The IMF has temporarily closed its offices in Pakistan. An official from the organization has cited security as the reason for the closure. The official said the staff was working from home and was conducting its meetings through email and telephone. The advice for the shutting down of the office allegedly came from IMF headquarters in Washington which has also advised its personnel to restrict travel.

The Asian Bank and the World Bank are currently still operating normally in the country with private and government security arrangements in place.

The post IMF Offices In Pakistan Closed Temporarily appeared first on Politact.

Context

The supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan, passing through Khyber Pass and border town of Torkham, remains closed. Two increasingly reluctant countries of the Afghan coalition and NATO, France and Germany, are on an alert for possible Mumbai style terror events. The attackers are reported to have trained in FATA. However, on October 6th came the word of Afghan peace talks, which are well underway, and the associated debate about the key positions of various stakeholders. This article looks at pressures of the end game in Afghanistan. The outcome of the present US and Pakistan showdown will determine who has the upper hand at this stage.

Analysis

Only a week ago news media was reporting that Afghan Taliban remain unwilling to negotiate until and unless coalition forces give a date of their withdrawal from Afghanistan. Nonetheless, now the same media sources are presenting a different perspective that senior Taliban are eager to initiate the peace talks, under pressure of being left out. The information and psychological warfare have become a critical component of the larger strategy at this juncture of the Afghan war.

Following are the key positions of the main parties involved in the Afghan conflict:

US and Pakistan Leverages

Pakistan has suffered immensely from the recent devastating floods, which has gravely impacted its economic outlook. At the same time, economically distressed Pakistan is under tremendous pressure to reevaluate its position as it relates to Afghan Taliban, especially the Haqqani network. US believes the Haqqanis are extremely radical in their orientation and too close to Al Qaeda, to be part of any reconciliation. The cross border incursions by coalition forces thus serve as a pressure tactic on the country, to reconsider its position. The underlying message is; if Pakistan does not change its position and act in North Waziristan, the number of cross-border incursions in FATA could increase.

The tactical escalation would range from drone attacks to hot pursuit and ground troops. Such a strategy is meant to put pressure on Pakistan, which can in turn shift to Afghan Taliban, to change their hard line positions and be more amenable to peace talks and settlement.

On the other hand, through closing of NATO supply route, Pakistan is demonstrating the advantages it holds. No doubt, longer the supply route remains closed, and if the attacks on the fuel containers spread in Pakistan, the US operations in Kandahar (Dragon Strike) and other places would be impeded. The Chaman border crossing has remained opened for NATO supplies, however, if relations were to deteriorate further, it could also face closure. Pakistan’s help is also essential in negotiating peace with different Pushtun factions taking part in the Afghan conflict.

There are indications that US is beginning to show receptiveness to Pakistan’s interests. The Guardian newspaper reported on October 6th that US has been in contact with Haqqanis via intermediaries. Furthermore, the US apology offered to Pakistan over the helicopter incident in Kurram Agency, demonstrates there is a willingness to calm the waters for the time being.

Based on media analysis, PoliTact believes US has started to prepare counter leverages that would threaten Pakistan’s military aid. The US is unlikely to touch the civilian economic aid, as it would only increase its negative perception in Pakistan. This also implies the country will continue to back the civilian leadership in Pakistan. At the upcoming strategic dialogue between US and Pakistan on October 22, the economic leverage US holds over Pakistan would increasingly come in to play. In the post floods economic environment, this dynamics will only exasperate the civilian-military relations in Pakistan. To counter US economic leverage, Pakistan will in all likelihood depend on its traditional allies, China and Saudi Arabia.

These events represent the beginning of the first phase of political approach to the Afghan conflict and many hurdles are yet to come. If Pakistan emerges stronger as a result of the Afghan conflict, it would also enhance China’s role in the region, and this is where the prospect of long-term US-Pakistan strategic partnership weakens.

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Context

The floods in Pakistan have given birth to two controversial geopolitical issues. One of them is related to anarticle that first appeared in the New York Times on August 27, where the author Selig Harrison has claimed the presence of about 11,000 Chinese troops in Gilgit-Baltistan area of Pakistan. The second event is associated with flooding of western Balochistan allegedly as a consequence of the efforts to save the Shahbaz airbase, located in Jacobabad, Sindh. This base according to media reports is used to conduct drone strikes in FATA and also hosts Pakistan’s modern attack aircrafts. This analysis explores the geostrategic linkage of these developments if they are indeed true.

Analysis

Shahbaz Airbase

Jacobabad airbase is located 300 miles north of Karachi, 300 miles southeast of Kandahar and approximately the same distance from the Pak-Iran border. Due to its strategic location it was chosen as one of the key bases used by US for supporting Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Reportedly, the site has also been used for conducting research and development for drone related programs as well as strikes in FATA.

A controversy was triggered recently when some Pakistani politicians made official remarks pointing out that the airbase could not be used for rescue and relief efforts since it is under lease to US and for conducting drone strikes. Subsequently American ambassador to Pakistan clarified that this is not the case. However, both unofficially and via media reports, the U.S. maintains that the drone strikes are carried out under a secret tacit agreement with the government of Pakistan. Senator Diane Feinstein (D-California) who is also the chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence had claimed in 2009 that the drones are actually based in Pakistan and are launched from there against their targets. In short the base has an immense regional geo-strategic importance for the US as it relates to Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and to counter Chinese policies in the region.

Gilgit-Baltistan

In an article published in the New York Times, author Selig Harrison has claimed that Pakistan recently handed over the control of its Gilgit-Baltistan region to China. The Pakistani authorities have subsequently denied that this has occurred but accepted Chinese presence there to conduct rescue, relief and reconstruction of the Karakorum highway, including work related to other energy and development projects. Pakistan gave the area full province status in 2009, a move criticized by India, which considers the region as occupied territory. Nonetheless, Gilgit-Baltistan has become critically important in establishing a rail as well as an energy link between Pakistan and China, and stretching all the way to the port city of Gwadar.

Since the report of Chinese presence in the area, India has been in a state of alarm about what this means for the future of Jammu and Kashmir. China also recently denied a visa to an Indian general whose command includes the region of Jammu and Kashmir. According to media reports, since the incident, the defense relations between the two countries have been suspended.

In the aftermath of the devastating floods many areas of northern Pakistan have been cut-off from the rest of the country. Moreover, the road link between China and Pakistan had initially been interrupted as a result of an overflowing lake, created by an avalanche near village Attabad. Fearing an aggressive move on part of India as a consequence of the vacuum, its possible that Pakistan may have requested China to send its forces, as its own military is already preoccupied with fighting extremists and providing rescue and relief efforts. The following scenarios would have also be on the mind of Pakistan’s military to have invited the Chinese:

Dr. J. Bruce Amstutz, the U.S. Charge De Affairs in Afghanistan from 1977 to 1980, in his book Afghanistan: The First Five Years of Soviet Occupation has this to say regarding the administrative takeover of the Wakhan Corridor by the Soviets in the fall of 1980, during its occupation of Afghanistan:

• By annexing the Corridor the Soviets could directly control the 37 mile-long Afghan-Chinese border and reduce any chance of the Chinese supplying arms to the Mujahidin.
• They would be able to control the 4,923 meters-high Vakhjir Davan Pass, which provided the only access from the Soviet Union to China along the long and mountainous China-Soviet border. This pass was of strategic importance if the Soviets wanted to cut off the China-Pakistan all-weather Karakoram Highway, further towards the east.
• The Chinese interpreted the Soviet takeover of Wakhan and their establishment of a military presence there in the 80s as an attempt to penetrate the northern areas of Pakistan and to disturb the security situation in Pakistan.

Presently, Afghanistan is under the control of NATO alliance and thus the chief worry would not have been from the Russians. From all indications, Chinese and American rivalry is heating up in the region as well as in the pacific realm. As a result Pakistan is being pulled in different directions and having to cover more than one risk. The tussles which were previously peripheral to the country are now moving inward, and perhaps escalated by the ruinous floods.

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Context

In the aftermath of the devastating floods the Pakistan’s democratic setup continues to exhibit exceptional weakness and disarray. Sensing an opportunity, the terrorists have unveiled their new strategy and suicide attacks have been initiated across the urban centers of the country. These urban hubs have come out relatively unscathed from the affects of the ravaging floodwaters. Pakistan faces daunting choices as the new reality unfolds.

Analysis

The suicide attack in Lahore occurred on September 1st followed up by Quetta blast today, and accompanied by smaller terror related incidents in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. Subsequently, according to media reports an American drone attack took place North Waziristan against the extremists. Pakistan Air Force also recently conducted strikes in Khyber tribal agency. A new phase of the war against terror in flood ravaged Pakistan has thus begun.

The daunting choices confronting Pakistan in the emerging reality are: to continue the fight against extremists and thus sustain the foreign funding it desperately requires to keep its economy afloat, conduct rescue, relief and rehabilitation efforts, and to rebuild the infrastructure badly impacted by the floods. On the contrary, if the country fails to do an effective job of countering the extremists, the foreign financial assistance could dry up, escalating local discontent, and increasing the possibility that external powers will take matters in their own hands, as has often been threatened in the past. However, foreign intervention at least at this juncture is unlikely barring significant deterioration of the situation or a major terrorist attack abroad. As seen in Iraq, the new US strategy is premised on working behind the scenes, using covert operations and special forces, and reinforcing the capacity of its partners.

As previously noted by PoliTact, with the political set-up of the country not functioning, both the responsibilities of fighting extremism and providing relief for the flood victims have fallen upon the army. Thus an essential part of the extremist strategy would be to keep the military distracted and engaged. Moreover, the extremists will escalate their drive to bring about a mutiny against the state by capitalizing on the disenchantment of the flood impacted rural masses.

The choices for Pakistan army appear to be mutually exclusive. If the military decides to continue tackling extremism then the rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts will be greatly impeded, causing the disillusioned citizens to join the insurgency. If it decides to focus on rehabilitation, the extremists will get room to expand their influence further and increase the chances of foreign intervention. The military, however, does not have the capacity to address both flood relief and extremism simultaneously, and this points more towards either political reconciliation with some groups or allowing foreign forces to assist in the counter insurgency efforts with in Pakistan.

As the gap between the public sentiments and the state increases the questions regarding the ownership of the war are going to be revisited. Interestingly, the major political parties of the country have also started talking about a revolution. It’s not clear at this point if this is the same revolt the extremists are striving for as well. Furthermore, against whom the revolution will be carried out also remains murky. Nonetheless, political parties perhaps sensing the mood of the masses want to be on the side of popular sentiment if indeed a revolution is in the offing. Obviously, a sea change is occurring in the political landscape of Pakistan and it is not clear which way the nations military will go.

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The post The Start of a New Phase of War Against Terror in Pakistan – The Nations Fight Against Itself Escalates appeared first on Politact.

Context

The Afghan national security adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta was recently visiting US. In an article published in Washington Post on August 23, he blamed the role of Pakistan in addition to corruption inside the Afghan government for the predicament facing the country. He advised the US to re evaluate its strategic partnership with Pakistan as it has sustained supporting the extremists, which is leading to the erosion of assistance for the Afghan war.

The Afghan officials went as far as to suggest that Pakistani generals should be barred from visiting United States, perhaps modeled on the recent denial of visa to Lt-Gen BS Jaswal. He is the Indian Army’s Commander-in-Chief for Northern Command that includes Jammu and Kashmir, and was schedule for a regular official visit to China.

Analysis

The Afghan national security adviser went on to write:

“It is my firm conviction that securing our people, districts and towns from terrorists; institutionalizing the rule of law; and fighting corruption are necessary steps toward building a strong and responsive state. But that is not enough. No domestic measure will fully address the threat of international terrorism, its global totalitarian ideology or its regional support networks. Dismantling the terrorist infrastructure is a central component of our anti-terror strategy, and this requires confronting the state that still sees terrorism as a strategic asset and foreign policy tool.”

Ever since a democratic set-up was installed in Pakistan, the Afghan and Pakistan governments were believed to be cooperating more closely in fighting extremism. The consequence of this close cooperation resulted in a feeling of being ‘left out’ and not ‘properly’ consulted, on part of the US.

Under international pressure to deal with rampant corruption, Afghanistan is becoming increasingly frustrated by the global attention and sympathy Pakistan is generating in the aftermath of the devastating floods. It perhaps also senses an opportunity as the prospect of weakened Pakistan looms on the horizon. Due mainly to its rescue and relief efforts, the graph of Pakistan army’s image is on the rise both domestically and internationally. This is troubling for India and Afghanistan as they have worked feverishly against this trend. The official reports recently leaked by Wikileaks were considered by many in Pakistan to be part of this global campaign towards maligning the repute of Pakistan’s military.

The Pak-Afghan relations appears to be heading towards turbulent waters once again. PoliTact will be watching this unfolding trend and its possible implications on the politics of the region.

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Context
As the US continues to withdraw its combat troops from Iraq it is pertinent to take a step back and look at the current state of the region. With skirmishes between Israeli and Lebanese forces, new dynamics arising between Syria and Iran and an aggressive Russian posturing in the region there is no shortage of fault lines to keep those with vested interests in the Middle East concerned. The evolving Sunni-Shiite dynamics are also being tested as the cold tussle between Iran and the US plays out in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. Iran and Saudi Arabia are also speeding up their efforts to assist the flood-impacted people of Pakistan.

Analysis

Lebanon-Israel

The classic neighborly dispute over fences and hedges took on a sinister turn in early August as an Israeli tree-trimming along the Lebanese border dissolved into an exchange of fire which left three Lebanese soldiers, one journalists and one Israeli officer dead. Typically both sides claim the tree was on their side of the border. The minutiae of whose tree it was and where the tree was growing aside, the escalation of tensions over such a small issue is a stark reminder that the Lebanon/Israel conflict is far from resolved.

In 2006 an uneasy peace was achieved after a month of heavy violence between Israel and Hezbollah which claimed over 1000 lives, primarily on the Lebanese side. Hezbollah declared victory at the time simply due to the fact of its survival and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah enjoyed supreme popularity throughout both the Sunni and Shiite Middle East. At the time the Lebanese Army stayed out of the fray, perhaps vainly hoping that the Israelis might succeed in ridding Lebanon of the Iran backed Hezbollah. After seeing the overwhelming support Hezbollah garnered within Lebanon and the region at large for taking on Israel in a ‘David and Goliath’ type struggle the Lebanese Government seems to have understood that Hezbollah is more than just a foreign-backed organization, but has real roots in Lebanon.

At the time of the border clash on August 5, Hezbollah remained restrained, not joining the Lebanese forces. However if any such occurrences happen again, Nasrallah has vowed he will not stay on the sidelines a second time.

These events coincide with the accusation by Hezbollah that Israel was involved in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. At the time the popular opinion was that Syria was behind the attack, but Hezbollah maintains that while Syria had some to gain from Hariri’s demise, it had more to lose. Israel, on the other hand had much to gain, according to Hezbollah and various unpopular voices such as German journalist Jurgen Cain Kulbel in his book “The Hariri File: Silenced Evidence in Lebanon.” Hariri’s rise to power was seen as a beacon of hope for many that a stable, liberal Lebanon was on the horizon once again but the glimmer of unity between the many Lebanese political factions also died with Hariri. This is what many see as the Israeli rationale for the assassination.

Ironically the charge from Nasrallah of Israel’s involvement comes just as a UN report into the 2005 assassination is set to be released-the report is thought to link Hezbollah to the assassination. If the report places blame on Hezbollah’s shoulders then it further implicates Hezbollah backer Iran, because on all sides there is agreement that the assassination was too sophisticated to have been carried out without the support and expertise of well-trained, government-supported individuals. Whether they were Iranian National Guards or Mossad agents may never be fully understood.

The current danger with the implication of Hezbollah in the attack is that it may spark a renewal of tensions, if not violence, between the Sunni backers of Hariri and the Shiite supporters of Hezbollah let alone rekindling tensions with Israel. By suggesting Israel’s involvement, Nasrallah may be trying to mitigate the fallout from the pending UN report because enmity against Israel has proved to be a uniting force in Lebanon.

The Troubled Iranian Security Belt

As the inflammatory accusation was passed by Nasrallah, Iran made it clear that its full support was behind Hezbollah by declaring that: “Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan are Iran’s security belt.” If being on the Iranian “security belt” list means being in political turmoil, rife with internal disharmony and a playground for larger world powers, it’s not a list any country should be proud to be on-one wonders why Pakistan wasn’t included, as it certainly fits the bill. But in all seriousness, the declaration was more than just a show of support for Nasrallah: it was a thinly veiled “thumb-to-nose” at the US and Israel. After years of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US would hardly be happy to hear that their efforts have served none of the goals they intended and created exactly the opposite scenario they want: a strong Iran, confident that the chaos on two of its borders is keeping it secure. As for Lebanon, the Iranian ‘piece de resistance’ is Hezbollah.

But the Iranian’s may have been premature in declaring Lebanon a part of the dubious ‘security belt’ as Saudi and Syrian actions have recently put their stamp on the political landscape. Syria remained rather ‘hands-off’ regarding Lebanon after the withdrawal of its troops following the Hariri assassination and the so-called ‘Cedar Revolution’ which followed; it now looks to be moving into a hegemonic role once again.

In mid-August King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visited Lebanon accompanied by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. The two parties met with current Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and there appears to be a tacit agreement that Syria, with the backing of the Saudis and other Sunni Arab states is to take a more dominant role in Lebanon once again-to the detriment, of course, of Iranian influence.

This new development is likely to complicate relations between Syria and Iran. It is not immediately foreseeable that the relationship will be severed-Syria still has strategic reason’s of its own to maintain ties with Tehran-but it will serve to caution the Iranians that Syria may not be counted on as deeply as once thought. The Syrian move also consolidates the Sunni bloc of Arab states and is most likely a bid to counter the growing perception that Shiite Iran is the regional heavyweight.

A Nuclear Iran and Russia’s New Stance

Iran’s nuclear ambitions continue to garner the condemnation of the international community, even though Russia-a party to the new round of sanctions-is going ahead with fuelling the Bushehr Iranian nuclear reactor. The Bushehr plant is to be Russian-operated, so is of less concern than the Iranian’s own enrichment programs. But the Bushehr plant has been plagued with upsets leading up to the fueling date of August 21, 2010. Three UAV’s reportedly crashed into the plant on August 1, after which the head of the Iranian drone program was killed in a mysterious bomb blast at his house, effectively stalling the drone program for the foreseeable future. On August 17 an Iranian jet crashed just six kilometers outside of the plant but all of these incidences have been in one way or another written off by Iranian officials. What is intriguing about these occurrences is that they all seem to hint at internal conflict and no fingers have been pointed at any outside forces.

Russia appears to be backing Iran in more than just the Bushehr operations. Russian S-300 interceptors now line the shores of the Black Sea-the same missile interceptors previously promised to Iran. There is speculation that contrary to Moscow’s line that the S-300 were moved into Abkhazia to counter possible trouble from Georgia, the defense system has been set up to ensure any Israeli/US launch against the Bushehr reactor in Northern Iran would be promptly dealt with by the S-300 interceptors. The S-300 batteries are in close proximity to two large American air bases, which Israel has used to practice tactical training operations for touch-and-go attacks. This move by Russia may also be to counterweigh the US defense systems in place in the region and the possibility of a new NATO missile defense system under contemplation at this year’s Lisbon Summit scheduled for November.

The reaction from the US to both the S-300 and the fuelling of Bushehr has been quite mild. This has more to do with the fact that the US is presently trying to ‘reset’ relations with Russia than it not being concerned with the support Iran is receiving. On the contrary anything emboldening Iran would be of the utmost concern to the US, especially as the withdrawal of combat troops will at this stage be leaving a government-less Iraq ripe for Iranian influence.

While Syria and Saudi seemed to have nipped Lebanon from the triumphant ‘security belt’ for the Iranians, Iraq still remains at great risk of a resurgence of violence and chaos, especially if sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shiite are aggravated. If there is one place in the world where it is easy to ignite such tensions, Iraq is it, and Iran is in a supremely confident place that it can pull the strings in Iraq if need be.

The connection between the current events in the Middle East is also the Sunni-Shiite divide: if tensions flare up in one part of the region there is every likelihood that this will spill over into others and it won’t take much flare to kindle the sectarian tensions in Iraq. On the other hand as Pakistan deals with the social, economic and political aftermath of the devastating floods, the Iranian position is likely to get stronger in the AfPak region, and should be a cause of great concern for Saudi Arabia and the United States.

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Context

PoliTact recently released a report laying out implications of the devastating floods on Pakistan’s geopolitics and geostrategic posture. It’s premature to present a realistic measurement of the flood damage on Pakistan’s infrastructure and economy as the rains have continued in various parts of the country. Moreover, as the swelled river Indus and its tributaries make their way down from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa to Punjab and Sind province, the consequences are exasperating. PoliTact has been able to develop the following damage appraisal based on credible media reports and from its own sources in the region. The attempt here is to present the wide reaching impact of the floods on the economy of the country.

Analysis

From all indications, Pakistan is heading for a dangerous drop in strategic food stocks in the coming days and months. The world prices of sugar and wheat were already rising as the country is expected to import. The following damage assessment will be updated as new numbers become available.

Number of People Impacted

According to a UN estimate the floods have impacted close to 20 million people including 6 million children, while close to 1600 have lost their lives so far. About 6 million people are homeless and out in the open with no shelter and food supplies.

Damage to Property

A total of 724,000 homes have been destroyed according to a Pakistan government estimate.

Flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have washed away 42,000 houses. According to World Food Programme a total of 97 villages have been impacted in Peshawar, 105 in Nowshera, 80 in Charsada, and 182 in Mardan district.

Damage to Agriculture Sector and Livestock:

According to agricultural officials in Pakistan the floods have destroyed about 500,000 tons of wheat. Furthermore, as many as two million bales of cotton were lost and 17 million acres of agricultural land destroyed based on a World Bank report.

Bloomberg reported quoting a farmers group in Pakistan that floods have damaged more than a million acres of sugar cane, cotton and rice fields and caused 250 billion rupees ($2.9 billion) of agricultural losses. The President of World Bank, Robert Zoellick has put the number to be around $1 billion.

Chairman of Pakistan Agri Forum reported to Bloomberg that floodwaters have destroyed 700,000 acres of planted cotton, 200,000 acres each of rice and cane and 300,000 acres of animal fodder. Additionally, 100,000 head of livestock has perished. Based on one estimate, half of Pakistan’s livestock has vanished overnight.

Damage to Infrastructure

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani stated that the disaster has pushed the country back 50 years in terms of infrastructure, electricity and communication. Hundreds of miles of electricity pylons and gas lines have been destroyed and numerous power stations have been flooded.

In the militancy infected Khyber Paktunkwa province 112 schools, 210 hotels, 137 bridges, hundreds of kilometers of roads, innumerable shops and buildings have been washed away. The whole of Charsadda district and a major portion of Nowshera are swamped.

According to Chief Minister of Sind province, up to 40 kilometers of Indus Highway has been washed away. The rough estimates indicate that losses by Sind to be around of 35 billion rupees, excluding crops.

Total Impact on the Economy

A rough estimate put together by a brokerage firm in Pakistan, Topline Securities, suggests the economy may lose up to 1 percent of its gross domestic product, or $1.8 billion. Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance has put the loss to be around to 2 to 3 percent of the GDP, or $4.09 billion to $5.09 billion. A farmers group quoted above has put the total agriculture loss alone to be around $2.9 billion. In working with Pakistan, the Asian Development Bank and World Bank are expected to complete a survey of the damage in about two weeks.

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Context

According to official estimates from the Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) the unprecedented flooding has affected around 12 million, with more than 1500 people dead. The UN officials are classifying the scope of the disaster to be larger than 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 earthquake in northern Pakistan and the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti put together.

The gushing waters have destroyed whole villages, infrastructure, ruined food crops. The devastation is unparalleled in Pakistan’s history and the death toll from food shortages and water-borne diseases is likely to rise in the coming months.

Aside from the immediate tragedy of the floods, a careful examination is needed to evaluate the longer-term impact of the floods on Pakistan’s economy, the fight against extremism and NATO supplies to Afghanistan. As the scale and scope of he devastation becomes clear, Pakistan may be forced to revamp its existing geostrategic posture. Additionally, the major political parties of the country appear to be conducting business as usual and are failing to foresee the emerging, dramatically transformed, political landscape.

Analysis

Pakistan Army, Politicians and Extremists

The massive floods have affected only a few areas where the army is actively conducting military operations. Swat valley being one exception and it has suffered acutely from the floods. However, the army operation in the valley is all but completed and only a mopping up operation is still ongoing. The troops in Swat, as expected, are involved in the rescue and relief operations, but not to the detriment of the military operations.

On the other hand, North and South Waziristan have been unaffected by the large-scale floods and the army troops there are unlikely to be moved to other areas for relief and rescue. Similarly, the army is conducting operations in Darra Adam Khel and Orakzai Agency. Both were untouched by flood waters though the areas faced heavy rains. Up north, the valley of Peshawar was, however, flooded. Nowshera city was hit hard by the floods but the city hosts a large cantonment and did not need army personnel deployed from elsewhere to help with relief efforts.

Most of the flood damage in Kyber-Pakhtunkhwa province has occurred in areas around the rivers as oppose to the remote mountainous locations where Taliban and other extremists are active. One of the main reason extremists have been successful in Waziristan and other remote tribal agencies was the poor state of the local economy and lack of government services. The extremists have been comparatively less triumphant in the fertile valleys that surround the rivers of Indus, Kabul and Swat in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The floods appear to have disproportionately impacted people in the valleys and if they are not rehabilitated quickly, we could see support for religious extremists grow in these areas.

In addition to playing a dominant role in the fight against extremism, Pakistan army is also now overseeing the relief and rescue operations and to monitor the unfolding crisis. The rains have continued and several dams in the country are under pressure as water levels are still rising. With political system of the country not functioning ideally, the Army is being forced to take on additional roles.

There are an estimated 50,000 troops involved in rescue and relief efforts. Much of the Pakistan armed forces air power, particularly helicopters have been relegated for use with rescue missions; the PAF deputed all its C-130 aircraft for relief and rescue. The ground troops are dependent on close air support to conduct counter insurgency operations and thus in the absence of this facility the pace of these operations is likely to slow down. The floods have forced the military to shift its focus to rescue, relief and rehabilitation efforts (winning hearts and minds), as oppose to fighting the extremists.

Meanwhile, according to media reports, the Pakistani Taliban have also announced to suspend their military operations and carry out relief efforts. This could be, however, a tactical move and a decoy to hide the disruption and disarray caused by flood waters to the terrorist infrastructure and coordination. As the armed forces are distracted in dealing with the floods, the country is by and large vulnerable to further attacks on one hand, and ripe for militant reorganization and recruitment on the other.

The greater concern for Pakistan is that militant organizations will capitalize on the misery and suffering of the flood victims and the perceived ineptitude of the government rescue efforts. The ruling party has faced severe criticism on account of President Asif Ali Zardari’s visit to the UK and France at a time where large swathes of land in the country are flooded and people are dying. Moreover, the ruling party has been unable to coordinate and plan the kind of rescue and relief that the people expected and circumstances have demanded.

The local organizations and religious charities were quicker to act and start relief efforts than the authorities. Authorities are concerned that groups such as Falah-e-Insaniat, who have provided thousands of people with flood aid, are using charity work as a way of recruiting supporters for militant organizations across Pakistan; Falah-e-Insaniat is linked to Jamat ud Dawa and Lashkar e Taiba.

NATO Supply Lines

The issue of supplies continues to haunt NATO commanders in Afghanistan. Around 75 per cent of NATO’s supplies pass via Pakistan and the logistics has been the achilles’ heel for the US and NATO troops. There is no safe route on which the coalition troops can rely.

The NATO supplies originate from Karachi and move on two routes. The first is through Chaman in Balochistan province and the second goes north and enters Afghanistan through Torkham and the Khyber Pass. The route through Balochistan has seen the lesser number of attacks on vehicles carrying goods for the NATO troops; however, the attacks have been on the increase. On the other hand, trucks on the longer route through Khyber Pass have faced more frequent attacks over the years with casualties now running into several hundred.

The floods in Pakistan will have a definite impact on NATO logistics. According to local media reports more than 5,000 oil tankers and trucks carrying goods for the NATO troops are stranded in Dera Ismail Khan, Zhob and Qila Saifullah, as the roads are either impassable due to the flood waters or washed away. The Dera Ismail Khan route ends up at Torkham while the Zhob and Qila Saifullah are in Balcohistan and lead to the Chaman border. On August 7, the flood waters entered the southern province of Sindh, thereby further affecting the supplies that are taken through Punjab and Khyber-Paktunkhwa provinces.

From time to time NATO and US officials have looked for alternative routes to decrease their dependence on Pakistan.  They have evaluated the use of the Iranian supply route originating from the Persian Gulf port of Charbahar and a Northern route through Central Asia. However, geopolitical realities and tussles of global powers have made the use of these routes either expensive or extremely time consuming.

The ravaging floods in Pakistan will have a significant impact on the counter insurgency operations. If critical roads and bridges have been washed away as reported, the supply line passing through Pakistan will slow down, thus impeding the NATO mission and US surge strategy in Afghanistan.

In addition to damaging the infrastructure, the public reputation of the ruling party has been severely dented. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has been particularly slow in gauging the severity of the crisis and nature seems to have utterly rearranged the political landscape of Pakistan. A large number of dislocated people will soon be demanding relief and rehabilitation at a scale not seen before in the history of the country. The economy of Pakistan was already crumbling as a consequence of the war against terror. The devastation brought by the floods will sink the economy even deeper.

With the failing economy, it will be harder and harder for Pakistan and its army to maintain the present strategic outlook, while increasing foreign dependence. In this environment, as the focus shifts to survival, the threat perception of the country is bound to deviate and this will make it difficult to keep the spotlight on the fight against extremists. The debilitating floods in Pakistan could dramatically shift the focus of the war against Pakistan origin extremists towards a political solution, and winning hearts and minds of the masses.

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The post A Paradigm Shift Floods in Pakistan; Impact on the Economy, Fight Against Extremism and NATO’s Operation in Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.