This video clip evaluates how the civil-military and inter-institutional tensions are likely to play out in Pakistan, in the coming days and weeks. It also looks at how the political parties of Pakistan are positioning themselves during this crisis. 

Analysis

Basically, there are three scenarios emerging:

1. Early Elections
2. Installation of an Interim government that will hold elections at a later date
3. Replacement of the President or the Prime Minister

This assessment includes discussion with Dr. Mohammad Taqi, Political Analyst and Lead Columnist for Daily Times, Pakistan

The post The Future Of Civil Military and Inter-Institutional Tensions In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has dismissed the defense Secretary Naeem Khalid Lodhi for being the cause of ‘misunderstanding’ between the military and the civilian government. Gilani accused the army and intelligence chiefs of not submitting their replies to the Supreme Court inquiry commission on the Memogate issue, through government channels. He called the actions illegal and unconstitutional.

Pakistan’s army has responded to PM Gilani’s accusation, saying it will have grievous ramifications for the country. In a statement on Wednesday it’s army stated, “There can be no allegation more serious than what the honorable prime minister has leveled against COAS General Ashfaq Kayani and DG ISI Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha and has unfortunately charged the officers for violation of the constitution of the country”.

The army also denied the allegation leveled by PM Gilani saying their responses passed through the defense secretary to the court in accordance with the law. The statement added that Gilani had issued a press release last month apparently approving the army’s replies to the court as being made “through proper channel”. The statement also defended submissions as the military’s obligation to “state the facts”.

The post Pakistan Army Chief: Prime Minister’s Accusations To Have Serious Consequences appeared first on Politact.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has stated that the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and DG ISI Ahmed Shuja Pasha’s statements to the Supreme Court were not approved by the government. These statements were made in connection to the Memogate controversy.

He said that any official action by a government functionary without the prior approval of the government was unconstitutional and illegal. He added that the Ministry of Defense neither initiated any approval process, nor any approval was sought from it.

The statement from the Prime Minister is likely to further aggravate the civil-military tensions in Pakistan.

The post General Kiyani and DG ISI Statements Not Approved By The Government appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s Supreme Court announced on Friday that the petitions for the judicial inquiry into the Memogate scandal are maintainable. The court has established a judicial commission to investigate the issue with in four weeks. According to the decision, the earlier order of not letting Husain Haqqani to leave the country shall remain intact.

During the hearings, petitioner Ishaq Dar of PML-N appeared before the court and adopted arguments of Rashid A. Rizvi while Asma Jehangir said the petitions were vague and based on hypothesis. The Federation, President, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt. General Shuja Pasha, and many others including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were made respondents in the petitions.

Mixed reaction followed Supreme Courts rulings. Asma Jehangir called it a black day while Ishaq Dar welcomed the decision. On the other hand, the Parliamentary Committee on National Security that is also investigating the Memogate scandal, held its session on Friday under Senator Raza Rabbani. The committee has summoned former Ambassador Husain Haqqani, DG ISI Lt. General Shuja Pasha, and US businessman of Pakistan origin Mansoor Ijaz.

The post Inter-Institutional Tussles Intensify In Pakistan As SC Orders Judicial Inquiry appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan faces a civil-military divide, as the two, clash over a confidential memo. Islamabad’s relationship with the US is believed to be behind the hostilities. The military is in a furor over reports which claim the government asked for Washington’s assistance through a back door channel, to help prevent a potential military coup after Navy SEALs killed Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The allegations have led to the offer of resignation of Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Husain Haqqani.

The Ambassador allegedly drafted the memo and then had it delivered to Admiral Mike Mullen through a confidant. The memo provided by Pakistani-US businessman and the main interlocutor Mansoor Ijaz, stated the civilian government had in return for US intervention, agreed to terminate any “active service officer” who was found to be an accomplice in hiding Bin Laden. The memo also said that the US would be allowed to carry out operations on Pakistani soil. Additionally, Islamabad would hand over Al-Qaeda leaders including Taliban leader Mohammad Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani to Washington. Section S of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, a unit that handles relations with insurgent groups would also be closed according to the memo.

The release of this report has worsened relations between the government and army.

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Pakistan’s powerful military chief on Thursday called for American military assistance to be converted into public aid, a rare move which reflected growing criticism of the country’s security forces at home. A statement issued from General Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani said that funds currently being spent on the military are more urgently require to lessen “the burden on the common man.”

Though the remarks are not likely to have any major short-term impact, it can help shape up growing debate in the US about the justification for paying billions of dollars in aid to a military which many American lawmakers see with great suspicion. Domestically, Kiyani’s comment would help sooth the tense civilian-military relations in the country. Pakistan Army has come under severe criticism related to the discovery of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, US unilateral operation to eliminate him, and Taliban attack on naval facilities in Karachi.

The post Pakistan’s Kiyani: Divert American Aid to Public appeared first on Politact.

Context
Pakistan has urged the US to steeply cut the number of Special Operations Forces and CIA operatives working in the country and halt drone attacks aimed at Islamist militants operating in its tribal areas. The request was personally made by Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani, according to US and Pakistani officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on this sensitive issue. The scale of the demands came to light as Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the chief of Pakistani intelligence agency ISI, arrived Monday in Washington for almost four hours of discussions with CIA Director Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. The meetings are part of efforts to mend the already distrustful and tentative ties between the two spy agencies.

The post Pakistan Urges U.S. To Curb CIA Activities appeared first on Politact.

The post CENTCOM Chief Meets Pakistani Military Leadership appeared first on Politact.

Context
The US-Pakistan relations continue to be in hot waters. Only a day after Raymond Davis left Pakistan, a controversy is emerging over a drone attack conducted today in Datta Khel area of North Waziristan, killing about 38 people. Contradictory details have emerged regarding the target of the attack. However, Pakistan has issued stern condemnation, with its Army Chief calling it ‘irresponsible’ and ‘callous’. This article examines the strong reaction of Pakistan’s military to the drone attack today.

Analysis

Media reports indicated earlier that a drone strike by US unmanned aircraft left at least 38 suspected militants dead at a training camp in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal area. The men killed in the attack were believed to be militants of a Pakistani Taliban leader, Hafiz Gul Bahadur. The area is a hub for fighters of Afghan Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani and Al-Qaeda. The attack was the fifth in less than four days in Pakistan’s tribal belt along the border with Afghanistan.

However, reports that have emerged ever since reveal that the attack has targeted a local jirga and has resulted in the death of tribal elders and 5 to 7 Khassadars.

Pakistan Army Chief General Kiyani has issued a strong condemnation of the attack calling them ‘careless’ and ‘callous’. He went on to state:

“In complete violation of human rights, such acts of violence take us away from our objective of elimination of terrorism. It is imperative to understand that this critical objective cannot be sacrificed for temporary tactical gains. Security of people of Pakistan, in any case, stands above all,” he added.

“I strongly condemn this drone attack. A tribal jirga (council) was targeted in which several tribal elders and tribal policemen were martyred,” said Syed Masood Kausar, the Governor of northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

“We want to make it clear that the government of Pakistan and its people will not tolerate such attacks. These attacks are against the sovereignty of Pakistan,” his statement added.

Recent statements from Pakistan army had indicated that drone attacks do kill the extremists. The following comments came on March 8th from the commander of Pakistan’s 7th Division, Major General Gahyur Mehmood, who is also in charge of troops in North Waziristan:

“Myths and rumours about US predator strikes and the casualty figures are many, but it’s a reality that many of those being killed in these strikes are hardcore elements, a sizeable number of them foreigners.

“Yes there are a few civilian casualties in such precision strikes, but a majority of those eliminated are terrorists, including foreign terrorist elements.”

The US-Pakistan relations continue to be in hot waters. The incident has occurred only a day after CIA Contractor Raymond Davis was released from Pakistan and major protests are planned for Friday.

The strong statements coming from the Chief of Army Staff could be meant for domestic consumption, and to temper the public protests planned tomorrow. Additionally, it may also be to counter the perception that Pakistan Army has changed its position in anyway, after the Raymond Davis related US Pakistan strategic discussions, by allowing drone attacks on Hafiz Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan.

The post Drone Attack in North Waziristan Sparks Another Controversy appeared first on Politact.

Context
The spokesman for former president Pervez Musharraf has announced he intends to launch a new political party, All Pakistan Muslim League, on October 1st. The declaration has created a political frenzy in Pakistan. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of Altaf Hussain’s invitation to patriotic generals to assist in bringing about a revolution, Musharraf’s plan represents another attempt to fill the present lack of leadership and governance in the country. This analysis examines the implications of Musharraf’s reentry on the political scene of Pakistan albeit as a civilian leader.

Analysis

As a tradition, people of Pakistan tend to assess its former leaders more highly than the existing ones. Following this rule, many pundits in the country have made comparisons of Musharraf era to the current PPP led coalition government. No doubt, during Musharraf’s tenure the economic condition of the country was much better, and the law and order situation took a turn for the worse only after the Red Mosque operation in July 2007. Sizeable foreign investments were made in the country, and at one point, Pakistan’s stock market was rated most promising in the world. Generally, the economic growth in Pakistan has been speedier during army rule as compared to civilian leadership.

Support for Musharraf’s new party is likely to come from previous coalition partners such as Muslim League-Q, Muttahida Quami Movement and other religious parties. However, Musharraf carries with him serious political baggage related to his controversial actions against the Supreme Court, death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, and assassination of Benazir Bhutto. It should also be noted that Musharraf first came to power after removing a constitutionally elected government of Nawaz Sharif, and it was only after 9/11 that he was able to muster international credibility. He was a close and vocal ally of United States in the war against terror, which won him many enemies.

Musharraf’s new party will in all likelihood rearrange the politics of Muslim League-N and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. If Muslim League-Q related splinter factions such as ‘Hum Khayal’ group do join up with Musharraf, the politics of Muslim League-N will be affected. Musharraf’s popularity overseas continues to be one of his assets, which could potentially compete with Imran Khan’s constituents abroad. Meanwhile, Pakistan Peoples Party could come out to be one of the beneficiaries of these new dynamics. The focus of the Supreme Court could shift from matters related to NRO and move towards unconstitutional steps undertaken by Musharraf during his rule. Having just revitalized its public image, the Pakistan military is unlikely to tread near its former chief.

When it comes to the policies of the new Musharraf party, it would be interesting to observe the party stance on fighting extremism, particularly when the momentum for peace talks and political solution is increasing on the Afghan side but the emphasis for military action remains the focus when it comes to Pakistan.

President Musharraf’s foreign allies are unlikely to pledge their support behind him once again. The PPP led coalition government although performing poorly on the domestic front is cooperating fully as it relates to the war against terror. Furthermore, General Kiyani has adopted a much more conciliatory approach towards Afghanistan and Karzai as oppose to tensions that were a hallmark of Musharraf’s term. Additionally, according to media reports, General Kiyani may have also quietly allowed foreign troops on the ground, a move vehemently opposed by Musharraf.

It also remains to be seen if Musharraf would return to Pakistan. Altaf Hussain provides ample precedence that parties can be run from overseas. Moreover, both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had also continued to conduct politics from overseas during Musharraf period.

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