Eight pro-democracy Shi’a activists have been sentenced to life in prison in Bahrain for “plotting to overthrow the government”, the official news agency said on Wednesday. They were amongst 21 opposition leaders tried by a special security tribunal. Others received up to 15 years in prison. Rallies were staged and roads were blocked by their supporters prior to the verdict. Bahrain’s mostly Shi’a demonstrators have been demanding political reforms and more civil rights for the Shi’a majority in the Sunni-ruled monarchy.

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Context
Following a rebuff from King Abdullah last month, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates met him in private on Wednesday to try and mend strained ties between the US and Saudi Arabia. Mr. Gates described his one-on-one meeting with the Saudi monarch as “extremely cordial”, but said that he didn’t raise with the ruler one of the most controversial issues dividing the two countries: Saudi Arabia’s decision to disregard President Obama and send forces into Bahrain to crush a revolt last month. Ties between the US and Saudi Arabia are at an all-time low since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. The two countries are at odds not only because of Saudi intervention in Bahrain but also because of President Obama’s support for protestors in Egypt rather than President Hosni Mubarak. After Mubarak’s ouster, Saudi Arabia cancelled trips to Riyadh by Gates and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, saying that the king wasn’t well.

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Context
Faced with political crisis at home, Bahraini Foreign Minister Shaikh Khaled Bin Ahmed Mohammad Al-Khalifa visited Pakistan on Tuesday. He had meetings with the President, Prime Minister, and officials of the armed forces. Both countries agreed to strengthen defense ties and boost bilateral trade and economic cooperation.

The foreign minister also brought a message for Pakistan’s leadership from Bahraini King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa, hoping Islamabad would stand firm on its “principled” stance on the situation in Bahrain. In the backdrop of unrest in Bahrain that has led to Saudi led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) intervention in the country, Pakistan has supported the ruling family there.

Earlier, Mr. Al-Khalifa visited India where he met Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and assured him the safety of over 350,000 Indian nationals on the Bahraini soil. The two officials also discussed issues of bilateral interest during the meeting.

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Context
Shiite opposition of Bahrain demanded on Wednesday that the Saudi-backed armed forces helping to crush demonstrations should leave the country instantly. The demand highlighted the sectarian aspect of the anti-government campaign in this tiny island kingdom, where Shiite majority is protesting for more freedom and rights against a Sunni monarch that has been ruling Bahrain for almost two centuries. Around 1,500 soldiers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf nations entered Bahrain a couple of weeks ago at the request of the Bahraini government.

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Meanwhile Foreign Office in Pakistan rejected the rumors that Bahrain has asked for military assistance from Pakistan. About 70,000 Pakistani’s reside in Bahrain.

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Context
The shifting sands in the Middle East are being felt most strongly in Iran. On the one hand Iran is encircled by the US, with very little in the way of geo-strategic options; on the other a covert channel of communication and cooperation may be on the cards between the US and Iran over stability in Afghanistan.

Analysis

The August drawdown of US combat troops in Iraq has inevitably shifted the focus of the US military to Afghanistan. While it is no secret that the US is by no means gone from Iraq, the symbolic withdrawal has freed up US strategists to channel energy into the embattled US position in the Afghan conflict. The country is expected to increase its presence in neighboring Pakistan as well, especially with the post-flood political morass and the distinct possibility of militant elements filling the power vacuums left in the flood ravaged country. The on-the-ground US presence in the region is actually quite formidable, something which has no-doubt been bothering the largest US antagonist in the region, Iran, and to no less extent China.

Iran faces sizeable US components on three of its major land borders of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. To counter Iran, the Gulf States of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar the UAE and Saudi Arabia have ordered arms worth $123 billion from the US. PoliTact has previously noted the new American strategy premised on building the capability of the partners, as oppose to itself getting involved in a direct confrontation. On top of this the American military presence in the Caspian Sea has been increasing and there has been talk of increased military cooperation between the US and Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Iran is effectively encircled.

Interestingly though at this point the encirclement is not overtly aggressive – there are definite passive aggressive tones, but the US is not showing signs of any immediate escalation. In fact it has been trying to open a route of dialogue and cooperation with Iran over stability in Afghanistan.

Whether the US has cleverly tried to engage Iran in Afghanistan to counter the claims of Afghanistan being Iran’s “security belt” or whether they are trying to find a diplomatic platform to engage with Iran one thing’s for sure; bring Iran in on Afghanistan under the umbrella of US cooperation and it will be a major turning point in US-Iran relations. If the US can pull this off they will effectively neutralize Afghanistan as a ‘buffer’ for Iran. It may however, be a strategy of keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

US has been flirting with the idea of bringing Iran on board for sometime now. In 2006 the Bush administration asked for Tehran to assist the US efforts in Iraq. When the US later spurned the helped they had asked for, the real opportunity was lost, and it became a sour point in the relationship between the US and Iran.

No one in Washington is under the illusion that this tactic will create a friend out of Iran but there is nevertheless hope that engagement and dialogue could soften the stark horizon of US interaction with Iran. Others are less optimistic and feel it is showing weakness on the US side; hardliners in Iran whole-heartedly agree.

Nonetheless, diplomacy is also about creating leverages. The talk of bringing Iran on board creates urgency for the Sunni stakeholders of the AfPak equation as well as the newly unfolding Middle East peace process.The recent incidences related to Shiite population of Bahrain and other Gulf countries, further add to this pressure.

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