By Arif Ansar

Context

The international conferences where leading global thinkers and shapers gather to share insights on the present political, technological, and economic challenges, are crucial to observe. Their thoughts processes help to build a narrative and assist the rest to gauge the future direction.

The Davos World Economic Forum, held every year in late January, is just such a venue where political, intellectual, and corporate leaders share their knowledge. This year, it was reflective of the contradictions that the world presently confronts as it relates to the governance structures, the economic and political models, addressing climate change, and harnessing emerging technological advances in a mutually beneficial manner.

In some respects, these kinds of topics are lately been talked about at many other such conferences, but the irony in Davos could not have been starker this year – when the European Union and Europe itself is in the grips of Brexit related confusion. And when the strong influence behind globalization, represented by the US, is adrift, and under increasing nationalist and isolationist policies.

The hard debates took place at the various Davos forums on the corporate role in the present economic woes, and responsibility towards tacking inequality, fixing the climate, and creating more jobs as Artificial intelligence (AI) and Big Data alter how the business will be conducted in the future. The dilemma remains that under globalization, the nation-state model, and state sovereignty, takes more of a back seat – and this is exactly what has resulted in the populist responses such as ‘American First’ or ‘Brexit’.

1. Globalization and Reforms

Consider the statements of Angela Merkel, one of the Keynote speakers at the Davos this year. She emphasized Germany’s commitment to globalization and multilateralism, and reiterated the risks. “There is a new approach that we see in the world today, an approach that harbors doubts as to the validity of the international system,” she stated.

Indirectly countering Trump’s ‘America First’ mantra she added: “I think (that when it comes to) our national interests — I think we should always understand them in such a way that we always remember that others also have their own vested interests, factor them in, and then shape a win-win situation that will guide us in international politics.”

The Chinese perspective was reflected in one of the discussions titled ‘When Global Order Fails’ by Fang Xinghai, who is the Vice Chairman of China’s Securities Regulatory Commission. Xinghai commented that West should not make China a scapegoat for what is not working in the Western democratic system and that reforms were needed to fix those issues, which have nothing to do with China.

Commenting on why US worries about China, Xinghai replied that the US should be open in accepting polities that operate differently, because if they do not, it would mean excluding China, Russia, and pretty soon India as well. Adam Tooze, who is a historian from Columbia University, further elaborated the response. He pointed out to the evolution of Indian democracy under Prime Minister Modi, which does not resemble democratic norms especially when considering its Muslim population.

2. Emerging Technologies and Digital Consensus

The technological upheaval is another aspect of the global flux. Like globalization, the Internet and Internet of Things (IOT), Big Data and AI, work best when there are no hindrances in the way. However, this has great risks and fears associated with it, when knowledge and technology (automation) is replacing traditional sources of labor. It could become, if not already, a new factor that exasperates global inequality.

Quoting McKinsey’s Global Institute (MGI) report ‘Globalization in Transition’, the Managing Partner Kevin Sneader wrote on the company blog:

“…for the first time, the emerging markets now make 50 percent of the counterparts in global trade. While these markets are perhaps more optimistic about growth than many developed economies are, they face their own challenges as knowledge and technology replace labor as the critical sources of arbitrage in global value chains.”

Therefore, the globalists desire a new form of technological consensus to shape the digital future – that balances the state sovereignty with in the globalized structure. Or as Elizabeth Heineman writes in The Conversation:

“Merkel’s – and Europe’s – quandary is this: how to move forward in the digital age when Europe’s contribution is to seek balance between state power, individual rights and the dynamism of capitalism. Achieving that balance – achieving any balance – means slowing things down. It means philosophizing.” Achieving this equilibrium is what Angela Merkel terms Social Market Economy

The Japanese Prime Minister reflected his sentiments on the subject:

“I call on all of us to rebuild trust toward the system for international trade. That should be a system that is fair, transparent, and effective in protecting IP (intellectual property) and also in such areas as e-commerce and government procurement,” Abe stated in his speech.

While there are many international agreements to address security and trade related matters there are no such agreements when it comes to the digital world especially in the realm of Cyber threats, AI and Big Data etc. This is a cause of enormous concern for nations that are competing in these emerging technologies. 

3. Geopolitics and Economics

The tussles of the global balance of power between the emerging and established powers is obviously not just restricted to security affairs, it also includes trade and technology domains. The ongoing economic tensions between the US and China are having a ripple effect downstream with negative impact on globalization.

The primary concern being that by learning and tweaking the laissez-faire system, China is exploiting it and negatively impacting the American economic outlook, as it relates to protection of Intellectual Property and by forced Technology Transfers. Moreover, there is a pressure on China to address the trade imbalances by opening its market more. Obviously if the Chinese economy continues to strengthen at the cost of others, it will also reflect in its global defense posture and influence. 

The other Asian nations are increasingly concerned as US appears to be withdrawing from international regimes, and this they think would only benefit the Chinese. According to them, the best way for the US to address its apprehensions is by staying in the system and by negotiating. Moreover, the debates also continue on the best way to engage each other and address differences.

Multilateral approaches, as adopted by the US in the past, complicate the negotiations. Conversely, the Chinese have benefited by engaging in bilateral tracts, however, in bilateral negotiations the stronger party usually benefits. Nonetheless, US is increasingly moving towards adopting bilateral talks for engaging and negotiating.

Then there are concerns that a Cold War is developing between China and the US and what that would mean for the international system. Will this result in to a new alignment – with other nations being pushed in to one block or the other. A comparison is also being made with the nature of Cold War between the then Soviet Union and US. That Cold War was primarily in the defense and security realm, and not as much in trade, as is the case between US and China now. And just because of this difference, it may not mature in to a full fledge Cold War.

Many of the above dimensions were discussed in an event titled ‘The Geopolitical Agenda,’ moderated by Vali Nasr. The panel recognized that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is changing the geopolitical landscape and in ten years the results will be obvious.

In this context, the Pathfinder and Dow Martin Groups held discussions related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, moderated by the Chairman Pathfinder Group, Ikram Sehgal. The speakers, which included the Chief Minister of Baluchistan province Jam Kamal Khan, promoted investment opportunities in the mineral rich, and strategically located Baluchistan province of Pakistan. The province borders Iran and Afghanistan, where not only the Pakistan-India rivalry is playing out, but also the tussles of the global balance of power.

Conclusion

In many of the discussions referred above, the common worry remained how the US-China trade rivalry is going to unfold and how it will impact different businesses and free trade. However, one could see some confusion in grasping the connection between the economic and security domains.

The optimists thought that because the nature of competition is mainly economic, these differences could be managed. But they miss the point that is raising concern for the US: globalization has made China tremendously stronger very quickly, and this would also translate in to defense and technological wherewithal. After all, the nation-state system, and national interests, still exist and cannot be wished away. 

China preaches engagement and negotiations, and stands ready to address the trade imbalances and grievances, while admitting to the benefits of the liberal trade system. Will this be enough to save globalization remains to be seen. After all, trade wars are linked to the change in the global balance of power. What is particularly worrisome is that US no longer sees eye to eye on these matters with its traditional European allies. Moreover, the Europeans do not have consensus amongst themselves either. At no time since World War II, has the division between the globalists and the nationalists, so acute.

The post Davos 2019, EU, And US-China Trade War appeared first on Politact.

A comprehensive media discussion on Voice of America (Urdu Service) program Round Table, hosted by Qamar Abbas Jafri, on December 12, 2016. The focus was on the key foreign and domestic challenges likely to be confronted by President-elect Donald Trump.

The discussion panel included:

Dr. Tayyab Mahmud – Director of the Center for Global Justice, Seattle University
Arif Ansar – Chief Analyst, PoliTact
Ali Imran – Independent Analyst
Lord Nazir Ahmed – Member British House of Lords
Dr. Atta Mohammad – Paris University

Subcribe to get strategic insights from this discussion.

The following represent a list of foreign and domestic challenges likely to be faced by President-elect Trump.

• The US-Russia relations and aggressive Russian efforts to influence US politics through information and cyber warfare. The conclusions reached by the US intelligence community and Trump’s response.
• The US-China relations and the future on ‘One-China’ policy.
• The growing China-Russia security and economic cooperation and what it means for the US.
• The challenges in the way of Trump’s US-Russia reset, especially the Iran nuclear deal.
• The future of US Pivot to Asia/Rebalancing policy.
• Trump’s outlook towards Europe and NATO, especially in the aftermath of Brexit and the risk of other nations following the same path.
• The impact of Trump’s untraditional operational style and diverse business interests.
• The influence of people selected for key cabinet positions.
• The new approach to fight extremists and policy towards Middle East and South Asia. How will the growing Russian involvement in facilitating the Afghan peace rhyme with its ties with India? More importantly, how will the emerging position of China and Russia on extremism impact the wider campaign against terrorism? And how does this correlate with the vision of the important security and defense related nominations made by President-elect Trump?
• The future of Globalization and major free trade pacts, such as Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
• The prospects of reforms within the US political system and parties.
• Dealing with perceived American weakness and emboldened Putin.

The discussion panel included:

Dr. Tayyab Mahmud – Director of the Center for Global Justice, Seattle University
Arif Ansar – Chief Analyst, PoliTact
Ali Imran – Independent Analyst
Lord Nazir Ahmed – Member British House of Lords
Dr. Atta Mohammad – Paris University

Listen To The Program

Strategic Insights

To get our detailed strategic insight contact info@politact.com

The post President-elect Trump’s Major Domestic, Foreign Challenges appeared first on Politact.

A media discussion on Voice of America (Urdu Service) on August 29, 2016. The focus of the program was on increasing awareness of Cyber threats and the use of social media by extremists. Morover to understand privacy and legal dimensions of Cyberspace.

The increasing focus on Cybersecurity is to protect the Cyberspace from the threats posed by State and Non-State Actors to infrastructure, computer data and networks, and financial institutions etc.

The panel included:

Arif Ansar – Chief Analyst, PoliTact
Farhan Hussein – Founder of ‘Bites for All’
Tariq J Qureshi – Meena Group Global
Sangeen Shah – Kings College London
Amjad Malik – Barrister

http://www.urduvoa.com/a/3464345.html

The post Understanding Cyber Threats And Extremism appeared first on Politact.

Context

The fast pace of scientific and technological breakthroughs has enabled mankind to surmount many serious obstacles of the day, be it in the domain of medicine, space, information technology, or engineering. At the same time, these leaps have also brought to the fore unique implications. For example, cloning has presented special opportunities but has also raised many ethical dilemmas. Moreover, researchers predict the increased use of Internet to find information is overtime changing the way our brain operates, with memory function on the decline.

The full magnitude of the societal impact being caused by the information and communication revolution is not clearly known but it has opened up a Pandora box of issues. The information technology revolution is also posing unique security threats in the form of cyber crimes and cyber warfare. Self-help guides on how to construct Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are easily accessible on YouTube for non-state actors and individuals to utilize.

Many claim the Arab Spring may not have bloomed the way it did if it was not due to the facilitation offered by the Social Media tools. It pointed out to the divide between virtual and physical reality, and it was the virtual reality that appeared to have influenced the ground reality. In essence, the cross-pollination of free flowing information has created serious consequences for existing structures of governance, while threatening the status quo in many places of the world.

On one level, questions are being raised about what laws and conventions apply to different risks and challenges introduced by new technologies, such as the drones and robotics. On the other hand, there are hurdles of how to make policy in an unpredictable environment and fast moving change. Most seriously, when so much is uncertain, how to make decisions. Inadvertently, the focus has shifted to deal with the immediate constant crisis, at the cost of long-term planning and strategy.

But how does this global transformation apply to the region of South Asia and Middle East. It appears that the leaders of these regions dedicate most of the their attention on distracting the masses from the real challenges and not on educating them. This in turn becomes their strongest weakness. As oppose to working on trends and understanding the underlying causes, the focus is on the outcome of these patterns.

The lofty goals of spreading health, education, and economic opportunities, only work under stable law and order situation. If the security threats from state and non-state actors continue to dominate the national landscape, all other domains will suffer and disorder will spread. In fact, it can be argued that preoccupation with political and security risks may have resulted in the very situation that is confronted today in these regions. Meanwhile, a new kind of non-state threat has been added to the list: the climate change, or the risk posed by nature.

These pressures have made governance even harder, when the citizens are increasingly empowered to question their governments. Moreover, when governments fail to administer and as extremism spreads, the chances of a state failing grows even further. In this environment, the western capitals are increasingly worried about a whole array of political, economic, security and technological threats posed by these regions. From the western perspective, many parts of the world are likely to be unable to cope with the fast moving technologically driven change. To protect their interests, they have to be ahead of the curve to mitigate the risks.

In the era of financial recession, agility to respond is more and more the buzzword in the western strategic policy making circles. The threats are quadrupling and this requires dealing simultaneously with state and non-state actors, while the resources to prepare for these risks are drying up. At the same time, many western strategic thinkers are pondering if the goal of aspiring stability as even attainable in such uncertain times. Perhaps, it is wiser to get used to the constant flux and uncertainty, while managing change and the accompanied anxiety, as best as possible.

Former US sectary of state Madeleine Albright recently conceptualized this debate as a distinction between being objective or subjective. There is growing realization and alarm that the present governance structures, institutions, and policies, which most nations have in place, are not fit, or are moving too slow, to deal with the impediments.

Renowned American strategist and former secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, commented at the inception of Asia Society’s Policy Institute (ASPI) in April that the world needs fresh conceptual frameworks to identify underlying problems, analyze them, and develop solutions. Associated with this concern was a discussion about the availability of conceptual contexts to understand world affairs and where it may be heading. For example, he stated, there is a difference of opinion on what triggered Arab Spring and its future direction. And if there are no mechanisms in place to identify problems and risks, understanding and solving them will become even more difficult.

Widely available communication tools have enabled and empowered individuals while creating new sources of influence. Although the application of hard power has persisted, the soft power is increasingly at play as well. With the rise of non-state actors and technological advances, a debate has emerged about when and against whom should a state apply different tools of its economic, political and military power, and what does that imply for international law and state sovereignty.

Conclusion

The very scientific and technological advances that leapfrogged the human civilization are also on the other hand becoming the sources of chaos, by making affairs unmanageable and changing the very norms under which the present world operates. While the risks created by humans may be manageable, more worrisome are the threats emerging from nature, which may ultimately provide the true black swan event. And even behind climate change, human tinkering is involved.

At the same time, the spirit of human adventurism cannot be tempered down. The nations that have the best ideas, accompanied by smart utilization of resources to explore them and solve real problems, will have the advantage; to not only shape the emerging world but also to formulate the rules that govern it. This realization is further fueling the race amongst competing powers to acquire cutting edge technological knowhow, whether by hook or crook. The ones left behind will once again be relegated to complain, adapt or perish. The battle is between status quo and change that is inevitable, and the ones that are able to master the art of transformation will no doubt lead and win.

The post Framing And Dealing With Future Challenges appeared first on Politact.

Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, deputy head of Iran’s Security Forces Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced Tehran’s plans to set up its first cyber command for security forces in order to respond to soft warfare against the country. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Jazayeri said comprehensive studies had already been conducted on the cyber command and the results would soon be submitted to the country’s security forces. He further said that the Islamic Republic should be equipped with modern technology and tools when it comes to soft warfare. In Dec. 2010, Iran’s senior army commander, Brig. Gen. Muhammad Baqeri, had warned of the soft war being waged against Tehran, saying enemies have started targeting the self-confidence of the Iranians.

The post Iranian Security Forces to Establish “Cyber Command” appeared first on Politact.

With the arrival of Zardari, Iran’s influence on Pakistan has been increasing as well; most illustrated by the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project. Traditionally, improvement of Pakistan’s relations with Iran comes at the expense of relations with Saudi Arabia. The most popular politician of Pakistan presently is the opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, who is also favored by the Saudi’s. How this dynamic will play-out as United States attempts its regional approach in the region, is yet to be seen.

The major foreign stakeholders in Iran are keeping their fingers crossed. The challenge is that no one knows for sure the true balance of the public sentiment in Iran. The media has played so many games that it has ended up in a trap i.e., confusion in assessing the true public opinion towards the reformers and the hardliners.

POLITACT predicts that the hardliners will be able survive the protests, but what we are seeing is the beginning of something that will play-out in the long-term. The pressure these demonstrators have built will force an incremental change in the power structure of the Iranian political institutions. These changes will not necessarily alter Iranian foreign policy or minimize its nuclear ambitions, but will make the nation more open to foreign influences. How Iran balances these influences while achieving its own interests is a test that the country has historically not handled well.

The post The Unfolding Iranian Crisis and Foreign Meddling appeared first on Politact.