Context

The debate continues about Israel’s intent and readiness to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities and what Iran would do if that was to occur. The narrative covering this debate has revolved around if Israel will hit Iran before the US November election. Recent coverage was more concentrated on the difference of opinion between President Netanyahu and President Obama over establishing clear-cut red lines for Iran. There are also doubts about if the military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities can completely destroy them. Reports indicate that even if the US and Israeli acted jointly, the program will likely be set back only by a couple of years.

In short, prior to the recent events in Libya, US remained reluctant to pursue an all-out military solution towards Iran’s nuclear program. However, since the killing of Chris Stevens, the optimistic view of the trajectory of Arab Spring in the US is giving way to the narrative Israel has promoted all along. Early signs indicate a change of US posture may be in the offing.

Analysis

Military Or Political Solution

Deciphering this ongoing deliberation reveals that Iran is not going to back down under the pressure of economic sanctions. Therefore, to Israel, it is obvious that there is no alternative to a military strike and covert operations that are already underway. Especially, when there is an alarm that Iran is fast approaching the point of no return in acquiring nuclear capability.

On the other hand, the US is not so sure that the military option is the only one available. Like in Iraq and Afghanistan, US likes to work on the political and military solutions in tandem. This approach has not worked out very well in both places. Nonetheless, the US has relied on economic sanctions, covert operations and diplomacy for the time being.

There is obviously the dynamics of Arab Spring to consider that has worked in the favor of US up to this point. With the spreading Arab revolt the balance of power in the Middle East is being altered to such an extent that ultimately, in combination with economic sanctions, Iran will be left without allies and depleted exchequer. And, this change in itself may convince the Iranians about the futility of its nuclear ambition. The parallel here is not much different than the example of Pakistan. The spreading war against extremists and its worsening economic woes have persuaded the country its time to change the nation’s security policies and ties with India.
However, recent events in North Africa, Middle East, including Afghanistan, are now pushing the US towards a rethink of its strategy. The protests that erupted in the aftermath of the anti-Islam video and the killing of the American ambassador in Libya have revealed alarming levels of anti-Americanism. On the other hand, the spreading green on blue attacks in Afghanistan presents a stark reflection of the collapse of approach there.

War On Terror And Arab Spring

For all intents and purposes, this year’s 9/11 anniversary marked the beginning of the next phase of the war on terror and Arab Spring, the two interconnected phenomena. It is worth mentioning that the recent protests around the Islamic world, and the reasons behind them, are not without historical precedence. During the Sepoy Rebellion of 1857 in the subcontinent, the underpinnings also involved cultural and religious miscalculations. The present mishandlings are already producing dire consequences in Afghanistan and more serious consequences are likely to follow. In a statement regarding the events of Libya, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was already making these connections with history when it praised ‘Omar al-Mukhtar’s descendants’ for the killing of the American ambassador.

The harsh tactics adopted in the first phase of the war against terror have gradually eaten up the credibility and space the despotic leaders of the region needed to remain in power. At the same time, moderate Islamist and nationalist are resurgent while the secular and liberal space have consistently shrunk. On the other hand, the US is in need of allies that retain some level of public support to implement the counterterrorism strategy. The challenge being, in the second phase of the campaign against extremists, in many places, such allies no longer exist or have no political space to operate.

The killing of the American ambassador and the initial ambivalence of the Egyptian and Tunisian authorities to control the protests have given credence to the Israeli claim that moderate Islamists, that came to power as a result of the Arab awakening, have a soft corner for the radical Islamists. Moreover, the extremists will eventually take over the moderates. If this really is the case, then that means extremist groups are indeed benefiting by the present flux and chaos in the region and by exploiting the direction of the uprisings.

The American Elections

The Republican Party is leading the charge to counter this and has blamed Obama for not fully supporting Israel. In an interview with Fox News Newt Gingrich commented, “I think we should have a total reassessment of our entire strategy for the region.”

Representing the threat perception of Israel, Gingrich went on to state the Middle East is heading for serious turmoil, “As these dictatorships collapse, you’re seeing more and more weapons get in the hands of extremists. The Israelis have a real fear… they may suddenly see Syrian chemical weapons being fired at them by Hezbollah in very substantial quantities.”
In a fund raising event in May, Mitt Romney had this to say about the two-state solution:

“So the only answer is to show them strength. American strength, American resolve, and the Palestinians will some day reach the point where they want peace more than we’re trying to force peace on them. Then it’s worth having the discussion. So until then, it’s just wistful thinking.”

A statement like these caused Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat to state last week that the Palestinian leadership is considering canceling the 1993 Oslo Accords all together.

The politicking of American elections and events in the Middle East appear to be moving US policy closer to the Israeli position, even with all the risks. There is a very real chance that Israel will act independently and the US will be dragged into the conflict, even when it does not want to.

On Saturday, US Senate cleared a non-binding resolution on Iran by a vote of 90 to 1. The resolution emphasizes the US must do all it can to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Some observers think the bill clears the US moving towards war. Senator Rand Paul, the only one dissenting, argued, “This means that right now before anything happens, you’ve decided that you will preemptively go to war,” Paul commented.

The post US, Israeli Strategy On Iran Converging appeared first on Politact.

Context

Iran and India are at an interesting point in their relationship. The US sanctions against Iranian oil imports has forced countries to take sides, and at present, it looks like India may be deciding to side with Iran, or more to the point, with its oil-hungry economy. This is a complication for the development of India’s relationship with the US and Israel, who want to bring India closer to them as a counterbalance to China, Pakistan and ultimately Iran as well.

Analysis

The aftermath of the new round of US sanctions on Iran is taking its toll on many countries, but is being particularly felt in Asia. While China was clear from the start that it would continue to purchase oil from Iran, most countries in the region including Japan, South Korea and India, were largely expected to fall in line with the US demands and end their oil trade with Iran. India has surprised many onlookers by not only seeming to ignore the new sanctions, but to press ahead and increase its purchases from Iran. India has also reportedly reached an agreement over long-standing payment issues with Iran, with 45 percent of payments to be made in Indian Rupees.

This is an interesting move by India, given that they have been playing to the US for the past couple of years and it looked as though they were falling squarely into the US camp. This was perfect for US interests, as India provided a bulwark against China, Pakistan and to some extent Iran in the region.
US interests also suffered another setback as India decided to buy 126-French-made Rafale combat aircraft. The French aviation company Dassault snapped up the $11 billion deal. India has dropped the airplanes deals with Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin of the United States, and from Russian and Swedish makers, due to technical reasons.

Israel has publicly pleaded for India to heed to the sanctions, which it says are crucial to crippling Iran’s nuclear program. However the refusal of some of Iran’s largest oil trading partners to comply with the sanctions may have pushed Israel into commenting that “unlike in the past, there is widespread global understanding that if the sanctions don’t achieve their goal of halting Iran’s nuclear weapons program, there will arise the need of weighing an operation.” Israel’s Defense minister, Ehud Barak told said in an address to the annual Herzliya Conference at the Interdisciplinary Center academic campus just north of Tel Aviv.

This comes as Israeli Military’s intelligence head Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi stated that “Iran has over four tones of enriched materials and nearly 100 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium that’s enough for four bombs. It [nuclear bomb] will be done… within one year.”

Reports also surfaced in the US that US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta had warned that Israel is getting reading to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, before they enter a so-called “immunity zone” where nuclear material and facilities are transferred to secret locations. That India has decided to buck the sanctions and continue to trade with Iran at this time, is very upsetting for the US and Israel.

India has found itself in the same position as many countries, balancing the wishes of the US against its own national interest. This balancing act is an uncomfortable one and quite an unnatural one at that, because a nation state’s first priorities must be to pursue its national interest. For India, fueling growth and keeping the economy powered has superseded the need to bandwagon with the superpower.
It is this dynamics that is also causing China and Russia to refuse to comply with the unilateral sanctions. Japan and South Korea are also unhappy about the sanctions, but are trying to work with the US to secure a waiver without having to significantly reduce oil import from Iran.

India’s position, as well as that of Pakistan’s, is looking increasingly closer to that of China and Russia, as it also tries to maintain a non-interference status on issues like Syria and the unrest in the wider Middle East. Although India and Pakistan supported the latest UN Security Council resolution condemning President Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown in Syria, it does not reflect a change in their stated position. Chinese media has picked up on the possibility of support between these countries in trying to secure their energy needs. A senior editor for the China Daily published a scathing review of the US and Western dealings with Iran, and noted that in order for countries to secure their oil imports from Iran, it would take cooperation. “China and India (and hopefully, Japan and South Korea) have to join hands and send out a clear signal to the West that they don’t want another war in the Middle East. And they can count on Russia’s support for that,” the article concluded. This illustrates a clear hope that more countries will join together, not so much to support Iran, but to support their collective national interests of ready supplies of fuel. It also highlights that China (or at least some elements in China) fully expect a US or Israeli strike on Iran if the situation deteriorates.

In all likelihood Japan and South Korea will take pains to secure an agreement or a waiver with the US over the sanctions. However even without these countries, the absence of China, Russian and now India may be enough to curtail the sanction’s effect, and may be enough to make a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities by the US or Israel that much closer.

The post The Iranian Factor In India’s Ties With US And Israel appeared first on Politact.

Moshe Ya’alon, Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs, called on the international community to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, using all necessary means, including a military action, the Associated Press said on Monday. The remarks came during an interview to a Russian news service ahead of a trip to Moscow. Ya’alon stressed that a nuclear Iran will pose a threat not only to Israel but also to the “entire civilized world”.

The post Ya’alon: Military Action May Be Necessary To Prevent Iran Nukes appeared first on Politact.

Saudi officials have warned the Unites States that if Iran’s first nuclear reactor is activated at Bushehr in May according to plan, there is a high possibility that it will explode and the whole Gulf region will face a nuclear crisis on the scale of the tragedy at Japan’s Fukushima plant and expose millions of people to radiation contamination. The matter was raised during recent US-Saudi talks- first with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on 4th April and again on 11th April with Tom Donilon, US National Security Adviser.

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