Context
General Stanley A.McChrystal’s sacking and his replacement with Gen.David H. Petraeus is a major development for the AfPak region and beyond. However, the Obama administration has been quick to point out that McChrystal departure is a change in personnel and not in policies. Nonetheless, many remain skeptical. It is also important to see how the US-Pakistan relations and military to military ties are impacted by this change.

Analysis

The Taliban are indeed happy. They believe the decision shows that the US policy on Afghanistan is falling apart. They are also under the impression that the American and NATO forces are demoralized and ready to go home. However, that is not likely to happen. The US simply cannot afford to abandon Afghanistan to the likes of Taliban and al-Qaeda. Also, Afghanistan is not Vietnam. Only 1,000 American soldiers have died here in the nine years of war compared to more than 58,000 in Vietnam.

There exist two streams of thought on how to interpret the present situation. According to one, US will leave abruptly under mounting causalities in Afghanistan. The other outcome foresees a more gradual but speedy withdrawal, once a regional settlement is in place. This will allow major players the desired stability and security while ensuring the interests of US and major players are not radically jeopardized.

Taliban and Jihadi Elements

For the Taliban supporters and Jihadis in Pakistan, the sacking of General McChrystal was a major blow to the American strategy in Afghanistan. Most of these people have interpreted the July 2011 withdrawal date of American troops announced by President Obama as the final year of the war in Afghanistan when the Taliban will recapture Kabul and once again rule the country. Thus their strategy is to escalate their activities in the region and to demonstrate that they have the initiative. President Obama’s statement, while it must have soothed some sections of the American public, did not go down well among the other countries in the region, and they have started preparing for both outcomes outlined above.

Pakistan Army

Pakistan has not officially reacted to the sacking of McChrystal, which to an average Pakistani mind is rather incomprehensible. Most people in Pakistan simply do not understand how a four star general could be forced to resign by a democratic government. When similar situations occur in Pakistan, it’s usually the democratic setup that ends up packing.

General McChrystal had developed good relations with senior leadership of the Pakistan Army, especially its chief General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani. While for some people the sacking of the general may have been a major dent in the US plan for Afghanistan, the fact is that General Petraeus is not a stranger in Islamabad. As the CENTCOM chief, he has been regularly meeting senior armed forces officers, including General Kayani.

The Pakistan Army will be carefully watching the leadership style of General Petraeus and the steps he will take now that he is in the saddle. The General Headquarters in Rawalpindi will be looking at how Petraeus deals with the surge in troops and the coming Kandahar campaign. Of interest will be whether the rules of engagement that limit close air support will be revised. The rules framed by Gen. McChrystal had reduced casualties among the Afghan civilians but at the same time made American troops rather vulnerable.

Of more concern for the Pakistanis will be how Petraeus employs counterinsurgency tactics and their impact across the border. As it is, Islamabad seems to believe that there would be no legitimate solution to the Afghan problem without involving particularly the Afghan Taliban in the peace process. On the other hand, Petraeus has stressed the importance of civilian participation in counterinsurgency strategy. Furthermore, the training of Afghan security forces will be closely watched by Pakistan. The country has offered to train the Afghan military and is deeply allergic to the Indians performing this role.

The Pakistan Army has been traditionally close to the Pentagon. As a result of the sacking of McChrystal, the GHQ would also like to closely watch the nature of evolving relationship between the US State Department and the Pentagon. In Iraq, the State Department’s role was rather marginalized. Not so in Afghanistan, but with the arrival of Petraeus, things may change.

Also a key aspect from the Pakistani point of view is the nature of relationship that will evolve between President Karzai and General Petraeus. General McChrystal and Karzai got along well, but Karzai and Holbrooke relation has been difficult.

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Suicide Bombings in Sistan-Baluchistan Province of Iran

The much-anticipated (Pakistani military) operation in Waziristan has begun. The focus of the operation is South Waziristan, particularly the area previously controlled by the now-deceased Baitullah Mehsud which is now controlled by Tehreek-e-Taliban’s (TTP) new leader, Hakeemullah Mehsud. Meanwhile, the situation in Baluchistan region is expected to worsen. While Pakistan sees the operation as the final frontier in its campaign against terrorists, more trouble is brewing in Baluchistan and in Southern Punjab. Traditionally, improvement in Pakistan’s relations with the Persian civilization comes at the expense of Arabs, and vice versa. This article analyzes the Waziristan operation in the context of other regional developments.

Analysis

The military operation is already having a positive impact for Pakistan as the US has speeded up the provision of military supplies to Pakistan. Furthermore, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reportedly praised Pakistani resolve to fight terrorism. Currently, General Petraeus and Senator Kerry are also on their way to Islamabad to reassure the country of American support. This increased American support will not be pleasing news for the Indians, as India fears such assistance will ultimately be used against it. While the U.S. praises Pakistan for its resolve in fighting terrorism, India continues to propagate the idea that Pakistan has not acted against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack and seems incapable of doing so.
Pakistan must have undertaken the operation after obtaining some level of confidence that Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the Haqqanis will remain neutral during the operation. Al Qaeda, and other parties who do not want this operation to succeed, will no doubt attempt to create discord and widen the scope of the operation, making it very difficult for Pakistan to achieve its aims.

Local experts have claimed that as long as the US is in Afghanistan, the scope of this conflict will only expand. While Pakistan believes that Waziristan situation will perhaps be the final challenge for it, the US and many other experts have already begun to talk about Baluchistan and Southern Punjab as the next destination for a potential operation.

The Situation in Baluchistan is worsening. This was evidenced today by two suicide bombings in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran. The attacks resulted in the killing of tribal elders from both Sunni-Shiites sects, who had gathered in Pishin District, near the Pakistan border, for a meeting. The incidents have also resulted in the killing of 7 senior commanders of Iran’s Elite Revolutionary Guard (IGRC). Iran has blamed US and Baluchi Sunni insurgent group Jundallah for the attacks while US has vehemently denied the accusations Jundallah has accepted responsibility. Jundallah’s leader, Abdullah Malik Regi, is believed to be in Pakistan. Attacking religious elders is a pattern similar to the one witnessed in the tribal areas of Pakistan as well as in Iraq.

The Iranian incident is sure to worsen relations between Iran and Pakistan and impact key commercial projects recently initiated between the two (e.g., the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project, the cargo train transit route from Pakistan to Turkey via Iran). The Iranian Foreign Minister has already cancelled a planned trip to Yemen, which was meant to convey a special message to President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Arab-Persian proxy war on the Saudi-Yemini border area is intensifying as well. The impact of the Iran bombing on US-Iran negotiations remains unclear.

Pakistan’s progress in Waziristan will have an influence on President Obama’s Af-Pak strategy decision. If the operation goes well, Obama is likely to lean towards fewer troops and more surgical strikes option. If it turns out to be a quagmire, the request for more troops for Afghanistan will probably be accepted. The likely view of the Obama administration is that if Pakistan can effectively eliminate and control the safe havens in its territory, then the ground situation is bound to change in Afghanistan, thus pressuring the Taliban towards negotiations.

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