Pakistan has been in a political and economic downward spiral since Imran Khan’s government was removed in April 2022 through a no-confidence motion. The traditional civil-military tensions have also peaked – the nation faces grave human rights violations, and serious concerns regarding the rule of law are being raised. The future of nuclear-armed state with a population of nearly two hundred and fifty million stands in peril. The nation is also on the front-line of climate crisis – and floods in 2022 cost the country close to $30 billion in losses.

Since gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan has remained aligned with the West. It was a close U.S. ally during the Cold War and during the global war against terror and violent extremism – undertaken in the aftermath of 9/11. However, due to various geopolitical reasons, U.S.-Pakistan relations have stagnated. Some experts argue that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 created a misalignment of interests between the U.S. and Pakistan. Others state that the growing U.S.-India strategic ties and the economic and security initiatives by India with Gulf nations further altered the calculus for Pakistan.

There are two goals for the one-day seminar:

1. To critically examine reasons for the decline of democratic rule, freedom of the press, human rights, and civil liberties in Pakistan, focusing on frayed military-civilian relations, national security and extremism, and internal political-economic factors.
2. To examine the current and future trajectory of U.S.-Pakistan relations with a focus on upcoming elections, the role of the Pakistani diaspora in democracy promotion, and areas of economic development.

Please join us as our assembled scholars and speakers discuss and present their insights into Pakistan’s present political and economic turmoil and deliberate on how to navigate the way forward.  Moreover, they will explore policy options for the U.S. to build a long-term strategic partnership with Pakistan by promoting and upholding shared values and mutual interests.

Speakers

Uzair Younus is a Director of Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council and VP at The Asia Group. He was also a director at Albright Stonebridge Group’s South Asia practice. In this role, he helped clients develop strategies for long-term growth in the region and assess political and economic developments.

Dr. Hassan Abbas is a Distinguished Professor of International Security Studies, Chair of the Department of Regional and Analytical Studies (CISA) at US National Defense University. He was the Distinguished Quaid-i-Azam Chair Professor at Columbia University before joining CISA and has previously held fellowships at Harvard Law School and Asia Society in New York.

Dr. Qamar-ul Huda is a Michael E. Paul Distinguished Visiting Professor of International Affairs, United States Naval Academy (USNA). Formerly Dr. Huda was a Senior Policy Advisor for U.S. Department of State Secretary’s Office for Religion and Global Affairs (S/RGA) where he focused on civil society, religious communities, and diplomacy with non-government organizations. He was also selected as The World’s 500 Most Influential Muslims from 2016-2023, published by The Royal Islamic Strategic Centre, Amman, Jordan.

Arif Ansar is a CEO and Chief Analyst at PoliTact. Arif has over 20 years of consulting experience with various branches of the US government, including USAID, the Department of State, US Geological Survey, and the Department of Defense. His cross industry experience includes Defense-Security, International Development, and Information Technology sectors. From 1998-2000, he was also involved with the Water Rights sub-committee of the Middle East Peace Process (Israel, Jordan, Palestine).

The event is scheduled for August 19, 2023 from 12:00-2:30 pm – and will be held at the Oval Theater, Marshall Student Center, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Ave, Tampa, Fl 33620.

The seminar is being co-organized by PoliTact and The Friends of Pakistan, Tampa, Florida. The is an in-person event, to receive a link for virtual attendance, please send an email to info@politact.com.

The Friends of Pakistan is a community organization made up of professionals which include medical doctors, influential businessmen, and entrepreneurs. The group members are involved in supporting several education and social welfare programs in Pakistan – and increasingly aspire to contribute towards climate resilience related initiatives.

For further information, email: info@politact.com.

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US-Pakistan Relations And Afghanistan Under Biden

The post Examining U.S.-Pakistan Relationship, Current Status Of Human Rights, Civil Society, And Democracy In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Context

Islamic states of the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia were mostly arbitrarily and hastily crafted as the World War ended. Now as a result of factors such as the war against terror and the Arab revolts, the states and societies of these regions are clearly entering a new phase. The liberal and secular influences are consistently shrinking as the Islamists gain strength.

This changeover has direct implications for the institutions that compose a democratic system that are already behaving erratically from Egypt to Pakistan. Moreover, the credibility of the system itself is coming into question in the West, as the extent of the association between money and power gets exposed.

Analysis

Democracy In The West

Three key pillars represent the democratic system of governance: the Parliament (Congress in case of the American system), Judiciary and the Executive. At different points in western history, one or the other branch has exerted disproportionate influence. The American experience provides ample illustration of how these encroachments have historically played out, especially when the President’s party looses majority in the House or the Senate or in dealing with complex societal debates such as abortion, on which the liberal and conservatives have diametrically different stances.

Concerned with what absolute power can do, the founders of the American system of governance put in place elaborate checks and balances. As James Madison put it: “As there is a degree of depravity in mankind, which requires a certain degree of circumspection and distrust: So there are other qualities in human nature, which justify a certain portion of esteem and confidence.”

The unfolding economic recession and banking crisis in the West reveals what the unchecked association between money and power can do to the system. It seems greed did manage to overcome checks and balances. The representatives of the people are now caught between serving interest groups or the welfare of common people and the recent scandals reveal they have repeatedly chosen the former. The political leaders are dependent on funds they generate from these powerful groups to contest elections and thus they cannot afford to alienate them.

Aristotle had forewarned that for a constitutional democracy to work, a large middle class and reasonably fair distribution of property is required.

“Where some own a very great deal of property and others none…there comes about either an extreme democracy or an unmixed oligarchy, or a tyranny may result from both of the two extremes, for tyranny springs from both democracy and oligarchy of the most unbridled kind…”

Clearly, the European and US system of governance is going through a crisis stage.

Democratic Institutions In The Islamic World

Other parts of the world experimenting with democracy are facing the same threat that has shaken the credibility of the western system. The challenge remains, how to manage the influence yielded by the powerful to mold policies and laws in their favor, and against the interests of the people.

Since the end of World War II, the liberals, socialists, and conservatives forces in the Arab world have had their ups and downs. For the most part, their political maneuvering reflected the tensions between the socialist and capitalist models that were playing out globally as part of the Cold War.

Generally, the nationalists in the Arab world were more accepting of socialist influences. The conservative religious influences, on the other hand, have had an uncomfortable political existence. Although religious groups had their utility during the Cold War era, they were otherwise looked upon with distrust, as waiting in hiding for their chance to revive the Ummah and the Khilafat. On the other hand, to maintain their hold on power liberal dictators exploited western fear of conservative forces. At the same time, the western powers also relied on supporting the secular groups to tackle the extremist’s forces.

The institution of the military has traditionally played a pivotal role in balancing these different influences and continues to in places like Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan. In Turkey, the army was the protector of the secularism that was adopted under Ataturk. In Egypt and Pakistan, the military usually balances the liberal, socialist and conservative responses, so that they do not get significantly out of line from what would be acceptable to the global powers. However, due to factors like the war on terror, Arab awakening, corruption and lack of governance, the political landscape has changed considerably. For the first time, the institution of military itself is under threat and pressure to adjust itself to the change in public sentiments.

This change in the worldview, held by a majority of the people, is producing pressures on the usual functioning of the key institutions and pillars of the democratic system. The institutional tussles emerging in Pakistan and Egypt are more about change and status quo and different from the issue and turf oriented battles that are normally witnessed in the West.

For example, the Judiciary in Pakistan has evolved to become the champion of change, while in Egypt it is still acting as a facilitator of status quo being used by the military. On the other hand, the Executive and the Parliament in Egypt have gained credibility as a symbol of change, while in Pakistan the Parliament and the Executive are loosing credibility and are being perceived as ensuring status quo.

What Does Change And Status Quo Means

What the status quo and change have come to represent in these parts of the world also needs to be looked at. In Pakistan, the liberal forces, and the mainstream religious parties, that have long enjoyed western backing, have proven to be ineffective in governing and are often corrupt. They are also blamed for lending support towards the war against terror that has destabilized the country and the economy. The democratic system is perceived to work well for the elites and western interests but not for the people.

This dynamic is similar to the Middle East; the status quo there could not have persisted without western support. In Egypt, change would not have come as quickly if President Obama had not turned his back on Hosni Mubarak. However, now that Muslim Brotherhood is in power, the challenge for the West is how to ensure its interests in Egypt. If the military attempts to circumvent the Brotherhood dominated parliament and executive, as it has, the rage of the street could very well turn against it at some point.

Thus the question is how will the Islamist party whose very ideology is premised on the rejection of man made law, chart its path with in a democratic system. Egypt may prove to be a test case for the rest of the region. How it now reconciles working for the benefit of its people, and the Western interests, will perhaps determine the fate of democracy in other Islamic states, with Iran and Turkey show casing the other alternatives.

The post Understanding the Institutional Tussles In Middle East, Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Context
Faced with a challenging prospect in AfPak region, the US has initiated an intricate dialog process with the three key parties, which are distrustful of each other and the US. The US-Pakistan talks were held in March, followed by US-Afghanistan dialogue in May, and now this week comes the US-India strategic discussion.

To balance the competing vision of three countries with a history of mistrust is a daunting task to say the least. All three countries have at one point or the other felt short-changed at the hands of the US and by each other. PoliTact will be examining the strategic dialogue US is carrying out with Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in a series of articles, juxtaposing various positions and pointing to the intricacies involved.

Analysis

The US and India talks begin this week and the focus most undoubtedly will be on the AfPak situation. India had protested strongly to its inclusion in the Af-Pak group initially, and ever since India has positioned itself as part of the solution not the problem. It is also important to note that two heavy-duty actors of the US AfPak policy, Robert Gates and Holbrooke, are going to be conspicuously missing from the dialogue due to ‘other engagements’.

The absence of Holbrooke eases India’s anxieties regarding giving any impression that there is anything afoot regarding the solution to Kashmir, which is a key Pakistani demand. At the same time, the Defense Department being represented by a delegate other than Secretary Gates must be comforting for the Pakistan generals. During US-Pakistan strategic talks it was General Kiyani who got the highest level of attention at the Defense Department and otherwise. US did not want to hurt its special relationship with the Pakistan Army at this pivotal time of the Afghan war. A high level meeting between the national security establishments of Pakistan and US is taking place in Islamabad next week.

• Afghanistan-Pakistan situation.
•  Reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan.
• India’s Role in Afghanistan and in training of its Army and Security personal.
• Counter-terrorism collaboration between the US and India particularly focused on threats from Pakistani Taliban and Punjabi and Kashmiri groups operating from Pakistan.
•  Convincing US to not supply Pakistan with advanced weaponry, as it will be used against it.
•  India’s help related to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and nuclear safety.
•  The role of China vis-a-vis India.
•  Garnering support for India’s position in the UN Security Council.
•  Expand trade between US and India.
•  Expand defense and technology ventures.

India is concerned that the US and Pakistan might have struck a secret deal on the supply of nuclear technology to Pakistan during the strategic dialogue between the two countries. Former Indian Foreign Secretary Lalit Mansingh has warned the government to remain watchful despite America’s clear assertion that it has no intention of signing a nuclear deal with Pakistan in the near future. India is also skeptical that a greater role for Pakistan in Afghanistan would undermine India’s strategic interests in that country. The country had felt disillusioned after the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue and has been getting closer to Russia, its cold war ally. Furthermore, India is also concerned about the statement made by President Obama during his visit to China, which reinforced the G-2 vision of the world, and seems to entrust China with keeping order in the region.

PoliTact has previously examined theUS-Pakistan strategic dialogue in a three part series, the premise of which was getting Pakistan’s support in resolving the Afghan Conflict. The assessment lead to the conclusion that US partnership with Pakistan has a more regional context. On the contrary, the above listed agenda items reveal US-India relationship has a more global dimension, and is backed by growing economy of India. As part of BRIC, India is increasingly positioning itself for global power status. In addition to US-India talks, PoliTact will next examine the US-Afghan strategic talks and the process of reconciliation initiated by President Karzai of Afghanistan.

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