Pakistan faces a civil-military divide, as the two, clash over a confidential memo. Islamabad’s relationship with the US is believed to be behind the hostilities. The military is in a furor over reports which claim the government asked for Washington’s assistance through a back door channel, to help prevent a potential military coup after Navy SEALs killed Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The allegations have led to the offer of resignation of Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Husain Haqqani.

The Ambassador allegedly drafted the memo and then had it delivered to Admiral Mike Mullen through a confidant. The memo provided by Pakistani-US businessman and the main interlocutor Mansoor Ijaz, stated the civilian government had in return for US intervention, agreed to terminate any “active service officer” who was found to be an accomplice in hiding Bin Laden. The memo also said that the US would be allowed to carry out operations on Pakistani soil. Additionally, Islamabad would hand over Al-Qaeda leaders including Taliban leader Mohammad Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani to Washington. Section S of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, a unit that handles relations with insurgent groups would also be closed according to the memo.

The release of this report has worsened relations between the government and army.

The post Civil-Military Divide Deepens In Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

A military offence will not be launched by Pakistan against the Haqqani network. An official on Monday told AFP the army was looking to consolidate its gain in regions where its troops were already in combat with militants. It would not start any operation in North Waziristan against the group despite tremendous pressure from the US.
General Mattis, commander of the US Central Command was the latest senior commander to hold talks with Pakistani military leaders in a string of meetings this month between military leaders of the two countries.

Washington blames the Haqqani group and the Pakistani ISI for recent attacks on US targets in Afghanistan.

The post Pakistan Says It Cannot Launch Haqqani Offensive appeared first on Politact.

Context

The role of the controversial Haqqani network has come to the forefront in the latest round of tension to hit US-Pakistan relations. Reports coming from Washington and Islamabad are contradictory in regards to the status of the groups and the place it holds in Pakistan, and while both sides are reaffirming that the US-Pak ties is a vital one, the war of words is getting uglier by the day.

The Pakistanis have not kept it secret that they consider the Haqqani group a significant player in a post-US Afghanistan, and have engaged with leaders of the group as stakeholders in the Afghan reconciliation process. They have claimed to have repeatedly told the US not to misconstrue this contact as undermining the US efforts in Afghanistan. On the other hand, US is threatening to declare the group a terrorist organization, that would exclude it from any negotiated settlement.

The dynamics surrounding the role of Haqqanis has to be understood in the larger struggle that is unfolding in the AfPak region. In a series of articles, PoliTact would be covering the following key themes around the Afghan Conflict:

1. The competing narratives on who has the initiative in Afghanistan.
2. The status of political reconciliation with Taliban and peace process.
3. The significance of ‘Taliban Offensive’ unfolding in Afghanistan.
4. The status of US, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Taliban strategies on the desired future outcome.
5. The options of US and Pakistan regarding the Haqqani network.
6. The global geopolitical context and US-Islamic world relations.

This article sets the stage for this thorough examination.

Analysis

Mike Mullen’s Statement

The already-complicated US-Pakistan relationship hit a new low on September 22 when Admiral Mike Mullen labeled the Haqqani network a “veritable arm” of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). In the same breath he stated that the group was responsible for the US embassy attack in Kabul on September 13, which is a very easily interpreted as Mullen holding Pakistan responsible for the attack.

Pakistan’s relationship with the Haqqani network, and other similarly cast groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) has long been a thorn in the side of US-Pak relations, with the US persistently demanding the nation to come down stronger on these outfits, which seem to enjoy a considerable immunity in the country.

The recent statements by Admiral Mullen have caused quite a stir in Pakistan, especially among the military that previously considered their relationship with Mullen quite amicable. Pakistan’s Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has labeled Mullen’s comments “very unfortunate and not based on facts.” Kayani further indicated that he was personally affronted by Mullen’s finger-pointing because the week before Kayani and Mullen had held an extended meeting in Spain which he called “quite constructive.”

In the same statement, Kayani indicated his surprise at the US singling out Pakistan for its connection with the group, as “Admiral Mullen knows fully well which countries are in contact with the Haqqanis.” It was intimated that several EU countries, as well as the US have also had contact with the Haqqanis in view of engaging them in the Afghan reconciliation process.

The Pakistanis have not kept it secret that they consider the Haqqanis a significant player in a post-US Afghanistan, and have engaged with leaders of the network as stakeholders in the Afghan reconciliation process. They have claimed to have repeatedly told the US not to misconstrue this contact as undermining the US efforts in Afghanistan.

What would be of great concern for the Pakistanis at this point is whether or not the US is setting the scene for unilateral action against the Haqqani network; building a narrative of Pakistani complicity and unwillingness to cooperate that will support such action. Another strike like that which took out Osama bin Laden by the US on Pakistani soil would be enough to bring relations to breaking point.

Wider Implications

The regional implications of Mullen’s statement mean that any action traced back to the Haqqani network, and as an extension LeT can now be reasonably blamed on Pakistan. In a sense it gives regional players a carte blanche to implicate Pakistan, which is especially concerning, given that its neighbors India, Afghanistan and Iran have already accused Pakistan of using proxies to further their agenda in the region. Similarly in Afghanistan, if the recent killing of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani is traced back to the Haqqani network, Afghanistan-Pakistan relations will be in dire straights.

This greatly undermines Pakistan’s position in the region, which comes as a blow considering how energetically Pakistan has been refocusing itself regionally, and distancing itself from simply being seen as a US team player.

While the accusation from Mullen is serious, it is obvious that this is a warning shot. If there was concrete evidence that Pakistan was behind an attack on American installations in Afghanistan, we would most definitely be seeing more than a war of words at this point. The Pakistani response has also been quite constrained given the gravity of the charge leveled at them. This appears to be a case of pushing boundaries and testing breaking points.

The game is a dangerous one however, because it is moving relations to such a point that one incident – a new attack by Haqqanis for instance, or another unilateral strike by the US – can push things into dangerous territory. And let’s not forget that while government officials and informed onlookers may understand the subtleties of the game, the public at large on both sides are rapidly loosing site of the reasons for US-Pak friendship. And we have all been reminded through the Arab Spring uprisings just how powerful public opinion can be.

The post Haqqani Network, The Future Of Afghan Conflict And US-Pakistan Relations appeared first on Politact.

US military official, Admiral Mike Mullen on Thursday accused Pakistan of exporting extremism to Afghanistan. The officer claimed the Haqqani network was a “veritable arm” of Pakistan’s intelligence agency; the ISI. He said the militant group with support from the ISI was responsible for the truck bomb attack of Sept 11. Mullen also blamed both groups for the assault on the US embassy in Kabul earlier this month.

In an address to the US senators Mullen said “In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan and most especially the Pakistani Army and ISI, jeopardizes not only the prospect of our strategic partnership, but also Pakistan’s opportunity to be a respected nation with legitimate regional influence,”

The US has repeatedly criticized Pakistan for not taking stronger action against the Haqanni group.

The post Haqqani Network Is Linked To ISI: Mullen appeared first on Politact.

Another CIA station chief for Pakistan has reportedly left Islamabad last week amid growing tensions between the intelligence services of the two nations in the wake of the Raymond Davis incident and the US operation that killed Bin Laden in Abbottabad. American officials said that the station chief, who can’t be named under US secrecy laws, left because of illness, but representatives from both sides have given sufficient hints to suggest the departure was part of a wider problem affecting intelligence cooperation between Islamabad and Washington, including a growing trust deficit. The departing CIA station chief had just served seven months in Pakistan.

The post Another CIA Station Chief Leaves Pakistan appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency appears to have benefited the most from the release of a CIA contractor, by forcing the American agency to realize its significance to the US mission in Afghanistan and restricting US activities in Pakistan. CIA contractor Raymond Davis was acquitted of murder charges by a court in Pakistan on Wednesday and freed after “blood money” was paid to the families of the victims. Davis shot dead two men he claimed were trying to steal money from him in Lahore, Pakistan, on 27th January.

The post CIA Sees Its Role Cut Down In Pakistan Following Murder Row appeared first on Politact.

In a latest sign that relations between Islamabad and Washington continue to deteriorate, US officials have now blamed Pakistani intelligence agency ISI for spying on the Pakistani-Americans and intimidating them. The recent accusations, aired Sunday via leaks in the New York Times, come just days after the FBI arrested Kashmiri lobbyist Ghulam Nabi Fai for allegedly being funded by the ISI to influence US policy makers. Unnamed US interlocutors have now released the name of another undercover ISI operative, Mohammed Tasleem, who works as an attaché in the Pakistani Consulate in New York, for allegedly spying on Pakistani dissidents in the US.

The post US Accuses ISI of Spying On Pakistani-Americans appeared first on Politact.

The CIA has reportedly used unmanned drones for the first time to target commanders of Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, a move coinciding with the announcement of America’s new counterterrorism strategy shifting the campaign against extremism from costly battlegrounds toward expanded secret operations. The attacks in Somalia, which apparently wounded two commanders of the al-Shabab group last week, bring the number of states where drone aircrafts have been deployed to six: Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Yemen and now the restive East African country which US officials see as a key terror base following Bin Laden’s assassination in Pakistan.

The post CIA Expands Its Drone Campaign against Al-Qaeda appeared first on Politact.

Pakistan’s top intelligence agency has taken into custody five Pakistani informants who provided information to the CIA in weeks leading up to the operation that killed Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, US officials have said. The informants include a military major who, according to officials, copied the number plates of vehicles visiting Bin Laden’s residence in the days before the operation. While the fate of these five men is unclear, US officials said CIA Director Leon Panetta raised the matter with Pakistani intelligence and military officers last week during his visit to Islamabad.

The post Pakistan Detains CIA Informants in Abbottabad Raid appeared first on Politact.

Context
Pakistan has urged the US to steeply cut the number of Special Operations Forces and CIA operatives working in the country and halt drone attacks aimed at Islamist militants operating in its tribal areas. The request was personally made by Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani, according to US and Pakistani officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on this sensitive issue. The scale of the demands came to light as Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the chief of Pakistani intelligence agency ISI, arrived Monday in Washington for almost four hours of discussions with CIA Director Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. The meetings are part of efforts to mend the already distrustful and tentative ties between the two spy agencies.

The post Pakistan Urges U.S. To Curb CIA Activities appeared first on Politact.