By Arif Ansar

Context

Since the removal of Imran Khan’s government in April 2022 through a no confidence vote, Pakistan’s interim government finally held the election of the 16th National Parliament on February 8^th. This was significantly past the constitutional requirement to conduct balloting three months after the government had been dissolved. According to one estimate, nearly 60 million voters participated to elect 266 representatives for the National Parliament and 749 representatives for the four provincial assemblies.

However, the election results are widely seen to be rigged, raising doubts about the legitimacy of the whole process. This has further exacerbated political polarization, as the events before and after the elections appear to be particularly designed for keeping Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) out of power. The circumstances align well with what is informally known as the London Plan.

The controversial nature of Pakistan’s recent elections has also raised international concerns, particularly from the US, UK, and European Union, prompting calls for investigations into reported irregularities. In the US alone, bipartisan lawmakers, including Democrats and Republicans, have urged President Joe Biden not to recognize Pakistan’s election results until allegations of irregularities are thoroughly investigated.

Though Pakistan’s government has defended the conduct of elections as fair and free and downplayed the concerns of the international community.

The Evolving Political Landscape

PTI

According to reports, the PTI-backed independents secured 93 seats. However, PTI claims victory in over 180 seats, alleging that the total vote counts were tampered with by the Election Commission. This has prevented it from attaining a simple majority and forming the government. Challenging the elections results, PTI has resorted to legal action against the alleged rigging, flooding Pakistan’s courts with petitions seeking judicial intervention as a last resort.

As political maneuvering intensifies in the quest for power, army chief Gen. Munir has urged politicians to form a unified government, stressing that the nation needs “stable hands and a healing touch to move on from the politics of anarchy and polarization.” In response to the army chief’s remarks, PTI leadership has emphasized the release of political prisoners, including Imran Khan, and the acceptance of its mandate to rule as crucial steps towards national reconciliation.

PTI leader Imran Khan has signaled a willingness to mend relations with the military establishment, asserting no ill-will towards any party while cautioning against allowing Nawaz Sharif to lead another coalition government. He has announced plans to form governments in the provinces of KPK and Punjab, as well as at the federal level, having secured a lead in the elections.

PML-N and PPP

In contrast, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), with 75 and 54 seats respectively, has chosen to accept the election results. Despite engaging in heated exchanges and running vengeful political campaigns against each other, both agree on the urgent need to move on, claiming that reconciliation is necessary to address the current political instability.

After much political wrangling and theatrics, PML-N and PPP announced forming a united coalition government on February 20, akin to their earlier Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) alliance government. However, their reluctance to compromise on key political demands has complicated the durability of such an alliance. Moreover, it’s not clear how they can formulate the government while the results of so many seats are controversial.

Future Government

According to the results that are known, not a single political party secured the simple majority of 169 seats required to form a government, making the formation of a coalition government inevitable.

Much depends on the actions of the PTI-backed independents. The process of wooing independents by the PML-N and PPP is underway, with at least four already expressing interest in joining these parties. The challenge for the PTI is twofold: to reclaim its lost mandate and to safeguard its candidates from shifting allegiances.

Should the PML-N form the government, as it did on February 20, the PTI has threatened to initiate country-wide agitation, sparking fears of a recurrence of the riots witnessed on May 9th last year. At the same time, PTI also appear to be settling in to take on the strong opposition role. Meanwhile, PTI has announced Alliance with Islamic Parties such as Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) and Muslim Wahdate-i-Muslimeen (MWM).

Dealing with Challenges

As PML-N and PPP announced an agreement to form the government – with Shahbaz Sharif nominated for the Prime Minister and Asif Ali Zardari for the President, it’s not clear how they plan to address the formidable economic, security, and political challenges. Pakistan will soon have to approach the IMF to enter in to a new program and manage the $25-$30 billion in annual external debt, which will require making a number of unpopular decisions. One thing is clear, without political stability there can be little headway on the economic front. Dismal economic prospects are sure to further polarize society, escalating ethnic fissures and finger pointing.

None of the political parties have provided a clear roadmap on how they will tackle the serious foreign policy issues. The nation is entangled in an acute great power rivalry in which China and Russia stand as strategic partners at one end of the pole, while US, Europe and India occupy the other pole. In this, the Gulf nation, which are the major financial backers of the last resort for Pakistan, are also swaying between the Great Powers.

Two of Pakistan’s neighbors Iran and archenemy India are not only involved in the Middle East but are players in the regional proxy war, which involves Afghanistan. This led to the recent unprecedented tit for tat strikes Iran and Pakistan launched at each other. This dynamics could easily pull in Pakistan to the intricate non-state actors playhouse of the Middle East.

The October 7 Hamas attack and the subsequent Israeli operation in Gaza has further complicated the international environment. Israeli offensive has brought larger scale human loss with close to 30,000 Palestinians dead, and destruction of Gaza. Any future ceasefire will be accompanied by rebuilding phase – likely to be led by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. On the other hand, the Ukraine conflict has consumed quite a bit of the European and American financial bandwidth – and this will have a direct impact on what kind of attention and assistance may be available for others.

As the election cycles heat up in the US, there are indications that what transpired in Pakistan could become a hot topic between the Democrats and Republicans, further eroding credence for the local set-up there.

Policy Implications

The domestic turmoil in Pakistan is directly connected to the great power rivalry presently playing out. The election results indicate the gradual shift in the societal balance in Pakistan towards the nationalist and conservative forces. As noted by PoliTact in 2014, the organic political alliance that would emerge from the changing ecosystem is between the nationalists and the conservatives of different colors – an outcome not seen favorably in the West.

Ironically, the campaign against extremism has played a significant role in altering the traditional societal balance. It resulted in the shrinking space for the liberals in the Islamic world, and the steady rise of the nationalists and conservatives. The nationalists and conservatives have become increasingly vocal on the supremacy of state sovereignty and noninterference of external players in other countries, a cause championed by China and Russia as well.

This poses serious implications; Western allies cannot hold on to power long while being oblivious to the popular feelings and worsening economic prospects. Their interests, and those of the West, are served better by accommodating the change in the societal balance as opposed to holding on to what is archaic and the customary.

PoliTact’s South Asia Fellow Naad-e-Ali Sulehria contributed to this article.

The post Pakistan Post Election Crisis, Great Power Rivalry, and Societal Imbalance appeared first on Politact.

Context

Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the Afghan Taliban character has been evolving and so are ties with Pakistan. The widely held apprehension that US exit will make Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) bolder is coming to fruition – as the number of TTP linked extremist attacks continue to rise in Pakistan with Baloch insurgency also simmering.

At the same time, there is a role reversal. While in the past US relied on Pakistan in dealing with matters related to the Afghan Taliban. Now, as Pakistan’s ties with Afghan Taliban deteriorate, it is resorting to seek US help to address the extremist menace emanating from Afghan soil. Pakistan’s Army Chief’s visit to the US reportedly was primarily to seek military cooperation to tackle the TTP threat. Conversely, the US emphasis is on economics and climate change.

There are a few significant grievances between Pakistan and Afghanistan. One, Pakistan has consistently demanded that Afghan Taliban deal sternly with TTP and Islamic State’s Khorasan branch (IS-K) operating from Afghanistan. US shares concerns related to IS-K but not necessarily on TTP. Although, in the past, US has assisted Pakistan in going after high value TTP targets through drone strikes. Pakistan’s decision to deport illegal Afghan refugees has added stress to the bilateral ties.

On the other hand, US seems to be increasingly satisfied with Afghan Taliban for pressure on IS-K, which makes them less likely to act against its erstwhile ally TTP. This creates a dilemma for Pakistan. Additionally, US intelligence indicates that Al Qaeda (AQ) has been weakened to the point of extinction. Pakistan is thus looking for convergences in its ties with the US to confront TTP by exerting pressure on Afghan Taliban.

Since the removal of Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government in 2022, the government policy has shifted away from negotiating with TTP and towards using force – and has thus sought more counter-terrorism assistance. Ironically, the former Prime Minister had refused any military cooperation with the US in dealing with the extremist threat in Afghanistan – and some analysts pointed to this as the main reason for his removal – in addition to ill-timed trip to Russia to meet Putin.

Analysis

Zia-ul-Haq, Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, and Iranian Revolution

Since the Afghan Jihad of the 80s, Pakistan’s security perils have largely been linked to the situation of Afghanistan and periodic military escalation with India. While traditionally political unanimity has existed when it comes to handling India, the case of Afghanistan has led to political polarization and instability in the country – and has impacted its foreign relations in ways that have proved extremely detrimental to the social and economic wellbeing of the nation in the long run.

For example, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 provided the military ruler Zia-ul-Haq an opportunity to reset his utility for the West. He had earlier removed the political government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in 1977, who was later hanged in 1979. The Iranian Revolution and fall of Pahlavi dynasty, also in 1979, had greatly unnerved the US – and Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan fit well with the Domino Theory. These dramatic events in 1979 assisted Zia-ul-Haq to reset ties with the West.

The removal of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, with which US had cordial ties, represented a shift in the Middle East balance of power. Zia capitalized on the changing winds. With help from the Gulf Arabs and the US, Sunni proxies were created to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan – they also served as an ideological counterweight to the Shiite revolutionaries in Iran. This process also linked Pakistan more closely to the Arabs.

The Iranian revolution also initiated a chain of events in the Middle East. Fearing the repercussions on Iraq’s ethnic mix, Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980, a war that lasted until 1988. He also wanted to establish Iraq as the primary force in the Arab world. Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990, leading to the First Gulf War in 1991. Pakistan sided with the Gulf Arabs and even deployed forces on the Saudi border with Iraq to prevent any invasion.

It was on September 11, 2001, when the Sunni-non state actors that fought in Afghanistan against the Soviets launched a horrendous attack on American soil – and thus started the Global War Against Terrorism (GWOT) that sucked in Pakistan once again.

Pervez Musharraf, 9/11, and Global War Against Terror (GWOT)

9/11 provided an opportunity to another military ruler in Pakistan to gain international credibility and reset ties with the US. In the aftermath of the 1999 short and bloody Kargil conflict, Gen Pervez Musharraf had overthrown the civilian government in October 1999, removing Nawaz Sharif from power. For this US had slapped sanctions, which were in addition to the ones imposed on Pakistan and India in the aftermath of 1998 nuclear tests. For Musharraf’s support in Afghanistan after 9/11, Bush lifted all sanctions on Pakistan in October 2001.

Prior to 9/11, Pakistan had been one of the few nations, including UAE and Saudi Arabia, that recognized the Taliban government. As the campaign against terrorism progressed, Pakistan focused its efforts more or Al Qaeda and less on Afghan Taliban – and was accused of providing safe havens for them.

While US got distracted by going into Iraq again in 2003 (Second Gulf War), Bush administration mounted pressure on Pakistan to launch military operations in FATA and eliminate what it termed as safe havens. Pakistan moved nearly hundred thousand troops from the Indian border towards Afghanistan to conduct operation which led to internal dislocation of up to 5 million people. US also conducted thousands of drone strikes in FATA between 2004 and 2018 chasing extremist leaders hiding there.

Pakistan’s military operations in FATA, including the Lal Masjid operation in July 2007, accompanied by drone strikes, started to create an ominous backlash internally. It was unclear if the US drone strikes were occurring with Pakistan’s acquiescence – but it would publicly protest the strikes vehemently as violation of its sovereignty.

Many high value targets were hit in Pakistan as extremist reprisal spread, with thousands of civilian and soldiers killed and maimed. According to Dawn newspaper, Pakistan’s economic loss in the war against terror was a figure around $126.79 billion. The security and political turmoil, including the civil-military divide, was reflected by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007.

The internal politics of Pakistan had gotten fully intertwined with the support it was providing to the US in the war against extremism, and more importantly, at what cost. While Musharraf had become gradually unpopular, and US grievances with him grew, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto demonstrated that this was a battle for Pakistan’s survival too. The Mumbai Attack in November 2008 created fresh headaches for Pakistan on how it was dealing with what are called good and bad extremists.

General Asim Munir, Post US Withdrawal Afghanistan, and US Pakistan Relations

As Pakistan’s new Amry Chief Asif Munir visits US to reset ties, the above historical context needs to be considered. While the nation’s position to counter threat from TTP has been shifting between a negotiated solution to a military one, with different global powers moving in and out of Afghanistan overtime, Pakistan’s own political polarization is swelling, economic prospects dwindling, and social fiber in tatters. Ukraine may have been imagined as the new Cold War that could help reset ties with the US. However, the events unfolding in Gaza have checked that conceptualization. Meanwhile, China facilitated Saudi, Iran detente has provided temporary relief and prevent ethnic tensions from boiling.

In retrospect, 1979 was a tumultuous year – the demise of western supported regime in Iran initiated the transfer of the regional balance of power towards the Sunni Gulf Arabs – with Saddam the casualty in the long run. The collapse of Soviet Union and end of Cold War by the beginning of 90s meant that the US had won the great power rivalry – with Pakistan’s pivotal role. However, in October 1990, US imposed sanctions in the form of Pressler Amendment. The amendment made military and economic aid to Pakistan conditional on it not acquiring nuclear weapons – and for US administration to certify that to be true. US apparently did not want Pakistan to benefit from their shared victory in Afghanistan.

Stalemate ensued as in-fighting between former mujahadeen leaders and factions in Afghanistan continued in the aftermath of Soviet withdrawal. The affairs finally came to climax as Taliban took control of almost entire Afghanistan. The popular Taliban opposition leader, Ahmad Shah Mehsud, was assassinated two days before 9/11 attack. If 9/11 had not occurred, Pakistan and Gulf State supported Taliban would have potentially extended influence further into Central Asia.

What can be expected in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, especially when Pakistan has built strategic ties with China, and India has become a strong American ally towards the ambition of countering global rival China? Moreover, unlike Soviet withdrawal in late 80s, following US departure, Taliban are in complete control of Afghanistan, with other players engaging directly with them. Burning bridges with Afghanistan will come at Pakistan’s own expense – and prevent it from gaining any mileage for the immense cost in blood and treasure the nation has paid over almost half a century. While the nation cannot delink from Afghanistan, patient diplomacy is the only way forward to engage and resolve the thorny issues.

The post Convergences In US-Pakistan Ties And Afghanistan appeared first on Politact.

Context
Amid signs that diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are improving, border security troops from the two neighboring countries exchanged fire on Wednesday in the tribal district of South Waziristan. Up to 12 Afghan National Army soldiers and one member of the Pakistani paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC) died in the clash which took place near the Angoor Adda region of the district. At least three FC servicemen and eight civilians were also injured. The border clash is worrying as it comes amid deteriorating US-Pakistan ties. Moreover, Islamabad has reportedly advised Kabul to isolate itself from Washington and seek enhanced ties with countries like China- reports that Pakistan denies.

The post Border Clash Jeopardizes Pak-Afghan Peace Initiatives appeared first on Politact.

Context
A suicide attacker stormed into Afghan Defense Ministry leaving two people dead and seven others wounded on Monday, according to Defense Ministry spokesperson Zahir Azimi. However, he added that the bomber was killed by security officials inside the building before blowing himself up. Another official of the defense ministry said that the attacker was wearing Afghan army uniform. The situation is now said to be under control. The attack has occurred after the weekend talks between senior Afghanistan and Pakistan leadership to speed up the reconciliation process with Taliban.

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