The deal goes a long way to brokering a new trust between Iran and the international community, but one which may be short-lived given that the US has largely brushed off the deal, and pushed ahead with sanctions anyhow.

The two non-permanent members of the Security Council, Brazil and Turkey are emerging powers in their own right, and have succeeded diplomatically where major world-powers have failed, or not even honestly tried. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called upon the ‘Iran-six’ to enter into talks with Iran, based on “honesty, justice and mutual respect,” in tacit praise of the Brazilian and Turkish efforts, and an unspoken sentiment that previous attempt at diplomacy had been lacking in these three qualities.

There are questions as to whether Russia played a part in encouraging the deal, given that the Russian President was so recently in Turkey, the Iranian situation must certainly have come up for discussion. Russia stands to gain either way with Iran, because if the sanctions go through, the European energy market remains Russian-dominated, and if the Turkey-Brazil deal proves successful, and the US is red-faced, then Russia gains credence simply from the fall in its old rival’s standing.

China is also a somewhat quiet player in the game, with the Chinese ambassador at the UN, Li Badong commenting after Hilary Clinton announced the draft resolution for a fourth round of sanction that this “did not close the doors on diplomacy”, placing emphasis on employing “dialogue, diplomacy and negotiations” over exerting political muscle.

Some have speculated whether China and Russia are towing the line simply to watch the US blunder on into a political quagmire over the Iran sanctions, and it appears to be working, given the conflicting sentiments coming out of Washington with regards to Iran. The US may be working largely to its own discredit, with prominent media outlets framing the diplomatic solution between Iran, Brazil and Turkey as “complicating sanctions talks” (the Times) and creating the “illusion of progress in nuclear negotiations” (the Washington Post). Calling a practical, workable and moderate deal brokered between sovereign nations an ‘illusion’ may well come back to bite those in the US who hold this line, especially since there is growing disgruntlement in many countries over the perceived ‘we lead, you follow’ practices of the US. The fact that there are five nuclear armed members of the Security Council sanctioning a sovereign nation for developing nuclear reactors has not escaped the notice of many, nor has it escaped comparison with the fictitious WMD hunt that spawned the Iraq invasion. This situation is at best ironic, at worst the ‘Archduke Ferdinand’ of modern politics.

With Iran showing all signs of willingness to negotiate, at least giving the this impression, the US’s perseverance with sanctions appears more like it has nothing to do with nuclear proliferation, and everything to do with making a new monster in the Middle East.

Meanwhile in the Af-Pak region, India seems to have awoken to the fact that it’s blind following of US sentiment on Iran has done considerable damage to its relationship with the energy-rich country. Turkey and Brazil’s unilateral stance regarding Iran has shown India that emerging powers can successfully play a part in the world stage, and do so in opposition to the US line, without actually damaging their own relations with the US. Perhaps this is why the Indian government has sent two ministers to Tehran this year, the latest just this week as External Affairs Minister SM Krishna pays a visit to Iran.

Negotiation on the long-disputed trans-Pakistan pipelines from Iran to India may again be on the table, even just as a way for India to make overtures of renewed friendship with Iran. Pakistan is of course even less able to guarantee the safe delivery of oil or gas across its borders than in previous years, and with trilateral negotiations not an option, the actual construction of a pipeline seems a distance possibility, and more a front to open discussions between countries. The Chinese have a better chance of seeing their proposed pipeline from Iran through Pakistan and into Xinjiang province coming to fruition, but the worsening internal situation in Pakistan is likely to halt even this development.

While the Iranian sanctions are not likely to reach approval in the Security Council–especially given that Turkey and Brazil are current non-permanent members, and have worked so hard to establish an alternative solution–the interesting development to come out of the Iranian happenings this week is that emerging powers are proving that they can accomplish much in the way of diplomacy on their own feet. And they seem to be better at it than the heavy-handed US.

The US stands in a precarious position, especially if its push for the implementation of sanctions derails in any way the agreement made between Turkey, Brazil and Iran-they are on the balance of perception between being the harbinger of diplomacy, or the destroyer of it.

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The post Evolving Iranian Entanglements – Turkey, Brazil and Iran Sign Nuclear Swap Deal appeared first on Politact.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Syria and Turkey last week with a bevy of discussion topics on the agenda. From Iran to the Middle East Peace Process, Moscow is signaling to the Middle East, and the region at large, that it is serious about taking a leading role in the future of the region.

This Vantage Point Analysis takes a closer at the changing balance of power in Middle East and how the Russians envision their role in the region. This article also provides clues to understanding potential Russian engagement in other regions, for example the Af-Pak Theater.

Analysis

Syria played host to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the May 10, two day visit. While Russia and Syria were previously close allies and formed a very important partnership in the region, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a period of retrenchment for both countries during the ’90s, the relationship diminished somewhat. In recent years the bilateral relationship has been regaining some of its polish, with the visit by Medvedev an important signal that the two countries are well on the way to a new, firm strategic partnership.

The visit comes just days after the US renewed its sanctions regime against Syria because of Syria’s alleged “continuing support for terrorist organizations and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and missile programs,[which]continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy and economy of the United States.” US President Obama said on the May 3 in a press conference about the sanctions.

The US and Israel are concerned that the Russian high-level visit is sending a tacit signal of approval to Syria, who will feel emboldened by the Russian show of support in the face of the recent sanctions. Israel is especially concerned about the Russian visit, and keen to know if there will be any more arms deals between the two countries. Israel has previously accused the Syrians of passing on weapons acquired in Russian arms deals to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a claim which Syria denies. This will likely dampen the possibility of renewed armament deals, especially as Israel has also accused Syria of intending to pass on weapons to Iran as well.

Russian sentiment during the visit is overwhelmingly that Russia is ‘a friend to all’. Medvedev met with exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal during his visit, and at the same time promised to ‘send a message’ from Israel to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad to try and ease the tensions between the two states: whether he actually did or not is still unclear.

The Russian visit is also a signal that Russia is looking to boost its status as a moderator and mediator in the region, with Medvedev stating his concern that “Tensions in the Middle East threaten to lead to a new explosion or even a catastrophe.” Russia is perhaps trying to show itself as the ‘unbiased’ mediator, in contrast to the perceived Israel-bias of the US when it comes to the Middle East Peace Process.

The Russian President continued his overseas tour with a trip to Turkey, where business was on the agenda. Medvedev stated that “We can confidently say that Russian-Turkish relations have advanced to the level of a multidimensional strategic partnership,” which was actualized by the signing of a visa-free agreement between citizens of the two countries. The 2 million+ Russians who visit Turkey every year as tourists will be very pleased with that particular dimension of the multidimensional partnership.

Russia and Turkey share a mutual vision to some extent as far as their roles in the Middle East are concerned, with Turkey renewing overtures to moderate peace talks between Israel and Syria. The feeling is that Turkish-Russian relations are much more mutually beneficial, and less benefactor/beneficiary than those of Russia and Syria, despite how Syria would protest this statement.

Energy played a key role in the Turkish and Russian talks, with the proposed Blue Stream-2 and South Stream gas pipelines discussed, as well as the possibility of a Russian-built nuclear power plant on Turkish soil.

It is overwhelmingly clear that Russia is positioning herself as the ‘Great Friend’ in the Middle East neighborhood. Russia is doing a good job of being friends with everybody, even those who have unbridled antagonism towards one another, like Israel and Syria-how long Russia can continue pull this off is yet to be seen.

Russian statements also make it clear that Syria is considered a pivotal country in the success of the Middle East Peace Process. Russia’s playing down of weapons deals, and the keen interest in joint economic activity may be a ploy to pry Syria open economically, into the open-market economics that Russia has embraced. Economic openness is often a precursor to political openness and moderation, but then again, Russia is not overly concerned with the types of polities it does business with, so long as business is beneficial.

The relationship of both Syria and Russia with Iran was also under scrutiny during the visit. Many thought that Syria’s Assad would use the visit to try and convince Medvedev to block the planned fourth round of Iranian sanctions in the Security Council: sanctions which Russia as it is seems reluctant to endorse. This is perhaps due to the fact that a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Bushehr in Iran is set to be completed this year. While the power plant was endorsed by the US because it would mitigate the need for Iran to continue with uranium enrichment programs, this has not been the case in reality, so the sanctions are being tightened.

As Russia seems to want to take a leading role in the neighborhood of the Middle East, it is also positioning for a role in the Af-Pak region.

Russia and Pakistan have a rollercoaster relationship, with relations at their sourest during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, and the cozy bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union at this time. Irked by the American criticism, Karzai has recently made a number of overtures towards the Russians, a scene reminding the players of the cold war days. India also stands disillusioned by the new US Af-Pak strategy, which has caused it to strive for closer Indo-Russian ties once again.

Russia and Pakistan seem to skirt around their possibly strong bilateral relationships-on Pakistan’s end, perhaps this is in fear of upsetting allies in Washington. On Russia’s end perhaps they are biding their time until the US withdraws from Afghanistan. Then they can have free reign to play the ‘Great Friend’ and benefactor role in this region, as it is showing overtures to want to play in the Middle East. Russia, like China, has shown a keen interest in Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project.

Soon after Medvedev’s visit to the region came the joint declaration yesterday by Iran, Turkey and Brazil on the signing of the Nuclear Swap Agreement. This development has caught everyone by surprise. PoliTact will be examining the ramifications of this development.

Tell Us What You Think
Feedback@politact.com

The post Russia: The New ‘Great Friend’ in the Middle East? appeared first on Politact.