Context

Syria has emerged as one of the most critical fault line for the global balance of power struggles. It is perhaps the only place in the world where both the global and regional powers have boots on the ground – such as US, Russia, and Turkey. US has about 900 soldiers based there, while Russian presence constitutes about 5,000 troops, and Turkey according to some estimates has more than 10,000 soldiers in northern Syria carrying out military operations.

Syria is also home to Iranian backed proxies which includes Shiite Hezbollah, and Sunni extremist groups such as ISIL and Al Qaeda. Moreover, there are other local non-state actors that are fighting against the Assad regime, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Free Syria Army (FSA), with western support and backing of Turkey and other Arab nations, such as UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. And then there is legacy business of Kurds, Syrian Kurds (YPG) operate from northern Syria against Turkey while also receiving US support for the fight against ISIL.

Arab Spring and Syria

The Arab Spring protests in Syria began in March 2011 as part of a series of pro-democracy demonstrations that swept across the Middle East. The protests initially called for increased civil liberties, greater freedom of speech, and the end of the Ba’ath Party’s rule. The Syrian government responded with a brutal crackdown on protesters, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. As the protests continued, the government’s reaction grew increasingly violent, and the conflict escalated into a full-scale civil war and millions of refugees. Close to 3.5 million Syrian refugees migrated to Turkey while others went to different places in MENA region, Europe, and the US.

The threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) emerged in Syria around 2011. The group joined forces with other extremist groups in the region to fight against the Assad government – and quickly gained control over large swathes of territory in the country. ISIL was eventually defeated in Syria in March 2019.

The Assad regime in Syria was able to survive largely due to support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah. They provided the Assad regime with military and financial support, enabling it to remain in power despite the civil war and international sanctions. Iran sent thousands of militiamen to fight alongside Syrian government forces in their fight against ISIL, SDF, and FSA that were operating to topple the Syrian government. Additionally, the Assad regime was able to rely on its strong security apparatus to repress domestic opposition and maintain control over the country. At the same time, while US, Turkey, and UAE were backing groups such as SDF and FSA to remove Assad, they were also fighting against ISIL.

As the extremist threat diminished, which was a common threat for state actors operating in Syria, the fissures became apparent along the respective geopolitical interests that are tied to the great power competition.

The Fight to Remove Assad’s Regime and Iran

Since the beginning of Arab Spring, one of the overarching aspirations has been to do deal with the wider Iranian behavior and influence in the Middle East, and constraining its nuclear and missile program. From the perspective of Israel and the US, any potential regime change in Syria would have undermined Iran and its control over Hezbollah – that extends its influence into Lebanon and Palestinian territories. Moreover, Iranian proxies also complicate the Middle East Peace Process between Israel and Palestine.

To counter this, Israel has simultaneously been working on what has come to be known as the Outside-In Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and associated with it the ‘War between Wars’ strategy. The premise of the Outside-In approach has been to alter the regional dynamics to such an extent that it leads to diminished Arab support for the Palestinian cause – this would make the Palestinian more amenable to accept peace on Israeli terms. The approach also envisions undermining Iran’s nuclear and missile program while maintaining the threat of military action against Iran. This overtime led to the agreements which came to be known as Abraham Accords in 2020 and normalization of ties between UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel.

One the other hand, the main focus of the ‘War between Wars’ strategy is to prevent Iran from getting entrenched in Syria and thus threatened Israel directly via Lebanon. According to some estimates close to 2500 Iranian Revolutionary Guard members are operating in Syria.

Russian Role in Syria

The Russian support of Assad’s government and military intervention in 2015, directly undercuts the objective of regime change. Moreover, Israeli strikes against Iranian targets and Hezbollah in Syria risks hurting ties with Russia. Yet Israel has maintained close ties with Russia despite their differences over the Syrian conflict. Israel and Russia cooperate on a variety of matters, including security and trade. Additionally, the two countries have developed a mechanism to de-conflict their operations in Syria and ensure that their forces do not come into conflict with one another. Despite their differences, Israel and Russia have managed to maintain a good working relationship.

On the other hand, Russia has provided the Assad regime with military, financial, and political support, helping to keep it in power despite international sanctions and widespread opposition. Additionally, Russia has deployed thousands of troops and airpower to support the government in its fight against the FSA, SDF, and ISIL. To keep amicable ties with Turkey, Russia has generally maintained a neutral stance towards the Kurdish-led YPG in Syria.

In addition to air bases, Russia also maintains a naval base in Tartous. The larger Russian strategy is not only to protect the Assad regime but also maintain a foothold in the larger Middle East and North Africa. Russia is also military involved directly or through mercenaries in Libya and Sudan. But the conflict in Ukraine has had a significant impact on Russia’s military presence in Syria. Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014, the United States and its allies imposed economic sanctions on Russia hitting its economy. As a result, Russia has had to reduce its military presence in Syria and focus its resources on the conflict in Ukraine.

Turkey, YPG, PKK and Syria

Turkey is another stakeholder to the conflict in Syria, it has carried out military operations against the Kurdish-led YPG. Additionally, Turkey has sought to maintain a buffer zone along its border with Syria, which has been opposed by the YPG. Turkey’s actions against the YPG have caused tensions with the United States since it supports the group in its fight against ISIL – and YPG has collaboration with SDF and FSA to topple Assad’s regime. Being a NATO member, Turkey has also provided the SDF and FSA with arms, training, and financial support in their fight against the Assad regime.

On the other hand, both Russia and Iran have not directly engaged in the conflict between YPG and the Assad government and accused the group of cooperating with the United States and other foreign powers.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurdish-led YPG in Syria have a close ideological and organizational relationship. The PKK has provided the YPG with military and financial support in its fight against ISIL, as well as political and diplomatic support in international forums. Additionally, many members of the PKK have joined the YPG in its fight against ISIL.

Like Turkey, US and EU consider PKK a terrorist organization. This approach which supports YPG in Syria but considers PKK a terrorist group, complicates US and European ties with Turkey and NATO – and raises Turkish concerns about the real intent behind supporting separatist YPG.

Saudi-Iran Detente

The question becomes how the situation of Syria will impact the Chinese facilitated Saudi-Iran truce reached in March. Or, in other words, what are the key terms of the détente reached by Saudi Arabia and Iran, that will facilitate establishing a regional balance of power and resolve proxy wars in places like Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, and Palestine. Moreover, what does it imply for the budding great power rivalry in South Asia.

One of the immediate benefits of the truce has been the ceasefire in Yemen, followed up by exchange of prisoners. The foreign minister of Syria has also visited Saudi Arabia, reciprocated by the Saudi Foreign Minister’s trip to Syria – raising hopes for potential reentry of Syria into the Arab League. Earlier in March, Assad had also visited UAE to rebuild ties that had been cut-off due to the support provided by Gulf States to anti-Assad Forces.

Iran’s nuclear program and the threat posed by its wider behavior in the region, represented the threat perception that had moved the Arab world closer to Israel – and by extension to the US. Additionally, the criticism of the Abraham Accord, reached in 2020, has been that it has not resulted in any quid-pro-quo when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In fact, with the return of Netanyahu’s right-wing government and the aggressive actions it has taken, has reversed the gains made under the Abraham agreement. This has adversely impacted Israeli ties with the US.

However, it is also a fact that US interests in the Middle East have transformed in the aftermath of the campaign against extremism, and military withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. It is no longer dependent on the energy resources of the region, as China is, but it is engaged head on in the great power rivalry with China and Russia. The Middle Powers are caught in the middle of these power tussles. According to the White House Coordinator for MENA, Brett McGurk, the main objectives of US in Syria are to reduce the violence, maintain a check on the activities of ISIL, help the Syrian humanitarian crisis, and back Israel.

The shift in UAE and Saudi position reflects a realization the Assad’s regime has survived the worse with Russian and Iranian support. The China, Iran Economic and Security Deal reached in 2020 demonstrated that China was also throwing its weight behind Iran, which has traditionally been also backed by Russia. PoliTact had pointed out at that time that the pact represented China’s pivot to the Middle East. With the China facilitating the Saudi-Iran truce, the balance of power appear to be shifting away from the US, which is increasingly been seen as an unreliable partner. Commenting on the deal, former Israeli prime minister commented that “This is a fatal blow to the effort to build a regional coalition against Iran.”

Will Israel counter or accept any potential guarantees from China that it can manage Iranian nuclear program and wider behavior in the region, remains to be seen. The new Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang recently stated that it is ready to mediate peace talks between Israel and Palestine.

Meanwhile, the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had warned Israel in 2019 to reduce its economic and security ties with China or risk reduced security cooperation from US. During his visit to Saudi Arabia in 2022, President Biden had stated, “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran … We will seek to build on this moment with active, principled, American leadership.”

Related:

• What Does President Biden’s Visit To Israel And Saudi Arabia Imply? Aug 4, 2022
• Biden’s Middle East Policy, China-Iran Ties, and CPEC
  On July 28, 2020, PoliTact held a webinar to discuss the potential China-Iran economic deal and its impact on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

• PoliTact’s Chief Analyst Arif Ansar’s interview on the situation of Syria on Pakistan Television, March 2023

• The Emerging ‘Outside In’ Approach To Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Afghan Reconciliation, And Kashmir Issue. July 15, 2015

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China and Russia vetoed the UN Security Council resolution that condemns Assad’s crackdown and backs Arab League plan calling for Bashar Assad to step aside. Both reiterated their opposition to the use of force to resolve the Syrian crisis, where escalating violence has killed thousands of civilians as the regime has cracked down on dissidents. The other 13 members that include US, UK, France, India and Pakistan, voted in favor of the resolution. Arab League Secretary General Nabil al-Araby was pressing the Council to take swift and decisive action. On the other hand, Syrian UN ambassador dismissed the criticism against the regime, calling it the dream of western powers to return to colonialism and hegemony.

Analysis

Russian envoy to the EU had objected to the language of the Western-Arab UN Security Council resolution, calling for ‘unspecified measures’, if President Bashar does not cede power. Russia wanted a clear clause that rules out the possibility of external military intervention.

Russia had further stated that it will not support any action that is imposed on Syria; moreover, it will not take sides as had happened in the case of Libya. Sergei Lavrov had earlier commented that armed extremists disrupting the civic life are equally condemnable as the use of violence by the government. Additionally, Lavrov had warned that the regime change will not be restricted to Syria only, and it would spread.

China had also resisted Western push for the Security Council resolution, calling the forced regime change a violation of the United Nations Charter and the basic norms guiding the practice of international relations.

Meanwhile, Washington has maintained that the fall of Assad’s regime is inevitable, and it’s only a question of time. The opposition Syrian National Council has deplored the ‘lack of swift’ action by the international community and to protect the Syrian citizens ‘by all necessary means’. The rebel Free Syrian Army has claimed fifty percent of territory is no longer under the control of the regime, while CIA director David Petraeus has said that Assad now faced challenges in Damascus and Aleppo, two cities that had been insulated from the unrest.

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Context

The situation in Syria has reached a critical stage. Many fears associated with the state of affairs there appear to have materialized one by one; to include the worsening humanitarian crisis, fear of chemical weapons getting into the wrong hands, the growing influence of extremists, and the potential spillover of the conflict in the wider region.

Each one of the above-interconnected anxieties carries serious implications. As has happened in the past, dictators in the Middle East inadvertently try to widen the conflict. This was the worry in the case of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi. While these dictators were removed without any such immediate repercussions at the time, nonetheless, the resulting vacuum is causing the gradual spread of chaos across the wider region of Middle East and North Africa.

In both Iraq and Libya, regime change could not have taken place without external intervention. And, it is looking more likely in Syria as well especially when AQ linked extremists are outperforming the other forces of opposition in Syria.

Analysis

The Worries About Syrian Chemical Weapons

To deal with these Syrian worries, US has decided to deploy 200 military personnel to Jordan that will prepare the ground for military operations, if needed. These troops are in addition to the US Special Forces that have already been carrying out joint military exercises with their Jordanian counterparts.

The most serious apprehension obviously is in regards to the Syrian chemical weapons and there are accusations that the country may have already used them. However, Assad regime claims it did so after its introduction by the opposition forces. While US has been examining the proof, in a letter to the UN, France and UK have now asserted that Syria has indeed used chemicals on a number of occasions since December. On the other hand, in a recent interview to BBC, Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed it was ready to take action to prevent these weapons from getting in the hands of extremists, an outcome that would produce unprecedented consequences for Israel.

The Extremist Influence And Afghanistan Style Boomerang

The second concern is in regards to the growing influence of Al Qaeda (AQ) linked extremists in Syria. According to recent media reports, the strategic zone between Jordan, Israel and Syria that is located east of Golan, was taken over by the Syrian AQ linked group, Jabhat al-Nusra. Subsequently, AQ in Iraq claimed that Jabhat al-Nusra was now merged with it, and together they will be called Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. While the association was long suspected, there is a danger that secular and nationalist opposition forces to Assad may be taken over by the extremists, posing negative repercussions for the Gulf, Israeli and Western interests.

This prospect is validating a scenario that PoliTact had pointed out to; a new Afghanistan like situation is brewing right in the heart of the Middle East, and with active support of Turkey, the West, including the Gulf heavy weights of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. If indeed the extremists begin to take the upper hand, as seems to be happening, military interference of one sorts or the other will be required.

US Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dempsey himself raised this possibility recently. He commented that US could send troops to Syria if the regime there appears to be falling to rebels, and its chemical weapons are in danger. In March Senator McCain had stated: “The President must state unequivocally that under no circumstances will Assad be allowed to finish what he has started, that there is no future in which Assad and his lieutenants will remain in control of Syria, and that the United States is prepared to use the full weight of our airpower to make it so.”

Early signs indicate the Gulf Region is also now is preparing for the inevitable overflow of the conflict in Syria and tensions with Iran. UAE and Saudi Arabia are both cracking down on illegal immigrants and have clamped down on Al Qaeda and Iran linked cells. In March Saudi Arabia claimed to have arrested 18 spies, some of them linked with Iran.

US-Russia Counter-Terror Cooperation

While the intervention in Syrian appears imminent, opposition from Russian and China has continued. In this context the Boston marathon incident may play an important role in soothing the ties between Russia and US. President Obama thanked Putin on Friday for unspecified support provided by Russia for the resolution of the matter. Will this lead to smoothening of US-Russia anti-terror cooperation, which could also speed up the regime change in Syria, is yet to be seen. However, it is interesting to see such linkages are already appearing in several prominent media outlets.

There are many Chechens that are fighting in Syria in cohorts with AQ, just as they have in the AfPak region. Russian assistance in stopping the flow of jihadist could prove to be instrumental. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to meet his Russian counter part, Sergei Lavrov, in Brussels next week. He told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week:

“Right now, he (Bashar al-Assad) is sitting there (in Syria) with support from Iran, with support from Hezbollah, with support from Russia, with artillery and an army, and believing that he can continue to fight it out using his air power, his Scuds, his artillery and his tanks. So that equation somehow has to change, and we all understand that.”

Conclusion

At the weekend meeting of the foreign ministers of Friends of Syria group that was held in Turkey, US decided to double its non-lethal assistance and humanitarian aid. According to reports, the equipment to be provided will now include armored vehicles, night vision goggles and sophisticated communications equipment. On the other hand, the Free Syrian Army has continued to complain they have not been provided enough support to decisively settle the matter, which only increases their dependence on the Islamist groups.

The Friends of Syria group is concerned that arms being supplied to the opposition forces may ultimately end up with the extremist groups, and that would only complicate the post Assad scenario. For their part, the opposition forces have assured the military equipment will not fall in the wrong hands. However, if the extremist groups continue to outperform the opposition forces supported by Friends of Syria in toppling the Assad regime, military intervention is all but likely.

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