Context

Trouble in the Maldives is always going to be of interest to two nations in particular: India and China. With the recent political unrest and resignation of President Mohamad Nasheed in early February under what is being termed a coup, the situation in the Maldives is looking grave. India is keen to facilitate political reconciliation in the country and to reestablish itself as Maldives’ best friend in the region, while China is waiting in the wings, ready to take advantage of any opportunity the unrest presents.

Interestingly, at the same time as India is viewing both Pakistan and China as an increased threat, there are cooperative signs between these nations as well.

Analysis

Political Landscape of Maldives

Mohamed Nasheed is sometimes referred to as the ‘Godfather of the Arab Spring.’ He was a political activist and protested against the 30-year rule of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the Maldives. In 2008, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom stepped down after the country’s first free election, where Mohamed Nasheed assumed the presidency. Three years later and the once-lauded President has been forced to step down, he says at gun point, after weeks of violent protests against him.

The Maldivian people grew disenchanted with their President after allegations of continued corruption and failed promises for change. The final straw was when Mohamed Nasheed detained Abdulla Mohamed, Chief Justice of the criminal court. Protests began in earnest and weeks later Mohamed Nasheed was stepping down from his role, to be replaced by his Vice President Waheed Hassan. Waheed Hassan has since called his former president a dictator. The lessons for Arab countries in the after-phase of the Arab Spring are clear.

India And Maldives

While the happenings in the Maldives are perhaps considered a storm in a teacup on the global scale, they are of intense concern to India and China.

India has long courted favor in the Maldives, as much to have a strong presence in the Indian Ocean as to ward off China from doing the same. Indian interests were safeguarded under Nasheed, who confirmed an accord with India protecting Indian interests in the region when he stated while still in office: “We have always categorically stated that we do not want foreign powers, in particular the Chinese, interfering in the Indian Ocean.” The Indian government is so concerned with the instability in the region, that it has sent foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai to convene peace talks between the opposing parties in the Maldives.

Mathai has managed to bring the parties to agreement on early presidential elections, but has also come under fire for appearing to interfere in another country’s internal affairs. India is strongly denying this charge. For India, the crucial thing is to deny China a strong foothold in the country, and it will risk appearing to interfere to achieve this.

China And Maldives

Chinese ambitions in the Maldives stem from the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, a desire for Chinese ports and positions that extend from Port Sudan to Hong Kong. Already they have one port in the Maldives, but India’s close relationship with the Maldives has kept it from developing into more of a stronghold. Other ports in the String of Pearls include the Gwadar port in Pakistan, the Chittagong port in Bangladesh and the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka. India rightly fears the string tightening around its neck.

The Chinese vision for its sea lines in the Indian Ocean highlights the lack of grand strategy in evidence in India. There is certainly a defensive strategy to protect Indian interests, by partnering with Chinese rivals Japan and Vietnam, however there is little in the way of developmental strategy to counter the Chinese influence. India will likely have to partner with the US in the region to counterbalance the strong position of the Chinese. This could be why the US has recently deployed counter-terrorist operatives in India, as well as the Maldives, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Three of the countries are host to Chinese ports.

US Pacific commander Admiral Robert Willard told a congressional hearing on the subject that: “We are working very closely with India with regard to their counter-terrorism capabilities and in particular on the maritime domain but also government to government.” The particular threat Willard mentioned was Lashkar-e-Toiba (Let) based out of Pakistan.

Competition And Cooperation

Interestingly, at the same time as India is viewing both Pakistan and China as an increased threat, there are cooperative signs between these nations as well. Pakistan has just announced that trade with India will be normalized by the end of 2012. This will hopefully bring the trade between the two rivals from $2.7 billion per year to around $9 billion per year once all trade barriers are lifted.

At the same time, Indian military is gearing up to conduct one of its largest war games, less than 200 kilometers from Pakistani border in the Bikaner and Shri Ganganagar districts in Rajasthan. A few months earlier, the country conducted an exercise ‘Sudarshan Shakti’ in Pokharan. The exercise named Shoorveer or Brave Warrior will take place from March to May and will see the deployment of 20,000 troops and 200 Russian-made tanks. Indian Army spokesman colonel Jagdeep Dahiya has stated that the drill would be one of the largest maneuvers ever conducted, involving Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000, Jaguars and the AWACs.

“Battlefield transparency and operational plans based on real-time situational awareness will be
enhanced using intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) inputs from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, radars and satellites,” he added. Dahiya dismissed fears that the drills will heighten tensions with Pakistan, saying India informs Pakistan ahead of such large-scale exercises.

On the other hand, China and India have just launched their first ever maritime talks, with Indian External Affairs Minister S M Krishna promising that all of the ‘sticky’ issues between the countries were addressed: “Every possible issue that is raised whenever India-China dialogue takes place were raised and we have understood each other’s position and we have understood the perspective and we will continue to exchange these.”

While India and China, are doing the simultaneous dance of cooperation and competition, at present Indian influence in the Maldives looks to remain strong.

The post The India, China Vying For Influence In Maldives appeared first on Politact.

According to reports, Maoist leader Koteshwar Rao alias Kishenji was killed on Thursday evening in an encounter in the Praschim Medinipur district. Member of The Communist Party of India is believed to have been killed by police in a heavy exchange of fire in a forested area.

“A body was found with an AK-47 and a hearing aid beside. We suspect that the AK-47 was probably used by Kishenji, but cannot comment until the identification is complete,” said Director-General of Police Naparajit Mukherjee. Inspector-General (Western Range) Gangeshwar Singh said officials were waiting for confirmation of the identity of the body. Reports suggest Maoist Suchitra Mahato, wife of Sasadhar Mahato was also injured in the encounter.

Kishenji was responsible for leading Maoist operations in West Bengal’s Jangalmahal region. His death, if confirmed, would serve as an immense blow to the Maoist group.

The post Maoist Leader Kishenji Eliminated In West Bengal appeared first on Politact.

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Police in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka used batons to scatter demonstrators during a strike on Sunday against a gas exploration agreement with the American energy giant ConocoPhillips. Most schools, businesses and shops were shut down and just a few vehicles were seen on the roads. The strike was called by a left-wing citizens’ organization, which claims the agreement compromises the country’s interests. It isn’t uncommon for political parties in Bangladesh to call for strikes, but the shut down on Sunday was enforced by National Committee for Protection of Oil and Gas and Ports.

The post Bangladesh: Demonstrators Clash with Police during Strike appeared first on Politact.

Context
Bangladeshi police broke up furious demonstrators obstructing a main road in the capital city of Dhaka, against new laws giving equal property rights to women. Dozens were wounded and taken into custody as policemen used batons and tear gas. Businesses, offices and schools remained closed across Bangladesh in a countrywide strike ordered by Islamic parties. Though the country has a secular legal system, it abides by Sharia law in matters concerning inheritance that allow women to inherit only half as much as their brothers. But according to the new laws each child will inherit the same amount. Demonstrators say that the new laws go against the teachings of Quran.
 

The post Bangladeshi Police Disperse Demonstrations against Women Rights appeared first on Politact.

Context
Pakistan’s ubiquitous feelings of distrust have their origin in a general sense of insecurity. For one thing, Pakistan believes that India has never accepted its legitimacy as a nation; as proof, it cites India’s active support of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) independence in 1971. On the other hand, Afghanistan has always questioned the validity of the border separating it from Pakistan, the Durand Line. Because of this scarred legacy, Pakistan initiated its nuclear program, but as soon as it had the bomb, it feared that its adversaries were attempting to destabilize the country in order to justify taking it away. So the question arises: who wants to weaken Pakistan and is this threat mostly internal or external?

Analysis

This is the quandary facing the security apparatus of Pakistan, including the military. The following explanations have been offered:

1. The US desires to weaken Pakistan so as to prevent it from garnering any benefit from the Afghan conflict, if and when US decides to leave. Although Pakistan is a major ally, the US could repeat its course at the end of the Cold War and abandon Pakistan, once its objectives in Afghanistan are achieved with Pakistan’s help.In addition, rather than looking out for the interests of its ally, the US is working to place India, Pakistan’s enemy, in the driving seat in Afghanistan so as to counter the rise of China; the latter is a close, long-term strategic partner of Pakistan, which also has adversarial relations with India.To counter this perception and undo past mistakes, such as the “Pressler Amendment” of 1985, the Kerry-Lugar bill envisions a long-term strategic partnership with Pakistan and its people. The controversy developed when some of the provisions of the bill appeared to aim at weakening its powerful military, the very institution in Pakistan whose help the US needs to stabilize Afghanistan and rid the world of Al Qaeda. Thus the intentions of the US appear contradictory to Pakistan, while the US believes that the Pakistani military secretly aids the Taliban, which carries out attacks against coalition forces in Afghanistan. So it appears that the real goal of the Kerry-Lugar Bill is to correct the behavior of an ally.
2. The extremists and Jihadists have been attacking the Pakistani government because they believe it has departed from Islamic ideology by supporting the US, which is trying to occupy Afghanistan. These groups believe that the US is hostile to Muslims all over the world and through its alliance with Israel and India is determined to weaken Pakistan. Furthermore, the extremists believe that the corrupt and inept politicians of the country are ruling through an unjust and un-Islamic system with western aid and support, and this system needs to change to Shariah.

With US moral credibility damaged internationally, it is difficult to make its case to Muslims. At the same time, people recognize that the extremists have only brought death and destruction to Muslims, whose cause it supposedly champions.

On the other hand, the US drone attacks in the tribal areas of Pakistan are having both desirable and undesirable effects. They achieve their immediate objectives, but at the cost of potentially dangerous precedents and consequences. Not only are these attacks seen as a violation of national sovereignty, but they also appear to substantiate the claim that America is out to get Muslims. Furthermore, reports of the civilian deaths resulting from these attacks are fodder for the extremist’s recruiting efforts. The negative psychological effects of the drone attacks can be seen in angry media discussions of the provisions of the Kerry-Lugar bill.

In short, to the Pakistani public, countermeasures like the drone attacks appear to justify the extremist case against the US, helping to facilitate growing Anti-Americanism in Pakistan. That is why the nation’s government and military, while continuing to assist the US, does so discreetly and without fanfare. But when the extremists attack the country, it perceives yet another attempt to destabilize it.

Amidst the confusion, there are signs of a new public consensus which sees both the extremists and the west as trying to weaken Pakistan; this is reflected in the escalating anti-extremism and anti-Americanism pervading the country. So Pakistan appears to want to redefine its identity, while rejecting the readily available options.

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The post Pakistan Asks Who Wants to Weaken It, As Deadly Extremist Revenge Attacks Spread and Multiply appeared first on Politact.