By Naade Ali

Context

The chain reaction that got underway in the aftermath of Hamas October 7, 2023 attack on Isreal, continues to unfold at a tremendous speed. The fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, a key ally in Iran’s axis of resistance against Israel, has triggered profound geopolitical changes in the Middle East, reshaping regional power dynamics. These shifts are not merely reactions to Assad’s fall but are also a reflection of broader ambitions and vulnerabilities of the regional and global powers. The Syrian Civil War’s devastating impact has left a fractured nation with competing factions vying for influence, complicating any resolution of the crisis.

The coalition of Turkey-backed Islamist and nationalist militant factions that toppled Assad has emerged as a pivotal force. Assad’s downfall represents a significant blow to Iran’s fragile axis of resistance, undermining its influence across the Levant. With Iran effectively expelled from Syria and Hezbollah’s reach significantly diminished in Lebanon, Israel has seized the opportunity to expand its strategic foothold.

Meanwhile, a transitional interim government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group ideologically linked to Al-Qaeda, has assumed control in Syria. The country, however, remains in a state of chaos as multiple actors, including rebel factions, Turkey, and Israel, seek to consolidate their gains.

Although the civil war has officially ended, the shadow of potential conflict continues to loom over Syria. The involvement of external powers—ranging from Russia and China to the United States and Gulf States—adds another layer of complexity to Syria’s future. Each stakeholder has its own interests, and their competing agendas have made Syria a geopolitical chessboard. These developments underscore a pivotal moment for the Middle East, as the region grapples with shifting alliances and evolving power structures.

What to Expect from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?

The newly formed interim government in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and composed of various rebel factions, faces the daunting task of navigating a fractured and war-torn nation. HTS has announced its intention to govern until March 1 next year, at which point new elections are expected to formalize its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, as Syria’s next president. Al-Sharaa has outlined a three-stage roadmap for the country’s transition to stability. The first stage involves legitimizing the interim government, followed by convening a national conference to address constitutional reforms and governance. The final stage aims to organize elections and restore full citizenship to displaced Syrians.

Despite these ambitious plans, the likelihood of elections occurring by March remains slim. HTS’s dominance suggests that it may continue to govern Syria for the foreseeable future. In an effort to gain legitimacy both domestically and internationally, HTS has launched a rebranding campaign to distance itself from its radical jihadist roots. This campaign emphasizes governance, state-building, and inclusivity.

Al-Sharaa and interim Prime Minister Mohammad Al-Bashir have outlined a five-point agenda focused on national unification, strengthening state institutions, rebuilding infrastructure, gaining international recognition, and fostering diplomatic ties with neighboring countries and the West.

One of the most significant challenges facing HTS is unifying Syria’s diverse political and ideological factions. The country’s political landscape includes Islamist and secular nationalist groups representing a broad spectrum of ethnic and religious communities. HTS, which historically drew support from radical Salafist elements, may encounter resistance from groups advocating for a secular democratic state. Its governance model in Idlib, where it established centralized control after defeating rival factions, raises concerns about its willingness to share power. Secular factions fear that HTS may impose an Islamist authoritarian regime, alienating Syria’s diverse population.

Some analysts caution that Syria risks becoming an Islamic Emirate akin to Afghanistan, with HTS governing in a manner reminiscent of the Taliban. Although HTS has demonstrated administrative competence in Idlib and appointed self-styled technocrats like Mohammad Al-Bashir, applying this model to Syria’s complex socio-political landscape will be far more challenging. Protests demanding secular governance have already erupted in Damascus, reflecting widespread skepticism about HTS’s intentions. Within HTS itself, hardliners may oppose Al-Sharaa’s attempts to adopt a more moderate stance, further complicating efforts to stabilize the nation.

To address these challenges, Al-Sharaa has promised to shift away from a revolutionary mindset, emphasizing unity, stability, and institutional reform. He has pledged to disband rebel factions, integrate trained fighters into the Syrian army, and grant citizenship to foreign fighters willing to pledge loyalty to the new government. Internationally, HTS has sought to portray itself as pragmatic and inclusive, emphasizing human rights and good governance. However, reports of extrajudicial killings of former regime members by the HTS local commanders paint a different picture of the group. Notably, HTS has announced the establishment of tribunals to prosecute ex-officials of the Assad regime, despite initially granting them amnesty. This move has raised concerns about the group’s double standards and the potential for acts of vengeance will present a critical test for its leadership.

Another major challenge is economic reconstruction. Years of war have left Syria’s infrastructure in ruins, and millions of refugees are anticipated to return in search of better opportunities. To gain public trust, HTS would need to focus on rebuilding the economy and meeting the needs of Syrians. However, the current leadership of HTS is primarily focused on securing international support, including lifting sanctions and removing itself from terrorism designations. Al-Sharaa has assured the international community that Syria will not serve as a base for attacks against neighboring countries, to include Israel and Turkey. These assurances are part of HTS’s broader strategy to seek international recognition and restore trust.

Israel’s Strategic Response to Assad’s Fall

Israel has significantly benefited from Assad’s downfall, exploiting the power vacuum to further its strategic goals. Within just one week, Israel carried out over 350 airstrikes on Syrian military installations, neutralizing 80% of Assad’s critical military assets. Additionally, Israel has seized strategic positions in southern Syria, establishing a 400-square-kilometer demilitarized buffer zone that includes Mount Hermon—a vital vantage point for monitoring regional threats. These newly occupied positions provide Israel with a tactical advantage, enabling it to target Iran’s assets without the threat of Syrian anti-missile radar systems. By controlling key areas in Syria, Israel has bolstered its deterrence against Iran and other adversaries.

The fall of Assad and the subsequent weakening of Iran’s influence have allowed Israel to consolidate its position as a dominant regional player. Israeli leaders have framed Assad’s removal as a historic achievement, celebrating the collapse of an adversarial regime. Moving forward, Israel has extended a cautious diplomatic overture to the HTS-led government, signaling a willingness to explore avenues for peace and cooperation. However, any potential rapprochement with Israel will depend on HTS’s ability to demonstrate its commitment to Israeli-led security order in the region.

Turkey’s Expanding Role in Syria

Turkey has emerged as another significant player in the post-Assad era. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a long-time opponent of Assad, has used the opportunity to expand Turkey’s influence in Syria. By supporting opposition factions, Turkey aims to secure its southern border, exploit Syria’s resources, and establish the country as a client state. This strategic expansion aligns with Erdoğan’s broader ambition to position Turkey as a leading power in the Muslim world, challenging the traditional dominance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Turkey’s involvement in Syria also serves domestic political purposes, allowing Erdoğan to strengthen his nationalist base by portraying himself as a defender of Sunni Muslims. However, Turkey’s actions have not been without controversy. Its military interventions and support for Islamist factions have drawn criticism from both Russia and China. On the other hand, its opposition to US supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has put it at odds with the NATO alliance. Despite these challenges, Turkey’s influence in Syria continues to grow, making it a key stakeholder in the country’s future.

Iran and Hezbollah: Reeling from Setbacks

The fall of Assad’s regime has dealt a severe blow to Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah. For years, Syria served as a critical link in Iran’s axis of resistance, providing a conduit for arms shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Assad’s removal, Iran has lost a key ally, and its influence in the region has diminished significantly. Hezbollah, which has suffered heavy losses in the Syrian conflict, now faces an uncertain future. The group’s ability to project power in Lebanon and beyond has been severely weakened, raising questions about its long-term viability.

Iran, meanwhile, faces a critical situation. The loss of its strategic foothold in Syria has forced Tehran to reconsider its regional strategy. Some analysts speculate that Iran may pursue pragmatic diplomacy with the West to offset its losses, while others argue that it could escalate its nuclear program to establish deterrence against Israel. Regardless of the path Iran chooses its diminished role in Syria marks a turning point for the axis of resistance.

The Rise of Transnational Jihadist Movements

The victory of HTS in Syria has emboldened global jihadist movements, inspiring groups such as the Taliban and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamist groups from across the globe, like Afghan Taliban and various factions of Muslim Brotherhood, have sent congratulatory notes to HTS.

This development marks a significant shift in the nature of jihadist organizations, with non-state actors evolving into state entities. HTS’s success in Syria—achieving what ISIS could not—raises concerns about the rise of transnational jihadist states. While HTS has promised governance and reform, its ability to deliver stability remains uncertain.

Conclusion

Syria stands at a crossroads. The fall of Russian supported Assad’s regime has created a vacuum in the Middle East and upset the tender balance of power, which was already in tatters with the weakening of Iranian backed Hezbollah and Hamas.
The nation is torn between the promise of renewal and the threat of further devastation. The actions of HTS and other key stakeholders will determine whether Syria can overcome its challenges or succumb to further conflict. For now, the future remains blurred, but one thing is clear: the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East will never be the same.

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The US troop withdrawal from Iraq at the end of this year will increase security threats for Iraq’s neighbor. US Senator John McCain warned the Iraq pullout would increases risks to Turkey. It would also allow Iran to increase its influence in the region. Senator McCain expressed his discontentment with the US government’s strategy; “I am opposed to the withdrawal. This situation will increase the influence of Iran in the region and all the gains would be compromised,” he said.

The senator argued that Washington should take up the opportunity to stay back in Iraq. He also raised concern about PKK activity in the region, and suggested Iran was “supporting the PKK to disturb the balances of the Kurdish-populated regions in Turkey and other countries.”

The US announced last month that 40,000 US troops would leave Iraq by the end of this year. Negotiations went moot after the two countries disagreed on the question of immunity for American troops.

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Iraq summoned Turkish Ambassador over the comment made by Erdogan on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s government. Turkish Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan warned Iraq against stirring up Sunni-Shiite conflict. He added that this would be suicidal for the whole region and that Iraq faced a historical responsibility.

Turkey had earlier tried to play a moderating role as Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arab jockey for influence in the regoin. Iraq’s deputy foreign minister urged the Turkish government to avoid statements that would harm good relations. He also said that he has received reassurances from Turkish officials that the comments were made in good faith and that his reservations will be conveyed to the Turkish government in Ankara.

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Al Qaida in Iraq has claimed responsibility for the spate of bomb attacks across Baghdad which led to numerous deaths and injuries.
The self-styled Islamic State of Iraq said in a statement that the attacks were meant to support the Sunnis incarcerated in the Shiite-dominated country, and to avenge the execution of Sunni prisoners by the government.

The statement could not be verified, and on the day, bomb attacks ripped across Baghdad. The deadliest bomb blast occurred in Karradah district, killing 46 and injuring 23 people.
The attack came amid growing tensions between leading Shiite and the Sunni leaders in the aftermath of US troop withdrawal from Iraq.

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Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr announced on Thursday that US presence, whether civilian or military, after the year-end would not be tolerated. In a recent interview, Sadr said that “We do not accept any kind of U.S. presence in Iraq, whether it is military or not.” He further states that any presence, even non military of the Americans would be viewed as an occupation. The cleric vowed that such presence would be resisted, whatever the cost.

Sadr, who is the leader of Mehdi Army, dismissed concerns that the withdrawal of US troops would create a security vacuum in Iraq. He said the Iraqi government was capable of maintain peace in the country. 33000 US troops are expected to be pulled out of Iraq by Dec 31, 2011. However a US embassy in Baghdad, along with consular operations in Bara and Arbil are expected to be maintained in the country.

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Turkish troops on Wednesday pursued Kurdish rebels into Iraq. The operation came after rebels attacked military installations last night in Yuksekova. 24 Turkish soldiers were killed, and 18 injured in a clash between security forces and an estimated 15-20 militants. The clash took place in the Hakkari province near the Iraqi border. Ankara in retaliation launched a “hot pursuit” operation. Turkish planes bombed PKK bases and fighter jets and helicopter gunships crossed into Northern Iraq on Wednesday in pursuit of the rebels.

The attack on Tuesday was one of the deadliest attacks on security forces since 1993. President Abdullah Gul has promised to punish those behind the attacks. The US and NATO have also expressed sympathy and have issued statements of support for the Turkish government.

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The US and EU condemned the PKK attack on Turkey on Wednesday. The Western world expressed its sympathies for Turkey, and voiced anger at the PKK ambush which killed 24 Turkish soldiers. US president Barack Obama conveyed his country’s desire to continue to bring in stability in the region and offered support to Turkey against PKK. EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton in a statement said “the EU stands with Turkey in its resolve to fight against terrorism.”

The French spokesman also told reporters that France calls” on those elected representatives of the Turkish population of Kurdish origin to clearly distance themselves from the terrorist violence of the PKK.”

Turkey has started ground and air operations against the group across the border into Northern Iraq.

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Five policemen and three civilians were killed in the southeastern province of Bitlis in a terrorist attack carried out by the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) on Tuesday. The attack took place in the predominantly Kurdish district of Güroymak in Southeast Turkey. A two year old girl was among the killed. Two injured police officers are also said to be in critical condition.

The blast is believed to be the work of PKK under orders by Syrain Bahoz Erdal, a senior member of the group. It was conducted in retaliation to the destruction of a PKK camp in Kavakli by Turkish forces last week. The camp was an important base for the Kurdish Communities Unions (KCK), the network which controls PKK. Nearly 20 people have been killed by attacks carried out by the group in the last few months. The Turkish government has also stepped up its operations against the party.

The post PKK Kills Five Police And Three Civilians in Bitlis Attack appeared first on Politact.

Germany’s sustainable development agency, GIZ, has denied reports which suggest it has been funding the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkish Prime minister Tayyip Erdogan last week accused some foundations of funneling money to the PKK through loans to municipalities run by Turkey’s main opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP) and the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). Later reports suggested the head of state may have been referring to German funds coming into the country from German’s state-owned development bank Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and GIZ.

GIZ released a statement on Wednesday which stated that all of its “projects are carried out jointly by Turkish ministries and state institutions and in agreement with the Turkish government upon applications by the state institution.”

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The Turkish Prime Minister on Sunday said that a joint military offensive would be launched with Iran against Kurdish rebels. Kurdish fighters based in northern Iraq are a common enemy for both Tehran and Ankara; Turkey is fighting against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on its south east border while Iran is battling The Party of Free Life of Kurdistan or PEJAK from Qandil. The Kurdish areas of Iraq are one of the most prosperous of the country. However, they are a source of tension for both Iran and Turkey who fear support for Kurdish uprisings from across the border

It is not clear whether joint Turkish-Iranian action involves a major land offensive being launched against the Kurdish rebels.

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