China 

The US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday met Xi Jinping, widely expected to be the next Chinese president. He emphasized on strong cooperative relationship with China however, could not force them to abide by the US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. China has reiterated opposition of sanctions, calling them ineffective.
China’s vice foreign minister said that Iran is a major supplier of oil to China and he hopes that China’s oil imports won’t be affected, as it is imperative for their development. However, Beijing has called on Iran and IAEA to cooperate over a new uranium enrichment plant.
China wants to maintain relationship with USA, but taking care of its vital interests. The talks also touched on trade issues and complaints about China keeping its Yuan undervalued, and thus gaining undue advantage on exports. Industry analysts say that even if China agreed, it would be formidable for it to replace Iran as an oil source.

Japan

On Thursday Geithner visited Japan and the country agreed to reduce the import of Iranian oil. Japan said their import of oil from Iran has been reduced over the years, and currently stands at 10%. They are planning to take concrete steps to further cut down this percentage. Japan has said that nuclear issue cannot be ignored by the world and that they fully understand US sanctions on Iran. It is believed that Japan’s move is an effort to protect their banks from sanctions.

EU

EU decided in the beginning of the month to levy an oil embargo, however, numerous details remain unresolved. Europe is collectively the second biggest destination of Iranian oil consumer after China. The countries most dependent on Iranian oil, like Greece, Italy and Spain, want to delay the imposition of the embargo till they find alternative oil suppliers.

India

Indian oil ministry has denied asking the companies to cut imports from Iran, however added that India is looking for alternative supplies. India imports approximately 12% of its oil needs from Iran. India has been struggling to pay for Iranian crude due to previous sanctions on trading with Iran. India has been making payments through Turkey’s Hallbank, a mechanism the officials believe will be cut off under the new US sanctions. An Indian delegation will visit Tehran to explore alternative payment methods and to ensure supplies without breaching sanctions.

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Context

The emergent world has become increasingly multi-polar in nature, represented in the form of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Additionally the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signifies the interests of Central Asian states, and is thought of as the BRICS security arm. India, Pakistan and Iran maintain an observer status on the SCO and are keen to become its full member. PoliTact has been especially interested in studying the connection between BRICS and the SCO, and their reaction to events in countries impacted by the Arab Spring and their position on the developments of the AfPak region. This article explores these linkages by incorporating the views of Chinese, Russian and Indian scholars and officials.

Understanding the positions of the emerging powers has become paramount, as they will play an increasingly important role in determining the fate of existing and future conflicts.

Analysis

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) came into being in 1949 in the aftermath of World War II. The first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay, famously stated the organization’s goal was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” With the end of Cold War and the Warsaw Pact, one of the main premises upon which the NATO military alliance was formulated was gone. The alliance began to look for a new purpose and identity that would keep it united against emerging threats. The war against terror has proven to be one such unifying factor, as has dealing with rogue dictators that threaten western interests, such as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi.

The emergent world, however, has become increasingly multi-polar in nature, represented in the form of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Additionally the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) represents the interests of Central Asian states, and is thought of as the BRICS security arm. India, Pakistan and Iran maintain an observer status on the SCO. PoliTact has been especially interested in studying the connection between BRICS and the SCO, and their reaction to events in countries impacted by the Arab Spring and their position on the developments of the AfPak region.

The cooperation and competition between established and emerging powers is now playing out in key strategic regions of the world, most recently in Libya and Syria. In both cases the positions of BRICS nations were in stark contrast to western powers. In the case of Libya, these nations — including Germany — abstained from voting on the Security Council resolution 1973.

In the recent vote on Syria, Russia and China both vetoed the resolution meant for punishing Syria. The resolution received 9 votes in favor, while India, Brazil, South Africa and Lebanon abstained. Germany this time opted to vote for imposing sanctions on Syria. The role of Turkey, a NATO member, has also been noteworthy. Although it has maintained an aggressive posture towards Israel recently, in the case of Libya and Syria its position has shifted more in line with NATO. This is in contrast to Turkey’s stance towards Iraq war in 2003.

To explore the role of BRICS and SCO towards the AfPak region further, we examined the views expressed at a conference held at the Woodrow Wilson Center in June, titled, BRICS: Shaping the New Global Architecture. We especially focused on the comments of Da Wei, who is the Director of the Presidents Office, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR); Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor in Chief of Russia in Global Affairs; and Inderjit Singh, Professor of National Strategy at the National War College, US National Defense University.

In expressing his views, Da Wei distinguished the role of BRICS countries and the SCO, and avoided making any comparison of the SCO with NATO, or any comment on the role of the SCO in Afghanistan. He clarified that the BRICS are focused on global economic and political affairs while the SCO is more concerned with security issues. He added that BRICS membership is open to other countries and is a forum for emerging powers to dialogue amongst member countries and with other institutions like the SCO. He clarified further that both BRICS and the SCO are not very “strict-tight” organizations.

On the other hand, Fyodor Lukyanov emphasized the role of the SCO in Afghanistan and stated that, “The SCO now is primarily about Afghanistan because this [is] a matter of huge concern for all countries of Central Euro Asia [because of the question of] what will happen in Afghanistan after American and NATO exit, and no body can answer it.” He added that NATO should be very much interested and should encourage the SCO to take over the settlement of this issue and that it’s the only organization that is very well placed to take on this responsibility.

In contrast, while speaking to PoliTact, Dr. Inderjist Singh stressed a regional solution to Afghanistan that includes the interests of India, Russia, China, and Iran. He noted that the invitation recently from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Afghan President Hamid Karzai to join the SCO does not carry much significance, as the country cannot yet ensure its own security — and that’s why the role of Pakistan is important. He commented that Pakistan should not attempt to marginalize the interests of the Northern Alliance and India through the Haqqani network because a stable solution for Afghanistan would have to involve regional powers and the route of negotiations would be better than the use of force.

The Chinese are clearly adopting a cautious posture as oppose to the more aggressive Russian stance. These differences in approach are obviously the result of their respective threat perceptions vis-à-vis the United States and Europe.

The future of the US presence in the region was also a central theme on the agenda of the SCO meeting held in mid June in Kazakhstan. At the meeting, President Medvedev commented that the future of Afghanistan was directly relational to security and stability in all SCO countries and most observer countries, and that the SCO must endeavor to increase cooperation and involvement in Afghanistan to try and ensure stability in a post-US scenario.

In a UN Security Council meeting on September 29th, Russia insisted Afghanistan must stay neutral after troops withdraw from the region. Russian deputy ambassador to the UN, Alexander Pankin said, “if Kabul sets a goal of restoring neutrality as early as now, this can ease the reconciliation dialogue with the opposition.” The diplomat told UN members that military means were not enough to stabilize Afghanistan. Pankin criticized NATO’s ineffectiveness in controlling the situation and warned militancy networks could spread to bordering countries. Russia and China both fear the situation in Afghanistan could destabilize the Central Asian states.

On the other hand, India warned on September 30th against hasty withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. India’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Hardeep Singh Puri stated the stability in the region can only be achieved once terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and Taliban are rooted out of Afghanistan. US and Indian interests are no doubt convergent when it comes to the AfPak region, however, India has consistently taken a position against foreign intervention in both Libya and Syria. It is unlikely; the country would maintain the same position when it comes to threats to its security that emanate from the AfPak region.

The resurgence of Germany and Russia including financial constraints have complicated NATO’s future. NATO is facing a serious identity crisis as member nations contemplate how much the often-popular and long war in Afghanistan and the latest air operations in Libya justify national interests- when many nations’ financial systems are under strain. In a rare blunt parting address on Friday, departing US Defense Secretary Robert urged NATO allies of the US to do and pay more to overcome the coalition’s military weaknesses- raising questions over NATO’s position today and its future. The allies need to do some soul-searching in days to come, with Bin Laden killed, many European nations facing slow economic growth, America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan set to begin and tough questions over how long the aerial campaign in Libya can last.

(A variation of this article also appeared in Pakistan Today.)

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