Context
The passing away of Special Representative Richard Holbrooke would be strongly felt in Pakistan and US. The government’s attempt to introduce IMF mandated Reformed General Sales Taxes (RGST) has run into major opposition. In the post flood environment, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led coalition government was already under considerable stress and now one of its coalition partners Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), decided to part ways. This article looks at the developing political scenario in Pakistan.

Analysis

A variety of factors are piling the pressure on the PPP led government and foremost among these are the accusations related to corruption. Negative reputations are hard to reverse and PPP government has had a rough ride from the beginning, to improve the image of its party chief and president of the country. This perception has plagued almost every initiative the government has been involved in, be it dealing with Kerry-Lugar aid package, IMF support, or in handling flood relief and rehabilitation. Moreover, the PPP leadership has not made any serious effort to deal with the credibility issue. The party has instead adopted a confrontational approach, and in this its conduct is no different from past governments under similar circumstances.
Governor of Punjab Salman Taseer, Interior Minister for Sind province Zulfiqar Mirza, and Federal Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan, perform most of the party brinkmanship. These individuals consistently serve to alienate Pakistan Muslim League-N in Punjab and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Sind. On the other hand, Federal Minister for Interior Rehman Malik operates as an emissary for the President and the Prime Minister, and to play the conciliators role. To maintain the coalition, PPP needs to play each party against the other, and this it would seem, is politics at its best.

The dynamics of the above theatrics are directly linked to the vulnerabilities of the present political set up and political parties. In recent years, economic stresses, extremism, foreign influences, and military interventions, are causing the leading political parties of Pakistan to loose their national character, and become more local. Pakistan is a country deeply divided along ethnic, economic and social lines, and, as a consequence, a coalition of political parties is often required in forming a government. These alliances become outdated quickly as they fail to keep pace with rapid change in the local and international environment, and spend most of their efforts shift to survival.

However, when parties begin to embrace the use of race and ethnicity as a tactic, it represents an unusually perilous political strategy. Such methods are typically employed when politicians feel desperate and to demonstrate their power base. The message is particularly intended for the Army, whose support is considered essential in bringing about political change in Pakistan. If political parties use ethnic divides to maintain a hold on power, the military has traditionally used religion to counterbalance the divisiveness and partisanship.

JUI-F is the second party since Muslim League-N earlier quit the coalition at the federal level. Now MQM has threatened to leave the PPP coalition if remedial actions are not taken soon. The parting of JUI-F, and keeping the numbers game aside, has significantly weakened the PPP government and its ability to govern and execute policies. This is occurring at a time when the party needed to muster its strength in order to get Reformed General Sales Tax to pass the National Assembly.
Furthermore, in the complete absence of representation from religious parties, PPP government would face additional credibility challenges and in implementing its policies related to the war on terror. These outcomes are also likely to impact Pakistan relations with its traditional ally, Saudi Arabia.

Facing these circumstances, and as alluded to above, the focus of the government would dramatically shift from governance to survival. Examining the role of previous rulers facing similar dire circumstances reveals that as oppose to course correction, they usually took more missteps and suicidal actions. These leaders failed to make a distinction between national and self-interest, and to check their negative cultural and emotional tendencies.

Keeping the situation in Afghanistan, FATA, India, and Iran in view, and the divisive politics of the present government in mind, the timing appears ripe for a coalition of religious parties to emerge once again. The US would dearly miss a diplomat of Holbrooke’s stature to make sense of the volatile Pakistani politics and to temper it, at this sensitive stage of the Afghan conflict. Especially, when US seem to have concluded that without Pakistan’s support, Afghan situation cannot improve.

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Context

In the aftermath of the third round of US-Pakistan strategic talks, held last week in Washington, the likelihood of North Waziristan operation has increased. The promised $2 billion worth of US military assistance for Pakistan and the reported breakdown of peace talks with Taliban have further increased the likelihood of the offensive. Meanwhile, Iran has joined the Afghan Contact Group, which met in Rome, with US acquiescence. This article looks at how Taliban are reacting to these developments in FATA.

The statements coming out of Washington indicate Pakistan Army gave assurances again about conducting a sweep in North Waziristan, however, the country has reiterated that only it will determine the timing of this operation.

In anticipation of the operation statements have emanated from both the Taliban of Pakistan and Afghan origin. If Pakistan was to act, it would raise serious problems for the Afghan Taliban strategy. Local Taliban belonging to the Mujahidin Shura of North Waziristan have stated they would relocate to Afghanistan, in case Pakistan conducts the operation, and threatened to ask Karzai for shelter. The Shura also clarified it would not violate the peace treaty it signed with Pakistan government in 2007, and all incidents would be first investigated.

Analysis

At the same time, the Afghan Haqqani network, which is based in North Waziristan, is trying hard to broker peace in Kurram tribal district. This is occurring after clashes have continued for three years, between local tribes that are for and against Taliban. Kurram borders North Waziristan and is of immense strategic value, as it is located on the Afghan border and quite close to Kabul. The Haqqani network intends to relocate to a new base in Kurram tribal agency before the launch of the offensive.

However, this is not the first time Taliban have attempted to clear out Kurram for their particular use. Pakistani Taliban have for years used ruthless tactics to eradicate the area of forces that have stood in their way, which are mostly Shiites. The Shiites are deeply indignant of Taliban and Al Qaeda and their Wahabi Salafi Islamic doctrine. On their part Al Qaeda and its affiliates, also loath Shiite population, be it in Kurram or Iraq.  According to the religious beliefs of Al Qaeda, Shiites are non-Muslims and traitors and liable to be killed.

Iran has been quite sensitive to the atrocities and mass murders committed by Taliban in Kurram. The Shiites of Kurram Agency, who have religious and cultural affinity with Iran, have been getting consistent flow of weapons and finances from Tehran in its fight against Taliban. This support is believed to be the main reason the anti-Taliban Shiite groups have successfully resisted Taliban taking over the area.

According to PoliTact sources, one of the other objectives of Siraj Haqqani to broker peace in Kurram, is to pacify the influence of Iran. Furthermore, to diminish the possibility and motivation for Iranians to allow the use of its Charbahar port, to supply NATO forces in Afghanistan via Nimroz province. In the aftermath of the closure of Torkham supply route, NATO authorities are trying to organize supplies through other routes, including Iran.

The attempts by the Haqqanis and Taliban to appease Iran, also has another critical reason. Iran continues to overlook the use of its territory, which the potential fighters crossover from Middle East to enter Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan. Taliban want Iran to not produce any impediment in this regard. In the months ahead, this route is going to play a crucial role as US completes its troop surge in Afghanistan.

The above laid out reasons could be why US allowed Iran to join the International Afghan Contact Group meeting in Rome. The group gathers the Afghan government, NATO, the EU, U.N. and other key players to assess progress in Afghanistan. Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan commented that it had no problem with Iran joining the group. However, the reaction of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are far from clear.

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Context
Ethnic and sectarian violence is not new to the port city of Karachi. Over the last week, more than 100 people have been killed in various incidents of indiscriminate firing by unknown assassins, and in pitched gun battles between unidentified rivals. Since the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) came to power, these bouts of violence in Karachi recur when the PPP led coalition government, in Islamabad, finds itself in trouble. This article examines the various causes of unrest in Karachi, Pakistan.

Analysis

There are several explanations for the killings and chaos in Karachi:

• The Pashtoon dominated Awami National Party (ANP) or ethnic factions with affinity towards it, are involved.
• The Urdu speaking Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is the cause.
• Foreign enemies of Pakistan are attempting to destabilize the commercial centre of Pakistan by insinuating ethnic and sectarian carnage.
• To shift the focus from its poor record of governance, PPP often uses the Sindh nationalist sentiments against MQM and other parties.
• Al Qaeda linked extremists want to accelerate chaos in Karachi and all through Pakistan.
• The gangs linked to the underworld (Lyari Gang) and mafia are causing this disorder.
• In the past, Pakistan’s Intelligence agencies have also been on the receiving end of the blame.

Political Implications

Without clear identification of the causes of unrest in Karachi, the remedies are short lived. ANP and MQM are the two most anti-extremist parties, however, due to their deep ethnic orientations, they have had strong enmity for each other. This leads to an unending process of accusations that MQM and ANP hurl at each other for causing violence in Karachi.

One prominent member of PPP who has since been reprimanded by the party leadership, and ANP party, have demanded to hand over the city of 18 million people to Pakistan Army to control the situation. However the party that recently requested the generals to take over the helms of the government and the anticipated revolution, MQM, is strictly against any such action involving its home turf. Apparently, the message was meant for the feudal from Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Baluchistan.

Due to differences with PPP and ANP, MQM is considering quitting Pakistani coalition government. However, the chances of this occurring  are minimal at this point. Judging from past behavior, MQM will only switch sides as the chances of the PPP government collapsing becomes a real possibility.

If the MQM quits government, the PPP-led coalition, would lose majority (without 25 members of MQM) in Pakistan National Assembly. In the 342-member National Assembly of Pakistan 171 members are required to attain majority. The PPP without MQM support would find itself four members short of this figure. This would shift the balance in favor of Pakistan Muslim Leaque-N.

Violence as part of Extremist Strategy

Some experts claim that the violence in Karachi is directly linked to Taliban and Al Qaeda strategy to destabilize Pakistan by creating ethnic tension. MQM party represents the Urdu-speaking community, whose ancestors migrated from India to Pakistan at the time of partition, in 1947. On the other hand, ANP is a Pashtoon nationalist party and heads the government in KP, the province most adversely affected by terrorism and Taliban insurgency.

Some independent sources and observers are of the view that Pakistani Taliban (TTP), in association with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, are responsible for triggering violence. One of their reasons is to pitch their staunch opponents against one another. NATO pressure in Afghanistan, drone attacks in FATA, plus Pakistan’s military operations, have caused Karachi to become one of the primary retreating sanctuaries for various forms of extremists. The extremists also want to control Karachi, so as to disrupt NATO supplies, majority of which originate from the two ports of the city.

Conclusion

There appears to be two principal and parallel strings of causes for violence and instability in Karachi:

• One of these is linked to the party politics and its connection to the underworld. This pattern results in incidences such as the one that occurred in Shershah Kabari Bazaar, with the death of 12 innocent people and numerous other targeted killings.
• The other thread is associated with the extremists and could also have foreign origins. The events tied to this pattern are illustrated by the attack on Abdullah Shah Ghazi Shrine on October 8, which left about 8 people dead. The assassination of religious leaders and scholars, Deobandi and Barelvi tussles, including the Sunni-Shia violence, are associated with this stream.

There could be a slight overlap between the two strings of causation listed above, but for the most part, they seem to be mutually exclusive. Both streams depend on the ethnic and sectarian divides of Karachi for their benefit.

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The post The Causes of Violence in Karachi, Pakistan appeared first on Politact.