Context

The court martial proceedings presently underway in Pakistan against Brigadier Ali Khan, exemplify the strains with in its Army, as the nation carries out the war against extremists. Many in Pakistan disown the war stating that the country is fighting the American war for military and civilian assistance. The trial is likely to increase western apprehensions regarding radicalization of Pakistan Army.

Analysis

Brigadier Ali was taken into custody from his office at General Headquarters (GHQ) last year and interrogated over his alleged links with the banned outfit Hizb ut Tahrir (HuT). The charge sheet accuses him of inciting mutiny against the civilian government and plotting an attack on GHQ with civilian and military officers.

According to the witness of defense counsel Major Suhail, Brigadier Ali Khan hatched a conspiracy to attack GHQ with an F16 jet while a meeting of the corps commanders was taking place. Major Suhail also stated that the Brigadier Ali was in contact with HuT and had also succeeded in gaining support from Triple One Brigade, including a few generals
According to BBC, during a meeting with HuT, Brigadier Ali drew maps highlighting his plan and wanted to take over the government with two to three hundred armed men. Moreover, he planned to attack US bases in Pakistan, and other locations where Black Water was suspected to be based.

Brigadier Ali has filed petition in the Lahore High Court through a retired Colonel Imamurraheem, pleading that the court martial proceedings against him be declared illegal. Justice Ijaz Ahmed of the Lahore High Court has demanded the Defense Secretary to respond quickly to these allegations that the military is trying to manipulate the court martial proceedings

According to the counsel of Brigadier Ali, he petitioned, “I have been retired from Pakistan Army and they [army] have charged me with heinous crimes without any proof.”
HuT has criticized the court-martial proceedings of Brigadier Ali Khan and four other military officers, for their alleged ties to the group. Statements from HuT published on its website states that Brigadier Ali had an illustrious military career spanning thirty-two years and he come from a humble origin. The statement adds that he wanted Pakistan to sever it alliance with US as it is on a crusade against the Muslim world.

In an earlier incident, Brigadier Khan had questioned General Musharraf for keeping the details of the agreement and cooperation with the US a secret. This incident caused Musharraf to deny him a promotion to the post of Major General.

US has long suspected that extremists groups have sympathizers with in the Pakistan Army, and has frequently accused the military of double dealings. The West is also worried about the radicalization of Pakistan Army that has nuclear weapons in its arsenal. The trial of Brigadier Ali suggests that the case may be an exception. Furthermore, the trial indicates that Pakistan’s military is determined to take serious action against such elements and to maintain its liberal outlook.

However, as Anti American and nationalistic sentiments have risen in Pakistan, Brigadier Ali Khan’s trial is likely to reinforce western concerns regarding Pakistan Army. US has recently deployed counter-terrorist operatives in India, as well as the Maldives, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. US Pacific commander Admiral Robert Willard told a congressional hearing on the subject that: “We are working very closely with India with regard to their counter-terrorism capabilities and in particular on the maritime domain but also government to government.” The particular threat Willard mentioned was Lashkar-e-Toiba (Let) based out of Pakistan.

The post Court Martial Trial of Brigadier Ali Khan And Radicalization Of Pakistan Army appeared first on Politact.

Context

Trouble in the Maldives is always going to be of interest to two nations in particular: India and China. With the recent political unrest and resignation of President Mohamad Nasheed in early February under what is being termed a coup, the situation in the Maldives is looking grave. India is keen to facilitate political reconciliation in the country and to reestablish itself as Maldives’ best friend in the region, while China is waiting in the wings, ready to take advantage of any opportunity the unrest presents.

Interestingly, at the same time as India is viewing both Pakistan and China as an increased threat, there are cooperative signs between these nations as well.

Analysis

Political Landscape of Maldives

Mohamed Nasheed is sometimes referred to as the ‘Godfather of the Arab Spring.’ He was a political activist and protested against the 30-year rule of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the Maldives. In 2008, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom stepped down after the country’s first free election, where Mohamed Nasheed assumed the presidency. Three years later and the once-lauded President has been forced to step down, he says at gun point, after weeks of violent protests against him.

The Maldivian people grew disenchanted with their President after allegations of continued corruption and failed promises for change. The final straw was when Mohamed Nasheed detained Abdulla Mohamed, Chief Justice of the criminal court. Protests began in earnest and weeks later Mohamed Nasheed was stepping down from his role, to be replaced by his Vice President Waheed Hassan. Waheed Hassan has since called his former president a dictator. The lessons for Arab countries in the after-phase of the Arab Spring are clear.

India And Maldives

While the happenings in the Maldives are perhaps considered a storm in a teacup on the global scale, they are of intense concern to India and China.

India has long courted favor in the Maldives, as much to have a strong presence in the Indian Ocean as to ward off China from doing the same. Indian interests were safeguarded under Nasheed, who confirmed an accord with India protecting Indian interests in the region when he stated while still in office: “We have always categorically stated that we do not want foreign powers, in particular the Chinese, interfering in the Indian Ocean.” The Indian government is so concerned with the instability in the region, that it has sent foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai to convene peace talks between the opposing parties in the Maldives.

Mathai has managed to bring the parties to agreement on early presidential elections, but has also come under fire for appearing to interfere in another country’s internal affairs. India is strongly denying this charge. For India, the crucial thing is to deny China a strong foothold in the country, and it will risk appearing to interfere to achieve this.

China And Maldives

Chinese ambitions in the Maldives stem from the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, a desire for Chinese ports and positions that extend from Port Sudan to Hong Kong. Already they have one port in the Maldives, but India’s close relationship with the Maldives has kept it from developing into more of a stronghold. Other ports in the String of Pearls include the Gwadar port in Pakistan, the Chittagong port in Bangladesh and the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka. India rightly fears the string tightening around its neck.

The Chinese vision for its sea lines in the Indian Ocean highlights the lack of grand strategy in evidence in India. There is certainly a defensive strategy to protect Indian interests, by partnering with Chinese rivals Japan and Vietnam, however there is little in the way of developmental strategy to counter the Chinese influence. India will likely have to partner with the US in the region to counterbalance the strong position of the Chinese. This could be why the US has recently deployed counter-terrorist operatives in India, as well as the Maldives, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Three of the countries are host to Chinese ports.

US Pacific commander Admiral Robert Willard told a congressional hearing on the subject that: “We are working very closely with India with regard to their counter-terrorism capabilities and in particular on the maritime domain but also government to government.” The particular threat Willard mentioned was Lashkar-e-Toiba (Let) based out of Pakistan.

Competition And Cooperation

Interestingly, at the same time as India is viewing both Pakistan and China as an increased threat, there are cooperative signs between these nations as well. Pakistan has just announced that trade with India will be normalized by the end of 2012. This will hopefully bring the trade between the two rivals from $2.7 billion per year to around $9 billion per year once all trade barriers are lifted.

At the same time, Indian military is gearing up to conduct one of its largest war games, less than 200 kilometers from Pakistani border in the Bikaner and Shri Ganganagar districts in Rajasthan. A few months earlier, the country conducted an exercise ‘Sudarshan Shakti’ in Pokharan. The exercise named Shoorveer or Brave Warrior will take place from March to May and will see the deployment of 20,000 troops and 200 Russian-made tanks. Indian Army spokesman colonel Jagdeep Dahiya has stated that the drill would be one of the largest maneuvers ever conducted, involving Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000, Jaguars and the AWACs.

“Battlefield transparency and operational plans based on real-time situational awareness will be
enhanced using intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) inputs from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, radars and satellites,” he added. Dahiya dismissed fears that the drills will heighten tensions with Pakistan, saying India informs Pakistan ahead of such large-scale exercises.

On the other hand, China and India have just launched their first ever maritime talks, with Indian External Affairs Minister S M Krishna promising that all of the ‘sticky’ issues between the countries were addressed: “Every possible issue that is raised whenever India-China dialogue takes place were raised and we have understood each other’s position and we have understood the perspective and we will continue to exchange these.”

While India and China, are doing the simultaneous dance of cooperation and competition, at present Indian influence in the Maldives looks to remain strong.

The post The India, China Vying For Influence In Maldives appeared first on Politact.

Context

Soon after meeting Vice President Joe Biden, President Zardari is heading to US to take part in the memorial services honoring Richard Holbrooke. This article examines the significance of this visit as Mike Mullen declared Pakistan the epicenter of global terrorism today. Facing dire economic prospects, Pakistan appears all set to pursue a political solution while US demands an operation in North Waziristan to deal with Afghan quagmire.

Analysis

The memorial service for Richard Holbrooke has turned in to a mini conference of sorts. Not only will the service provide an opportunity to honor his diplomatic services and achievements, but also an occasion for international dignitaries to informally take stock of the Afghan situation. Special representatives for Afghanistan, from many different countries, are attending. Reportedly, Holbrooke used to have a monthly consultation with this group on the situation of Afghanistan. He was also a staunch supporter of Zardari government.

From the point of view US, Zaradri’s visit provides a good opportunity to get his first-hand impression on the situation of Pakistan and its relations with India, including FATA and Afghanistan, and compare it to the military leadership of the country. It would also be interesting to hear his side of the story on the brazen assassination of the Governor of Punjab, Salman Taseer. There is considerable concern in US on how far the religious extremism has spread in Pakistan and what it means for the future of the country.

Zardari travels to US as a much-weakened President. Just a few days ago his Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led coalition government appeared to be falling apart. The only reason it was able to survive was because it made a swift u-turn under political pressure, and reversed the price hikes on fuel it had announced earlier. Furthermore, the fragility of his government means it lacks political clout to muster support for Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST). The IMF, World Bank, and US economic assistance to Pakistan is dependent on the implementation of these provisions. However, these reforms and taxes are highly unpopular in Pakistan. The economy of the country was already reeling from the impact of terrorism, the floods and the energy crisis has nearly crippled the nation’s economy.

In these circumstances, the nations sentiment including that of its military is fast shifting towards a political solution for Afghanistan quagmire and FATA insurgency. A peace initiative supported by Turkey is gaining ground in the region, and as part of this the head of Afghan Peace Committee Burhanuddin Rabbani, recently visited Pakistan. However, US wants Pakistan to take military action in North Waziristan as that would strengthen its position and operations in Afghanistan, and weaken the bargaining leverage of Afghan Taliban.

This difference of premise was also apparent in the media coverage of Joe Biden’s visit to Pakistan. Pakistan’s media bolstered the country has made clear to US that it would no longer accept any Great Game ambitions in Afghanistan, and foreign interference in FATA. Whereas media coverage in US is represented by Mike Mullen’s statement today, stating that Pakistan was the epicenter of global terrorism and that Pakistan Army knows what it has to do to eliminate safe havens.

At this crucial junction of the Afghan war, Pakistan’s military may have decided its time for a political solution, as it can no longer sustain the conflict economically. Before sitting down for talks, US wants Pakistan to carryout the North Waziristan operation and is willing to provide the economic and military assistance the country needs. With anti-American sentiment running high in Pakistan, and economic situation worsening by the day, no government would be able to survive for long if it chooses to disregard public opinion.

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