Context
Drone attacks in Pakistan have increased dramatically during the month of September. According to the Long War
Journal, 35 such strikes took place in 2008, 53 in 2009 and so far 67 have occurred in 2010. The Prime Minister of Pakistan commented on Tuesday that even if US fails to deliver the drone technology, the country will soon have locally produced ones. This analysis lays out the significance of the recent surge in drone strikes.

Analysis

As noted by PoliTact in its August 10th forecast, senior US officials now also admit the focus of Pakistan’s military has shifted to providing flood relief and that counter insurgency and terrorism operations have been impacted. The US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently commented that due to the floods, Pakistan’s North Waziristan operation is expected to be delayed.

One reason for the hike in drone strikes could simply be that Pakistani military is preoccupied with providing rescue and relief efforts, while the US does not want the extremists to have the breathing space to plan and conduct terrorist attacks in Pakistan and elsewhere. With political unrest worsening in Kashmir, extremists might try to aggravate the situation further by striking a target in India.

According to media reports and based on the above assessment, US has stopped pushing Pakistan to do more, as this might be counterproductive. However, this does not mean that US would not act on its own at this crucial junction of the Afghan war. The major emphasis of the strategy is to weaken the extremists and bring them to the negotiation table from a position of weakness. Furthermore, there is a growing realization that the situation in Afghanistan cannot be controlled without eliminating the extremist sanctuaries in the tribal areas of Pakistan, a claim supported by both India and Afghanistan. The French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner also conveyed this sentiment on Tuesday when he said, “It’s not a secret for anyone, everyone knows that Mullah Omar is in Quetta, if he’s not now in Karachi.”

On the other hand, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for most of the recent terror attacks in Pakistan. TTP has linked the terrorist attacks to US drone strikes that have been conducted against them, which it claims have also caused civilian causalities. Additionally, the TTP spokesman Azam Tariq has accused the Pakistan army and the government of complicity in these attacks. By making these statements, Taliban have in fact accepted that the drone strikes are causing significant damage and this could also be the basis for the increase in UAV strikes in the tribal areas. While Prime Minister Gillani’s statement on the drone technology was probably meant to show disagreement between US and Pakistan on this matter, and to challenge the perception created by Taliban that the government is complicit in these strikes.

Drone strikes remain deeply unpopular in the country and are viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.  However, US humanitarian flood relief counters the negative perceptions created by the strikes. US is delicately but aggressively approaching both these goals; going after the extremists and providing flood relief. By adopting this tactics, US is attempting to prove that the drone strikes take out the very people that are known to kill Pakistani civilians, and thus to manage and offset the negative sentiment created by the drone strikes.

The post The Significance of the Surge in Drone Strikes in Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Context

PoliTact recently released a report laying out implications of the devastating floods on Pakistan’s geopolitics and geostrategic posture. It’s premature to present a realistic measurement of the flood damage on Pakistan’s infrastructure and economy as the rains have continued in various parts of the country. Moreover, as the swelled river Indus and its tributaries make their way down from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa to Punjab and Sind province, the consequences are exasperating. PoliTact has been able to develop the following damage appraisal based on credible media reports and from its own sources in the region. The attempt here is to present the wide reaching impact of the floods on the economy of the country.

Analysis

From all indications, Pakistan is heading for a dangerous drop in strategic food stocks in the coming days and months. The world prices of sugar and wheat were already rising as the country is expected to import. The following damage assessment will be updated as new numbers become available.

Number of People Impacted

According to a UN estimate the floods have impacted close to 20 million people including 6 million children, while close to 1600 have lost their lives so far. About 6 million people are homeless and out in the open with no shelter and food supplies.

Damage to Property

A total of 724,000 homes have been destroyed according to a Pakistan government estimate.

Flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have washed away 42,000 houses. According to World Food Programme a total of 97 villages have been impacted in Peshawar, 105 in Nowshera, 80 in Charsada, and 182 in Mardan district.

Damage to Agriculture Sector and Livestock:

According to agricultural officials in Pakistan the floods have destroyed about 500,000 tons of wheat. Furthermore, as many as two million bales of cotton were lost and 17 million acres of agricultural land destroyed based on a World Bank report.

Bloomberg reported quoting a farmers group in Pakistan that floods have damaged more than a million acres of sugar cane, cotton and rice fields and caused 250 billion rupees ($2.9 billion) of agricultural losses. The President of World Bank, Robert Zoellick has put the number to be around $1 billion.

Chairman of Pakistan Agri Forum reported to Bloomberg that floodwaters have destroyed 700,000 acres of planted cotton, 200,000 acres each of rice and cane and 300,000 acres of animal fodder. Additionally, 100,000 head of livestock has perished. Based on one estimate, half of Pakistan’s livestock has vanished overnight.

Damage to Infrastructure

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani stated that the disaster has pushed the country back 50 years in terms of infrastructure, electricity and communication. Hundreds of miles of electricity pylons and gas lines have been destroyed and numerous power stations have been flooded.

In the militancy infected Khyber Paktunkwa province 112 schools, 210 hotels, 137 bridges, hundreds of kilometers of roads, innumerable shops and buildings have been washed away. The whole of Charsadda district and a major portion of Nowshera are swamped.

According to Chief Minister of Sind province, up to 40 kilometers of Indus Highway has been washed away. The rough estimates indicate that losses by Sind to be around of 35 billion rupees, excluding crops.

Total Impact on the Economy

A rough estimate put together by a brokerage firm in Pakistan, Topline Securities, suggests the economy may lose up to 1 percent of its gross domestic product, or $1.8 billion. Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance has put the loss to be around to 2 to 3 percent of the GDP, or $4.09 billion to $5.09 billion. A farmers group quoted above has put the total agriculture loss alone to be around $2.9 billion. In working with Pakistan, the Asian Development Bank and World Bank are expected to complete a survey of the damage in about two weeks.

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