The United States is building secret drone bases in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. According to the Washington Post this is part of an aggressive campaign by the US against Al-Qaeda. The terrorist network is thought to be operating in the region especially in Somalia and Yemen. Unmanned aircraft bases are to be established in Ethopia and Seychelles. Furthermore “hunter killer drones” are being operated in Somalia. The report published by Washington Post on Wednesday said the CIA was also in midst of building a secret airstrip in the Arabian Peninsula.

Washington officials have declined to comment on the reports. Previously officials had claimed the drones were used to track pirates in the region.

The post US Building Drone Bases In Africa And Arab Peninsula appeared first on Politact.

China has stepped up its research in the field of drone technology and is developing jet-propelled, armed unmanned aircraft, which it will sell to countries such as Pakistan and those in the Middle East and Africa. Although much of the project remains covert, the large number of drone aircrafts at recent exhibitions highlights Beijing’s commitment to making steady progress in the sector by developing equivalents to the top US surveillance and combat models- the Global Hawk and the Predator. But, unlike the US, China is not only trying to develop state-of-the-art drones but is also eyeing the global market.

The post China Developing Drones, Eyes Pakistan, Arab Nations for Sales appeared first on Politact.

The CIA has reportedly used unmanned drones for the first time to target commanders of Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, a move coinciding with the announcement of America’s new counterterrorism strategy shifting the campaign against extremism from costly battlegrounds toward expanded secret operations. The attacks in Somalia, which apparently wounded two commanders of the al-Shabab group last week, bring the number of states where drone aircrafts have been deployed to six: Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Yemen and now the restive East African country which US officials see as a key terror base following Bin Laden’s assassination in Pakistan.

The post CIA Expands Its Drone Campaign against Al-Qaeda appeared first on Politact.

Context

Angela Merkel’s administration has been facing pressure after the killings of German Islamists in Pakistan’s Waziristan tribal area through US drone attacks. The deadly assault in October 2010 proved to be a turning point in the collaboration between US and German intelligence agencies. Due to legal and humanitarian concerns, Berlin responded by limiting the amount of information that the German intelligence can pass on to its American counterpart. Germany’s Interior Ministry has issued more restrictive instructions and advised its intelligence agencies not to provide the Americans with information that would allow them to find out the location of German nationals.

The post Germany Limits Intelligence Sharing With US appeared first on Politact.

Context
India is silently going ahead with a plan to produce its own “smart” drones or UCAVs (unmanned combat aerial vehicles) used for firing bombs and missiles at enemy positions with precision. Speaking of the project for the first time, the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) said the aim was to produce drones for Indian Air Force in seven or eight years. Incidentally, Pakistan has also been asking the United States to provide it with combat drones but has so far only managed to get pledges for the supply of unarmed Shadow drone planes for intelligence-gathering purposes.

The post India Developing Combat Drones Silently appeared first on Politact.

Context

As Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Pakistan and US Secretary of Defense continues his three-day visit to China, the Chinese have recently disclosed two sophisticated weapons that can threaten key capabilities of US and its allies in the future.

Analaysis

The two recently revealed Chinese weapons include the J-20 stealth fighter jet prototype and Dong Feng 21D anti-aircraft carrier missiles. Experts believe the development of defense systems such as an aircraft-carrier ballistic missile, anti-satellite weapons and stealth fighter, pose a threat to the United States and its allies. No doubt these capabilities would be particularly worrisome for India. Meanwhile, India has also made recent overtures reflecting that it does not necessarily endorse ‘One-China’ policy.

Chinese officials have claimed that the test flight of J-20 stealth fighter as US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is visiting China, was a mere coincidence.

“I asked President Hu about it directly, and he said that the test had absolutely nothing to do with my visit and had been a pre-planned test. And that’s where we left it,” Mr. Gates was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

Pentagon has downplayed the importance of these weapons:

“Developing a stealth capability with a prototype and then integrating that into a combat environment is going to take some time,” said US director of naval intelligence Vice Admiral David Dorsett.

On the other hand, Chinese Minister of Defense Liang Guanglie made the following comments countering US and western apprehensions:

“We cannot call ourselves an advanced military country,” Liang told reporters. “The gap between us and advanced countries is at least two to three decades.”

United States wants to engage China in a comprehensive dialogue to gauge its strategic intent and to avoid potential mishaps, the possibility of which exists in the tense Korean Peninsula. China’s defense budget escalated between 1999 and 2009 and is reported to be at $78bn in 2010, while US has the world’s largest military budget at around $700bn.

Before suspending military to military dialogue, China had laid down three conditions to improve relations between US and China:

• Cease weapons sales to Taiwan.
• Stop its naval and air-based surveillance activities off China’s coast.
• Eliminate laws that prevent U.S. interaction with China’s military.

There are no signs that these terms were met and Chinese seem to have shifted the onus of improving relations to the US. As noted in previous evaluations, the US-China relations have far reaching implications for Pakistan and India. PoliTact has noted that if the military to military, or political and economic relations, between US and China deteriorate, it would likely impact US-Pakistan relations negatively.

Pakistan is a strong ally of China and key partner of US, whose role is pivotal to the resolution of Afghan conflict. However, the public perception of US in Pakistan has dipped to such an extent that it has become difficult for the government to carryout any policies that appear to be connected to American interests. In this context, Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Pakistan has taken on added significance.

Tell Us What You Think
Feedback@politact.com

The post The Concerns Over Advancing Chinese Military Capabilities appeared first on Politact.

Context
The drone attacks by the United States in the tribal areas (FATA) have become increasingly controversial in Pakistan. The U.S. argues that these attacks have been instrumental in targeting key Al-Qaeda leaders hidden in the tribal areas, as well as other terrorist groups using this area as a safe heaven to launch attacks on NATO forces across the border in Afghanistan. The U.S. further maintains that these drone attacks present the best possible alternative to ground-based (boots on the ground) incursions. Moreover, both unofficially and via media reports, the U.S. maintains that the attacks are carried out under a secret tacit agreement with the government of Pakistan. Senator Diane Feinstein(D-California) went so far as to claim that the drones are actually based in Pakistan and are launched from there against their targets; recent media reports suggest that the Pakistan conducts the groundwork for selection of the targets and then pass it on to the U.S.

Analysis

Pakistan has denied – publicly and vehemently – the existence of any such agreement with the U.S. The country’s official position is that the drone attacks are counterproductive and do not achieve the coalition’s goal of winning the hearts and minds of the local people; that in fact they encourage the recruitment of more extremists. Recently, the Pakistani Taliban, based in South and North Waziristan, have begun assailing civilian and military targets, threatening that these will continue until the drone attacks cease. The Pakistani Taliban believes it likely that their government is implicated in planning and conducting the attacks is some way and thus view it as collaborating with the enemy. So in order to change the perception that its national sovereignty is being compromised, the government of Pakistan has requested the U.S. to transfer its drone technology to Pakistan instead.

American and Pakistani intelligence agencies are increasingly at odds over how to approach this thorny situation. Pakistan desires more intelligence collaboration with the Unites States, which in turn alleges that on those occasions where it shared intelligence with the Pakistan, it was leaked to the people being targeted.

At the end of the day, the issues are the lack of trust and clarity of intentions of the parties involved; the difficulties in distinguishing friend from foe. In the past, Pakistan has entered into peace agreements with the Taliban and other radical groups with alleged involvement in cross border activities. According to the terms of these agreements, the radicals will desist from attacking the Pakistan Army or civilian targets. These agreements, however, usually didn’t address the issue of cross border activities, so that in the eyes of the U.S. and the West, they provide the respite the radical elements need to gather strength and launch attacks against NATO and the coalition forces in Afghanistan. Thus, America and the West have the following questions:

• Why does Pakistan enter into agreements with these radicals?Why does the country fail to follow through with forceful actions that substantiate its claim that these extremists are their enemies as well?
• Could Pakistan in fact be using these militants as proxies, as India and Afghanistan claim?
• Which elements in Pakistan are sympathetic to radical groups? How can this be changed?
• What is the real nature of public opinion in Pakistan regarding these Islamic radicals and militants?

In attempting to answer these questions, Western observers stress what they perceive as Pakistan’s unwillingness to part with these radical groups, due to both past associations and perceived future strategic utility. They argue that the public and private faces of the Pakistan government are at odds with each other; what the government shares with Americans in private contradicts what it wants to convey to its public and to the extremist elements.

In contrast, Pakistan claims that the problem lies not in any lack of resolve on their country’s part, but in its capacity. There is also a fear of history repeating itself: when as a colonial power, Great Britain arrived on the Sub-Continent, it exploited the Sunni-Shiite Muslim divide in the region. If the British did not have the help of the progressive Nizams of Hyderabad, they would not have been able to defeat Tipu Sultan. Once Tipu was eliminated, the Moguls, weakened by Ahmad Shah Abdali’s relentless attacks from the West, were no match for the British. Other global powers besides Britain have been inclined to leave the region in a rush, once weakened by tussles of other major players in international power struggles, without making any serious attempt to arrange a transition. In short, Pakistan is doubtful about the intentions and stamina of western powers while dealing with problems of the region.

The drone attacks present a number of domestic scenarios for Pakistan.

• First, they could expose the dichotomy of the Pakistan’s official position and force a change in its makeup, particularly in the military.
• Second, they could trigger the rage of radical groups towards Pakistan’s military, which will almost certainly react by doing everything in its power to defend itself.
• Third, they might lead the Pakistani Taliban to switch its focus from Afghanistan to Pakistan. If Pakistani Taliban have to protect their own turf then there chances of supporting Afghan Taliban diminish substantially. Furthermore, this helps to divide the radical forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mullah Omar has recently asserted on all Taliban’s to focus on Afghanistan and wants Pakistani Taliban to stop attacks on the its military, since that distracts from the mission of getting foreign forces out of Afghanistan.
• Fourth, they might force the Pakistan’s public to question the motives and risk/reward calculus of the its Army and associated strategic planning circles, simultaneously weakening the credibility of the present civilian government and heightening the historic tensions between progressives and Islamic revivalists. According to some, stronger Pakistan has traditionally destabilized Afghanistan. By this logic, by weakening Pakistan perhaps Afghanistan can be stabilized.
• Fifth, they might reawaken Pakistan’s old anxieties regarding ethnic strife and civil war, as well fears of Pincer style aggression from India and Afghanistan.

But drone attacks have both regional and global ramifications as well. For Pakistan the fear is that drone attacks can provide precedence for India in how to deal with Kashmiri Jihadis. A prospect which is very much alive in the aftermath of Mumbai attacks. The unmanned drone attacks in the tribal areas of Pakistan are also a signal to Iran, nervous because of the presence of American troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and Central Asia. Furthermore, drone attacks provide a plausible pretext for countries like Israel to launch long distance attacks on adversaries, as it recently is alleged to have done in Sudan. It has been reported that a supply convoy intended for Hamas was targeted there. Realizing the utility of unmanned platforms in last year’s Georgia conflict, Russia recently concluded a $50 Million deal with Israel to purchase drones.

There is another consequence of the drone attacks in Pakistan, perhaps all the more dangerous for being less obvious. It is claimed, the attacks have succeeded in pushing militants away from the border and deeper into the settled and urban areas of Pakistan; as a result, these extremists will almost certainly come into contact with the Kashmiri Jihadis and Punjabi Taliban – if they haven’t already – resulting in a fusion of the radical and Islamic revivalist forces of Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. Regarding India in particular, where Muslim discontent is at an all time high, this prospect is not as far-fetched as it sounds. After all, it should be remembered that adherents of the Taliban believe in the same Deobandi school of thought that originated in India and then spread elsewhere. This joining of forces could intensify Shitte-Sunni tensions in the Middle East and Central and Southern Asia, with Al-Qaeda as the mastermind. This is not a prospect that progressive forces of Pakistan or United Sates look forward to.

Tell POLITACT What You Think

Feedback@politact.com

The post The Politics of the Drone Attacks in Pakistan – Its Domestic, Regional and Global Ramifications appeared first on Politact.